Yet another Alternative TW2K Timeline

[sglancy12]

A lot of nasty situations could be expected regarding to the relationship between former Spanish citizens and those who have born in North Africa.

As North Africa melts down, particularly Algeria and Egypt, the Mediterranean is going to be overwhelmed by a combination of "boat people" and pirates, the aquatic version of refugees and marauders. The Mediterranean is going to look a lot like it did during early middle ages, where Saracen pirates did what the Vikings did to the Baltic and Northern Europe.

Even where the refugees don't turn to raiding, people in un-nuked countries like France are going to get nervous about too many people "swamping" the lifeboat. Then things are going to get ugly and racist. France after the Twilight War is likely to look a lot like the UK did in the movie Children on Men. Refugees would be regularly rounded up and placed in internment camps... unless they have a specific skill set the state needs.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[sglancy12]

... and based on what you fellas have said, I'm thinking that in my alternative TW2K timeline Portugal will hang tough with NATO and be rewarded by having their joint use naval and air bases nuked. A half-dozen strikes and Portugal would be seriously fucked.

Which isn't to say that Spain wouldn't be seriously fucked too what with the world economy and world trade wrecked, the importation of fossil fuels derailed, their next door neighbors nuked, and refugees are stressing the resources that remain in Spain. But unlike Portugal, there weren't any direct nuke strikes, no serious fallout, no out of control fires in urban centers and all the other consequences of 100-500Kton airbursts.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Mohoender]

It's strange (and sad) to verify my ignorance about Portugal, given our geographical position.

That must come from History matters As you are Catalan you aren't very much concerned by these but Portuguese and Spanish are much like Irish and English.

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

I definitely agree and assume than Spain is much as it is described in canon: "Its central government is a shamble, now represented by roving bands of Guardia Civil and military units."

I don't buy that statement entirely for Portugal for several reasons:
- GNR are not Guardia Civil but they are closer to the french Gendarmerie.
- Each portuguese regiment was (and somehow remain) attached to its garrison city. In case of chaos, Portuguese units in Porto would be faithful to that city and the surrounding areas. It would be similar for every city: Braga, Coimbra, Evora...

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets). Several regiments were stationed in Porto but the nuking of the refinery would also wipe out most of the industrial port. What facility would remain are unable to accomodate anything bigger than an Aviso or a small Frigate. There is no true air base in Porto and if the airport was run partly by the air force (G-91R were stationed there), its facilities will never make it a primary target. The base was never opened to F-16s and is now closed.
It has one of the shortest airway of Europe and only very well trained pilots can land there. In fact, qualification must be the same than that for Madeira and the old Hong Kong airport. It also has the simplest radar equipments and it is closed one third of the time. Each time you have fog on it, the airport is closed (1 day out of 3) as it is not equipped with the proper tools.

Other strategic bases do exist indeed but they are all in the south and mostly around Lisbon. Sintra would definitely be a target (you'll find the peacetime portuguese HQ there). Montijo could also be targeted as it is the main transport base but again it is only a few miles away from Lisbon. Sad, I would not be able to go there and watch corridas any more (they are the most beautiful).

The last two targets would be Monte Real (on the coast halfway between Lisbon and Porto) and Beja. For Beja I don't believe it would be nuked because it is right in the middle of the communist region of Alentejo. It would, however, be the center of heavy fighting between military and guerrilas.

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunitions (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

[sglancy12]

sglancy I don't wan't to contest your point (It is yours) but with Lisbon and the refinery in Porto I almost covered all my bases (outside the Azores and Madeira which can become other targets).

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree with your assessments about Porto and Lisbon. Porto's facilities sound like they would all be wound up by a mid-range nuke: the port, the refinery and the airport would all be severely damaged by a single airburst. And Lisbon's got so many facilities in the area that it sounds like one MIRV dropping four or five 100K weapons over the area would pretty wipe out the NATO facilities and the central government's command and control.

I do have some more questions for you:

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships Is it just a port or is there a naval base

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Still, the North would escape almost untouched. It is a very mountainous region and it would have some strong point for survival. Several mines on the Douro river can provide what is needed to manufacture ammunition (+tungsten for trade). Again, the Douro region can easily be turned to producing energy for the entire area (oil and alcohol in large quantities) plus tools in every village. In addition, Villa Nova de Gaia could be turned to energy production in no time.

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Mohoender]

I don't think we are in disagreement about what would happen to Portugal during a Soviet nuclear attack. I just don't have enough information at my end to speculate on which targets in Portugal would be targeted.

I agree and that's why I only list one target in the North. There is of course a few Dams on the Douro river but nothing to justify a nuke.

The main differences between Porto and Lisbon lay in the cities layout.
- Lisbon is located on the Tage river and it is wide open. It is also a fairly flat area with a few low hills. If hit by a MIRV nothing will stop the blast. All facilities are located both on the Atlantic and on the Tage which is very large.
- Porto is on the Douro river and the region is not as flat. The refinery and the modern harbour are located to the north and, if the refinery is hit, the modern harbour will be destroyed as well. The modern quarters and the upper parts of the city will also see extensive damages while the modern building on thesouthern bank will suffer some damage as well. As I expect only a limited strike on the city, I count that the old city will be relatively shielded as it is located on both side of the river, at the bottom of two high cliffs. Even the eiffel bridge could survive. The airport, however (on the south bank), will survive and will certainly be turned into the main base for what survive of the airforce. The only other airport of some importance being at Villa Real and Braga.

