Semi-OT A silghtly off timeline for T2K

[Mohoender]

2002

In the Caucasus, the Soviets, receiving increasing numbers of fresh troops by early spring renew their counter-insurgency operation against the Chechens. Again it is bloody and early reports even point out an unprecedented level of Russian cruelties. Nevertheless, it meets with tremendous success and most resistence is silenced within three weeks. Chechens paramilitary groups have been destroyed and those who surrender are sent to Siberia while survivors cross the border into Georgia. As a result, on March 5, Moscow takes that opportunity to declare war over that small country and invade it. Then, a blitzkrieg offensive storms it and the country is on its knees in just over a week. While air and naval action clears the Skys and the Black Sea, the Georgian army is overrun and surrenders after tremendous losses.

In Eastern Europe, NATO launches a major offensive and progress into Belarus, with Minsk getting in artillery range by early April. However, they fail to cut the sealane supplying Kaliningrad and Soviet troops there put up a spirited fight, remaining a serious thorn on NATOs side. Then, with the coming of summer, the NATO offensive gains momentum and by May 17, western forces are facing an all-out counter-attack by the Soviet Army which takes control of Latvia and Lithuania without warning. Within a week the Soviets advance in North-Eastern Poland as western forces begin to fall back. The retreat is successfull but has forced the allied command to make some hard choices taking several units out of the southern front. Then, the Czech Republic, which has fought alone for months, sees an oportunity to brake the stalemate and launches its own offensive braking NATOs front in mid-June. Finally, with the coming of the fall season, Soviet and Czech advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-German frontier while Warsaw is surrounded and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.

In Romania, the government had issued a law banning the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (Rom!niai Magyar Demokrata Szvetsg) from the political scene. Antigovernment demonstrations by Magyars (ethnic Hungarians) take place in several Transylvanian cities and are suppressed by Romanian riot control police, with some loss of life. Hungary protests the mistreatment of these people and, when the police shoots and kills a man crossing the border with Hungary, suspends diplomatic relations. Romania claims he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces but, three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. Police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what available troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests again, is ignored, and then declares war. The conflict remains local, however, as the fresh hungarian troops easily dominate the weak forces still available to Romania. Soon, Bucharest realizes that it doesnt have enough forces to face this new threat, a cease fire is signed within two weeks and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers.

As this is settled, the fronts in Romania and Ukraine enter a period of attritional warfare. This is short lived, however, and as spring turn to summer, more Soviet divisions, largely legmobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armored personnel carriers, enter the lines. The Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the ill trained Russian recruits but the weight of superior manpower begins to be felt. Finally, with NATO retreating in Poland and the Soviets dominating air and waters around the Black Sea, Bucharest and Ploesti fall on August 3 while the Ukrainian Army had lost control over 80% of its territory. Romania and Ukraine, isolated and exhausted, see no choice but to surrender. Neverhteless, several units refuse to obey and form the core of a strong guerilla. Whatever, as this front collapses more Soviet units are freed and are soon redirected toward other fronts.

This stunning victory also allows Bulgarian and Serbian forces to comit fully to the Balkan front where, by early fall, pressure on the Bosnian, Croatian and Greek Armies has seriously built up. Then, as difficulties increase, Athens and NATO blame Turkey for their lack of success while Anti-Turkish demonstrations are held all over Europe and even more so within Germany. There, hundreds are killed while thousands more are sent to internment camps despite several calls for moderations by what is left of the international community and even from NATO members. Soon, the neutral posture of Padania is equally critisized and, on November 10, a number of citizens from that country are also arrested in Munich and sent to these same camps as Ravenna protests. Two weeks later, a defense pact is signed between Turkey and Padania. Finally, on December 1, the Cypriot National Guard fires at several positions held by the Turks and Greece intervene almost immediately, sending troops and supplies. In addition, as fighting builds up between Athens and Ankara, Armenia sides with the Greek, attacks in Eastern Turkey and supplies weapons to the Kurds. Then, the Greek and Turkish navies hammer each other with significant losses but, at last, the Turks come up on top. Then, Padania supports Ankara when it declares the Aegean Sea to be closed to International shipping and, while NATO has not shown any intention to get involved, promises to intervene on Turkeys side if it tries to tip the balance in favor of Greece.

Further north, by late spring, NATOs Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. However, these vessels remain out of reach and NATO, now forced to fall back on all fronts, design a plan that must provide them with quick victory. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk. subjecting Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments. This is to be carried out simultaneously with a counter-offensive in Poland and on July 7 the ground operation is launched while the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory but instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and remnants of the Northern Fleet supported by what shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid July, two major naval fleets in the world are being shattered and fighting in the Great North peters out. Progressively, Soviet units are leaving to be redeployed to Belarus.

Altough this is not a real defeat, the loss of three more aircraft carrier is a serious blow to US citizens overconfidence in their navy. This combined to a news reporting that Shiite Iraq and Iran now ban oil exports to the West triggers a wind of panic among US population. Then, the Pentagone remains certain that a second front is needed, sees an oportunity in this and claims to have further evidences showing that the Iranian Mullahs are about to side with the Shanghai Pact and invade Saudi Arabia. Despite strong denial by both Iran and Iraq, a coalition is formed including France, UK, US and eight Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE). On September 2, the offensive is launched as Iraquian Sunni joins the battle. As the battle is raging in the suburbs of Baghdad, Syria gets involved and launches its own offensive in Northern Iraq. However, its troops are almost stopped on the border while US High command, despite its already heavy engagement in Europe, sends more troops and lands two Army Corps at Bandar Abbas and Bender Bushehr. Teheran is now aware that it needs more help and Mullahs effectively legalise the Tudeh (Iranian Communist Party). Soon after, supplies comes in from the Soviet Union as units from Caucasus and Central Asia enter the region.

