Your thoughts on the (cannon) Presidential line of succession?

[comped]

Hey!

I'm wondering if you guys have a different timeline for presidential succession in your games, then that HW presented

As a refreshing:

1. President Tanner killed during takeoff accident on KNEECAP during TDM
2. VP Pembleton killed during direct hit missile strike on WH (also during TDM).
3. US without a president for 22 hours.
4. Speaker of the House Munson inaugurated after 22 hours (or so) of no president.
5. Munson suffers nervous breakdown, and is relieved.
6. Former Secretary of State (Munson's successor) suffers heart failure.
7. Former Secretary of Energy (Sec. of State's successor) commits suicide
8. No longer an operation CLS, no attempt was made to locate successor.
9. Rump Congress elects John Boward President.

Would this really have happened if such a event were to happen today Even after 9/11 and all the COOP that happened afterword Never mind, was this even remotely possible happenings in the 1980's Does it even make sense Not to get into the whole "rump congress" issue, but would they even have the legal authority to even conduct legislative activity (like appoint a new president) Why wouldn't they follow Munson's declaration of marshal law And wouldn't what's left of the line of succession continue (If we wanted to be actually factual to the IRL line, it'd be the President pro tempore of the Senate after Munson, Treasury Secretary after State, Defense after Treasury, and on down the line. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...#Current_order That link is to the actual line of succession) Did GDW simply not research such an important matter Or are we left to assume that numbers 3, 5-13, 15-17 are all dead/incapacitated And wouldn't there be a plan to find the SOH BEFORE 22 hours elapses

[mikeo80]

IIRC, the only example we have of 1980's Presidential replacement was when Ronald Reagan was shot. Legally, George HW Bush was next in line. Alexander Haig made an ASS of himself by declaring "He was in charge." Yes, he was in the "War Room" of the White House. But GHWB was easily available and connected within a few minutes.

My $0.02

Mike

[comped]

IIRC, the only example we have of 1980's Presidential replacement was when Ronald Reagan was shot. Legally, George HW Bush was next in line. Alexander Haig made an ASS of himself by declaring "He was in charge." Yes, he was in the "War Room" of the White House. But GHWB was easily available and connected within a few minutes.

My $0.02

Mike

Agreed. I should have said '90's (because that's when it happened, in timeline), but since it was written in the '80's, it still kinda fits. To be a little hard on GDW, there's a better line of succession for when the president goes in for surgery, then when T2K had a nuclear war. Wouldn't you think that, even without the internet, they could have looked that up

[kato13]

The way GDW wrote the loss of ALL viable candidates would not have happened in real life. Munsun would have promoted the 1st, 2nd or 3rd deputies for any dead cabinet members to secretary. As they have already been approved by the Senate they would now be in the line of succession.

This is not a new post 9/11 law, but the scenario was confirmed shortly after then during interviews with a 1st deputy who had not yet been promoted. They confirmed that they would be in the line of succession. Given they way it is structured something like 60 people would all have to die to have NO ONE to fill the role of president.

The biggest potential I see for a controversy is the promotion of a deputy when a secretary is not actually dead, but as Secretaries serve at the whim of the president, I see these claims dissolving quickly.

[comped]

That still leaves the question of why GDW skipped so many people in the line of succession. Was that due to lack of research Or was there something more to it that was left unpublished

[kato13]

That still leaves the question of why GDW skipped so many people in the line of succession. Was that due to lack of research Or was there something more to it that was left unpublished

My assumption was that the rest of the basic list was dead.

Edit.

But that is really hard to swallow. Cheney was in a bunker for weeks after 9/11. In the GDW world nukes had been flying for months. SLBMs had been used in Europe and the Far East (assumed). And in a US where 48% of pre war americans are alive in 2000 you have a 85% causality rate among the most protected people in the US

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Wait, 48% surviving I thought the population loss was like 90% by 2000...

[comped]

That figure seems to be from Howling Wilderness.

