California Nuke Target List.

[kato13]

Just a note the "Y" in the second to last column denoted a ground burst according to canon.

34.70376968 -120.5610809 Vandenberg AFB CA United States Recon satellite launch facilities 1000 Y T2k

[Webstral]

I appreciate the solid reference to published materials, Kato. Well done. I changed it in my interpretation because I felt this one was one of those things the authors didn't think through to its conclusion. I would say the same for every other airburst over .5Mt against specific soft targets. I believe it is bad politics for either side to be using city-busting nukes against specific economic targets if they want to avoid prompt escalation to a general strategic exchange. The Wilmington strike is of the same character. It's overkill in a manner that suggests the Soviets are playing games and trying to find excuses to kill cities under whatever transparent pretext will serve. It begs retaliation of exactly the same character. One strike like this can be an accident. Multiple strikes like this indicate a pattern and, again, beg retaliation--possibly with interest. If the target genuinely is the petroleum infrastructure, then a 1.5Mt airburst is a highly suspect way to tell the target nation "We're after your petroleum but don't want a city-busting exchange." Again, one can be an accident. Two or more is a pattern.

[Matt Wiser]

Anyone notice that two SAC bomber bases (Castle and Mather) and a third SAC base (Beale, with the U-2 and SR-71) are off the canon target list Along with Travis (former bomber base, but MAC in the 1970s onward).

[Targan]

Important targets not on the canon target list weren't necessarily overlooked for nuking... they may have been hit with warheads smaller than the target list's threshold. It leaves lots of leeway for GMs without necessarily being in conflict with canon.

[kato13]

Important targets not on the canon target list weren't necessarily overlooked for nuking... they may have been hit with warheads smaller than the target list's threshold. It leaves lots of leeway for GMs without necessarily being in conflict with canon.

One note, the USSR as of 1989 had very few (relatively) ICBMs or SLBMs either deployed or in the planning stages that were armed with warheads under 500kt. IIRC only one version of one type of missile capable of hitting the US carried 350kt warheads (3XMIRV). Say one thing about them the USSR was not about being subtle.

You still do have leeway as there were hundreds of these 350kt warheads but as a percent of the total of Soviet forces they represented a small fraction of available warheads. If you say 3% of their total missiles had them and maybe 6% max of the missiles targeting the US were them you get on the highest end somewhere between 18 and 27 additional hits. Of course there could be none and that would also fit history and canon.

Maybe someday I will look for some nice 3 target clusters (within 300 miles) which were missed. (Pulling form the massive number of Morrow project targets I already have data-based).

Cruise missiles are another option, but that IMO would have been more likely to have triggered MAD (as detection is harder)

[Webstral]

If the authors' thought process is to be taken into account, the Soviets had good reason to be circumspect. They were trying very hard to avoid a general exchange. I think it's possible that they used lower-yield warheads on every occasion they could.

This idea dovetails with my thinking on Richmond. After BDA, someone realized they were going to have to conduct a follow-up. They ordered the strike. No low-yield nukes were available at the time. Someone at the top said "Now, now, now!" Someone in the middle said, "We can't not hit the target, but we have orders not to engage in a city-busting profile. We only have warheads greater than 1Mt available right now. Make it a ground burst. Maybe we won't get shot in the backs of our heads."

[kato13]

This chart really shows how few low yield devices they have (again comparably).

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/wrjp159r.html

Only the SS-11 Mod 3 Sego with a max number being 630 (a more common estimate is 250). This is out of a number approaching 10000 ICBM/SLBMs.

My guess is that they did not have the Dial a yield concept we used in our Cruise missiles nor that their infrastructure was optimized for smaller missile warheads. From the chart they seem to like the big boys.

edit

I just noticed the SS-N-20 Mod 1 Sturgeon SLBM does give some 200kt options. I don't think this option was on a prior chart I looked at.

SLBM are harder to target accurately so are usually reserved for city busting, but it is another option.

[kato13]