In the meantime, in Lebanon, after Colonel Aql Hashem assassination (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Israel sends more units to the area. It also sends more supplies to the South Lebanese Army which expends fast to reach 5000 fighters. As a result, Hezbollah increases its attacks and rockets are soon hitting northern Israel daily but, finally, Tsahal moves first. On August 15, after a series of artillery bombardement and cross border airstrikes, the Israelis launch an attack that initially take the Lebanese by surprise but Hezbollah recovers quickly, sends more fighters to the front line and heavy fighting takes place in Southern Lebanon where Shia militias relie on an inovative type of fighting, using the best Soviet RPGs in massive attacks. Tsahal is losing tanks faster than usual and is stopped on the Litani River when the Palestinian Intifada turns to open warfare. Soon, seeing an oportunity to regain the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian Army launches its own offensive.

Israel, however, has been prepared for such an eventuality and the timely arrival of Israeli airborne troops deprive the Syrians of victory. Already engaged in Iraq, the Syrian Army has to fall back and Damascus now comes under israeli gun range. Moreover, operations in the Gaza Strip and Cisjordania are expended and, by early October, result in heavy civilian casualties among Palestinians. When more reports of Tsahal exactions comes in, Amman plead for Washington to put pressure on Tel-Aviv but it is refused and the King of Jordania withdraws from the coalition, sending troops into Cisjordania on November 1. Israel is taken by surprise and its forces are taking some really heavy losses while complete disaster is only avoided by emergency levees. Equally stunned by some of the reports, Oman and UAE declare neutrality and suspend oil exportations to the West while Algeria and Libya do the same, claiming support to Iran, Iraq and Syria.

As the conflict with Israel develops in parallel to the war between the coalition and Iran, the allies are progressing North, taking Basrah and Nasiriyah on November 15 (Iraq), seizing Ahvaz and Shiraz on November 16 (Iran) and threatening Kerman by November 19. This move stops when more Soviet troops enter the line two days later but Moscow fears that this wont be enough. Therefore, on November 29, the Soviets attempt to land in Northern Japan but the operation is short lived and the invading force is repelled four days later. However, this move has revealed the importance of the threat to all countries in the Pacific area and a new defensive treaty is signed on December 31 between five countries (US, UK, Japan, Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan). Going by the title of Treaty on Asian Cooperation and Security (TACS) it states that all members assume an obligation to assist each other in case of armed attack.

Also in Asia, tensions continue to grow between India and Pakistan. Following India's move, Pakistan responds by moving large numbers of its troops from the border with Afghanistan to the Indian border. By January, both countries have moved short range ballistic missiles closer to each other's border, and mortar and artillery fire are reported in Kashmir. Moreover, India has mobilized around 500,000 troops and three armored divisions on the Pakistani border concentrated along the Line of Control in Kashmir. Pakistan responds similarly, deploying around 300,000 troops to that region.For months, the situation remains uncertain but tensions escalates dramatically on May 14 when three gunmen kill 34 people in an army camp near Jammu, most of them the wives and children of Hindu and Sikh soldiers serving in Kashmir. Then, Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee and his cabinet grants the Army permission to attack Pakistani military targets and on May 18, India expels Pakistans ambassador. On May 20, Indian soldiers have entered Pakistan and progress as more troops are sent to the front.

By May 24, Gilgit is taken to the North, some Indian units are already closing on the Indus and heavy fighting takes place around Islamabad. On June 7, Islamabad has been heavily shelled, Multan and Bahwalpur have fallen, Hyderbd is threaten and the sealanes to Pakistan have been cut after a short naval campain that sees the defeat of the Pakistani fleet. On June 12, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf realizes that its armies could be defeated any moment and orders limited nuclear strikes on Indians rear guards and western cites. The next day at sunrise, three Indian cities (Bikaner, Jodhpur and Srinagar) are hit and destroy by MRBM while Pakistani airforce conducts half a dozen nuclear attacks on Indian rear troop concentrations. Now drawn into a nuclear conflict, India responds immediately and strikes but concentrates on Pakistan Army, avoiding to target the civilian population. Its only two days later, when a second Pakistani strike is conducted at more Indian cities (Chandigarh, Jaipur, Kndla and Simla), that New Delhi crosses the line and fire its own nukes at Pakistan cities. After that, the limited local exchange continues for three days to end with the full collapses of Pakistan facing widespread unrest, dissolution of legal structures and revolting military units now turning on each other. Meanwhile, badly bloodied Indian units withdraw in a hurry to help maintain order in the devastated western regions of India. Then, while it avoids the general chaos now striking Pakistan, India is no longer capable of supplying its population and central rule collapses as various regions declare independence.

The world is stunned as it faces its first true nuclear exchange and while the ongoing European conflict rages and expends, World trade cease to benefit from the war and contracts as it had never before. The Dow Jones had regained some color during the first six months of 2002, but it crashes on June 15 and loses almost 80% in a single week to end at 1273 points, a level comparing to that of the mid-1980s. International finance immediately collapses, stock exchanges are suspended everywhere and exchange rates between currencies are no longer recognized as the many countries still remaining outside of the conflicts only accept to trade in diamond, gold or good with a recognized strategic value. International trade has changed almost overnight, the level of exchanges drops and commodities shortages are known worldwide (even in countries still at peace) by early fall.

