Ukraine Fun & Games

[schnickelfritz]

I've been thinking about the Ukraine-Russia situation, and while not wanting to start WW3...at least until I can take one last vacation to Orlando, LOL, I'm starting to tire of the bully routine I see from old "Pooty-Poot."

I'm wondering if we need to look seriously at a "Desert Shield" scenario with a line in the sand (mud, whatever), backed not necessarily with ground troops, but by aircraft with a known anti-tank mission.

What my thought was is that the Ukrainians would set up a AAA umbrella using the Tankguska and ZSU-23-4 and whatever SAM's they have operational.

With that up, we would base A-10's and AH-64's from Ukrainian bases, probably with some F-15/F-16 support. F-22's would be available should it really get bad out of Turkey.

Communication with the Russians would be important....basically..."you go no further." "Take your forces and go home and we do the same."

I would also encourage the Poles to base some assets there and provide more military assistance to them in the form of better fighters. I doubt they want to feel a neo-Soviet boot on their necks either.

Thoughts

Dave

[Targan]

Personally I'd love to see a scenario like that play out. Practically, not going to happen (sadly).

[pmulcahy11b]

I'm wondering if we need to
I would also encourage the Poles to base some assets there and provide more military assistance to them in the form of better fighters. I doubt they want to feel a neo-Soviet boot on their necks either.

Thoughts

Dave

The Polish and Romanians have shown some willingness to conduct a peacekeeping mission. Now, the source for that is Senator McCain, who is a big whooping warhawk, but what he said sounds plausible.

[stormlion1]

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

[mikeo80]

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

I agree with Stormlion. The Russians got what they wanted. No one is going to do much about it. Any one have a guess where the next "annexation" will occur

My $0.02

Mike

[kalos72]

If this does happen/stay, which we all know it will, it will begin the down ward spiral for us world-wide. NATO / EU / US power will be severely reduced...

But what real options do we have Send troops to the Baltic and try to force him out

WWIII with Russia isn't a great scenario...sanctions and political crap are all we have.

Maybe someone will start working on a small fusion reactor now to reduce the dependency on oil.

[Webstral]

The only military solution with any teeth that I can see is an offer of NATO membership to the Ukraine. The Ukraine would have to accept, and a minimum of 250,000 NATO troops would have to go in as soon as logistical realities would allow. The end game would look much like West Germany with contingents from all of the NATO partners based in the country, plus a new set of POMCUS sites established. If the Russians intervene after Ukrainian membership in NATO has been made official, then there is a long term option regardless of how things go in the short term. At the very least, we'd get to find out if the engineering decisions made regarding the M1 played out favorably under less optimal circumstances than during Operation Desert Storm. We'd also get to find out who made the best choices regarding aircraft design.

[schnickelfritz]

How do you see this playing out now given the seizures over the last week

It would seem the Ukrainians are doing everything they can...probably too much...to make sure they are not the aggressor here. Everyone knows who the aggressor is here...despite the old school Soviet PR campaign.

I am very much in favor of providing military assistance to the Ukrainians by way of something like getting more F-16's for Poland so they can then give their MiG-29's to the Ukrainian Air force, and providing parts and resources so they can get more of their on paper strength actually in the field.

I doubt Pooty wants to go into something and take appreciable losses in men, tanks, or aircraft. If the Ukraine can provide a credible threat to do that, I think he'll pull a Georgia and quietly back off.

The Crimea is gone, but I don't really want to see a good chunk of the rest of the country fly the hammer and sickle again...er...Russian colors.

Seeing the hammer and sickle waving at some of these protests is at best chilling.

I used to work with a proud Russian who was ironically born in Kiev (his Father was Russian in the Soviet Army) and he was proud to the point that it blinded him...wow. You'd think the Soviets beat Hitler with one hand tied to hear him tell it...repeatedly. It got to the point where I brought in figures of all the crap we gave them in WW2 and how many were lost getting it there. He thought it was all western propaganda...yeesh.

