Just In: Osama is dead

[Sanjuro]

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...
The only way to avoid a crash when this happens is to fly forward out of the falling column of air- but if you're trying to descend into a confined space like a compound with high walls you're stuffed!
This is of course only my guess- it fits the reported facts, but it could be completely wrong.

[Legbreaker]

Supposedly the heavily modified "stealth" Blackhawk crashed after hitting some sort of turbulence caused by the tall walls of the complex.

You'd think that given they'd run through the op on a 1:1 model of the complex, they'd have been aware of the turbulence issue and modified their plan accordingly.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that the US don't want to admit that somebody on the ground got lucky and slotted a bullet or two into something vital during the approach. Seems faaaaaaar more likely than a mechanical fault kicking in at that last critical moment, or "turbulence" they should have known about.

[Raellus]

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...
The only way to avoid a crash when this happens is to fly forward out of the falling column of air- but if you're trying to descend into a confined space like a compound with high walls you're stuffed!
This is of course only my guess- it fits the reported facts, but it could be completely wrong.

I found that explanation quite helpful, Sanjuro. Thanks.

@Leg: It's possible ground fire played a roll in the 'copter's crash but most reports indicate that very little return gunfire was received during the whole of the operation. From what I've read, it seems as though the compound guards were taken completely by surprise. Initial reports suggested a 40 minute gun battle occured after the SEALs arrived. More recent reports indicate that no such gun battle occured and that the compound guards where taken out quickly and without much in the way of resistance.

It doesn't make sense that the government would lie about the cause of the crash. In fact, a helicopter lost to enemy fire would make the raid seem more daring and dangerous and go some way to add justification, in part, to the shooting of an apparently unarmed Bin Laden.

Keep in mind that the fiery crash at Desert One was also due not to ground fire but due to difficult flying conditions, mechanical issues, and possibly pilot error.

[Legbreaker]

I'm still very skeptical about the whole thing. Helicopters aren't silent, no matter how anyone might hope so. I'm sure they would have had at least a few moments notice - just long enough for a couple of people (it would only take one) to grab an AK and let loose a burst or two into the air.

As for why they might keep the true cause of the crash a secret, who knows Just look at the changing information the US has been releasing in the days since the op - UBL was shot while unarmed but resisting in a fashion dangerous to the seals for example... huh Was he using harsh language, waving his beard at them in a threatening manner It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Obviously the downed heli wasn't included in the scripted press release and they've had to make changes to their story on the fly. The same probably goes for UBL's death, real, staged or otherwise. Basically, the way it's all happened has created fertile ground for dozens of conspiracy theories - where's the body for example "The photos showing his death have been doctored", etc...

Realistically only those few dozen people on the ground at the time truely know what really happened, and they're extremely unlikely to be speaking up any time soon.

Personally I believe they toasted his arse, as to lie about it now (for propaganda purposes) runs the risk of serious egg on face latter on. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though that they've smuggled his still breathing body off to a deep dark hole somewhere for interrogation. Same ultimate result though - his body feeding the fishes five minutes after his usefulness is at an end.

[Mohoender]

Obviously the downed heli wasn't included in the scripted press release and they've had to make changes to their story on the fly. The same probably goes for UBL's death, real, staged or otherwise. Basically, the way it's all happened has created fertile ground for dozens of conspiracy theories - where's the body for example "The photos showing his death have been doctored", etc...

Of course there is some level of conspiracy (in fact, secrecy) and, in France, we call that "raison d'tat". In 1998, I was finishing my bachelor in modern history at the American University of Paris. We were prosecuting Papon (for his action during ww2) and Miterrand had just declared that the archives would be made available to the public. It was true but for 5% of them. As a good historian, my teacher asked for access to these 5% (after all, the French president had just said that free access will be given to them). On the next day, he received a call from the minister of interior affairs asking him not to try to go any further or he would be thrown out of the country.

Realistically only those few dozen people on the ground at the time truely know what really happened, and they're extremely unlikely to be speaking up any time soon.

Right

Personally I believe they toasted his arse, as to lie about it now (for propaganda purposes) runs the risk of serious egg on face latter on. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though that they've smuggled his still breathing body off to a deep dark hole somewhere for interrogation. Same ultimate result though - his body feeding the fishes five minutes after his usefulness is at an end.