In Africa, all the wealth generated last year disapear and several countries can no longer import or export anything. Famines are added to fast spreading sicknesses and to a new increase in war intensity. New conflicts (Civil war in Zimbabwe, ethnic violance in Kenya, Ivorian civil war, Nigerian religious conflict and Touareg rebellion) are added to an already long list of fightings, wars that had ended sometime for years are revived (Agacher Strip war between Burkina Faso and Mali, Caprivi conflict in Namibia, Guinea-Bissau Civil War, MauritaniaSenegal Border War, Mozambican civil war and Republic of the Congo Civil War), existing wars continue to spread and expend now contaminating neighboring regions and, by years end, human casualties over the continent are already reaching apocaliptic levels. Only a dozen countries (Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo and Tunisia) remain at peace and among them the most notable is certainly South Africa. When Apartheid had been reinstated, civil unrest had grown and the country had slowly slipped into a civil war that was won by Pretoria in 2000. Still civil unrest remained a relaity until last year when the large amount of wealth generated resulted in a fair increase in the standards of living for the white minority but also for the blacks and coloured. Now the country remains one of the few to maintain a significant level of trade, generating even more wealth, it has formed a political alliance with Botswana and uses Walvis Bay (Namibia) to back the growing Caprivi insurgency.

Similar effects strike Latin America but the continent is better prepared to face the crisis and no country officially collapses. Nevertheless, insurgencies in the Andes continue and Peru loses control over half of its territory. The situation is even worse in Colombia where, despite what appears, the government fall to the Cartels. Meanwhile, Hugo Chavez establishes the Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra Amrica (ALBA), a cooperation organization based on the idea of social, political, and economic integration between countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Soon, membership grows to reach nine countries: Antigua & Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Grenada, Nicaragua, Saint Vincent & Grenadines and Venezuela.

Into Central America, the Mexican government fall to be replaced by a coalition made of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and Partido de la Revoluci3n Democr!tica (PRD). Obviously this generates distrust from the US administration but that is reduced when, the new Mexican government suspend oil exportations to all countries but the USA. Elsewhere in Central America, insurgencies are kept at bay but standards of living drop almost as much as in Africa and famines are only avoided through a rapid conversion of the highly productive local agriculture. Panama is the sole exception as the world situation pushes Washington to increase its military presence on the Panama Canal.

Further south, the major Latin Amlerican countries also organize themselves and MERCOSUR (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) evolves to integrate a defensive component. As soon as this occurs, troops from all member states are sent to Brazil which has been facing a general uprising within its major Favelas for months in Rio de Janeiro and SLo Paulo but also in eight other cities (Belem, B. Horizonte, Campinas, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Guarulhos, Osasco and Salvador. Chile, however, closes its border, issues a partial mobilization orders and suspends the democratic government it had established in the late 1980s.

[Mohoender]

corrected, thank you

2003 posted, sorry and placed 2004 and 2005 in the right place

[cavtroop]

I absolutely love alternate histories! Havent read this one yet, but Im going to copypasta it to a pdf so I can read it off line

[atiff]

Nice work - but 2003 appears to be missing from the above posts

Andrew

[Mohoender]

2003

In Europe, NATO has concentrated more troops in Western Poland and the progression of Shanghai Pact units slows down and it is only by early February that advanced elements cross the Polish frontier into Eastern Germany. However, it doesnt stop and as they move into Brandenburg and Sachsen, a number of former East-german soldiers join them and Moscow organize the oeKarl Marx Korps, a grand name for a unit that is roughly the size of a brigade.

On May 27, it has become clear that, without aid, forces in the Balkans will be defeated and NATO sends a a small coprs composed of a few US division that lands at Split. Meanwhile, a convoy, accompanied by insufficient covering force, is making the run to the port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunitions and equipments when it is intercepted by fleet elements of the Turkish Navy. In the ensuing night action, the Turks inflicts substantial losses to NATO warships and capture about two third of the slow transports, sinking the others andescaping unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Turkish naval bases and, on June 1, Turkey declares war against NATO while Padania, in compliance with its treaty obligations, follow suit on June 2. Immediately, Padanian airmobile, alpine, and armored units cross the mountain passes into Austrian Tyrolia where scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly before being overwhelmed. By mid-month, Padanian mechanized forces are debouching into southern Germany, advanced elements are attacking German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich and, on June 22, units in Austria briefly link with the Red Army. Other units are rapidly pushing south and within days the Napoli Republic is reduced to the sole Sicily with most of its ships captured at Taranto.

Meanwhile, the Turkish army achieves victory over Armenia and pushes West into Greek Macedonia, also sinking most remaining Greek ships in the following month. As a result, before Padania begins feeling the logistical pinch, the Balkan Front threaten to collapse while, further West, the French are stuck on the Alpine range. Moreover, Ankara, altough still not allied to the Shanghai Pact, starts to send supplies to Iran, Syria and USSR, opening the Bosphorus to Soviet ships, military and civilians alike.

Some reports even signal the growing presence of Turkish soldiers in the Middle East where the Egyptian government facing massive internal unrest orders military units to repress it. However, it evolves in an unexpected manner when the army sides with the protesters and, on May 1, Hosni Mubarak falls to a military coup. Then, the commitee of generals orders Egyptian units in Iraq to join with Iran and Syria, declares war on Israel, closes the Suez Canal and attacks through the Sinai desert, dramatically changing the military balance over the region. Now outnumbered, the coalition forces fall back and take up fortified defensive positions to hold their ground. Meanwhile, Israel is forced to divert part of its forces from its other front to face this new threat. Hopefully for them, the sudden revolution has resulted in several officers defections among Egyptian Armed Forces and military efficiency is no longer as high as it was.

