Australia Twilight War & After...

[Webstral]

It'd be madness for the USSR to nuke Australia unless a US warship is in port or they hit the telemetry stations at Pine Gap or North West Cape. Everything else is far less unimportant than tasking more warheads to critical European and US targets where the initial warheads may not get through.

How would it be madness Any form of retaliation Australia might mete out to the Soviets or their satellites is exactly the sort of thing a modest nuclear strike would be intended to prevent.

[QUOTE=ChalkLine;13921]It's all academic anyway. Both systems were designed that once confirmed nuke launches or strikes were observed the arsenals were immediately launched, because otherwise they would risk being destroyed in their silos. The crews knew they would be dead shortly anyway.
QUOTE]

Simply not true. If this were the case, we'd have been incinerated already due to the number of false alarms--some of them extremely convincing. In any event, the idea of massive automatic retaliation takes the fate of nations out of the hands of exactly the kinds of people who prefer to make important decisions themselves. The US (and presumably the other nuclear powers as well) haven't invested literally billions in communications so that a general can call up the President and tell him, "You're ******, sir. Sorry, you don't get a say. It's all automatic." It's a fact that some aspects of the system are automated. It's not a fact that the President gets no say.

Webstral

[ChalkLine]

How would it be madness Any form of retaliation Australia might mete out to the Soviets or their satellites is exactly the sort of thing a modest nuclear strike would be intended to prevent.

Web, I think you may have misunderstood me. This is exactly what I'm saying.

Australia is so militarily insignificant in a USA/USSR war that any expenditure on targets there is a waste of resources.

The US has the only credible NATO ABM system, so you have to multitarget the same area as many times as you can to overwhelm defences. You send not 16 MIRVs at a US target, you sent 16 ICBMs with 16 MIRVs each at one to ensure you get a penetration.

Everyone goes on about the 3000 warheads the USSR has, but that's actually not as many missiles as you'd think. For target saturation you strike and strike again.

Don't forget, once you launch you're going to lose your targeting capability within ten minutes. There's no time to say 'bugger, target x didn't get hit' and task a few more missiles at it.

[Mohoender]

Australia definitely not hit by nukes!!

Sorry to say that but Web you are wrong despite having the wisest thinking. Australia can't be hit by nukes during the Twilight War (New Zealand even less).

- Following how the war is set up, the Soviets have lost their pacific fleet (not the case for US, however). I doubt that the US navy/Japanese navy (respectively 1st and 3rd navy in the world) would forget a single Soviet sub. Moreover, these Soviet subs would target US as a priority (as you said Australia can't hit you back).
- Australia is simply out of range (someone mentioned that loosely already but we overlooked that, me included).

At most, the Soviet can make the Australian desert glow in the dark. Aborigines and Kangaroos might be wiped out and the Soviets will have solve Australia's problems with wild horses and ferral camels.

Here is a small review of Soviet ICBM range to compare with Australia/New Zealand cities distances to the Soviet Union southern border (There are no ICBM bases directly on that border by the way: add 500/1.000km to the cities distances). That puts two cities within extreme range: Darwin (Crocodile Dundee is gone along with 50.000 Aussies) and eventually Perth (Sorry Targan but you are glowing in the dark). The most the Soviets will get out of this is a full commitment of an intact Australia to the war (about 3 million troops if you include male/female motivated by anger alone).

RT-23UTTKh Molodets (SS-24) : 10.450km
MR-UR-100 (SS-17) : 11.000km
R-36M/M2 Voyevoda (SS-18) : 11.000km/16.000km (only with 20Mt warhead solely targeted at US ICBM bases...)
RT-2P (SS-13) : 9.500km
RT-2PM Topol (SS-25) : 10.500km
UR-100N (SS-19) : 10.000km

Distance to Soviet Southern Border
Adelaide 10.500km
Brisbane 10.500km
Canberra 11.000km
Darwin 8.000km
Melbourne 11.500km
Perth 9.500km
Sydney 11.000km

Auckland 12.500km
Wellington 13.000km

You might be back to the Spetnaz raid advocated by Leg but that's doubtful as well: they would have to swim a F... Long Way.

One conclusion, T2K team was right, Soviets always considered Australia to be insignificant. More seriously, Australia without Europe and US is simply no threat except may be to penguins occupying Antartica. Of course, Soviets have plenty of missiles and warheads but they can't deliver them that far.

