Operation Proud Lion: T2K in Kenya

[Raellus]

I'm looking at several maps of the Nile and it doesn't appear to have any significant headwaters or tributaries in Kenya. If this is the case, spending treasure on taking the Kenyans to task over water rights violations would be a major investment without any significant payoff.

Still, fighting among Kenya's northern neighbors over access to water seems likely in a T2K scenario and would lead to considerabe destablilization of the region. Some of that could spill over the Sudan-Kenya border.

[HorseSoldier]

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

If Kenya is *the* show in Africa, I'd expect that a good sized chunk of 3rd SFG(A) would be in country as well, probably a mix of guys embedded with Kenyan military units and manning old school SF camps on the frontiers with militia and Kenyan military units to serve as trip wires for big incursions and help dissuade smaller raiding parties.

(GDW has 5th Group active in Kenya in the RDF Sourcebook, but it predates 3rd Group being reraised. At least a portion of 3rd Group would probably still be active in the Caribbean running missions against Cuba and its interests, but that's another topic.)

[Raellus]

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

OK. But in mid-'97, when the 173rd deployed (according to Frey), adequate airlift and fuel for the brigade's aircraft was available and the Kenyan military is no slouch. If it's simply a matter of assisting the Kenyans in counter-insurgency operations, elements of the 5th SFG would probably be adequate. A reinforced BCT is overkill, especially considering the need for such a unit elsewhere. With the U.S. engaged in full-scale conventional warfare in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, an entire Airborne BCT could be put to use almost anywhere else BUT Kenya. IMO, a conventional Tanzanian invasion makes the commitment of the 173rd in Kenya a much more justifiable investment. Once they're there, the breakdown of the world's transportation networks following the TDM and the continued presence of large numbers of marauders on Kenya's frontiers explains the BCT's continued presence there.

Thanks, though, for the lead on the 5th SFG. I'll have to take a look at my RDF sourcebook. I could definitely use them in my scenario.

[HorseSoldier]

It's a brief reference in the text of RDF about 5th SFG having teams working with Masai tribesmen, if I remember right. As noted, it would be 3rd Group if they still got reactivated in 1990, which would possibly have happened in the Twilight timeline as well. I'm pretty sure the reactivation was planned as part of the Reagan-era plus up of the US military before the walls came down, even if it post-dated that by a year or so.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Okay so the water angle isn't as workable but how about the reason the 173rd is there is because the Kenyans are refining oil that is actually supplied from Egypt
The 173rd is deployed there to collect some fuel being refined by the Kenyans in exchange for whatever. They find they don't have the capacity to transport the fuel so end up having to wait around and by that time, it's the end of the war in Europe and they are left to their own devices.

[Raellus]

Okay so the water angle isn't as workable but how about the reason the 173rd is there is because the Kenyans are refining oil that is actually supplied from Egypt
The 173rd is deployed there to collect some fuel being refined by the Kenyans in exchange for whatever. They find they don't have the capacity to transport the fuel so end up having to wait around and by that time, it's the end of the war in Europe and they are left to their own devices.

If that works for you, go with it. I put a lot of thought, research, and work into my version of events so I'm going to stick with it.

[Raellus]

It's a brief reference in the text of RDF about 5th SFG having teams working with Masai tribesmen, if I remember right. As noted, it would be 3rd Group if they still got reactivated in 1990, which would possibly have happened in the Twilight timeline as well. I'm pretty sure the reactivation was planned as part of the Reagan-era plus up of the US military before the walls came down, even if it post-dated that by a year or so.

You've got a good memory. This is all that the RDF sourcebook has to say on the subject:

"SOCCENT: Last (but certainly not the least) of CENTCOM's component commands is Special Operations Command Central Command (SOCCENT).

Its Special Forces A Teams are in action from Iran to Kenya and work with such ethnic/racial groups as the Kurdish hill tribes of southwestern Iran and the Masai warriors of Kenya." (RDF Sourcebook, p.18)

[HorseSoldier]

Stuck in my head because I always wondered what they were doing in Africa during the middle of WW3, since v1.0 did not mention anything about the war in that part of the world.

[waiting4something]

For a single brigade, especially without the full-up suite RSTA assets available these days and limited airlift, just securing the Kenyan border against random marauders spilling over from the Sudan (and Ethiopia, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda) would be a serious trick. Don't really need major invasions to have the 173rd and the Kenyan military stretched to the limit with the whole continent sliding into chaos.

If Kenya is *the* show in Africa, I'd expect that a good sized chunk of 3rd SFG(A) would be in country as well, probably a mix of guys embedded with Kenyan military units and manning old school SF camps on the frontiers with militia and Kenyan military units to serve as trip wires for big incursions and help dissuade smaller raiding parties.