For what it is worth here are the canon ground strikes

49.16437912 -123.9366608 Nanaimo Canada Canada Parliamentary Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
34.70376968 -120.5610809 Vandenberg AFB CA United States Recon satellite launch facilities 1000 Y T2k
38.74499893 -104.8470001 Cheyenne Mountain CO United States North American Air Defense Command NORAD Headquarters 3000 Y T2k
28.40500069 -80.6043396 Kennedy Space Fight Center Cape Can FL United States Recon satellite launch facilities 1000 Y T2k
38.89522171 -77.03675842 Washington DC United States Presidential shelter at the White House 250 Y T2k
38.81090164 -76.86689758 Andrews AFB MD United States Presidential Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
39.10498047 -76.74417114 Fort Meade MD United States Presidential Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
38.99229813 -76.56939697 Camp David MD United States Presidential Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
38.88953781 -77.08460999 Arlington VA United States The Pentagon 500 Y T2k
38.52209091 -77.29457092 Quantico VA United States Presidential Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
37.30580139 -80.04405975 Fort A. P. Hill VA United States Presidential Emergency Facility 500 Y T2k
48.04459 30.84987831 Pervomaysk USSR USSR SS-19 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
50.7539711 59.53485107 Dombarovskiy USSR USSR SS-18 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
50.93598938 115.5616608 Olovyanneya USSR USSR SS-26 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
51.39363098 128.1232452 Svobodnyy USSR USSR SS-26 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
52.47362137 82.75791931 Aleysk USSR USSR SS-18 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
53.06156158 158.6224823 Petropavlovsk USSR USSR Submarine base SLBM storage center 2000 Y T2k
53.06576157 60.65378952 Kartaly USSR USSR SS-18 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
55.32117081 89.86235809 Uzhur USSR USSR SS-18 iCBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
56.85504913 40.53266907 Teykovo USSR USSR SS-27 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
57.78073883 40.93669128 Kostroma USSR USSR SS-17 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k
57.99000168 55.93000031 Perm USSR USSR helicopter, MiG-31, Il-76 engine plant 2000 Y T2k
56.63750076 47.89149857 Yoshskar-Ola USSR USSR SS-25 ICBM Complex HQ 2000 Y T2k

[Targan]

Fair enough. I guess if they didn't ramp up production of low-yield warheads and appropriate delivery systems in the T2K timeline, there's not much leeway for GMs after all.

[kato13]

Or course they could have changed anything. I change my timeline going back 1976 to allow the USSR to survive, any number of thing could have changed internally.

I just remembered a ton of research I did on this a few years back when I was trying to map out what strikes hit where and when globally.

[LT. Ox]

new and catching up

The north East Bay was at one time the largest oil refinery and storage complex in the world. Starting north of the old WWII LIBERTY ship building yards with Standard oil and continuing all the way to the Carquinez Strait Bridge several major oil companies abutted each other much like the cities with limit signs sharing the same sign post.
I lived at a location named TANK FARM HILL until 1966 and the Army. The storage tanks went from the Bay to interstate 80 and beyond. At least two of the petro chemical plants, Standard and Shell, had developing and manufacturing plants for chemical products such as weed and pest killers this was the early seventies and I worked as a security guard for standard while I went to School.
The Bridge from Richmond to San Rafael would almost certainly fall. This would present a navigation hazard. The Bridge at the straits would in all likelihood fall as well and would constitute a plug until cleared. The Moth ball fleet as it existed at the time was not nearly as large as it had been but a number of transport vessels were still floating. Mare Island was still in use and would be unlikely to survive as a functioning facility (perhaps a good source for scrounged material)
As far as rail service goes the yards at Richmond were Santa Fe. Oakland and Berkley, Southern Pacific and Western Pacific. Passenger traffic is an interesting topic. My wife and I have used the Amtrak service from Grand Junction Co to Oakland on a number of occasions prior to 2000 and since. No direct rail service to San Francisco from the west, one detrained in Oakland and used the BART system to SF. Rail service form San Francisco to LA and San Diego does or did go on a daily schedule. I suppose you could have used Santa Fe across the southwest into LA and then north to SF. Since the mid to late sixtys Freight service has had the right of way over passenger service. In situation presented in the game it is debatable if passenger service would be restored to WWII levels or not. Priorities and boarder problems considered my vote is for resumption as troops would not be using the lines all the time.
Well enough of an old Irish Football players rambling

[unkated]

For what it is worth here are the canon ground strikes

When you say 'Canon' nuclear strikes, is there a difference (in nuclear strike targets) between T2K versions I don't know if it makes a difference...

Again, just in canon targets; we can save a discussion about different target selection thought processes by version and what that mean for another topic.

Uncle Ted

[kato13]

The US strikes come from Howling Wilderness which is V1 and The Big Yellow Book which is version 2/2.2. IIRC there is no difference in yield or location between the two. The BYB may have added one sub 500kt strike for a presidential shelter in DC.

The remainder of my strikes come from the BYB (USSR) and a review of every module and challenge article.

Some European strikes are conjecture due to vague references, the Finnish source-books and the cities listed as rubble in the V1 maps.

[unkated]

As far as rail service goes the yards at Richmond were Santa Fe. Oakland and Berkley, Southern Pacific and Western Pacific. Passenger traffic is an interesting topic. My wife and I have used the Amtrak service from Grand Junction Co to Oakland on a number of occasions prior to 2000 and since. No direct rail service to San Francisco from the west, one detrained in Oakland and used the BART system to SF. Rail service form San Francisco to LA and San Diego does or did go on a daily schedule. I suppose you could have used Santa Fe across the southwest into LA and then north to SF. Since the mid to late sixtys Freight service has had the right of way over passenger service.

Interesting. When the Mexicans invade - and LA is unusable as a transportation hub (oh, by the way, losing the West Coast it's largest port facility), train traffic loses its link across the SW up to San Francisco.

