OT: China's new carrier

[ShadoWarrior]

But if the Chinese start massing its navy, landing craft and army across the Taiwan Strait I think someone is going to notice this fairly quickly.

If they do that. The Chinese do not have to do an Overlord or Sealion massing of forces before launching an invasion. Why telegraph intentions when you don't need to? They have enough ships and transport planes within range of Taiwan to launch a surprise attack at almost any time. Most ROC invasion scenarios begin with a simulated detection of waves of strike aircraft which will precede airborne landings. Those airborne assaults will be much larger in scale than those of D-Day. There would be Chinese troops already on the ground on Taiwan before any ships left their mainland harbors.

[ShadoWarrior]

How I see this is that China at the moment doesn't have the logistical capability to pull of a sucessful invasion of Taiwan.

I believe that's wishful thinking.

It also doesn't have the air or naval power to dominate the airspace or seaways around Taiwan once America commits itself to the defence of Taiwan.

The real issue is whether the Chinese can present a fait accompli before the US can do anything about it. Taiwan lacks the firepower to repel an invasion, and the US lacks sufficient force on station to do so either. Only the deterrent of China starting a war with the US keeps Taiwan free. Taiwan falls no matter what. The only question is if the US is willing to go to war with China (just as the UK and France went to war with Nazi Germany knowing they couldn't stop the Germans from taking Poland).

[RN7]

If they do that. The Chinese do not have to do an Overlord or Sealion massing of forces before launching an invasion. Why telegraph intentions when you don't need to? They have enough ships and transport planes within range of Taiwan to launch a surprise attack at almost any time. Most ROC invasion scenarios begin with a simulated detection of waves of strike aircraft which will precede airborne landings. Those airborne assaults will be much larger in scale than those of D-Day. There would be Chinese troops already on the ground on Taiwan before any ships left their mainland harbors.

Well if the Taiwanese have already predicted how the Chinese are going to invade them, then they probably will already know what the Chinese are up to and how their going to try and invade them.

Taiwan does have a large and sophisticated air defence network with modern radars and Patriot, Hawk Phase III and Sky Bow II long ranged SAMs, E-2 AWACS and over 350 fighters. You can't just send in transport planes loaded with troops over a heavily defended country without eliminating the air defence network, which will take some time even in the unlikely event that America didn't intervene. Also I think mass paratroop drops are probably a thing of the past, and have been since the development of airmobile helcopters. Also paratroops are fairly lightly armed troops and have to be reinforced, the Taiwanese army has over 900 tanks and thousands of AFVs. Also if China planned to reinforce its paratroops then it would have to assemble armour, artillery, troops and supplies on the mainland in large numbers to be shipped over on Chinese landing craft and cargo ships, all of which wouldn't go unnoticed to American satellites.

[ShadoWarrior]

Taiwan does have a large and sophisticated air defence network with modern radars and Patriot, Hawk Phase III and Sky Bow II long ranged SAMs, E-2 AWACS and over 350 fighters. You can't just send in transport planes loaded with troops over a heavily defended country without eliminating the air defence network, which will take some time even in the unlikely event that America didn't intervene.

No argument. But, as someone else likes to point out, technology has its weakness, and swamping the defenders is likely. Sure, the Chicom losses would be horrendous. Since when do the Chicom leaders care about killing thousands (or millions) of their own? Short answer is they don't. Is it sustainable? No. Does it need to be? No. The Chicoms throw several hundred planes and thousands of missiles at Taiwan, both of which they have. Eventually the defenders run out of defenses. The only question is how long it takes.

Also I think mass paratroop drops are probably a thing of the past, and have been since the development of airmobile helcopters. Also paratroops are fairly lightly armed troops and have to be reinforced, the Taiwanese army has over 900 tanks and thousands of AFVs.

Manpack AT missiles are a lot cheaper than the AFVs they're meant to take out, they're highly effective, and all modern armies have thousands of them. They are readily carried even by airborne troops. HALO drops after most of the airspace over Taiwan is secured allows the Chicoms to get a toehold on the island and capture key objectives, clearing the way for second-wave airmobile reinforcements, which in turn secure more objectives clearing the way for third-wave amphib reinforcements.