-Dave

[Webstral]

The Crimea is now Russian, for all intents and purposes. At this point, that situation can only be reversed by force of arms.

As for defending the rest of the Ukraine with NATO, it's really an effort for the logisticians. If the Ukraine were to accept NATO membership, and if NATO were to decide to commit fully to defending its new member from aggression, then the first bottleneck would be the rate at which troops could be deployed from NATO base areas to the Ukraine. Military aircraft could bring in the rapid deployment forces, but it would take heavy divisions to do the job properly. Air power alone won't cut it. It's either troops on the ground ready to fight or it's just another Western effort to substitute cash and technology for commitment.

I wonder who would be willing to provide ground forces for the Ukraine. Technically, every NATO member not on the front line ought to be sending forces forward. The Brits would pitch in, of course. The French probably would, too. Germany Canada Italy Spain Greece The former Soviet satellites probably would be the most receptive to a request for troops.

[Sanjuro]

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland"

[Panther Al]

Is anyone else thinking "Sudetenland"

Not the only one.

Now, you can take historical comparisons only so far, but this is what I thought once all this got kicked off.

A: Country Elects a Charismatic Leader, whose biggest point is a cult of personality that emphasises national pride and demonises anyone not one of them.

B: A economic recovery is started, based of either manufacturing or resources.

C: They back a section of another country that they claim, accurately or not, was part of them, and they move in on a pretext to secure that claim. The world does nothing.

D: In order to prove that they are the good guys, they host a really nice Olympics, putting on quite the show of openness and all that goes with the effort to sell themselves.

E: Meanwhile, in the Far East, a nation who believes they are being slighted and not given their just dues as a 'Great Power' props up a nasty neighbouring government, and needing a vast increase in natural resources, and knowing they can't take it from the north, starts looking south at various islands and nations as 'rightfully' theirs, regardless of what the locals say of the idea.

F: Once the Olympics are done, and reacting to the 'Locally Formed Uprising' and the 'Spontaneous Demands' of an ethnic minority in a neighbouring country, the stage a pretext to bite off a large chunk of it, all in the name of peace and fulfilling the wishes of the local oppressed majority of the region, and make it part of the greater nation.

G: World goes ape: they all demand that the country in question fly right, and get it together. They have a big meetings, and they all agree 'Something Should Be Done' if it happens again. Meanwhile, the county of evil-doers start making noises saying the rest of said country is being mean to a ethnic brothers and sisters, and we might have to do something about this, but don't worry, all those troops we have on the border, they are just there for some sunshine. Oh And Country C Don't get ideas about treating our co-ethnic people bad, I know you are allied with some pretty strong countries, but you know they don't really have your back, after all, what have they done for their other friends


Now again, can only comparisons so far, but as this one goes, pretty darn scary. For in this case, we have the following:

A: Germany elected everyones favourite Bavarian Corporal, and Russia Elected Putin.

B: German Manufacturing took off, and Russia started selling gas and oil hand over fist.

C: Ruhr/Rhine from France, and Georgia lost a few provinces. Granted, at least Germany was in the right here.

D: Berlin 36, Sochi 14

E: Japan/Manchuria late 30's, China/North Korea Now.

F: Sudetenland, and now the Crimea.

G: Right now he is making serious noise about the rest of the Ukraine, at least the eastern parts, and western leadership - with two loud exceptions - are looking for a piece of paper to wave. The two exceptions Poland and Germany: they both know how this movie worked out the last time, and don't care to watch the sequel. Also, Putin has been making noises about the Baltics, and here, they have allies: in fact, they are NATO members. So, to carry the comparison, they are taking the role of Poland in 39.

So yes, this is a bit of history we have seen before, clearer than most, that we need to pay attention too. Germany is: they have pretty much locked in the European Leadership by financing away the economic crisis and they see where this can lead all to easily. Poland as well is looking to the east with great alarm: They never was fond of either the Germans or the Russians, but right now they can trust the defanged German people, and are quietly looking at beefing up - significantly - their armed forces according to friends of mine that work in a odd shaped five sided building down the road.