In Asia, the TASC treaty is seen as a last provocation and all Asian Shanghai Pact members enter the war on February 25. Then, the Chinese military surpass the expectations of most analysts in its ability to mobilize its forces and several Chinese divisions are seen fighting in Korea as soon as March 1. Pressure also quickly builds up on the British forces defending Hong Kong and after a week of very harsh urban warfare, these troops are evacuated. During this first stage ofthe war in Asia, the South Korean and Taiwanese fleets sustain some really heavy losses and when Hong Kong is left to the Chinese, fear of an invasion of Taiwan grows. However, the US NAVY and the JMSDF assemble a most impressive naval force and, in a series of bitter engagements, destroy the opposing forces: surviving ships of the Chinese bluewater navy remain in anchor while the Soviet Pacific Fleet loses almost eighty percent of its surface vessels.

Now, ANZUS becomes involved and reinforcements are brought to South Korea where they start their own push toward the 38th parrallel, crossing it within weeks and bringing fighting to Pyongyang. Meanwhile, the allied naval forces have enough strength to provide more than ample cover to organize a major landing in Hong Kong. Its involving troops from Philippines, Taiwan, UK and US which start a push toward central China. Vietnam seizing the oportunity also sends an army into Yunnan and Guangxi facing heavy fighting in southern China. All enjoy rapid initial success, and tank columns roar deep into southern and central China. While the allied continued to make impressive gains up to late May, their losses mounted and the tempo of advance goes down. By late June, large bodies of Chinese citizens militia are now operating behind the allied front lines, attacking installations and destroying supply convoy. Moreover, despite several attempts, the Allied fail to disrupt the military industry located in the north and more equipments are coming out every day. As a result, when the main Chinese and Soviet conventional forces counter-attack, large pockets of allied troops are formed. The Vietnamese experiences the most important losses but allied units, while able to fight their way out of the pockets, are losing much in the process. The front is shattered and troop that were on the offensive a few days before begin major withdrawals all along the front line as mobile elements of the Chinese Army rush into victorious pursuit.
In July, the Vietnamese have fallen back behind their borders and Shanghai Pact units have crossed the 38th parallel again. As a result, with Pact and Padanian units obviously preparing a combine offensive from Austria while closing on Berlin, Allied High Command is to decide upon the limited use of nuclear weapons. On August 15, the use of tactical nuclear weapons is accepted with the exception of France and Belgium which both leave NATO signing a separte peace with the Shanghai Pact, Padania, Turkey and Iran. Two days later, they are pulling out from the various fronts and their withdrawal is achieved when, on september 15, the first tactical nukes are used in the Far East. These nuclear strikes over the fields are carried out on a failrly massive scale and Pact mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads. Chinese population and industrial centers, however, are spared but this facts doesnt prevent widespread panic. Then, as the roads are choked with refugees fleeing from all cities, the communication and transportation system, already stretched to the near breaking point, disintegrates. Moreover, the Chinese response has met with little success as allied forward units were dispersed and prepared. The handful of Chinese bombers attempting to conduct low-level penetration raids are all intercepted and destroyed. The ICBM bases have been destroyed by air strikes conducted with B-2 bombers and, within a week, the Chinese riposte is spent. Taiwan, however, is devastated by several SRBM carrying nuclear warheads while a few IRBM attacks on Japan and Philippines population centers are effective nonetheless. Whatever, China begins a rapid slide into anarchy and civil disorder. A month later, a number of local officers assume the title of Warlords and establish independent states, refusing to obey further orders from the central government at Beijing. The government itself is overthrown on October 8 and, one after the other, the warlords capitulate and begin restoring internal order. Manchuria alone remains faithfull to the Shanghai Pact, still participating in the war and sustaining a second wave of nukes that destroys much of its industrial capability. Once more, general chaos in Manchuria is avoided when Soviet troops move in to secure what is left of Urban and Industrial complexes. Nevertheless, these forces are seldom welcomed and they face a high level of popolar hostility.

In Europe, the nukes are used sparingly at first but the forward elements of both armies are hit hard. By late october, the Soviet forces that had entered Germany are engaged in a general withdrawal, practicing a careful scorched earth policy as they fall back. In the Balkan, NATO forces had also begun an offensive but this comes to a brutal stop when Greece collapses in late November and turns into a collection of city states. Simultaneously, the Bosniak-Croat alliance also begins to break up but US divisions are pushing forward and the one-sided use of nukes save the situation. Then, Serbian forces are in turn on the verge of being destroyed when the arrival of Russian reserves stops the allied columns before they reach Beograds suburb.

Meanwhile, as summer turns to fall, Padania is facing major air stikes and an overall naval offensive by NATO. In an attempt to conquer the all of Italy, Portuguese, Spanish and U.S. troops, reinforced by remnants of the Napoli Republic Army, land in Calabria and Campania, starting to push North. In a hury, Padanian forces, pulling out of Austria and Southern Germany, establish strong defensive position on the Alpine passes and rush south, finally stopping the invaders to the south of lAquila in the Abruzzo. At sea, a NATO task force faces a combined fleet of Padanian and Turkish vessels soon strengthen by Arab Ships (Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Syria). Fighting last for two days until NATO breafly opens the sealanes to Croatian harbours and destroys most opposing vessels. Suddenly, while NATO ships are engaged in pursuit against the last Padanian and Turkish ships, the Soviet Black Sea Fleet shows up. NATOs fleet has been dispersed and now suffers a defeat matching that it inflicted on Padania over the past hours. On the outcome, the Meditteranean Sea is now definitely closed to standard allied shipping while the troops operating in southern Italy are quickly withdrawn.