(GDW has 5th Group active in Kenya in the RDF Sourcebook, but it predates 3rd Group being reraised. At least a portion of 3rd Group would probably still be active in the Caribbean running missions against Cuba and its interests, but that's another topic.)

Wouldn't it be the job of the 20th SFG to be taking care of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico I thought the 3rd SFG was strictly Africa, with the 5th SFG helping them out Eastern Horn of Africa. This way the 3rd may be a bigger force and more effectively spread out.

[HorseSoldier]

Early 90s, when they first stood up, 3rd had the Caribbean + Africa, with a portion of 20th tasked to support them (I think -- I spent a while in 20th, but early 90s were way before my time). Caribbean tasking kind of got punted around a good deal along the way, I think, with 7th and 20th both getting a piece of that AOR at different points.

Hard to say how tasking would have been divided up circa Twilight 1996, without a Gulf War, Somalia, etc. in the mix.

[Raellus]

Putting aside the Group question for a moment, what size detachment do you think would be adequate and realistic for conducting training ops in Kenya, after the start of T2K/WWIII and before my Tanzanian invasion in mid-'97

I think that one ODA/A-Team would be about right. Too small I'm sure SF troops would be badly needed elsewhere. Perhaps the balance of the A-Team's parent company after it is decided to commit the 173rd

And I'm also thinking that the Brits would send at least a mobility troop of the SAS to support the training and mine warfare cadres already in place there.

[HorseSoldier]

It depends on how things are set up, what the desired end state is, and what level of commitment the US .gov is wanting to demonstrate by sending in SF troops.

A single ODA working out of the US embassy would be a possible approach if very, very limited goals were intended -- perhaps providing some mentoring and training to Kenyan SOF/elite sort of units, for instance.

At the other end of the spectrum, if Kenya provides a willing host nation for operations in Africa -- and if the Soviets/Cubans are trying to cause trouble in that neck of the woods while everything else is going on -- you could have everything up to the Group headquarters planted there, with component units operating all over the place.

With the 3rd Shock Army rampaging in central Europe and Soviets in Iran, that's probably rolling heavier than Africa would warrant. I'd figure the bulk of 3rd Group is backstopping 5th Group or maybe 10th Group, since southern Europe is pretty complicated and NATO hostile.

I'd guess anything from the single ODA idea you mentioned to up to a battalion if Kenya is a base for operations elsewhere in Africa, or up to a company if stouter support for Kenya, specifically, is intended.


** Unrelated idea concerning ex-pats in Kenya/Africa. The East Germans used to dump a lot of folks down that way helping training their fraternal socialist brethren and all that (if I remember right, the South Africans killed a couple of them in Angola in the 70s or 80s). Waking up and finding themselves suddenly on NATO's side in a camp otherwise full of Cuban and/or Soviet advisors could make for some interesting drama -- and they could have marched out towards the nearest NATO forces in Kenya from Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, etc, or PCs could be sent out on a long range patrol to make contact with them holed up in some African town and bring them out, etc.

[Raellus]

** Unrelated idea concerning ex-pats in Kenya/Africa. The East Germans used to dump a lot of folks down that way helping training their fraternal socialist brethren and all that (if I remember right, the South Africans killed a couple of them in Angola in the 70s or 80s). Waking up and finding themselves suddenly on NATO's side in a camp otherwise full of Cuban and/or Soviet advisors could make for some interesting drama -- and they could have marched out towards the nearest NATO forces in Kenya from Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, etc, or PCs could be sent out on a long range patrol to make contact with them holed up in some African town and bring them out, etc.

That's an awesome idea. I think I will use it.

[Jason Weiser]

Some other ideas...what to do with Libya...

One idea is they send some "volunteers" to assist the Tanzanians. Not at all impossible and with Libya "neutral" in the larger conflict, till they cross the Kenyan frontier, there's probably little we could do about it. Once the shooting starts, Libya's going to be flattened. But a brigade of light troops, maybe a battalion of tanks and oh, I dunno, a squadron of Mig-23s or Mirages might do wonders for the air superiority situation...till the US arrives. It would really put the Kenyans on the backfoot early and the Soviets would be out very little. Not to mention, the Libyans have more equipment than they need. Selling some to Tanzania wouldn't be out of the question either....

[Raellus]

I like that. I'm sure Libya could swing some infantry and maybe a squadron of fighters. That would add to the intrigue. Libyans trapped in southern Kenya/northern Tanzania after the war went nuclear could make things more interesting