The only issue is if the PLA air force can achieve air supremacy before the US arrives to kick serious butt. They don't even have to achieve it and maintain it for long. Just long enough to allow airborne/airmobile forces to get a toehold. Once Chicom forces are already on Taiwanese soil the nature of the battle becomes much more thorny for the good guys.

Also if China planned to reinforce its paratroops then it would have to assemble armour, artillery, troops and supplies on the mainland in large numbers to be shipped over on Chinese landing craft and cargo ships, all of which wouldn't go unnoticed to American satellites.

It would go unnoticed if the loading happened over a long enough period of time, and was done when the sats weren't overhead. You can put an awful lot of troops and vehicles on a commercial RO-RO and no one would be the wiser until said ship started spewing its cargo on to the docks. Surprise!

[RN7]

I believe that's wishful thinking.

The real issue is whether the Chinese can present a fait accompli before the US can do anything about it. Taiwan lacks the firepower to repel an invasion, and the US lacks sufficient force on station to do so either. Only the deterrent of China starting a war with the US keeps Taiwan free. Taiwan falls no matter what. The only question is if the US is willing to go to war with China (just as the UK and France went to war with Nazi Germany knowing they couldn't stop the Germans from taking Poland).

Taiwan has been preparing for an invasion from mainland China since 1949. China's amphibous assault fleet is limited to smaller vessels with limited sea lift capacity, and they currently have only LPD with a capacity of 800 troops, a few helicopters and 20 vehicles. They do have a large number of large and small landing ships, but they would be extremely vulnerable to air and naval attack from both Taiwanese and American forces. American could stop China from invading Taiwan without even bothering to attack the Chinese mainland outside of a few strikes on targets that might be considered dangerous to American forces operating in and around Taiwan, and would seriously maul Chinese naval and air forces in the process of doing so.

[RN7]

No argument. But, as someone else likes to point out, technology has its weakness, and swamping the defenders is likely. Sure, the Chicom losses would be horrendous. Since when do the Chicom leaders care about killing thousands (or millions) of their own? Short answer is they don't. Is it sustainable? No. Does it need to be? No. The Chicoms throw several hundred planes and thousands of missiles at Taiwan, both of which they have. Eventually the defenders run out of defenses. The only question is how long it takes.


Manpack AT missiles are a lot cheaper than the AFVs they're meant to take out, they're highly effective, and all modern armies have thousands of them. They are readily carried even by airborne troops. HALO drops after most of the airspace over Taiwan is secured allows the Chicoms to get a toehold on the island and capture key objectives, clearing the way for second-wave airmobile reinforcements, which in turn secure more objectives clearing the way for third-wave amphib reinforcements.

The only issue is if the PLA air force can achieve air supremacy before the US arrives to kick serious butt. They don't even have to achieve it and maintain it for long. Just long enough to allow airborne/airmobile forces to get a toehold. Once Chicom forces are already on Taiwanese soil the nature of the battle becomes much more thorny for the good guys.


It would go unnoticed if the loading happened over a long enough period of time, and was done when the sats weren't overhead. You can put an awful lot of troops and vehicles on a commercial RO-RO and no one would be the wiser until said ship started spewing its cargo on to the docks. Surprise!

Maybe in Hollywood.

[ShadoWarrior]

American could stop China from invading Taiwan without even bothering to attack the Chinese mainland outside of a few strikes on targets that might be considered dangerous to American forces operating in and around Taiwan, and would seriously maul Chinese naval and air forces in the process of doing so.

That's predicated on the assumption that American sea and air power was already on station. Last I checked we don't have a CBG on permanent station at Taiwan. So any theater AD would have to rely solely on Taiwanese assets until US assets got to the AO.

[RN7]

That's predicated on the assumption that American sea and air power was already on station. Last I checked we don't have a CBG on permanent station at Taiwan. So any theater AD would have to rely solely on Taiwanese assets until US assets got to the AO.