[Rainbow Six]

And wouldn't there be a plan to find the SOH BEFORE 22 hours elapses

Years since I've read Howling Wilderness so going from memory here but wasn't there a line somewhere about Munson being a stickler for his own privacy so no one knew where he was as an explanation for the delay IIRC wasn't he on a skiing holiday in California or something (That always struck me as odd...the World is going down the toilet and a senior American politician has the time to go on a skiing holiday...)

That still leaves the question of why GDW skipped so many people in the line of succession. Was that due to lack of research Or was there something more to it that was left unpublished

Personally, I don't think it was anything more or less than a plot device to justify the split between Milgov / Civgov. With a legitimate successor to the Presidency there is no justification for the schism between US Governments

Wait, 48% surviving I thought the population loss was like 90% by 2000...

Pg234 of the V2.2 BYB states that total casualties in the US was 52% of the population (which obviously leaves 48% alive) It is explicitly stated that that figure is as correct as of July 2000 so includes subsequent deaths, not just direct casualties of the nuclear exchange. I'm not certain but I think you may be confusing T2K with T2K13 - I'm not as familiar with T2K13 but a 90% casualty figure for that work rings a bell.

[kato13]

That figure seems to be from Howling Wilderness.

It is also in the 2.0 and 2.2 rule book

Total casualties in the nuclear attack were 135.2 million, or 52% of the population of the United States in 1997.

This includes initial fatalities and subsequent deaths from injuries, in addition to deaths from disease, starvation, and civil unrest up to July 2000.

[Tegyrius]

Pg234 of the V2.2 BYB states that total casualties in the US was 52% of the population (which obviously leaves 48% alive) It is explicitly stated that that figure is as correct as of July 2000 so includes subsequent deaths, not just direct casualties of the nuclear exchange. I'm not certain but I think you may be confusing T2K with T2K13 - I'm not as familiar with T2K13 but a 90% casualty figure for that work rings a bell.

T2013 assumed a 90% casualty rate. That came not from direct nuclear or kinetic effects of the war, but rather from the collapse of public health functions and the agricultural supply chain.

The presidential succession issue in the classic scenario always struck me as off, too. One thing I wanted to do with T2013 but never got around to was insert a couple of subtle hints that some of the key people in the process were targeted deliberately by parties unknown.

- C.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Hm, if on TDM there were enough agents sent over with Castro's kids working in collusion with the Soviets and they'd mapped out as many members of congress as possible they might have worked on a decapitation strike once the missiles were in the air.

Of course the sensibility of this is what I question; I think even SIOP took in to consideration the idea that if we kill their leadership and they ours there's nobody left to turn it off. The idea of "getting off easy" with a 20-30 missile "surgical" strike on either nation goes out the door and the subs are emptying their tubes and the silo doors are flying open the minute nobody can send a stand-down order.

[pmulcahy11b]

Maybe its just me (and I'll admit I don't have an anything better), but I just have never liked the canon story.

[Cdnwolf]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession

When in doubt...lol.

[kato13]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_..._of_succession

When in doubt...lol.

If you look at the list you can see that #15, Sloan Gibson, while an "Acting" secretary is still in the line of succession. This means that he was approved by the Senate to be first deputy secretary, but has not yet been approved by the Senate to be full secretary.

Every department's 1st deputy is approved by the Senate. I believe most if not all second and third deputies are also approved, and the department of Defense has at least 8 positions approved by the Senate (more if you count the regional commands).

So the canon story would not play out the way it does. You easily could have a president no one heard of. Quick name the undersecretary of the interior. But there would not be a total lack of candidates.

Edit.

The most likely possibility for a schism would come from confusion over does 2nd deputy sec of state trump 1st deputy sec of def. However as long as someone in the first 18 survives, the next line of succession (assuming you follow the GDW story they went crazy) would depend on who they made "acting" secretary from the pool of approved candidates. (Which I expect would be one of the first 10 things they do)