LAV-75; Stingray; M8 AGS

[Raellus]

Leg reiterates a couple of really good points.

First of all, producing a current-gen tank like the M1A1 takes a lot of skill, resources, and money. It's not like WWII were a Ford automotive factory could be relatively easily converted to producing M4 Shermans, and its assembly lines staffed with former autoworkers or relatively inexperienced "Rosie the Riveter" types. The engine technology in the M4 was similar to existing tractors and trucks and the most hi-tech components were the simple gun sights.

Now compare that with the Abrams. It's gas turbine engine is a lot more complex than a tractor or truck engine. It's "Chobam" [sic] composite armor is much more difficult to make than molded steel armor. It's gun systems are incredibly complex. All of this also requires highly skilled labor to produce and assemble.

So, best case scenario, it's going to take months just to get the "extra" M1 factories up and running. Are they already up by '96, making M1s for China I don't think so. I'm not sure the Chinese could afford many full-priced Abrams and I don't think the U.S. gov would be willing to subsidize the sales (think Lend-Lease). Then there's the political implications of providing a nation-at-war with current-gen weapons sytems. There could be the perception in the administration that this could constitute a causus beli in the eyes of the USSR, dragging the U.S. into the war. For these reasons, I think less expensive, less complex tanks like the Stingray, LAV-75/LAV-75A1, and or M8 AGS are all more likely options. So, it's going to be a while before additional M1 factories are set up and running at full capacity. By then, the TDM pretty much makes the whole issue moot.

Lastly, there's the question of cost. I've mentioned this already in the Defense of the Red Army thread a few weeks back, but even a relatively robust economy like the U.S.'s (at least in the mid-'90s) is going to have a helluva time sustaining maximum production rates for hi-tech systems like the M1A2, F22, JTF, Seawolf, etc. They are just too expensive and difficult to produce. WWII levels of production are simply unsustainable with modern weapon systems. Production-wise, the Soviets would be in a much better position with their comparitively more simple tanks.

But hey, that's just my take on the matter. It's totally up to others whether they want to pump it up the numbers for their T2KU. More power to ya.

[kato13]

I agree that given the standard T2k timeline those numbers would be impossible to achieve. Even if you throw all the resources possible at it. One of my favorite quotes related to that concept is "Nine women can't make a baby in a month". But the alternate history buff in me likes to see how far back you need to go and how you could get there. Are they tremendously optimistic, absolutely, but I tried to apply the same optimism to the USSR (by discovering massive gold, diamond and oil reserves) in the scenarios where I just wanted to see what two titans at their maximum possible capabilities would do against each other. In my case this really does apply more to wargaming (TWW and Harpoon series) than to T2k but since there is quite a bit of crossover in the underlying data, it seems appropriate to discuss here.

[Dog 6]

"Nine women can't make a baby in a month". love that.

[chico20854]

Would you be willing to post a reference for this level of production I've read that peace-time production was more like 30 tanks per month, or 360 per annum. I know it seems picky, but 150 Abrams is 150 Abrams.

1080 a year from both plants combined.

That and other weapons production rates are at
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/62xx/doc6...21b-Entire.pdf

The "maximum economic production rate" represents making full use of the production machinery. Higher rates are possible with an expansion of industrial plant. Whether that is possible in a T2k context is debatable - there are a host of issues with trying to start up new production capacity. There's a lot on this issue if you dig a little on google - when the US shut down new tank production in the 90s there was a lot of concern on what would be needed to reactivate a cold production line.

One of the bottlenecks (can't find the reference offhand) is that the DU armor production facility turned out no more than 25 sets of armor a month, so only 300 of the 1080 tanks produced per year have the HA armor set.

[Dog 6]

1080 a year from both plants combined.

That and other weapons production rates are at
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/62xx/doc6...21b-Entire.pdf

The "maximum economic production rate" represents making full use of the production machinery. Higher rates are possible with an expansion of industrial plant. Whether that is possible in a T2k context is debatable - there are a host of issues with trying to start up new production capacity. There's a lot on this issue if you dig a little on google - when the US shut down new tank production in the 90s there was a lot of concern on what would be needed to reactivate a cold production line.