San Francisco becomes increasingly dependent on barge traffic across from Oakland for bulk supply delivery.

In situation presented in the game it is debatable if passenger service would be restored to WWII levels or not. Priorities and boarder problems considered my vote is for resumption as troops would not be using the lines all the time.

I know that military travel during WW2 (and after) was based on a priority system; depending on your mission or need, you were granted a priority level, and you could bump someone off a plane or train if you had a higher priority rating. I could see civilian passengers being granted a priority level for train (or bus) lower than military, meaning you can go if there is space. Also meaning that you could be detrained in the middle of nowhere if someone needed your seat in the middle of a trip from say Taos, NM to Chicago...

Now, wouldn't that be a different way to start a campaign

You were selected from among low priority passengers on a military train, and dropped off in some platform in Arizona. your seats were needed by some intelligence types with hot information about the Mexican invasion. You are literally left on the platform with your loaded pack and rifle, with half a dozen equally annoyed-looking, inconvenienced soldiers. And their is some mortar fire in the distance....

There are some pickups in the dusty parking lot. Anyone have Hotwire skill :-)

Yes, yes, Mechanic will work just fine for that purpose...

Uncle Ted

[Webstral]

The fate of the bridges is a valid concern. The first issue is whether a given bridge will be left standing after a specific nuclear attack. The second is the degree of impact the bridge will have on navigation.

The Benicia-Martinez Bridge will be affected by 500kt airbursts directed against targets in Benicia, Martinez, and Avon. Unless I have put the Martinez epicenter too far south, none of the 20psi rings from the Benicia, Martinez, and Avon blasts overlap the bridge. All of the 5psi rings overlap at least part of the bridge. Assuming for the moment that the Soviet strikes were very accurate (not a reliable assumption, but well deal with one variable at a time), then the bridge is subjected to 3 separate overpressure waves sufficient to cause most residential buildings to collapse. We should bear in mind that residential buildings are very different structures from large bridges. Wood and even brick houses are flimsy compared to steel bridges meant to carry bumper-to-bumper 40-ton tractor trailers, if need be. Bridges are designed to withstand vertical compression, which is what an overpressure wave from an airburst at 2.5km will generate against this target, albeit at roughly a 30 degree angle. The Avon strike places the most horizontal stress on the bridge. However, this strike is the furthest from the bridge. The 5psi ring only covers the southern half of the bridge. Bay Area bridges are designed to withstand earthquakes: i.e., very significant vertical and horizontal stress. So while the cities nearby and the toll plazas might be knocked down, the Benicia-Martinez Bridge probably wont be destroyed by the canon strikes nearby.

The Richmond Bridge is a different issue. The 20psi ring overlaps the 2km length nearest the Richmond end of the bridge. If the detonation is an airburst roughly over the center of the refinery complex at 2km, the easternmost section of the bridge probably is going into the water. How far west the collapse extends is unknown. If a span of the bridge falls into the middle of the shipping channel while attached on the western side, theres definitely going to be a navigational hazard. If the bridge stays up over the shipping channel, there shouldnt be a problem. If the bridge drops a span completely into the shipping channel, the extent of the navigational hazard is hard to forecast. Ocean-going (deep draft) vessels might not be able to get through, but shallow draft barges and smaller craft might be unaffected. Its hard to say.

While I cannot fault anyone for sticking to the published materials, which state that Richmond is subjected to a 1.5Mt airburst, I remain committed to the idea that an alternative explanation ought to be explored. A 1.5Mt airburst against Richmond is virtually the equivalent of a nuclear attack on Oakland and San Francisco. If the target really is the refinery, then an airburst of this magnitude in this location runs the risk of having the Americans conclude that the exchange has moved into the city-busting phase. There is great room for latitude here, since the Richmond strike clearly is out of step with the other three strikes against Bay Area refineries. Something unusual is happening here, since logically all four targets should be hit at once with warheads of similar yield. A great many explanations may be offered for the distinctiveness of the Richmond attack. I offer the ground burst model mentioned in a previous post as one means of sticking to the idea of a limited exchange focused on important economic and industrial targets but not on flat-out city-busting.

Another possible explanation for the 1.5Mt strike that also gets around the city-busting challenge is an attack that is deliberately off-target. For instance, an airburst centered 7km north-northwest of the center of the refinery complex includes the complex in the 5psi ring as well as the thermal radiation ring. Its not hard to imagine fires destroying the complex. Richmond and San Pablo are doomed, but Oakland and San Francisco are far enough away that they are not obviously targets of the attack.

Now that I am looking at this model, I like it better than the ground burst. Fallout got mentioned above. I looked at the fallout model again, and it really does look like Fairfield and Sacramento get destroyed by fallout. Since Sixth US Army is listed as controlling an area anchored on Sacramento-Oakland, and since that very area gets hammered really hard in a 1.5Mt ground burst model, I think Im going to have to abandon the ground burst model. Too bad. I worked hard on that.