China in October 1996

[chico20854]

We're getting close to starting the wargaming of the conventional phase of the war, but we have one major unknown - the state of the war in China. We've used Webstral's The Storm in Germany, which leaves off in the winter of 1995-1996. We're starting in October 1996 with German reunification, but obviously the state of the war in China is going to have a big effect on Soviet actions.

So let me here your ideas on the state of the Chinese Army (types of units, numbers, equipment holdings) and where you think the front lines run as a result of the operations between the end of 1995 and October 1996! (I have a good picture of the Pact organization & equipment at this point, but am really just getting started on the PLA orbat and equipment holdings). Assume a more or less canon v1 timeline, modified solely by Webstral's work...

[Targan]

China and the USSR had a nasty little border war during the 60s didn't they Maybe that would be a good starting point for looking at battle lines. There must be maps available that show where the major battles of that conflict occurred.

[General Pain]

Sino-Soviet Border Conflict of the 60s

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

[fightingflamingo]

I think canon & Web's work portrays a substantially more intense conflict that the 1969 war, which really was a large skirmish. Web & canon, speak of large areas of Manchuria under Soviet occupation. An early engagements may have resembled the 1969 conflict, but rapidly escalated. By 1996 large areas of Manchuria would be under Soviet Occupation, possibly Shenyang under seige with some PLA forces in the pocket, along with large amounts of peoples militia.
Soviet forces would have to deploy some of their troops in the rear, as well as KGB Border Guard Mobile Groups to suppress insurgent activities of Chinese Peoples Militia.
the Air situation over Manchura would be dominated by the Red Airforce, with the remaining Chinese Air Assets concentrated on defending the local airspace above ports & remaining intact industrial centers producing war material for the PLA. Additionally, the PLAAF might move it's nuclear capable aircraft (or a portion there of) as far south as possible to protect against Soviet counter air missions, possibly as far south as Hainan.

[Jason Weiser]

Ok,
The way I see it is this...the 1996 Spring offensive is aimed at pocketing and reducing Harbin, as well as inflicting a massive defeat on the PLA to force them to the table. Soviet airborne drops are to seize bridges and a vital pass via the Sungari river to allow Soviet tank spearheads to exploit South and West to take
Baicheng and Changchun some 140-odd miles away. With that, the new front line can be consolidated and Harbin reduced at the Red Army's leisure...

Needless to say, nothing goes according to plan. The airdrops are cut to pieces, and the Red Army barely advances 20 miles in the teeth of an improved Chinese defense, including "new model" brigades (the first two to be exact), the "New AVG" contesting Soviet air superiority, and the widespread use of improved ATGM and ICM by the Chinese. Also, a massive uprising by Chinese militia occurs in the Soviet rear. While the Soviets put it down, they are forced into some pretty draconian means to do it.

Comments

[Raellus]

Apart from the specificity of the place names you cited, that seems to mirror canon pretty closely, Jason. Sounds reasonable to me.

[Webstral]

I'm inclined to see a somewhat greater advance for the Soviets, but overall I like your interpretation of events, Jason. I do see Harbin in Soviet hands prior to the mid-1997 strategic withdrawal, but that's a quibble for another occasion. I especially like the idea that the Chinese prepare for a massive rear-area operation to coincide with the Pact offensive. This is very much in keeping with Chinese thinking and their strong suit in this war.

I see the 1996 Pact offensive as providing a sort of repeat of the WW1 problem. China prepares massive defenses in depth all along the practical avenues of advance. Although it is impossible for China to cover the entire front with trenches the way that the combatants on the Western Front did, a new equivalent is possible. Well-sited ATGM (am I overusing this phrase) with interlocking fields of fire go a long way towards creating a solid front of defenses for the Chinese. Mines and water obstacles constrain mechanized attack to a degree that was unthinkable during the 1995 action. Although the Soviets vigorously seek a breakthrough, what they get is much more reminiscent of Verdun. Both sides suffer horrible losses, but the Chinese manage to prevent a breakthrough.

China loses huge amounts of men and materiel halting the Pact offensive something the official v1 chronology doesn't mention. Pact forces have the initiative, firepower, and weight of numbers (in chosen areas) required to force a breakthrough if the Chinese strictly rely on static defense. The Soviets know this, so they continue to throw men and machines in to the fight even as their leading echelons bog down. Under the sheer weight of firepower and numbers, the Pact forces begin to crack the Chinese defenses at selected points. This is not maneuver warfare. It's nothing more than a straightforward slugging match.

