Swedish Interests in T2K Poland

[Raellus]

We've talked a lot here about France's interests in Poland, as well as those of Poland's immediate continental neighbors and the dual/dueling governments of the U.S. but, as I was doing some research into Poland's history- specifically the history of the regions along the Baltic coast- I learned that Sweden actually had control of the area around Kolobrzeg during the late 17th and early 18th centuries.

Would Sweden have designs on the carcass of Poland in late 2000 and thereafter Especially after the chaos that follows in the wake of XI Corp's abortive offensive and the mysterious PACT counteroffensive in the summer of 2000, it seems like certain cities along the coast would be ripe for the picking.

I've never much thought about Sweden during the Twilight War (apologies to our Swedish contingent) so I'm operating here from a position of ignorance. My impression is that Sweden is largely spared the destruction visited upon its neighbors on both sides of the Baltic (Norway, N. Finland, Poland, Germany).

Operating from a position of relative strength, could/would Sweden try to snatch a piece of coastal Poland What would Sweden stand to gain, or lose, from such an adventure Might Sweden do so in an attempt to position itself as a continental power- a return to the glorious past of Gustavus Adolphus- for the new milenium Would staunchly neutral Sweden even consider such a thing Imagine, France and Sweden as the preeminent powers of Europe in the first decades of the 21st century!

Perhaps a group of Swedish troops, acting on their own initiative but with the implied approval of the Swedish government ("let's just see what happens"), could test the waters with an expedition to Poland in an operation somewhat reminiscent of their Viking ancestors.

Thoughts

[dragoon500ly]

Intresting....

The big problem is if the Swedes decide to violate their neutrality.

Currently they only have two landing craft capable of carrying 325 troops each, everything else is short-ranged landing craft. There would also be the question of how much airlift they would have.

Realisticly...if they sent any troops at all I doubt it would be much more than brigade strength at best. Most of their navy is coastal submarines and guided-missile and torpedo boats so Poland would be streching their capabilites to the maximum. I'd have to vote no.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Sweden was one of the significant European powers in the 1600s but from what I understand of it, a general lack of income prevented her from being pre-eminent (that and the Battle of Poltava in 1709).
During the height of her empire, Sweden had control of parts (or in some cases, all) of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ghana, Latvia, Norway, Poland, Russia and even Trinidad & Tobago.
However, that territorial ambition was all but stopped after the Battle of Poltava.

Would the Swedes be interested in resurrecting part of their old empire I tend to think not because I think too much time has passed and many Swedes of the late 20th century would not feel any sort of connection to the empire of the 17th century. I think they would be more concerned with maintaining what they already possess as the world crumbles around them.
The French were propelled into their foreign policy (or should that be, empire building!) by a desire after the 1960s for self-sufficiency from Europe and the NATO alliance but the Swedes have no such motivation.

[Abbott Shaull]

Yes way back when Sweden was quite a power. Ironically and historically Sweden, Austria-Hungarian Empire, Russia, as well as various German state have all had their time with time-sharing Poland and the Baltic States. As well as Poland at one time was just as big of a player in the region.

[Panther Al]

One of the biggest reasons you see Sweden if I read my history right is that back in the day you had lutheran swedish Vasa's claiming Poland, and polish catholic Vasa's claiming Sweden. And with each side perfectly willing to fight about it, well... The existing Swedish royal family on the other hand is french: one of napoleon's generals took the throne. Bernadotte if I recall correctly.

[Mohoender]

For my part I have a Sweden being at the center of a new Kalmar Treaty. However, not as a so-called Empire but as defensive/economical Union.

I tend to have Norway and Finland in it with the king of Norway heading the Union. If Sweden initiated it, it doesn't intend to rule it on an absolute manner.

I also tend to have Sweden maintaining commercial exchanges with Estonia but that can go a lot further IMO. I wouldn't have the Swedes going in Poland (too much of a mess) but more likely in Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania and Schleswig-Holstein (Germany).