I might have the end word on that one (no false modesty but take a map and measure distances)

[Rainbow Six]

If you're strictly observing canon, isn't Australia co operating with France It's been a while since I looked at my copy of Twiilight Encounters but I seem to remember there was a scenario entitled "What's the Polish for G'day" that had a squad of Australian SAS troopers in Poland who had got there on a French submarine I know the whole scenario was meant to be a little out of the ordinary and quite vague on detail but wasn't there a reference in that about France and Australia forming a "League of non irradiated nations"

Also, someone at one point in time posted a write up on a website about a group of troops from Australia, NZ, and the Pacific Islands who had been in Europe and North Africa on various UN missions at the outbreak of War and were now serving as a Brigade unit in Germany. Sorry, but I can't for the life of me find the link. It was non canon obviously.

Good discussion btw...I'm enjoying reading it.

Cheers

[Rainbow Six]

You might be back to the Spetnaz raid advocated by Leg but that's doubtful as well: they would have to swim a F... Long Way.

Give the Spetznaz a suitcase nuke and Australia still gets nuked

Or, rather than Spetznaz, who probably are in greater need elsewhere (plus it does sound a bit like a suicide mission for spetznaz), a lone KGB agent operating under deep cover could do the same job and then blend back in to the population afterwards

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Give the Spetznaz a suitcase nuke and Australia still gets nuked

Or, rather than Spetznaz, who probably are in greater need elsewhere (plus it does sound a bit like a suicide mission for spetznaz), a lone KGB agent operating under deep cover could do the same job and then blend back in to the population afterwards

Would certainly make for an interesting game scenario with a lot of opportunity for long campaign tracking down the badguys.

I am, however, in full agreement with Webstral. I don't for a second believe that the quite significant US communications abilities found in at least two places in Australia (Pine Gap and Harold E. Holt AKA North-West Cape), would be ignored by the Soviets simply because they are out of range of Soviet land-based missiles.

After some discussion with friends who were more into Twilight: 2000 than I ever was (my primary interest is in the Cold War) I believe that the 'Australia invaded by Indonesia' scenario was an alternate history by a fellow Australian called Damian. None of us recall his full name but we are reasonably sure he had a website with the information and that he lived in Queensland.

Anyway, to throw out some more information, particularly for Mohoender...
http://www.geocities.com/lucktam/awacs/p3aew.htm A short page about the P-3 AEW plane

[Fusilier]

- Following how the war is set up, the Soviets have lost their pacific fleet (not the case for US, however). I doubt that the US navy/Japanese navy (respectively 1st and 3rd navy in the world) would forget a single Soviet sub.

I disagree. There is virtually nothing written about the naval events in the Pacific. Anything anyone says on the matter is merely opinion and any outcome you want can be said on the matter.

Not only that but, thinking about it a little more, we know that it isn't true because there were Soviet surface ships running around the Pacific in 1999, well after the nuclear exchange (Satellite Down).

There is a possibility subs could have been lurking within range of Australia in 1997.

[Mohoender]

If you're strictly observing canon, isn't Australia co operating with France

I never got much on Australia per cannon and don't read scenarios. Possibly.

[Rainbow Six]

Just a passing thought...

I've read somewhere that during the Falklands War the Royal Navy warship that was stationed in the Caribbean was replaced by a Royal New Zealand Navy ship so that the Royal Navy ship could join the South Atlantic Task Force.

Would have thought that if Australia / NZ remained non combatant during the Twilight War (or at least the opening phases) it's possible that such a thing might be repeated and Australian and New Zealand warships might relieve NATO vessels in areas away from the active theatres (such as the Faklands) to allow the NATO vessels to redeploy to those active theatres

Potentially this might mean that by the year 2000 Australian and New Zealand warships might be found many thousands of miles from home Imagine the look on the faces of pirates in the caribbean finding themselves under attack by the Royal Australian or New Zealand Navies....

[Targan]

After some discussion with friends who were more into Twilight: 2000 than I ever was (my primary interest is in the Cold War) I believe that the 'Australia invaded by Indonesia' scenario was an alternate history by a fellow Australian called Damian. None of us recall his full name but we are reasonably sure he had a website with the information and that he lived in Queensland.

According to the Traveller 2300 timeline (which is theoretically T2K v.1 canon) Darwin and Cape York were occupied at one stage by Indonesia. That may have been after the Twilight War though, I don't have my T2300 books at hand to check.

[Targan]

If you're strictly observing canon, isn't Australia co operating with France It's been a while since I looked at my copy of Twiilight Encounters but I seem to remember there was a scenario entitled "What's the Polish for G'day" that had a squad of Australian SAS troopers in Poland who had got there on a French submarine I know the whole scenario was meant to be a little out of the ordinary and quite vague on detail but wasn't there a reference in that about France and Australia forming a "League of non irradiated nations"

I think it is possible that Australia took a pragmatic approach in its relationship with France, much as the two rival US governments' commanders in the Persian Gulf did.