The PLA has anticipated that even with sophisticated Western systems, the best they can do is canalize the Pact attackers and inflict heavy attrition. The keystone of the defense is the mobile reserves, which they move forward as needed. The reserves are needed frequently. In fact, by the time the Soviets call it quits, the PLA has committed three-quarters of its reserves. Losses have been nearly as high for the Chinese as they have been for the Pact forces. A conventional counterattack is out of the question. Consequently, for the rest of the summer Chinese operations focus on inflicting casualties on the Pact troops while establishing favorable conditions for an eventual counteroffensive. Army (corps) level operations are the largest seen during this time.

Why do the Chinese defend themselves so far forward, thus exposing themselves to such tremendous losses After all, the traditional Chinese method of defense has been to trade space for time. Now, though, the Chinese leadership feels that its collective neck is on the line. The Politburo has indebted China up to her eyeballs. The damage from the Soviet air offensive over the winter has barely begun to be repaired. Chinese prestige around the world hangs by a thread. The Politburo can survive having Beijing bombed into rubble from the air. They don't believe they can survive having Beijing occupied by Soviet troops. If the Soviets achieve a breakthrough in Manchuria or northwest of Beijing, the capital may very well be forfeit along with the lives of the Politburo. Therefore, the Chinese supreme leadership sacrifices hundreds of thousands of lives and untold treasure in a forward defense.

At least it works.

For the rest of the summer, China rebuilds. After blocking the Pact advance earlier in the year, China has some time. The PLA and the Politburo want to use the advantages China possesses, such as being on the defensive in their own country and a deep well of manpower, to best advantage. Weapons continue to come in from the West. Factories continue to retool and be constructed from scratch in the southern part of the country, where an increasingly capable PLAAF is capable of making Soviet air attacks too costly to contemplate. The Army continues to grow.

The Soviets are well aware of the Chinese intent. This is one reason why there is such a sense of urgency about getting more Pact troops to the Far East irrespective of readiness come Autumn 1996. The Kremlin feels that victory must be achieved soon if it is to be achieved at all.

The war in Europe obviously changes the whole game. On the surface, it might appear that this is China's opportunity to launch an offensive that might drive the Soviets out of the country. However, the Chinese leadership decides that the Soviets might withdraw on their own. If the Germans do well enough, the Soviets might throw in the towel in the Far East to concentrate resources in Europe. Accordingly, Chinese operations actually slacken.

Once the fighting spreads to Europe, American and European arms shipments to China virtually cease. Europeans and Americans alike hold their breath as they wait to see what will come of the German-Soviet contest. Beijing uses the halt in arms shipments to justify slowing the pace of Chinese operations.

At the end of November, the PLA steps up its activity dramatically. By this point, it is clear that the FRG is not going to win on its own. Few Pact units have been withdrawn from the Far East. Certain voices in the liberalizing PLA claim that if China had stepped up the pressure in October, the Soviets would have come under greater pressure. Fewer troops airlifted to Germany as a result of Chinese action might have resulted in a German victory, the critics claim. In the long run, a German victory might have been the key to removing Pact troops from China. Instead, the Soviets have established a new equilibrium, thanks to Chinese inactivity. The state security apparatus find itself unable to completely suppress such opinion.

By this point, the PLA is ready to employ new tactics on a large scale. The new tactics combine the action of light infantry with mechanized forces operating against semi-static defensive positions. Pact forces also have dug in all along the front in the Far East. Although the Pact possesses greater weight of mechanization and firepower, the PLA has markedly superior light infantry. The Chinese intend to precede offensive action with infiltration by light units equipped with machine guns, anti-tank weapons, and engineering equipment. Well-trained light fighters infiltrate the target zone in depth and in numbers, giving the PLA a superior tactical intelligence capability in the area. When the offensive begins, the light fighters attack targets throughout the enemy€™s position to a depth of ten kilometers or more. Forward observers call in accurate artillery strikes. Engineers demolish bridges and crater roads. Anti-armor ambushes delay the movement of reinforcements. Grenadiers knock out machine gun nests and bunkers covering the engineers assaults on defensive obstacles. In effect, the forward edge of the battle area is isolated through effective light infantry action, mimicking the Soviet tactic of vertical envelopment through infiltration.