But there are six navy carrier strike groups assigned to the US Pacific Fleet, including one based in Japan. There are also two USAF fighter wings based in Japan, two more based in South Korea and another based in Hawaii, and a Marine Air Wing based in Okinawa.

[ShadoWarrior]

I do believe I mentioned something regarding the Chicoms needing to achieve air supremacy before the US got assets into the AO. The invaders do have a window in which to do what they need to do. It's not a big window, either. They have however long it takes for F/A-18s to get to Taiwan from Japan at cruise speed.

Can the Chinese do it? Depends on how quickly they can suppress Taiwan's AD. Which in turn depends on a lot of technology, on both sides, that has not (yet) been tested in combat.

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

[Webstral]

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

Ain,c,"t that the truth,c,,"and not just for the US, either. Battle plans are highly perishable.

I wonder, though, whether economics haven,c,"t trumped the military options for the time being. China holds massive amounts of US debt. The temptation for Washington to renege on debt to the PRC as an opening salvo in Sino-American conflict would be enormous. The bean counters in Beijing probably regularly update their calculations of just how much this would cost China. Then, too, there is the issue of sanctions, cancelation of debt held in euro and other currencies. China,c,"s ability to invade and capture Taiwan may be less relevant than China,c,"s perception of the total cost.


Webstral

[ShadoWarrior]

Taiwan is worth trillions of dollars. Add up the liquidation values (not the much higher market values) of all the industrial and commercial companies on the island, plus the value of the land itself, plus the value of the (destined to be slave) labor force. It's a lot. Compared to that the US debt that China holds is essentially trivial.

But, if the ChiComs can get it without having to fire a shot, so much the better. Democracies are short-sighted and corporations (which manipulate politics in those democracies) are highly self-serving. Neither governments nor businesses, nor the masses of sheep, think in terms of decades. The ChiComs do.

[95th Rifleman]

A note on casualties.

War weariness is the killer factor in any conflict involving a democratic nation. If the conflict goes hot, China can sustain more casualties than America ever could. Vietnam proved that the key to defeating America is to kill enough soldiers, quickly enough to force the American people to make the US government back down.

[Targan]

But, if the ChiComs can get it without having to fire a shot, so much the better. Democracies are short-sighted and corporations (which manipulate politics in those democracies) are highly self-serving. Neither governments nor businesses, nor the masses of sheep, think in terms of decades. The ChiComs do.

Yup. When you've had essentially the same bureaucracy in place for the last 3000 years-plus, you have the mindset to play the long game.

[RN7]

I do believe I mentioned something regarding the Chicoms needing to achieve air supremacy before the US got assets into the AO. The invaders do have a window in which to do what they need to do. It's not a big window, either. They have however long it takes for F/A-18s to get to Taiwan from Japan at cruise speed.

Can the Chinese do it? Depends on how quickly they can suppress Taiwan's AD. Which in turn depends on a lot of technology, on both sides, that has not (yet) been tested in combat.

Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.

Well I would assume the Chinese would fail in any attempt to take Taiwan because they don't have the logistical capability to succesfully invade Taiwan, and their airforce and navy is not up to taking on the Americans.

[RN7]

Ain,c,"t that the truth,c,,"and not just for the US, either. Battle plans are highly perishable.

I wonder, though, whether economics haven,c,"t trumped the military options for the time being. China holds massive amounts of US debt. The temptation for Washington to renege on debt to the PRC as an opening salvo in Sino-American conflict would be enormous. The bean counters in Beijing probably regularly update their calculations of just how much this would cost China. Then, too, there is the issue of sanctions, cancelation of debt held in euro and other currencies. China,c,"s ability to invade and capture Taiwan may be less relevant than China,c,"s perception of the total cost.


Webstral

Also China is an export dependent economy, nearly 40% of its economy is fueled by exports, much of it by US, European and Japanese investment in China to manufacture products for export to developed markets. Wal-Mart is China's 7th largest export partner, just ahead of Britain.