In the Middle-East, the exchange initially carried out by Israel brakes the stalemate when Amman, Beyrouth, Damascus, Teheran, Karaj and Mashad are destroyed. The Coalition forces immediately leave their position and push forward again, meeting with general success but their offensive ends when the Soviets respond. Tupolev bombers launch a number of cruise missiles that hit Doha, Kuwait City and Tel-Aviv as well as the Ghawar and Safaniya oil fields of Saudi Arabia. After that, the use of nukes in the region cease entirely and the forces left turn back to the attrition war they had conducted for months. This might be explained by the fact that the other oil fields were already burning and both sides might have attempted to preserve what was left but, whatever, this is the first region where the conflict slowly enters a frozen postures in which nor peace nor war is clearly defined. Moreover, the Saudi Royal family is assassinated and the Saudis political situation evolved into a Civil war opposing the former Kingdom of Hejaz, backed by SANG units, to the tribes that have returned to the desert. As a result, chaos spreads to most of the Arabian Peninsula with Oman and UAE, escaping it, maintaining peace and establishing an alliance with France.

Africas slide into chaos acelerates with most war turning to Ethnic conflicts while modern weapons are mostly being replaced with matchets and spears again. Most of the surviving states understand that they wont survive very long on their own and almost all side with one side or the other. As Ghana is in turn overwhelmed by Ethnic violences, Benin and Togo merge into the Republic of Dahomey which first move is to sign a treaty to become part of the recently created Franco-Belgian Union (FBU). Almost immediately, French military units that, prior to the war, had been located to Abidjan are now sent to the new republic where they help maintain order. Then, five more countries (Cameroon, Djibouti, Gabon, Senegal and Tunisia) join the FBU bringing to the new political entity a number of raw materials that improve its viability. It, however, doesnt mean that these areas escape entirely from the general insurgency but insteed it implies that they get enough support to keep them under control. On the African East Coast, Kenya and Zanzibar are the sole political entity to survive with Kenya opening its refinery to US troops in exchange for a permanent garrison and Zanzibar establishing an independent Popular Republic. To the south, South Africa, asserts its control over Botswana and pacify Namibia as it increases the strength of its military, expends its navy and establishes a number of trade agreements with Chile, FBU and MERCOSUR. It, then, engages its forces in various border conflicts with its neighbors going to the extrimity of launching three nuclear bombs on Angola, Mozambique and Namibia. When it comes to internal matters , Apartheid is maintained but coloured people are granted more freedom as the government of Pretoria realizes that it needs greater reliable support.

[Mohoender]

Oops! Miss-post

[Mohoender]

2004

With the elimination of China and the de facto dissolution of the Shanghai Pact, USSR finds itself in a very bad situation when NATO air units begin making some deep nuclear strikes against communication hubs in Belarus and western Russia. USSR responds with theater nuclear missiles, launching them against an array of industrial targets and port cities in Netherlands and Germany. In turn, NATO uses similar strikes on industrial targets and major port cities deeper in Russia. Meanwhile, boomers continue their cat and mouse game with attack submarines while both sides engage in a major anti-satellite campaign throughout spring as the exchanges remains limited, both sides hesitating to target the landbased ICBM of the other. Finally, the Soviet Union crosses the line on July 4 when a number of SS18 Satan wreak havoc among US ICBM and command bases. An additional SS18 is targeted at Australia and destroys communication centers there a few hours ahead of high altitude bursts that generate a large amount of EMPs and destroy much electrical power capability over Northern America and the Pacific. Most of the surveillance satellite networks had been dissabled and the US had been warn with some delay but their reponse if late comes and the escalation continues for two days until all boomers are rated as destroyed.

Netherlands, Poland and UK are the most hard hit nations but elsewhere industrial targets clearly vital to the war effort are also targeted (transportation, communication, oil fields, refineries). Even, some industrial and oil centers in neutral nations are blown with the last attack conducted by NATO on French oil and harbor facilities of the Atlantic coast. Then, as the overall destruction appears to be much lighter than expected, general chaos following the exchange prevents repairs outside of spared countries. In the fields, the situation gets out of hand and goes from bad to worse for both sides. The average strength of NATO combat divisions at the front has fallen to about 8,000, with US divisions often running at half of that. Soviet divisions now vary widely in strength, running from 500 to 10,000 effectives, but mostly in the 2000-4000 range. Lack of fuel, spare parts, and ammunition paralyze the armies, no major actions are taken during the second half of that year and military command structures increasingly refuse to obey orders. Nevertheless, military casualties have been much lower than casualties among civilians and only them retain the means of securing and distributing rations. Everywhere people are calling for peace but, as civilian political command structures crumble and, then, collapse, nobody seem to be willing to negotiate it. Finally, among civilians, fear and despair open the way to anger and the populations revolt. In the USA, various states even mobilize what they can (peoples militia or state controlled military units) and turn on the federal institution. Fighting is unequal but brutal and continues over the winter season.

Within, Western Europe and the Pact, the situation varies greatly with countries collapsing while other face revolts. In some regions, the military is strong enough to take over, establishing military dictatorships either at local or national level (This is the case in Spain and Turkey). Nevertheless, on this continent, countries that have not been party to the war mostly escape chaos and keep their pre-war political structure despite often declaring martial law. Within these countries living conditions are better but not ideal as everywhere the brutal stop of global exchange results in shortages of all sort.