The new tactics pose a particular problem for the Soviets. The enormity of the front and depth of occupied area makes it extremely difficult for Pact troops to defend themselves. Superior firepower and mobility are neutralized by the sheer area to be defended and Chinese skill at infiltration. Although detection of an upsurge in infiltration activity sometimes indicates preparation for a tactical or operational level action, by late 1996 the PLA has mastered using such activity for deception and misdirection. Pact efforts to counter Chinese infiltration in depth encounter the twin pillars of a relative shortage of manpower and skill among the Pact infantry and the traditional Soviet reluctance to allow junior leaders to exercise initiative. Although junior leaders in the Far East have far more freedom to operate than anywhere else in the Soviet sphere, the KGB continues to keep its hand on the leash of the average rifle platoon, company, or battalion commander. The Chinese, who are fighting for their lives, enjoy far greater freedom to exercise initiative.

Infiltration envelopment results in shallow breakthroughs for Chinese mechanized forces in localized actions. With infantry on the ground throughout the breakthrough area, the Chinese are well-appraised of the movement of Soviet forces in response to breakthroughs. Mines and anti-armor ambushes help create circumstances favorable to the Chinese attackers. Chinese mechanized units punch into the rear areas of defending divisions, inflicting enormous losses. At greater depth, guerillas and special operations troops attack key communications nodes to delay large-scale movements of relief forces.

However, the Soviets use the opportunity to attack Chinese mechanized forces in the open with air power. Pact fighter-bombers with stand-off munitions attack Chinese AFV and soft-skinned transport on the roads near the breakthroughs. The PLAAF seldom is able to establish air superiority for long over the contested zones. As a consequence, the Chinese infiltration envelopment tactics do not yield major breakthroughs or the creation of major crises for the Pact defenders. Incessant air attacks and long-range artillery attacks by Pact units serve to steal the momentum from Chinese mechanized units at the point of breakthrough. Typically, the Chinese attackers either withdraw after inflicting their damage or establish a new line of defense after a relatively shallow penetration of Pact lines.

In this fashion, the front lines in Manchuria became increasingly fluid, although in general they moved north. Occasionally, Pact forces would counterattack in great strength, driving through the hasty defenses of the Chinese and recapturing lost ground. On other occasions, Pact formations adjacent to the one infiltrated and overwhelmed would withdraw to better positions. The overall effect was a steady drain on the manpower and materiel of both sides. Unnervingly for the Soviets, the exchange rate became more and more even as the winter of 1996-1997 progressed.

Author's Note: That's about it for now. At some point, I changed tenses while writing. You guys are being subjected to a rough draft.


Webstral

[Raellus]

Resurrecting the Chinese Front

That was a good read, Web. I'm sorry that it took so long for me to rediscover this thread and comment. I've been thinking about the Chinese front recently and it's raised some questions.

Where did the fiercest, most strategically significant fighting take place Canon doesn't have much to say about this other than "northern Chinese industrial heartland", but that's about it. Obviously, the bulk of the fighting would take place in China's populous, industrialized northeast. But what about other regions The border between China and the former USSR is very long, especially if one assumes that Mongolia would/could not maintain any sort of meaningful neutrality. I find it odd that Mongolia isn't mentioned. Really, unlike the canonical descriptions of the fighting in the West, no place names in China are provided. We can safely assume that a lot of action takes place in NE China. What about its mountainous, desert northwestern hinterland Apparently, during the border skirmishes of the late 1960s, the Soviets were considering an invasion of Xinjiang in the hopes of inspiring its non-Chinese ethnic majorities into declaring independence and joining the USSR as a semi-autonomous SSR. So, certainly there'd be some fighting there. Because of the length of the front, I just don't see static, WWI-style trench warfare as being a viable tactic/strategy.

Would the PACT units sent east to fight the Chinese be grouped into a majority PACT corps or army or would they be spread among majority Soviet corps/armies I tend to think that it would be the latter, giving the Soviets more control of their erstwhile allies. I can see logic in both approaches but what would be most realistic and why

As to the course of the fighting in China, there are several clues in the canon (primarily in the v1.0 "Chronological Background"), but mostly it's left to the imagination.

"The Red Army enjoyed rapid initial success, and tank columns rolled deep into the northern Chinese industrial heartland." This suggests that Soviet armored mobility played well during the early fighting, probably because the Chinese chose to fight back, in kind, with their technologically obsolete, home-grown (though largely copied from earlier Soviet material) tank and mechanized forces.

Canon then says that the Soviet onslaught began to bog down as the Chinese rapidly called up its massive reserves and mobilized its large People's militia. It describes China as becoming, in effect, a meat grinder for both sides. I agree with Web's assessment/description of large scale Chinese infiltration tactics, given the size and structure of the PLA and its supporting People's Militia. I see the Chinese as losing most of their armored/mechanized forces early on as they try, futilely, to beat the Red Army at its own game. At that point, the Chinese can only fight back by throwing millions of lightly-equipped infantry at the Soviets, slowing them down while Chinese armor and air strength are rebuilt far from the front lines.

