OT (?): Climate change

[Targan]

In any case, the Chinese have been buying up agricultural land, often in 3rd world s**tholes (ISTR that they bought up all of the surplus production of Madagascar recently, for example) where they could probably move in enough 'peacekeepers' to 'assist the [Chinese Puppet] Government to maintain order' ... feeding them and their cronies and letting the rest starve while shipping food back home.

China has been buying a LOT of land in Australia. Not quite a third world s**thole LOL! Personally I'm a bit uncomfortable with it, but hey, the government here hasn't quite got to the point where they consider pastoral/agricultural land to be a strategic asset worth holding onto.

[aspqrz]

The fault system in California won't cause the State to tumble into the ocean. One part of CA is moving south; the other part north.

Otherwise climate change added in with the end of the oil age could most certainly create a T2K scenario.

Social complexity requires excess calories. Excess calories are provided by oil. But imagine if we had another Little Ice Age and there was widespread crop failures. Lots of hungry people start moving!

As I noted, the Little Ice age didn't cause worldwide famines, it caused (possibly increased, possibly not) localised famines, And they were only famines because the transport technology of the period wasn't able to move actual surpluses from areas that had actual surpluses to the areas with the deficits.

As for the end of the oil age, doom and gloom by the same people that brought you the ridiculous 'The Limits of Growth' (Club of Rome, IIRC) which could only come to pass if they assumed that there would be absolutely no advances in technology of any sort. Which, even in the 60's, was ludicrous.

There are technological alternatives to oil, even now. Sure, they currently cost more, but, historically speaking, even looking at just the period since WW2, food prices as a percentage of average income has come down dramatically.

So, what will happen is that the price of food will go up, and the percentage of income spent on food will, too ... which we managed to cope with prior to the last 60 years or so without it causing world wars (no, food shortages did not cause WW2).

And, of course, it is not possible to even state definitively that food costs will go up due to rising transport costs - because it is always possible that alternative technologies (electric, hydrogen cycle ... ghu knows what) will actually minimise the actual increase in transport costs.

Again, the areas that have corrupt, inefficient governments which largely perpetuate their inadequate and low tech transport infrastructure are the areas that are going to be hit by medieval famines, and for the same reasons.

Phil

[aspqrz]

China has been buying a LOT of land in Australia. Not quite a third world s**thole LOL! Personally I'm a bit uncomfortable with it, but hey, the government here hasn't quite got to the point where they consider pastoral/agricultural land to be a strategic asset worth holding onto.

Indeed. And even with increased droughts we will probably be fine - and able to support our own population, and the farmland that the Chinese are buying (or the bits I've seen reported) are in areas that are likely to be worst hit by climate change ... I really cannot see why they are doing it if they are making long range plans.

AIUI Australia is 4th top (discounting 'EU' as a 'country') major exporters of cereal grains in the entire world, and guess who gets shorted if there are shortages here ... the places we export to (sans China, perhaps) ... and there are lots of them that are, yes, third world s**tholes that will probably starve if we do, but who will be able to do damn all about it.

In fact, look at the top 5 real countries - US, Canada, Russian Federation, Australia, Ukraine ... and of 128 countries listed by the USDA only 60 export any quantity of cereal grain, and of those the top 15 export more than 95%.

If climate change hits, it won't cause famines in the top 5, and probably not in the top 8-10 ... the further down the list you go the more they are going to suffer and the less we will be able (or wish) to do anything about it.

Phil