In the Middle East, it seems that except for the small exchange that took place, no more nukes had hit the region. However, the level of destruction is really high and proves beyond any doubt that conventional bombing can still be highly destructive. All major cities are damaged to some extend, production facilities have been largely destroyed, energy supply is at its lowest and most oil fields are still burning and it seems that this should continue for months. As a matter of facts only a trickle of oil is now going out of the region while fighting continues.

In North Africa most oil fields and various cities have been destroyed (Casablanca, Rabat and Tripoli) but Egypt is the sole country subjected to major nuclear strikes that leveled Alexandria, Cairo and many cities in the Nile Delta. Moreover, the Suez Canal has been destroyed and the Hassuan Dam broke, flooding the Nile Valey on a biblical scale. In Algeria, the long lasting civil war becomes particularly bloody and chaos now prevails with only local governements remaining. Tunisia is spared. Meanwhile, in Sub-Saharian Africa, the various ethnic wars had turned to a real frenzy but the handfull of governments that survive seem to be slowly stabilizing. Thisi is obvious in South Africa where the new racial laws granting equality between White, Coloured and Asians, only leaving the Black aside, are paying back.

Asia which was hit early is, however, spared by the main exchange and suffers more from widespread instability. Most governement have collapsed and petty wars are everywhere achieving to bring chaos to the region. Casualty levels are therefore less important than in other regions of the world but local conflicts and the various natural disasters that start to hit the region hamper the governements ability to rebuilt stable societies. A major exception comes from Oceania which has been largely spared by the war except for the strikes on the empty spaces of Australia. As a result, governments dont collapse and industries (damaged by EMPs) are quickly rebuilt. In addition, talk starts early about the establishment of a political union that could help the region defend itself.

Meanwhile, throughout Latin America, the situation remains mostly as it was with a balance between insurgent movements, drug cartels influence and fledging governments virtually unchanged. Then, the fairly large political entities (by that time standards) that have grown over the past years gain in stability and achieve an increased level of prosperity. The gap between poors and wealthy continues to grow but these societies appear to be functional and quite well of. People even look at these places with growing envy and hunger.

[Mohoender]

2005

The winter of 2004-2005 is particularly cold. Civilian war casualties in many industrialized nations has reached almost 15 percent by the turn of the year. In these countries communication and transportation systems have been wiped out, food distribution has become almost impossible and the few functionning releif operations have to be cancelled. All over the northern hemisphere, in the wake of nuclear war and widespread unrest comes famine on a scale previously undreamed of, but the worst is yet to come. The exceptionally cold winter delayed simultaneous epidemics but, with the spring thaw, the millions of unburied dead finally bring on the epidemics the remaining medical professionals had dreaded but were powerless to prevent. Plague, typhoid, cholera, typhus, and many other diseases sweeped through the worlds population. HIV and Tuberculosis are now spreading faster everywhere and not only in Africa but the worst comes from SARS and regular flu. By the time they have run their courses, the global casualty rate will be 60%. It is within this chaos that the new world is being shaped.

France, Belgium and Luxembourg had formed the Franco-Belgian Union (FBU) only two years ago and have since been joined by a few countries from Africa and the Middle East (Cameroon, Dahomey, Djibouti, Gabon, Oman, Senegal, Tunisia and UAE). France and Belgium have been hit lightly essentially on their Atlantic coast and have lost all refineries there when Antwerp, Dunkirk, Le Have and Nantes are destroyed. However, when Strasbourg and Toulouse are hit, Paris already has evidences pointing at NATO and orders one of the two SNLE at sea to retaliate. Two missiles are, then, launched at the USA resulting in heavy damages when compare to the number of targets striked. Frances insights of NATO procedures has granted it with a major advantage and in fear to see its last defense being shatered, NATO ensures Paris, that France is no longer a target. Meanwhile, Martial law is enforced nationwide and, as refugees begin flooding across their borders, the government closes its frontiers while the army begins to turn people back with gunfire. In the Pyrenneans, there are several skirmishes with rogue Spanish units as people try to cross into south-western France. In the North, the army is authorized to move west to the Rhine to secure a solid geographical barrier and it results in a short but violent war with Germany and Netherlands. Then, as refugees pile up on the frontier, Saarland is attached to France but a large lawless zone springs into existence where unrest and fighting for food are followed by mass starvation and disease, until this buffer zone becomes barren and empty.

Germany has retained a central government which is now taken over by the military and rules from Nuremberg. However, the country has suffered extensive damages in some regions and entire areas escape its rule. Netherlands have seen their main cities being destroyed and the country is now under partial occupation by the French Army. Austria composes with foreign troops residing on its soil. In the West, German rule is widely accepted and what is left of the Austrian Army merges with the Bundeswehr. In the East, a communist government is formed at Vienna and rules with the help of the Soviet units isolated in the country.

In what was Italy, Milano and Torino had been nuked but the pre-war political split survives. Nevertheless, the Roman Catholic Church has become increasingly influencial again and weight on all political affairs. It has recently convinced Padania to withdraw from the South and the Napoli Republic is de facto independent again. It escapes any kind of central rule while local leadership is highly corrupted and effectivily controlled by the Mafia but Rome has allied itself with the criminal organization, exercising a joint rule over the area.

In the Iberian Peninsula, Spain and Portugal were hit by the nukes with main oil refineries and capital cities being targeted. That had devastating effects and central governments are both a shambles. Gibraltar remains organized and under British control but the area within 20 kilometers of it are in anarchy as the refinery nearby was hit by a nuke. In Portugal, a functional government has been established over the North, at Braga, and controls the nine northern districts along the former Spanish region of Gallicia. In Spain, Andalusia and Catalogna have declared independence and are now forming republics of their own. Madrid has been whipped out and, within the other autonomous communities, a few cities have established almost feudal rules and provide limited protection to locals. Elsewhere, populations survive behind independent and insular walled towns while most land is terrorized and threaten by roving bands of Guardia Civil, GNR and army units which lead a semi marauder extortionist existence.