Again, I don't have them doing this with conquest in mind but defense and common-interests. About, their neutrality, I integrated the fight between Sweden and USSR as depicted by "Antenna". I integrated it so fully that I can't say anymore if it is part of cannon or not.

About their means of actions (ships I mean), I consider that they have quite enough especially in regard to the situation in the Baltic.

First, I had the Swedish Navy being joined by surviving vessels from Norway and Finland (These are quite enough in the Baltic Sea with the German, Polish and Soviet navies virtually gone).

Second, their navy still receives replacements as Sweden retains a functionnal industry with quite some ressources at hand. For my part, I have Sweden taking over the Sjkold design from Norway. THerefore, the backbone of their navy are Visby-class corvettes, Gteborg-class corvettes, Sjkold-class Missile Crafts, Spica-class Missile Crafts (including Helsinki-class as a matter of convenience) and Gtland-class submarines (with a few German Types).

Third, they have enough landing crafts: 3 LST (may be a couple more from Norway), 60+ LCT and more than 200 Stridsb$t 90 (including some from Norway). I agree that these ships are short range but the distances involved are short as well (mostly around 200km with the most being probably 300).

Last, as I don't consider that Sweden conducts invasion but responds to calls from its neighbours, most troops are brought by civilian ferries with very little naval landings involved (in the true sense).

This is for the potential (IMO) but in my timeline I have the following:
- The New Kalmar Union was established in response to NATO (Finland) and Soviet agressions (Norway and Sweden).
- Finland, Norway and Sweden are now one country under the leadership of Haakon VIII with troops heavily involved in Northern Scandinavia. Despite losses within the navy, these losses had been partly replaced and they effectively control the Baltic along with most of the Norwegian coast.
- As in v2.2 I consider that nothing was subjected to nukes. On the other hand, I have the region being more organized with chaos essentially concerning Finland and the mountainous center of the peninsula.
- Access to strategic materials is greatly reduced but not down to zero. Between these three countries, you get about everything you need. As a result, industrial production remains a reality even for a limited amount of civilian goods. I adopted the idea of Antenna about sunthetic fuels but since the drying down of combat, oil is available as well. Oil/Gas rigs had been reopened in the North Sea and production is increasing.
- That's stictly me but I have Denmark being independent and out of the war. Not part in the New Kalmar Union, it maintains commercial relations with Sweden.
- Estonia also maitains some relations with it and Lithuania might see a Swedish intervention. However, I don't have the Swedes entering Latvia and Poland while it is the Danes which are being involved in Schleswig-Holstein after a late and short border war with Germany easily won by the Danish Army (and no, Denmark doesn't invade Germany).

[Targan]

However, I don't have the Swedes entering Latvia and Poland while it is the Danes which are being involved in Schleswig-Holstein after a late and short border war with Germany easily won by the Danish Army (and no, Denmark doesn't invade Germany).

Is this before or after the Germans receive hundreds of AFVs from the Americans as part of the Operation Omega deal

[Mohoender]

Is this before or after the Germans receive hundreds of AFVs from the Americans as part of the Operation Omega deal

Actually before and if I call it a war, it is in fact not trully a war. While France is dealing with a refugee problem of her own, Denmark had one earlier. When the nukes started to fall over Hamburg and some major cities, refugees arrived into Schleswig-Holstein. With the collapse of the German government, a number of them along with several rear-area units of the Bundeswehr attempted to cross the border into Denmark. Fighting was short and the Danish Army easily came on top.

Unlike France, Denmark doesn't establish a buffer zone (after all the border is only a bout 50km wide). Instead, the Danes make a deal with German authorities in Schleswig-Holstein to provide a substential relief effort.

Denmark never really went to war with Germany. People at the border often having relatives in Germany pushed for the deal and the last thing I assumed is that the number of refugees piling up at the Danish border is much lower than the one at the French border.

[Mohoender]

If the Swedes establish themselves somewhere in Germany, I would assume that they might control Sassnitz and the Rgen Island (probably called in by the locals themselves).

