Norfolk Status: Going Home Time Frame

[Legbreaker]

It clearly states a 1 Mt warhead was used on Norfolk/Portsmouth.

No. It doesn't. As indicated by the quotes I made from the books in my earlier posts.
It only says a total of 1MT which it specifically states in the notes "not necessarily as a single weapon". Notice I've once again quoted the books here.

The individual yield of Soviet nuclear warheads deployed on their missiles during the Cold War is even today a matter of contention. Many Soviet missiles were MIRV capable, but I only know of one missile which specifically carried a 1.0 Mt warhead, and that was the SS-N-6 with a single warhead.

The R-36 is capable of carrying up to 10 warheads with 40 penetration aids (aka decoys). The warheads could be anywhere between 0.5MT and 25MT.
Note that two 0.5MT warheads adds up to the total 1MT dropped on Norfolk.
Also note that all other targets within the likely area of one of these missiles also received 0.5MT or a multiple of it. This fact reinforces the possibility of several warheads being dropped on Norfolk.
This is just one of several possible missiles which could have been used. There is nothing to say a ground based ICBM was in fact targeted to this area - could have been a boomer with a different set of warheads and payloads.

They do but submarines, ships and aircraft...

As for an air attack...

I only mentioned them as possibilities.

The whole point of my last few posts is that it's possible within a strict interpretation of the information we have that more than one warhead was used to attack Norfolk. Given a little research I believe that it is likely the missile used was probably an R-36M carrying eight (8) 0.5MT warheads. This missile also delivered warheads as far north as Washington DC. Likely targets in this particular scenario included:
Andrews AFB, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Fort Meade, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Camp David, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Arlington, VA: The Pentagon (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Quantico, VA: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Fort A.P. Hill, VA: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Norfolk/Portsmouth, VA: Atlantic Command Headquarters, port and facilities (1 Mt).

You'll note this adds up to exactly 8 of those 0.5MT warheads the R-36M carries and all those targets are within the likely throw range for the warheads from one missile.

Is this exactly how it happened Who knows, but it's certainly plausible, and that is the entire point.

[RN7]

No. It doesn't. As indicated by the quotes I made from the books in my earlier posts.
It only says a total of 1MT which it specifically states in the notes "not necessarily as a single weapon". Notice I've once again quoted the books here.

Howling Wilderness states ' The severity of the attack on each target point is represented by the megaton (Mt) rating of the weapons exploded there (not necessarily as a single weapon).'

So yes it may not have been a single weapon, but then again it may also have been one as the statement is ambiguous. However Howling Wilderness does not state what Soviet missile was launched at Norfolk/Portsmouth, nor does it tell us that it was a MIRV. There is only one Soviet warhead with a yield of 1 Mt and it was deployed on the SS-N-6 SLBM.

The R-36 is capable of carrying up to 10 warheads with 40 penetration aids (aka decoys).

Only the R-36UTTkh carried ten warheads and the yield of the warheads were 0.55 Mt. It was specifically designed and deployed to attack American ICBM silos and hardened targets. From 1988 it began to be replaced by the more accurate R-36M2 which also had ten warheads with yields of 0.55 or 0.75 Mt or higher according to Western estimates. The R-36M2 like the R-36UTTkh was designed and deployed specifically to attack American ICBM silos and hardened targets.

The warheads could be anywhere between 0.5MT and 25MT.

No they weren't. There was ten different models of the R-36 (SS-9 and SS-18) and they were specifically designed with either single warheads of high mega tonnage, or were designed as MIRV's with smaller warhead yields. The Soviets like everyone else did not mix and match the yields of the warheads on their MIRV's, all the warheads were of the same yield.

The whole point of my last few posts is that it's possible within a strict interpretation of the information we have that more than one warhead was used to attack Norfolk. Given a little research I believe that it is likely the missile used was probably an R-36M carrying eight (8) 0.5MT warheads.

Western sources estimated the yield of the R-36M's warheads at 0.6 Mt or 1.5 Mt. Also the R-36M had serious flaws in its post-boost vehicle design and was entirely replaced by the R-36UTTh from 1983.