The Balkans and their surrendings (Slovenia, Romania and Turkey) are a collection of various situations with regions falling under foreign rules, limited areas of stability, widespread chaos and political turmoil on top of an ongoing war that shows no sign of heating down. A similar situation now plagues Ukraine where several military units turn on their former Soviet masters while the former Ukrainian military organized itself among various movements pushing for independence but also conducting several internal feud. As a result of this lack of unity, Soviet forces manage to retain a fragile control over Crimea and over a vital coridor linking Belarus to Romania. The other states in East-central Europe show different situations. Hungary is stable and having escaped the war almost entirely now supplies all sides depending on their hability to pay. Slovakia has fallen under local rule with broad insular areas facing the constant threat of marauders. The Czech Republic is on its knees with Prague grounded and the other cities heavily shelled. Local stability is provided through military rule and the extensive damages suffered by both the industrial and communication networks seriously hamper any rebuilding efforts for years to come. Poland is simply sorched with only a few survivors ruled by national and foreign military units which established themselves in various cantonments nationwide.

UK has been heavily nuked and is now facing a full scale civil war. Survivors of the prewar government have gathered around Prince William which has been crown as King William V (he is nicknamed oeKing Bill). His Majestys Government (HMG) established itself at Portsmouth and the new government immediately engage in military operations intended to restore full sovereignty over the realm. So far, this has been met with very limited success and the state only rules over the South-East. Scotland and Wales have become independent states along Cornwall while over most of England, surviving cities had declared independence when it became obvious that no immediate help could be expected from government officials.

Scandinavia escaped almost entirely unspoiled with the exception of northern Norway and eastern Finland. However, since the beginning of the year, various governments express growing concern in front of the decaying situation that plague USSR. In order to adress this issue the various head of states meat at Kalmar on September 1 when three days earlier, Soviet High Command for Leningrad Military District has launched a large scale offensive in Sweden in an attempt to seize production facilities and raw materials there. On September 5, while Denmark withdraws, the oeNew Kalmar Union is signed between Finland, Norway and Sweden which are now facing this new threat together. This comes as a very bad surprise to the Soviets which dont have enough troops to face the combined forces of the Scandinavian countries. Gotland Island had already been seized but everywhere else, Soviet units retreat as they prove no match for the Swedes and risk to be cut by the Finns. As winter comes, entire Soviet units disolve, many others turn marauder and threaten the wild space of Finland.

This bold move reflects the growing instability that has plagued the Soviet Union for months. Remote cities turn away from Moscow, people rise up and Republics declare independence, taking control of their remaining military. Regional and frontline commanders refuse to obey central orders and take initiative of their own, trying to carve petty kingdoms for themselves. It is in the wake of this mess that Marshal Aleksei M. Ivanovsky stages a military coup in Moscow, on December 20, overthrowing the Soviet government and establishing the Committee for the Salvation of the Motherland (KCR in its Russian acronym). Compared to pre-war government, KCR is weak but it is, nevertheless, responsible for some outstanding achievements. Limited power is restored to Moscow, limited production starts again and some supplies are sent to various military units. At last, KCR starts to work at restoring part of the railways, paving the way to a semblance of stability. The task, however, is gigantic and might take decades to be achieved.

In North America, as civil war rages, a flood of hungry refugees begin crossing the Rio Grande into Mexico. This is too much for the socialist coalition government which immediately joins ALBA and establishes a number of large refugee camps. Over, summer, with the heat going up, these camps start to be touched by widespread food riots and the Mexican government orders this violence to be dealt with military force. Border states protest, form a loose coalition and start to mass what troops they can gather to the Mexican border. Hoping to counter this threat, Mexican army units cross the Rio Grande but this move provides an oportunity to the US Joint Chief of Staff who calls on American patriotism. Unexpectidly, unrest dries down in weeks, people gather in mass to federal military compounds as units, understrength and armed with a broad collection of weapons, are quickly shifted South. Scattered fighting grows into open warfare while ALBA declares war on behalf of the Mexican government. Mexican light armored columns, soon backed by the Cubans and the ragtag Soviet Division oeLatin America, starts their drive Northeast toward Arkansas and Northwest into southern California. To the North, the Soviet Command for the Far East gathers what it can and launches its last offensive over January and February landing an army corps in Alaska where it progresses quickly. However, as they reach Juneau and Whitehorse (Canada) over summer they are met with fierce resistance from US and Canadian troops. Then, when their supply lines are cut by remnants of the US 3rd Fleet sinking what is left of the Soviet Pacific Fleet, progression comes to a brutal halt. Most retreat but several isolated units declare themselves in favor of NATO while others simply dissolve or turn marauders.