Then, they would have executed his wife or americans are the most stupid people on the planet (and you know I doubt it).

[Targan]

Best guess so far for the cause of the helo crash is "vortex ring"- where, when descending in the hover, the air that goes down through the rotors cannot disperse (trapped by a confined space, for example) and flows up and around the outside, then back down again, so the helicopter rotor is trying to fly in a column of air that is falling much faster. Think of it like trying to actually gain height on a Stairmaster and you've got the picture...

I think they had this problem with some of the early Osprey test flights didn't they Lost several aircraft to it in fact.

[Marc]

Hmmmmmm... It seems that we can reconstruct the details surrounding Osama's death in 1/285mm scale!


http://www.gamecraftminiatures.com/s...285mevobl.aspx

[Targan]

What is so strange about a supposedly 'heavily modified' or 'prototype' aircraft experiencing an unexpected critical failure Its is often said that the more complicated a mechanical device is the more likely it is to suffer a malfunction. Also, new tech often has 'teething problems'.

[rcaf_777]

"In combat, a plan is great until there is contact with the enemy" This may be a mis-quote on my part, but I think the point gets across.

The one I learn in the army was no battle plan ever survies frist contact with the ememy

you use for number of other thing like added in wife or scout troop in place of ememy and removing battle

[boogiedowndonovan]

"They don't have the skull in their emblem for nothing."

my bad LBraden already posted the link about a german tv station showing the wrong SEAL Team 6 logo.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17852_3-20061024-71.html

[Legbreaker]

What is so strange about a supposedly 'heavily modified' or 'prototype' aircraft experiencing an unexpected critical failure.

It's the timing of it that I'm seriously suspicious of. Any other time during the approach or withdrawal and fine, mechanical failure it is, but right on target as they're trying to land I just don't buy it, especially as previously mentioned, they ran through the op dozens of times on a 1:1 model and therefore should have known about any strange air currents, etc.

I don't believe it's totally impossible, just HIGHLY unlikely to happen right then and there.

[Sanjuro]

Legbreaker, vortex ring is nothing new; there is nothing mysterious about it- it is a known risk of descending in the hover, made worse when descending in the hover into a confined space, and when descending quickly. Ever watch the helicopter descent in Jurassic Park Vortex ring is the reason the helo descends so slowly into that ravine...
All it takes is a slight miscalculation of the horizontal stop point, leaving you with a longer than planned hovering descent, the need to get on the ground fast... it doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, or anything failed- it just means that things can go wrong when you have to do something dangerous (as I suspect you know better than I do...)

[Raellus]

IIRC, the helo crashed after the SEALs it was carrying fast-roped on to the roof of one of the smaller buildings inside the complex. There are a lot of variables there and, no matter how many times the operation was rehearsed with scale models and the like, just a couple of inches could have caused the phenomenon that led to the 'copter's crash.

I've read several articles about the possible stealth technology apparent in the photos of the wrecked tail-boom and none of the sources have suggested it was silent or invisible. I didn't mean to inadvertently imply that this was so. Apparently, if one increases the number of rotors and reduces their size, the helicopter makes less noise. Also, the matte grey paint job is supposed to help confuse IR seekers on shoulder-launched SAMs. The angles of the tail-boom surface and the unusual rotor cap are supposed to reduce the copter's radar signature.

It's possible that the crew had trained in a "standard" spec-ops HH-60 and some little difference in the "stealth" version's performance could have contributed to the crash. Also keep in mind that the choppers had to fly over some very high mountains in order to get to Abbatabad. It's possible that engine strain or something to that effect contributed to the crash.

[Sanjuro]

By at least one standard, it was a good landing anyway- any landing is a good landing if you walk away from it!

[dragoon500ly]

There may another reason for for the chopper crash. Even the best quality NVGs have issues with depth perception. Landing in an enclosed compound, with partial cloud cover would create problems for pilots using NVGs. Some of the stories that are floating around state that the pilot may have hit either a wall or one of the compound's building with a rotor which would have caused the crash.

But no one was reported hurt in the crash, OBL was killed, lots of intell was gathered and everyone made it home safe.

In my book, a successful operation!