This missile also delivered warheads as far north as Washington DC. Likely targets in this particular scenario included:
Andrews AFB, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Fort Meade, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Camp David, MD: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Arlington, VA: The Pentagon (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Quantico, VA: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Fort A.P. Hill, VA: Presidential Emergency Facility (.5 Mt, ground burst).
Norfolk/Portsmouth, VA: Atlantic Command Headquarters, port and facilities (1 Mt).

You'll note this adds up to exactly 8 of those 0.5MT warheads the R-36M carries and all those targets are within the likely throw range for the warheads from one missile.

Not with an R-36M

[pmulcahy11b]

Just to throw a wrench in, the Russians were believed to have armed some of their ICBM warheads with biological warfare warheads.

[RN7]

Just to throw a wrench in, the Russians were believed to have armed some of their ICBM warheads with biological warfare warheads.

The Soviets had a very active and extensive biological warfare programme.

According to Jonathan Tucker of the Monterey Institute of International Studies the Soviets developed smallpox biological weapons that were intended for use against American cities, with the aim of killing the survivors in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange. U.S. intelligence officials said they were unaware of the plan until Soviet scientist Kanatjan Alibek defected in 1992, and is now the executive director of George Mason University's Center for Biodefense in Virginia. But the U.S. had suspicions that one Soviet missile system had been modified to carry biological weapons; The SS-11 missiles had an oddly shaped warhead, and it was suspected it might be for biological weapons;

Tucker states that the SS-11, SS-13, SS-17 and SS-18 ICBM's were equipped with special biological weapon warheads over a 20-year-period. He also states that many of the missiles were based in silos near the Arctic Circle on a launch-ready status. The cold temperatures in the far north kept the smallpox agent viable for long periods. Tom Cochran of the Natural Resources Defense Council, which maintains a historical database of Soviet missile deployments, said that while there were no Soviet missile fields within 500 miles of the Arctic Circle. Four fields of SS-11, SS-13 and SS-17 missiles were located at northern latitudes of the Soviet Union during the period Alibek says the smallpox warheads were deployed. Those fields no longer exist as of 2001.

Tucker also states that Soviet engineers later developed special refrigerated warheads for the more modern SS-18, to enable the biological payload to survive the intense heat of re-entry through the atmosphere. A senior U.S. intelligence official at the time confirmed that U.S. spy satellites had detected a variant of the SS-11 missile warhead that had raised suspicions about biological weapons.

Alibek said the initial targets were New York, Seattle and Chicago, and that Boston was added to the list later. And American cities were not the only target. After 1968 Chinese cities also were placed on the target list. Alibek said he saw Gorbachev's signature on a Soviet Politburo document authorizing the production of smallpox for use in a war against the United States.

Tucker also states that the Soviet Union may have been responsible for distributing samples of the smallpox virus to other countries, including Iraq and North Korea, following the World Health Organization's eradication of the disease in the late 1970's. Tucker cites a U.S. National Security Council document as listing other possible recipients as China, Cuba, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan and Yugoslavia.

However a lot of this is speculation. I would be certain that the Soviets did think about developing biological warheads for missiles and maybe even tinkered with a prototype or two. But I don't think there is any real evidence that the Soviet ever really deployed biological warheads on ICBM's.

[Targan]

Yes indeed, and the Soviets' weaponised anthrax production is now widely known of too. Literally dozens of TONS of it right up to the end of the Soviet Union. I'd like to point the finger and say 'evil, evil bastards' but I suspect all of the major powers during the Cold War had active biological weapons programs, and may well still have.

[RN7]

Yes indeed, and the Soviets' weaponised anthrax production is now widely known of too. Literally dozens of TONS of it right up to the end of the Soviet Union. I'd like to point the finger and say 'evil, evil bastards' but I suspect all of the major powers during the Cold War had active biological weapons programs, and may well still have.