Also at sea, remnants the US 4th Fleet has taken action against ALBA and does its best to achieve supremacy. This fleet, however, has very reduced assets and control of the seas is hardly ever achieved. It cannot even prevent the landing of Cuban and Venezuelian forces in Florida and Texas. For a time, it appears that the southern part of US will fall to the invaders but that couldnt be admited and the cruiser oeVicksburg is ordered to launch a number of nuclear cruise missile at Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Before the cruiser is sunk, its actions result in the grounding of Caracas, Maracaibo, La Havana and Mexico City along all oil refineries but the smallest one at Ciudad Madero. Nevertheless, that last refinery sustain some serious damages from conventional strikes and its output is reduced to one third of its past maximum. This, the last nulcear strike ever conducted during the war, ends military operations and brings instability among members of ALBA, soon resulting in the dissolution of the alliance and triggering a civil war into Mexico. Meanwhile, military units isolated in Florida are crushed by New American activists fighting alongside Cuban Americans as anarchy spreads again to the USA. Nevertheless, a truce holds between federal and anti-federal forces but when Congress reconvenes for the first time since what is now known as oeThe Exchange, several senators and congressmen among the surviving ones dont attend.

That doesnt forbid Senator John Broward (D, Ark), former governor of Arkansas who appointed himself to fill one of the two vacant senatorial seats, to be elected President by the House of Representatives. General Jonathan Cummings, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, refuses to recognize the constitutional validity of the election, citing the lack of a proper quorum and irregularities in the credentials of the attending congressmen, and declare a continuation of martial law until such time as a new census becomes practical, that being necessary for a meaningful reapportionment of congressional seats and presidential electoral votes.

President Broward responds with a demand for Cummings' resignation, which Cummings declines to submit. While some federal military units side with the civilian government, a majority continue to take orders from the Joint Chiefs, particularly those overseas, for a simple reason: the habit of obedience is deeply ingrained, and, in many cases, is all that had allowed units to survive thus far. The main effect of the split is a definitive erosion of central authority but a return to a full scale civil war is avoided and, forced to choose between two rival governments (Civgov/Milgov), both with considerable flaws in their claims to legitimacy, many states or even localities simply choose to ignore both. Alaska declare independece turning on the soviet forces stuck on its soil to form the core of its army. Hawaii is de facto independent, Utah, Texas and other states declare independence while a Confederate Sovereign State (CSS) is formed by Alabama, Geogia, Mississippi and Tennessee. New America increases its actions nationwide and rules over Maine and Florida. FBI refusing to side with either governments attempt to organize as an extra-territorial organization operating nationwide but independently of the ruling bodies. Officially, forces of the two governments refrain from violent confrontation, but there are sporadic local clashes over key installations, occasional bloody coups within military units, and numerous assassinations and "dirty tricks" by rival intelligence agencies.

Further north, Quebec, backed by the FBU, declares independence and mobilize its forces against Canada. Skirmishes occur with units loyal to the legal government but true fighting doesnt take place. Both Canada and Quebec facing each other in what appears as a Phoney War.

The Carribeans are once more the theater of piracy and travelling the seas is dangerous at best. Cuba (Independent), Guadeloupe (France), Martinique (France) and Trinidad & Tobago (HMG allied) are the only territories retaining true governmental control and struggle to survive within the sea of chaos that has become the region. Among them, Cuba remains the only true independent country but, after the grounding of La Havana, the society has become increasingly rural. Moreover, the Cuban military which took upon itself to bring back troops from abroad, takes control of Grenada by accident in the process. All over Central America legal governments face revived insurgencies with the exception of Panama (held with support from Civgov). The entire region going from Colombia to Surinam is now dominated by competing drug cartels while Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are facing an active isurgency by the Shinning Path and other groups. MERCOSUR, however, has closed its borders, established military curfews nationwide imitated in that by Chile. Then, as both entities still conduct large COIN operations in the favelas of Brazil, in Amazonas and in the Andes, they exploiting their ressources and remain organized.

In the Middle East, fighting remain undecisive as both sides become increasingly isolated. As already last year, in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia despite local efforts nobody really attempted to intervene and it seems fires shouldnt continue for months but for years on an apocaliptic scale. The coalition has formed a government of its own and still fights the shia of Iran and Iraq backed by Soviets now independent from Moscow. Officially, the road through Central Asia remains open but the semi-independent governments of the region and a revival of the antique tribal system has made it dangerous. The Arabs have lost any kind of unity while the Jews appear to do better. Cities, including Jerusalem, are largely left to themselves but towns and Kibbutz provide much of the needed support and Israel retains an organized army, a few ships and a limited air force.

In Africa and Asia the situation remains unchanged but a major event takes place in Oceania. Australia, New Zealand and various countries of the Pacific attend a regional conference at Sidney on March 15 and, after two weeks of deliberation,declare neutrality in the ongoing conflicts while a treaty is ratified, creating the Oceanian Confederal Union (OCU). Trade barriers between members disappear while protectionist policies are enforced toward the rest of the world. Meanwhile, the new union gets almost immediately involved in a war with Indonesia. New policies have resulted in workers from that country to be expelled in mass and Jakarta declares war. Fighting is bitter especially at sea and around Darwin where the Indonesians have landed troops but the Oceanian forces achieve success, helped by a Malaysian offensive on Borneo and by the acquisition of Chakri Naruebet (renamed Vampire). Defeated, the government in Jakarta falls and, replaced by one favorable to Canberra, signs the peace as parts of the army revolt.

[Marc]

Mohoneder timeline in Catalan

I know, I know... I'ts in Catalan! But it's a little sample of the colaboration beetween two members of this forum, too. And you could find the photographs are interesting.

This is the Catalan translation of the last alternate timeline for Twilight:2000 by Mohoneder. Some time ago we asked Mohonder for his authorization to translate his timeline to our language to use it in our website. After his kind affirmative response we looked for suitable images, added the photograph descriptions and began to publish each year when ready, roughly one year every two weeks. This is the final result. Click in each year to access the info.

The main link:

https://sites.google.com/site/elrefugidelargonauta/twilight-2000/linia-de-temps-alternativa