1) Is Porto used by NATO ships Is it just a port or is there a naval base

2) Where are the Portuguese naval bases

At Porto you'll find nothing more than a few patrol ship (mainly police and custom). The main naval base is and always was at Lisbon. If the modern harbour at Porto survive, it could be of use but I doubt it does.

3) What are the critical targets in Monte Real and Beja Sintra is the military HQ, Montijo is a transport base (do you mean that it's a rail transport hub), but what's in Monte Real and Beja that's work a nuke

Monte Real is the fighter base while Beja is the training and naval patrol base. For Montijo, it is the main airlift base.

I don't think the old men in the Kremlin will give a damn about any Portuguese leftists in the blast radius around Beja. If Beja is worth nuking, then it's gonna catch a nuke. On the other hand, I do like the idea that there could still be European leftist groups fighting against what's left of the central government. During the war, these groups would have organized civil disobedience, protests, the avoiding of conscription and in the most extreme cases acts of domestic terrorism as part of political campaigns against the war effort. After the nukes and the general slide into chaos, there's no reason why the more communist elements (those that envision a time for armed struggle) wouldn't try to organize for genuine revolution... or if not a genuine revolution then a warlord-style cantonment where they call each other "comrade" and steal all the farmers' crops for "redistribution."

Today you would be right but at the time of T2K it would be an entirely different matter. I would have expected these guys to retain several weapon caches. In addition, they are far from being simple leftist and they are true diehard communist in the old meaning. Don't forget that they took over the Portuguese revolution only 20 years before and they had very strong ties with Moscow. They were only countered by the return of Mario Suarez. At last, all the archives of Salazar's regime have disapeared and they are strong rumors that they have been transfered to Moscow. I agree with you on what they would establish over the South.

I also presume that the north of Portugal has a fairly low population density too. I like the idea of civilization retreating to the fastness of the mountains to regroup. Of course, their biggest problem will be getting over-run by refugees fleeing all the chaos, fallout, and panic in the south of the country.

You presume in the wrong way. Portugal's population is about 10 million with the most populated area being Lisbon and its surrounding targets (3.5 Million). These will almost be entirely gone (at least 75% casualties) with 80% of the country's industrial capacity.

The second most populated area is Porto with roughly 2 Million. There, you can expect a good 1 million casualty with more damage to the industrial network. However, the wine business at Villa Nova de Gaia will be turned to energy production and the Douro river can be used as a good bloodline. Hard road communication will not be a problem for those living there. In 1986 you needed 4h to go from Porto to the wine producing region only 80 miles away. In 1995 that time was down to 2h30. Most vehicles will be donkeys, mules, old Mercedes, Bedford and Toyotas. You can even expect the train to be still running between Porto and the Alto Douro.

What I count as being the Northern region is composed of 6 districts (Aveiro, Braga, Bragana, Viana de Castello, Villa Real and Viseu) plus that of Porto. Outside Porto they represent 2.5 million people with the most fertile area. In fact the only region of Portugal that can sustain itself in term of food and water.

What remain of the country would, then, represent only 2 million people with the South being the least populated. As a result, the districts bearing the weight of refugees would be more these at the center (Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Guarda, Portalegre and Santarem).

A last thing will make a difference. The regions I counted in the north are considered to be the heart of Portugal and Braga is it's capital city by heart (the Portuguese reconquesta started from there, from Villa Real and Lamego). People living there are tough by our standards (even more so at the time of T2K) as many were used to live with limited electricity and water. In addition, they don't like people from the South and I have no doubt that they would not hesitate to turn them back at gun point. During the revolution, communists took over most of the country but they were never able to achieve much control over the North.

The North represents 40% of the pre-war population and it would get 60-70% of the post strike survivors.

[Kellhound]

The only places on the Iberian peninsula I imagine getting nuked are Gibraltar and any NATO bases still in use. Of course, I'm imagining the Spanish taking a very hard line neutral position on the war, perhaps totally withdrawing from NATO and forcing a withdraw from the airbases, because they can afford to.

Some soviet documents declassified in the 90's showed we had a few "secondary targets" in our country. From naval and air bases to civilian airports and harbors, to refineries (Tarragona was higher than some bigger ones in other European countries, since it had also a harbor and other chemical plants close by) and shipyards (Galicia).
Even in case of extreme neutrality, only a couple small tac-nukes are needed to avoid these resources to fall in enemy hands.

I agree that the Basques would definitely resist a move to have forced conscription.

In this country, most cases of forced conscription have ended in open riots and street battles, and armed forces taking the streets.

-The incorporation of Spanish Galicia to Portugal would depend of the relative damaged suffered by the two countries in the used timeline. If Spain is untouched by nukes, I think it would not happen. Though Galicia has some nationalist movement, it has not the same "colour" that in Catalonia or in the Basque Country. They will remain (if possible) faithful to Spain. I must add the importance of the Galician naval shipyards for Spain. Anyway I will ask a Galician friend his opinion about the subject in our next roleplaying session. It would be interesting.

Knowing them, it's more likely to have Portugal joining Galicia
Ok, this is only half a joke, not suitable for, or understandable by foreigners.

I definitely agree and assume than Spain is much as it is described in canon: "Its central government is a shamble, now represented by roving bands of Guardia Civil and military units."

I agree mostly with this.
But only until a foreign soldier (any foreign soldier) tried to occupy any ground or impose it's language and strange customs.

[Mohoender]

I agree mostly with this.
But only until a foreign soldier (any foreign soldier) tried to occupy any ground or impose it's language and strange customs.

At least you know that the foreign soldier won't be french. We had enough when Napoleon tried.