T2K Today: Korea

[Raellus]

Some possible scenarios leading up to another shooting war between the Koreas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100526/wl_time/08599199192800

[headquarters]

T2K Korean scenarios

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though Would China intervene on its behalf

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

I have sort of an answer - to involve another major power could happen by accident .

Pardon my forgetfulness - but I did see some T2K scenarios based on another Koraen war on the internet - " something Dragon something " - I just cant remember where and who has written it.
Not very helpful..

As for in game scenarios - and of course - this is only meant as a suggestion to a " timeline " and NOT intended as a political comment of any sort nor is it in any way intended to anger any particular group -save possibly the criminals in Pyongyang

What about a tit for tat scenario where the border skirmishes that the Norks love go wrong , and serious shooting starts .( there are so many border incidents on land,in the air and at sea that it resembles assymetrical warfare already any tangible escalation might trigger this incident in RL).

The instability of the Nork leadership and circumstance leads to "the Sea of Fire Scenario" ,where the Norks shoot Seoul and environs to smitherens and kill app 1000 000 ROK citizens ,crippeling the countrys economy , and in an already hampered global economy,trigger a downward spiral that rapidly leads to major instability in the industrialized world.(Think Greece only on a larger scale ).

The ongoing barrage in Seoul ( stopping it with conventional weapons might take weeks or months ) and major raids -possibly coupled by some surprise defeats for the ROK/US forces in the conventional war adds to the doom and gloom and whips up a frenzy in public opinion .

This in turn leads to a perception of the legality of answering with tactical nuclear weapons -which in turn leads to a well planned and executed infiltration attack on the US by Nork agents using some sort of WMDs and devestating attacks on critical infrastructure and symbolic targets - if indded it wasnt already in the works once the war went loud at the .38th parallell.

To involve any of the other major powers against the US would take some conjuring imho - but the terrorist route that 2013 has taken might be one approach - possibly with a powerful super villain faction not aligned with the official goverment in Beijing or Moscow or indeed Riyadh as the cloacked force behind the attacks,backing a faction that takes advantage of the chaos and open up a second front against the West..If this is discovered by any allied intelligence agency I dare say the mess would be of such proportions that only blowing the kitchen up will suffice as a cleaning operation .

A lot of ifs and maybes - I know .

[pmulcahy11b]

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

[Rainbow Six]

This a tangent, but I always thought that a good name for a Korea Sourcebook would be Morning Calm -- the full name of Korea (can't remember the full name of Korea, though) means "Land of the Morning Calm."

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

[Jason Weiser]

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/North-Korea-Reneges-On-Naval-Agreement-with-South-95004154.html

http://www.informationdissemination.net/

The one about the Nork midget subs is particularly enlightening.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-dispatches-envoy-to-restrain-war-mad-north-korea-2010-5

And this short piece, says a lot when the Chinese are that nervous.

The links keep coming: This paragraph is especially enlightening:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7138002.ece

A US aircraft has been sent from the Japanese island of Okinawa to spy on the North, and the Japanese government has been informed of an unusually high level of troop movements on the northern side of the inter-Korean border, The Times learnt today. Meanwhile, Pyongyang announced that it will nullify a communications arrangement set up to prevent conflict between the two countries' navies.

[pmulcahy11b]

I'm watching the crawler under Obama's press conference on MSNBC right now -- the Chinese say they're going to join the US and South Korea in condemning North Korean actions as of late. Interesting.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think that's a brilliant suggestion...

It does have sort of an ironic touch in a T2K world.

[Jason Weiser]

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/05/27/2010052701263.html

Looks like we're really paying attention....Watchcon 2. And that a/c from Okinawa Probably Rivet Joint or whatever they're calling her now.

[pmulcahy11b]

Watchcon 2...not a good indication at all...

[simonmark6]

I know it's random but I love the fact that the site Jason linked to has an advert for relocating to North Korea. Chances are at the moment that the only Americans relocating to North Korea will be riding tanks.

[Webstral]

There are so many variables. I've just read a piece by a USAF pilot who thinks we'll finish it all in two hours. I hope he's right, but the Greeks taught us the dangers of hubris.

All of the planning that has gone into this thing makes me think that for every measure there is a countermeasure and a counter-countermeasure ad nauseum. How much do the NKs know about our capabilities What kinds of countermeasures have they taken at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels To what degree is our firepower going to be so overwhelming that even the NKs can stand against it, and to what degree will our firepower be neutralized by imaginative and/or effective countermeasures I honestly don't know the answers. In the mid-90's, I might have said I had a loose grasp on what was going on in Korea. Now, I just don't have any current information.

What I do know is that I am very, very wary of accepting the idea that we would destroy the DPRK's ability to wage war in the space of a few hours. That just seems too good to be true. It also implies that the NKs haven't thought this thing through. Comparisons between Iraq and North Korea have at least as many entries in the unlike column as the alike column.

Hopefully, it's all just posturing. Hopefully, something won't go terribly wrong somewhere as everyone runs around playing their part during the posturing.

Webstral

[pmulcahy11b]

Hopefully, it's all just posturing. Hopefully, something won't go terribly wrong somewhere as everyone runs around playing their part during the posturing.

The Watchcon went to 2 when Kim Il-Sung died and Kim Jong-Il took over. We were worried and closely monitoring the situation in North Korea for about a month. We were ready to go at any moment. That managed to resolve itself; hopefully this will too.

[Matt W]

Apologies if someone has already linked to this

http://www.washingtonspeakers.com/prod_images/pdfs/KayDavid.NorthKoreaTheWarGame.07.05.pdf

It's a report on a wargame/brainstorming session held in 2005 by "The Atlantic" magazine. The results (and opinions) make interesting reading. Incidentally, the pdf also mentions a 1961 treaty that - if NK is invaded - obliges China to commit troops in support of North Korea.

[Webstral]

What I like about the paper Matt linked us to is the idea that war in Korea is not simply a matter of dropping some, or a slew, of precision munitions on NK conventional forces as they strike south across the DMZ. It's not even about firing a ton of cruise missiles and other precision munitions at targets in the PDRK to wreck the North Korean ability to wage war. Even if we achieve a smashing conventional victory in defeating Northern aggression against the South, we are confronted with the North's possible NBC actions, possible ongoing infiltration and sabotage, possible attacks on shipping by NK submarines, and the ongoing existence of the regime. If the loss of a conventional war in Korea leads to the collapse of the Kim regime, the crisis takes on a whole new dimension that is not amenable to solution by JDAM. If Iraq and Afghanistan have shown us anything, it's that we can't skimp on occupation forces. Where are a half-million (or more) riflemen supposed to come from I'm past the point where I'm going to volunteer for a year of peacekeeping in Korea, and I'm too old to be drafted.

Not all problems can be solved with high explosives.

Webstral

[headquarters]

hehe

I know it's random but I love the fact that the site Jason linked to has an advert for relocating to North Korea. Chances are at the moment that the only Americans relocating to North Korea will be riding tanks.

or they are incredibly optimistic - I mean - come on...relocate to sunny North Korea

LOL!