The world of 2100

[Raellus]

AFAIK, canon largely ignores South America. I see Brazil becoming a global power. IRL, they're economy is going gangbusters (relative to most countries hit hard by the current is-it-or-isn't-it global recession). It's got all of the factors of production and has recently taken on a greater leadership role in the region. During the Twilight War/WWIII, it's possible that South American countries began fighting one another over regional hegemony, however, during the last 50-100 years, wars between South American countries have been few and not too deadly/destructive (internal conflicts are another issue). In the case of a regional war, Brazil's rise might be delayed by a decade or two. Argentina is their closest rival but I don't see them eclipsing Brazil. Whether peacefully or by force, I could see Brazil being at the head of a South American confederacy of some sort, along the lines of EU/NATO. It's a continent rich in resources (Venezuelan oil, Chilean minerals, Argentinian and Uruguayan meat and grain, Brazil has some of everything). If they can get their act together, I can see The Confederacion de Estados Sudamericanos (CES)* being the richest and strongest world power in 2100.

*I didn't go with Estados Unidos de [Sud]america because that's too close to what Latin American countries call the USA.

[schnickelfritz]

I have to say that it's been a while since I went through Red Star Lone Star, but I really feel most of the scattered Mexican units pack up and go home at one time or another. Hostile populace, few supplies other than locally sourced food/water, the Texian Legion, the US Government, a civil war at home, etc etc. If I was in some unit drawn from the Yucatan, the last thing I'd want to do is hang out in some nowheresville town in the US Southwest wating for the US Government to show and wipe my unit out. I can see many of the Mexican units withdrawing in late winter or early spring before it gets really hot.

-Dave

[Rainbow Six]

With regard to South America, I don't have any books immediately to hand at the moment, but going from memory I'm fairly sure that in the v2 BYB it refers to a war between Brazil and Argentina in 1998 or thereabouts that ends up going nuclear. I think Peru is also mentioned.

[TrailerParkJawa]

If I recall correctly the world of 2300 Ended up the way it did in part because GDW created a game to model the course of history and various players represented the countries of the world. So at least some of that vision pews the results of players choices and not 100 percent written by one person.

[Raellus]

With regard to South America, I don't have any books immediately to hand at the moment, but going from memory I'm fairly sure that in the v2 BYB it refers to a war between Brazil and Argentina in 1998 or thereabouts that ends up going nuclear. I think Peru is also mentioned.

That would be interesting considering that neither of them had/has nuclear weapons IRL. IIRC, Brazil was working on developing them in the late '80s but never quite got there and eventually quit trying altogether. Assuming that they tried much harder in the Twilight timeline (I'm not a fan of the v2.2 history), and the Argies did too, neither side would realistically have more than a half-dozen warheads max by 2000, and they most likely would have had to have been delivered by aircraft making interception a strong possibility. Yeah, I just don't buy a nuclear war between Argentina and Brazil.

[TrailerParkJawa]

If I recall correctly the world of 2300 Ended up the way it did in part because GDW created a game to model the course of history and various players represented the countries of the world. So at least some of that vision pews the results of players choices and not 100 percent written by one person.

[HorseSoldier]

That would be interesting considering that neither of them had/has nuclear weapons IRL. IIRC, Brazil was working on developing them in the late '80s but never quite got there and eventually quit trying altogether. Assuming that they tried much harder in the Twilight timeline (I'm not a fan of the v2.2 history), and the Argies did too, neither side would realistically have more than a half-dozen warheads max by 2000, and they most likely would have had to have been delivered by aircraft making interception a strong possibility. Yeah, I just don't buy a nuclear war between Argentina and Brazil.

There was speculation that both had nuclear programs in the 80s -- GDW apparently decided those programs made it to limited fruition in the T2K timeline. Argentina-Brazil was one of those late Twilight War side clashes (1998 don't have chronology handy) that seemed to fall into the "everyone else is doing it, why shouldn't we" (Pakistan-India being another, though that one seemed more probable to me.)

An exchange between Brazil and Argentina probably wouldn't amount to much more than maybe tactical use if one side was doing badly in their conventional war and/or hitting Buenos Aires on the one side and one of the southern most Brazilian cities (Rio and Sao Paulo are probably too far north to be hit, but there are lucrative targets closer to the border).

Both nations probably suffer more overall damage from the collapse of the global economy. I don't know the numbers for Argentina, but Brazil is a net importer of food because a big chunk of their agricultural sector is cash crops (citrus fruit, rope fiber, whatever) -- a country whose national dish is rice and beans imports both to meet its food needs. For Brazil to make it without massive unrest and chaos, there would have to be some well organized and orchestrated austerity and economic reconfiguring programs . . . which honestly probably were not favored by the initial outbreak of war, when demand would have gone up for Brazilian cash crops.

For Brazil, I see it fragmenting for a time along the longstanding north/south divide (opposite of the US -- industrialized south, agricultural north), with the Amazon basin just abandoned entirely. Eventually the south succeeds in reestablishing control over the rest of the nation, but settling the coastal north takes time and getting back into developing the Amazon is generations down the line from the Twilight War.

Argentina I think is better off in terms of cohesion and an easier territory to control, but a war and nuclear exchange with Brazil exposes a lot of high value areas to potential damage -- Buenos Aires and Rosario are both conceivably involved in fighting if it leads to Brazilian troops on Argentinean soil or nukes. I'd guess the capital has had to relocate from Buenos Aires and the war with Brazil has ground down to both sides trying to restore order and rebuild, with Argentina having a head start compared to Brazil owing to nothing as comparably complicating as the north breaking away.

[Chris]

I don't have a copy of 2300 in easy reach (buried in the shelves), but isn't Texas it's own nation with extra-solar colonies I vaguely remember a module, Ranger, dealing with Texans and the Ember

[HorseSoldier]

Yeah -- Texas is one of those 2300AD weird recursive history situations. Texas was formally annexed by Mexico in the 21st century but then it (and southern California) rebelled as a part of a renewed (the 3rd) Mexican-American War. The war ends in a murky sort of way -- Texas is independent, there is a US-Mexico settlement, and then Mexico crushes the southern California rebellion.

The end result is a map of the southwestern USA that looks a lot like it did after Texan independence and before the actual Mexican American War in the 19th century.