Also, someone at one point in time posted a write up on a website about a group of troops from Australia, NZ, and the Pacific Islands who had been in Europe and North Africa on various UN missions at the outbreak of War and were now serving as a Brigade unit in Germany. Sorry, but I can't for the life of me find the link. It was non canon obviously.

I have attached a word document with this article. Sorry that I haven't included attribution to the author but I don't know its source.

[RN7]

They use Chobham+ (Renford Armour from memory)

I think they call the 2nd generation Chobham armour on the Challenger 2 Dorchester. Its certainly very tough, only one tank has been destroyed in action, and that was in a friendly fire incident when it was hit from another British Challenger 2.

In one encounter in Iraq a Challenger 2 came under attack in an urban area. Despite damage to the driver's sight and throwing its tracks, and being hit directly by eight RPG's at close range and a MILAN ATGM, and being under fire from heavy small arms fire for hours, the crew survived safely and the tank was back in operation six hours later after repairs. Another Challenger 2 survived being hit by 70 RPGs with little damage.

I think the Challenger 2s 120mm/55 L30A1 rifled tank gun is also the longest ranged of any western tank gun, and may hold the record for the longest kill by a tank. Although the Rheinmetall L55 120mm/55 smoothbore gun used in the German Leopard 2A6 has proven slightly superior in penetration when fitted with Tungsten rounds versus the Challenger 2's DU rounds.

[Webstral]

Sorry to say that but Web you are wrong despite having the wisest thinking. Australia can't be hit by nukes during the Twilight War (New Zealand even less).

One conclusion, T2K team was right, Soviets always considered Australia to be insignificant. More seriously, Australia without Europe and US is simply no threat except may be to penguins occupying Antartica. Of course, Soviets have plenty of missiles and warheads but they can't deliver them that far.

I might have the end word on that one (no false modesty but take a map and measure distances)

Sorry, Mo, but you are wrong despite some very good and very reasonable number crunching for land-based ICBM. You blithely assume that American attack boats sink every Soviet boomer that might come within range of Australia before November 1997. Even I, an unapologetic booster for the USN, would not go this far. Since the land-based missiles are adequate for the task of hitting CONUS, a single boomer operating in the Indian Ocean or South Pacific could supply all of the nukes needed to ensure that Australia gets put in the same category as the US or the other Western allies.

Australia may not have the largest industrial base in the Western world, but she's hardly a Third World country. Australia may not have the largest oil reserves in the world, but she has mineral wealth. Australia may not be the world's bread basket, but as of 1997 she is a net exporter of grains. These are strategic assets. It doesn't take very many nukes to disrupt the fabric of modern society, whereas leaving Australia's resource and production base fully functional is needlessly risky. Who knows how Australian aid might speed American recovery One or two MIRV-capable missiles ought to do the job, leaving plenty for the launching boomer to continue other missions.

Again, I hope my Australian cousins don't take offense that I am pushing for an acceptance of nuclear incineration for hundreds of thousands of Australians and major disruption of the nation.

Webstral

[Rainbow Six]

I have attached a word document with this article. Sorry that I haven't included attribution to the author but I don't know its source.

Yep, that's the one. Unfortunately, like yourself I have no clue who the original author was.

[Targan]

I've read somewhere that during the Falklands War the Royal Navy warship that was stationed in the Caribbean was replaced by a Royal New Zealand Navy ship so that the Royal Navy ship could join the South Atlantic Task Force.

Would have thought that if Australia / NZ remained non combatant during the Twilight War (or at least the opening phases) it's possible that such a thing might be repeated and Australian and New Zealand warships might relieve NATO vessels in areas away from the active theatres (such as the Faklands) to allow the NATO vessels to redeploy to those active theatres

Potentially this might mean that by the year 2000 Australian and New Zealand warships might be found many thousands of miles from home Imagine the look on the faces of pirates in the caribbean finding themselves under attack by the Royal Australian or New Zealand Navies....

I've always thought that Australian and New Zealand forces would have fought in the Korean and/or Korean theatres during the Twilight War (but I can't be sure that I actually read it in canon).

In addition it seems a certainty to me that the RAN and RNZN would be engaged in patrolling the sea lanes in the Indian Ocean (to try to keep the fuel shipments safe from the Persian Gulf) as well as the South Pacific and South China Sea.

There is a specific mention in the Nautical/Aviation Sourcebook of a multinational UN peacekeeping force, which included Australians, being deployed in Sri Lanka between 1993 and the Twilight War.