This strikes me as a sort of a role reversal for the Soviets, with the Red Army playing the Wehrmacht of July 1941, making massive initial gains against ill-prepared, poorly-led Chinese military forces, until Chinese numbers and manufacturing capacity, backed by Western "Neo Lend-Lease" aid, ground down the Soviet/PACT spearheads and began to overtake Soviet capacity to replace men and material. In this scenario, the Chinese would trade space for time, albeit begrudgingly. From what canon has to say, this strategy eventually bears fruit.

By the time the nukes start flying, the Chinese have been able to rebuild "mechanized columns" vaporized "in imagined pursuit" of retreating USSR/PACT forces.

That said, I am sure that there would be cities/regions that the Chinese would do everything in their power to hold on to, a-la Stalingrad. Where would this decisive turning point campaign take place

Clearly the Soviets/PACT weren't fighting in the East with their full strength, as the Chinese were. This also mirrors the Germany v. USSR dynamic of WWII. The Soviets/PACT have to keep significant forces in Eastern Europe, as the Politburo still considered NATO to be an existential threat to the Soviet Union.

What about the naval war between the USSR and China In the T2K v1.0 timeline, the Chinese navy would have been no match for the Red Fleet. I see the Soviets destroying the PLN pretty quickly, then attempting to blockade Chinese ports to prevent the arrival of Western aid. It's not mentioned in canon, but I am sure that this would have escalated tension between the USSR and the West, especially when Red Fleet subs start sinking non-Chinese flagged merchantmen, as would certainly occur at least a few times before the war expanded to Europe.

I'm going to take another look at the Soviet Vehicle Guide for clues regarding the fighting on the Chinese Front. Aside from those already mentioned, are there other canonical sources worth taking a look at Specifically, is anyone aware of any canonical source that identifies the non-Soviet PACT units sent to China and where they operated Are there any Challenge articles on the Chinese Front

Anyway, I'm interested in reading your thoughts on the Chinese front.

[Rainbow Six]

I'm going to take another look at the Soviet Vehicle Guide for clues regarding the fighting on the Chinese Front. Aside from those already mentioned, are there other canonical sources worth taking a look at Specifically, is anyone aware of any canonical source that identifies the non-Soviet PACT units sent to China and where they operated Are there any Challenge articles on the Chinese Front

Rae, I'm not certain on this but I think that the V2 Soviet Vehicle Guide identifies the non Soviet units and gives their current location / strength as of Summer 2000. Someone who has a copy (I don't) should be able to confirm and maybe post the relevant info.

[Draq]

Except for any unaccounted challenge articles, I think the Sino-Soviet War, like so many other parts of the Twilight war, will have to be written here on this forum. I've read a lot of the fan created stuff here, and if I didn't know any better, i d think it was canon. Some of you guys know the material down the the syntax and spelling errors. There's a piece someone here wrote about the units the soviets created from captured/defected Chinese soldiers. I have it on my laptop at home. Now its not a full breakdown of the entire conflict, but it is a great place to start. Also makes me wonder about Korea and Japan. Also on Paul's site, at the end of the description and history for weapons and vehicles it will also list any deviant info in regards to the war. Like Japan selling weapons the the Philippines, for example. His own little flavor text if you will.

[Raellus]

@Rainbow6: I didn't know that there was a v2 Soviet Vehicle Guide. I'll have to look into that. Hopefully, someone here can point me in the right direction.

@Draq: Perhaps, someday. If I were to do such a thing, I would want to keep it as close to v1.0 canon as possible, so whatever we can dig up to that end will be helpful.

I read through the blurbs for all of the Soviet units listed as being in the Far East (as of July 2000). Several were listed as destroyed during the Chinese counterattack/counteroffensive in 1995. Others were listed as being destroyed during the Soviet withdrawal in 1997. A spring 1996 offensive was also mentioned.

Several formations were listed as being in Manchuria during/after the fall of China. Several others were listed as being moved to Mongolia during that time. The only cities listed specifically were Peking and Harbin.

So, for those 2+ years of intense warfare in China, there's not a lot in canon to go on. From the Soviet POV, it looks like things started off really well, quickly went to shit, stabilized, got a bit better in the spring of '96, got a lot worse (when the war starts in Germany), and then pretty much ended when they nuked the holy hell out of China. After that, it looks like the Soviets maintained tenuous control over at least part of Manchuria, and occupied at least a part of Mongolia. China, apparently, descends into anarchy and warlordism as central party control is shattered (presumably by the heavy nuking). Basically, China in late '96 is like Poland, only four years sooner.