America also had a very active biological warfare programme including anthrax among many other diseases, and there are allegations that the U.S used them during the Korean War and against Cuba in 1962, and maybe also in Vietnam. President Nixon ended all offensive aspects of the U.S. bio-weapons program in 1969. In 1975 the U.S. ratified both the 1925 Geneva Protocol and the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). However there are allegations that the US Army is evading the BWC by conduction research into non-lethal biological weapons, and has researched the potential of entomological warfare ie. using insects as a weapon.

[RN7]

Yes indeed, and the Soviets' weaponised anthrax production is now widely known of too. Literally dozens of TONS of it right up to the end of the Soviet Union. I'd like to point the finger and say 'evil, evil bastards' but I suspect all of the major powers during the Cold War had active biological weapons programs, and may well still have.

Also of note to Targan and our Australian friends is that fact that Australia had a biological weapons programme and intended to use it.

Sir Frank Macfarlane Burnet who was the Director of the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute for Medical Research, and won the Nobel Prize for medicine in 1960 stated that...

"Specifically to the Australian situation, the most effective counter-offensive to threatened invasion by overpopulated Asiatic countries would be directed towards the destruction by biological or chemical means of tropical food crops and the dissemination of infectious disease capable of spreading in tropical but not under Australian conditions."

In 1951 it recommended that chemical and biological warfare research should be authorised to report on the offensive potentiality of biological agents likely to be effective against the local food supplies of South-East Asia and Indonesia.

Australia signed the BWC in 1972 and ended all Australian research into offensive biological weapons. However it should be noted that Australia has advanced research programs in immunology, microbiology and genetic engineering that support an industry providing world class vaccines for domestic use and export. It produces microorganisms on an industrial scale to support industries including agriculture, food technology and brewing. The dual-use nature of these facilities mean that Australia could easily produce biological warfare agents. Some disease research laboratories in Australia own strains of the Ebola virus. The Australian Microbial Resources Research Network lists 37 culture collections, many of which hold samples of pathogenic organisms for legitimate research purposes.

[Targan]

Well the CSIRO and associated government-funded bodies are right up there with the world's best scientists so they'd certainly have the capability. Heck, Australia joined the Blue Streak program with the understanding that we'd get our own nukes at the end, but the US thought Australia was a security risk and that we'd hand all the tech specs to the commies so they blocked it.

We've just commenced hostilities on the European carp and we're about to engage in some pretty nasty biological warfare against those scaly, gill-breathing bastards. Prepare for herpes carp-agedon, fishies!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I find a lot of this info quite interesting but ultimately, how does it gibe with the canon information I haven't read the books for some time but knowing full well that when they were written there wasn't as much information available, I feel that any correct info we have found after the fact still needs to be tailored to suit the gameworld - otherwise we start to lose the flavour of the game that attracted us to it in the first place.

[JHart]

Seeing as I've lived in the Hampton Roads area for 30 odd years I thought I'd add my 2 cents.
In reading previous discussions on the board, my assumption follows.
If it is stated in canon that the fleet returning from "Going Home" makes port in Norfolk, it would seem to me that there is something to return to. It is canon that a nuke was dropped with the intent to hit the Atlantic Command HQ located at the Norfolk Naval base. If it was a direct hit, it certainly wouldn't do the base any good, but there are other port facilities, both military and commercial in the Hampton Roads area. Assuming no other nukes are dropped on military or civilian targets in the area, then it is conceivable the fleet would return to Norfolk rather than another port on the Eastern Seaboard.
If it is more than one weapon, the Soviets could sling nukes at some of the following targets:
Major: Newport News Shipbuilding and Norfolk Naval Shipyard (located across the river from Norfolk in Portsmouth) which are still worth hitting in the non all out nuclear exchange presented in the game. Hitting these two targets and hitting Bremerton effectively ends carrier building and major carrier repair for the foreseeable future.
Minor: Southside - Little Creek NAB, Oceana NAS, Chambers Field (part of Norfolk naval station), Ft Story various civilian shipyards. Peninsula - Langley AFB, Ft Eustis, Yorktown NWS, Camp Perry, various civilian shipyards.