But thats my two cents.

[Targan]

Germany's actions post-1933 have some very interesting parallels with Russia's actions in this new millenia. Check out this excellent article by the Australian Broadcasting Commission: Hillary Clinton's comparison of Vladimir Putin and Adolf Hitler checks out

[stormlion1]

The only real route to get equipment is through Poland and everything would have to be trucked in. I can see the Russians moving in to cut Poland and the Ukraine off from each other using almost the same scenario. "Ethnic Russians" and threats of force because in the end the Russians can lay claim to the Ukraine as full of "Ethnic Russians" because they were part of the USSR only a few decades back. Sanctions do work, but there a long term effect and will not do anything that the Russians won't be able to work around. I honestly expect the Ukraine to be forced to rejoin the Russians new Empire within the decade. Poland is going to have to start worrying as well as NATO is a paper tiger at this point. Which is why they want the US to send its Tanks back now, even though we withdrew them last year from Europe as a whole. Can the EU hold off the Russians without the US

[Webstral]

The West today is in a much better position than the Anglo-French were in 1938-9. Granted, the internal divisions and legislative paralysis being experienced by the US is uncomfortably similar to the French political situation during the run-up to the Battle of France. That much said, NATO is in a better position vis--vis Russia. I write this while trying to bear in mind that overconfidence kills.

Regardless of what happens in the Ukraine, NATO includes the Baltics, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Russian military action against any of these states mandates action by the rest of NATO. Regardless of what one thinks of a particular Western leader, NATO obligations provide a clear-cut cover for military action up to and including full scale mobilization and war"even nuclear war. While I dont have access to a psychological profile of Putin such that I could make a definitive statement about his willingness to test the commitment of the Western powers to NATO, Im reasonably confident of the long term outcome of any conventional confrontation between NATO and Russia. (NATO v Russia simultaneously with a US-led alliance against China is a different story, if such a story is relevant to tell.)

I do think the tanks have to go back in. I would go so far as to say that the tanks have to be pushed forward to Poland and Romania. In fact, the whole NATO posture needs to be pushed eastwards at this point"if only to demonstrate that NATO means business about defending all NATO members from extralegal action by outside agents. Im no more anxious for war than anyone else who has looked war in the eye as a rifleman. That much said, Im perfectly aware that actions speak louder than words; combat units show a far greater commitment to ones allies than economic sanctions. We want the Poles, the Balts, the Romanians, and the others to feel completely confident that we will go to the mat for them if thats the way Russia wants to play. Putin may or may not be moved by the loss of revenues from alienating his European clients. Hes far more likely to be moved by the permanent stationing of a half dozen heavy divisions in Poland and another 2-3 in Romania. This number would be too small to invade Russia, but it would be enough to prevent any sudden and rash acts by Russia. This number is not insuperable when spread amongst the NATO allies.

None of this will be helpful to the Ukraine in the immediate future. I suppose some value might be derived from keeping Putin guessing about what is intended by the push eastward, but the short term effect might actually be to raise the temperature and bolster Putins domestic support. So be it. Politicians and diplomats dream of solutions that give them the theoretical maximum reward. Soldiers must be more pragmatic. Putins support in Russia can go through roof for all I care, so long as every time he looks at our allies hes looking down a thicket of 120mm barrels.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Some things to keep in mind, the US does not do a lot of trade with Russia so it can't get a lot of leverage from that but... if the US does try to enforce sanctions against Russia, we all better get use to not having GPS, satellite comms, restricted weather forecasting and other things.

NASA is wholly reliant on Russia for the supply of engines for it's main launch vehicle, the Atlas V rocket. The RD-180 engine is considered by some to be the best of its type in the world due to a combination of low cost and good efficiency and it's supplied by NPO Energomash in Russia.
Kick Putin hard enough, he might just ban the sale of RD-180 engines.