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[swaghauler]

Soviet Unit Dispositions Per Soviet Combat Vehicle Guide

Here are the unit dispositions for Western Siberia, China, and North Korea per the version 2 Soviet Combat Vehicle Guide. The following abbreviations apply:

TD= Tank Division
MRD= Motorized Rifle Division (Mechanized for the Polish unit)
AAB= Air Assault Brigade
IDRD= Internal Defense Rifle Division
AMB= Air Mobile Brigade


WESTERN SIBERIA:

2nd Army: Siberia.

31st MRD. 3000 men
70th MRD. 200 men
78th MRD. 1000 men, 3 T64s
342nd MRD. 200 men

156th MRD (marauder). 4000 men


FAR EASTERN TVD:

1st Far Eastern Front: Manchuria.

98th AAB. 300 men
50th AMB. 200 men

39th Soviet Army: Tsitsihar, Manchuria.

23rd MRD (Tsitsihar, Manchuria). 2000 men, 6 T64s
100th IDRD (Tsitsihar, Manchuria). 2000 men


36th Soviet Army: Manchuria.

49th TD. 2000 men
6th TD. 4000 men, 16 T72s, 20 T80s
46th IDRD (Harbin, Manchuria). 2000 men, 2 T64s

5th Soviet Army: Manchuria.

3rd TD. 500 men, 2 T80s
29th IDRD. 500 men, 2 T74s
79th MRD. 3000 men, 12 tanks (various makes)
71th MRD. 3000 men, 15 T72s
4th (Polish) MRD. 1000 men, 3 T55s

Lost or Rogue Units: Manchuria

139th MRD (missing). 300 men, 1 T72
141st MRD (Marauder). 200 men
148th MRD (missing). 200 men
153rd IDRD (marauder). 100 men


2ND FAR EASTERN FRONT:

17th Soviet Army: Mongolia.

11th TD. 1000 men, 8 T72s
34th MRD. 4000 men, 36 T72s
56th MRD. 4000 men, 32 T74s
91st MRD. 200 men


YALU FRONT: North Korea.

203rd AAB. 200 men

35th Soviet Army: Yalu Penninsula.

173rd MRD. 1000 men, 2 T74s
194th MRD. 200 men, 1 T80
38th IDRD. 200 men, 8 T64s

Those are the units in or near China.


Swag.

[Raellus]

Thanks, Swag. I'll compare those to the ones given in the v1 SVG- I'm predicting that there's probably quite a bit of overlap. I take it that no PACT units are listed for the Far East theater

[RN7]

To add the Swaghauler's list.

Siberian Front
2nd Soviet Army
31st Motorised Rifle Division. 3,000 men (Barnaul, Siberia) * Marauder
70th Motorised Rifle Division. 200 men (Tomsk, Siberia)
78th Motorised Rifle Division. 1,000 men, 3x T-64 (Asino, Siberia)
342nd Motorised Rifle Division. 200 men (Siberia)

15th Soviet Army
73rd Internal Defence Division. 3,000 men (Kansk, Siberia)
102nd Internal Defence Division. 3,000 men (Siberia)
116th Motorised Rifle Division. 600 men (Krasnoyarsk, Siberia)
118th Motorised Rifle Division. 2,000 men (Krasnoyarsk, Siberia)

1st Japanese Front: Sakhalin/Kurile Islands
128th Air Assault Brigade. 600 men (Kurile Islands)
28th Soviet Army
50th Guards Motorised Rifle Division. 2,000 men, 12x T-72 (Kurile Islands)
101st Guards Motorised Rifle Division. 1,000 men (Sakhalin)
104th Motorised Rifle Division. 3,000 men, 15x T-74 (Sakhalin)


Warsaw Pact Forces
East German 9th Tank Division. Destroyed in Shenyang in 1996
East German 11th Motorised Rifle Division. Destroyed in Shenyang in 1996
Czech 3rd Motorised Rifle Division. Destroyed in Sverdlovsk in 1996 (from Czechoslovak Vehicle Guide) * attached to Soviet 17th Army
Bulgarian 5th Tank Group. 300 men (Cheremkhovo, Siberia) * attached to Soviet 17th Army
Polish 4th Motorised Rifle Division. 1,000 men, 3x T-55 (Manchuria) * attached to Soviet 5th Army

[Raellus]

Thanks, RN7. Do those also come from the v2 SVG or do you have another source

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