One of the bottlenecks (can't find the reference offhand) is that the DU armor production facility turned out no more than 25 sets of armor a month, so only 300 of the 1080 tanks produced per year have the HA armor set.

WOW thanks!

looks like I'll have to build more plants.

[Legbreaker]

looks like I'll have to build more plants.

Be interesting to see how you intend to deal with all the issues that would require - cost, materials, skilled labour, transportation, and above all, time.

[Dog 6]

Be interesting to see how you intend to deal with all the issues that would require - cost, materials, skilled labor, transportation, and above all, time.

LOL me 2.

cost is the only issue I see.

[Graebarde]

LOL me 2.

cost is the only issue I see.

I think a bigger factor to new construction is TIME. The time it takes to BUILD the new facility. From the time the decision is made, the location selected, construction of the buildings and related infastructure to support the facility. Two years would be fast I think, and if the decision was made too late, the bombs will make it moot.

Of course if you use v1 timeline, the cold war never ended. SO there would be a possability of continued production and perhaps increased number of plants. Still not sure why in the general context however as there was not the rush to do it until the spontanious war started by the Germans.

[Raellus]

I think a bigger factor to new construction is TIME. The time it takes to BUILD the new facility. From the time the decision is made, the location selected, construction of the buildings and related infastructure to support the facility. Two years would be fast I think, and if the decision was made too late, the bombs will make it moot.

Of course if you use v1 timeline, the cold war never ended. SO there would be a possability of continued production and perhaps increased number of plants. Still not sure why in the general context however as there was not the rush to do it until the spontanious war started by the Germans.

Agreed. And don't discount the time it would take to train new factory employees. Once again, I don't see a production increase to support the Chinese so more than maybe one new plant likely wouldn't become a priority until the Germans make their move. And then, as you mentioned, it would take a while before any additional plants were up and running at full capacity.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think a bigger factor to new construction is TIME. The time it takes to BUILD the new facility. From the time the decision is made, the location selected, construction of the buildings and related infastructure to support the facility. Two years would be fast I think, and if the decision was made too late, the bombs will make it moot.

I can agree with that -- IIRC, in World War 2 they took the P-51 from the drawing board to a production-level prototype in 68 days. Try that with even a HMMWV-type vehicle today -- you'll be sorely disappointed. Equipment is just more complicated these days.

[Dog 6]

I can agree with that -- IIRC, in World War 2 they took the P-51 from the drawing board to a production-level prototype in 68 days. Try that with even a HMMWV-type vehicle today -- you'll be sorely disappointed. Equipment is just more complicated these days.

guess I'll have to start building them in the 80's some how. probably have to fudge the money for them too.

oh and btw pmulcahy11b why no SA-11 on your website

[kato13]

oh and btw pmulcahy11b why no SA-11 on your website

Paul acknowledged your first mention of this. With 1000s of items something is bound to fall through the cracks. Just a note this is a perfect thing for a PM as it is really not related to this thread (and was mentioned elsewhere).

[Dog 6]

Paul acknowledged your first mention of this. With 1000s of items something is bound to fall through the cracks. Just a note this is a perfect thing for a PM as it is really not related to this thread (and was mentioned elsewhere).

he did Hmmm must have missed it . my bad.

[stilleto69]

Ah, but remember when it comes to the Government "Who cares how much it's going to cost, think of all the jobs it will create."

I mean if you really want to look at it the government would just pass an Appropriation Bill, and worry about the 'cost' later. In their eyes the increased weapon production means jobs in their community "Bringing home the Pork".

[Dog 6]

Ah, but remember when it comes to the Government "Who cares how much it's going to cost, think of all the jobs it will create."

I mean if you really want to look at it the government would just pass an Appropriation Bill, and worry about the 'cost' later. In their eyes the increased weapon production means jobs in their community "Bringing home the Pork".

very good point.