[dragoon500ly]

Now I can see a couple of the larger islands being occupied, early warning and forward bases sort of thing. I can even see a garrison on either side of a critical strait/choke point. But getting involved in the mainland mess that is Poland, nope, at least not for a couple of years after Omega, giveing time for things to settle down and stabilize. But their first movement towards Poland will more likely be commercial rather than military.

When I looked over the Swedish Navy for my earlier post, I did not the 60+ landing craft, but the largest of them is 70 tons and the majority are under 20 tons....not what one would want for an extended sea voyage.

[Legbreaker]

As indicated, Poland is a mess. What self respecting nation is going to want anything to do with it in the short term
Sweden, although largely untouched by the war (if you ignore EMP, Fallout, waves of refugees, shortages of just about EVERYTHING especially the imported products) isn't likely in my opinion to want to risk it's relatively tenuous position as the last bastion of civilisation in Europe, just to try for a little land grabbing. A couple of closer islands might be garrisoned, but that's about it.
That's not to say they won't send the odd recce team to take a look, or some of the more adventurous diplomats might try brokering a cease fire or two (and fail), but anything more than small groups of say a dozen or so just isn't likely.

[HorseSoldier]

I can't see Sweden not getting fragged by the Soviets to neutralize them as a potential threat when the nukes fly. I picture Sweden as intact but rough on the edges and not able to project serious power across the Baltic. I tend to see them more interested in Denmark, Finland, and Norway, but some fighting merchants and limited government ops in Poland and elsewhere could definitely happen.

[Mohoender]

When I looked over the Swedish Navy for my earlier post, I did not the 60+ landing craft, but the largest of them is 70 tons and the majority are under 20 tons....not what one would want for an extended sea voyage.

I haven't seen your post but here is the listing of landing crafts of Sweden by 2002:

- 3 Grim class Landing Craft (dating back to 1960's, 5 were still seeing service by 1990) being 327t and 36m in length. Probably in the LCU class but I haven't been able to find one illustration. They are potentially the only ships capable of landing tanks and heavy equipments.
- 63 Landing Crafts (Hull No:207, 208, 211-213, 215, 217, 220-223, 225, 228, 230-239, 241, 243-245, 247-249, 252, 253, 256, 258-265, 267-269, 273, 274, 281-283, 603, 604, 606-612, 652-658). 40 to 50t and 21m in length. Probaly in the LCM class.
- Potentially 200+ (may be 300) Stridsbat-90 capable of 40knts and capable of carrying 20 troops. (really usefull for raiding parties)
- Potentially a dozen hovercrafts Typ ABS M10 (6 had entered service between 1995-1997)
- To this, you can add a fairly large number of Civilian Merchant Ferry that can be converted for naval support. I counted no less than 40 such ships for Sweden alone.

Of course, and I think we all agree, this is not enough to conduct any large offensive landing. However, it is more than enough to ensure regular supplies and to bring troops in a fairly unhostile environment (especially in a Sea which is fully under Swedish control).

[Mohoender]

As indicated, Poland is a mess. What self respecting nation is going to want anything to do with it in the short term

For my part: What self respecting nation is going to want anything to do with it in any kind of term

Poles are a pain even in peaceful time and I don't mean this as an insult. I say it full of respect as these people survive about anything and never give up.

[Rainbow Six]

As indicated, Poland is a mess. What self respecting nation is going to want anything to do with it in the short term
Sweden, although largely untouched by the war (if you ignore EMP, Fallout, waves of refugees, shortages of just about EVERYTHING especially the imported products) isn't likely in my opinion to want to risk it's relatively tenuous position as the last bastion of civilisation in Europe, just to try for a little land grabbing. A couple of closer islands might be garrisoned, but that's about it.
That's not to say they won't send the odd recce team to take a look, or some of the more adventurous diplomats might try brokering a cease fire or two (and fail), but anything more than small groups of say a dozen or so just isn't likely.

I think that's a fairly spot on summary...