Most of the minor targets, with perhaps the exception of the shipyards, wouldn't really be worth hitting in a non all out attack. Most personal, equipment and planes would presumably already be deployed. Whether the Soviets care or not is another story, but in might make a difference in tit for tat exchanges.

In an all out bolt from the blue attack, most of southeast Virginia would be glass. In a tit for tat nuke exchange their is some chance of survival.

[WallShadow]

We've just commenced hostilities on the European carp and we're about to engage in some pretty nasty biological warfare against those scaly, gill-breathing bastards. Prepare for herpes carp-agedon, fishies!

But think of all the potential gefilte fish you'll be wasting!!!
On second thought, having tried gefilte fish several times with unfortunate reviews each time, go ahead and massacre 'em!

[Legbreaker]

If it is stated in canon that the fleet returning from "Going Home" makes port in Norfolk, it would seem to me that there is something to return to. It is canon that a nuke was dropped with the intent to hit the Atlantic Command HQ located at the Norfolk Naval base. If it was a direct hit, it certainly wouldn't do the base any good, but there are other port facilities, both military and commercial in the Hampton Roads area.

This is all true. The attack was an airburst (canon) so there's a chance some of the facilities not too close to ground zero would be still at least slightly usable (though the radiation might well put paid to that idea).

If it is more than one weapon, the Soviets could sling nukes at some of the following targets:
Major: Newport News Shipbuilding and Norfolk Naval Shipyard (located across the river from Norfolk in Portsmouth) which are still worth hitting in the non all out nuclear exchange presented in the game. Hitting these two targets and hitting Bremerton effectively ends carrier building and major carrier repair for the foreseeable future.

Given the information available to the writers at the time (as SSC has pointed out), it would seem very likely two 500kt warheads were used, although it's possible they believed 250kt warheads were a possibility. The two locations you've identified look like prime targets for one of those warheads, and are certainly close enough to be considered part of the one single strike.

T2K was written in the 1980's while the cold war still "raged" and details were hard to come by. We should not be using information gathered since then to try and explain why the books are written the way they are, but as SSC mentioned, alter what we now know to fit the books.

[Rainbow Six]

T2K was written in the 1980's while the cold war still "raged" and details were hard to come by. We should not be using information gathered since then to try and explain why the books are written the way they are, but as SSC mentioned, alter what we now know to fit the books.

Thanks for telling me what I should and should not be doing when it comes to how I play T2K Legbreaker, but I think I'll ignore your instructions and continue to interpret information as I wish.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Thanks for telling me what I should and should not be doing when it comes to how I play T2K Legbreaker, but I think I'll ignore your instructions and continue to interpret information as I wish.

Ah, well... perhaps we should all take a step back here and remember that everything posted here is based on personal preferences/beliefs/experience etc. etc. What's good for one may not be so good for another.
I tend to agree with Leg but I also have the opinion that he is not saying "You must all do it my way!" It seems that Western society has manufactured a culture of offence and people feel a need to take offence at the drop of a hat when none was ever intended.

[Legbreaker]

...he is not saying "You must all do it my way!"

Exactly right. Play the game the way you want, but in a public forum like this keep in mind that your way is not everyone's way and behave accordingly. Nobody has the right to demand others follow your own interpretation of the published materials, no matter how well you think you've thought it out and written it.

Now this particular thread started as a question on who, if anyone, was known to be stationed in the Norfolk region. The published materials on that are sparse at best and wide open for interpretation. This has led to a discussion on how many nukes were targeted at the area, and again, the information is limited to listing only a total payload delivered (1MT). Some disagree with my proposition that it was likely (I've never said definitely) multiple warheads, and that's their right, however the limited evidence seems to lean towards two 500kt warheads (nearby strikes are listed as 500kt, a likely launch vehicle carried 8 warheads of this yield, RN7 has stated to his knowledge differing yields were not carried on the same rocket, the 8 warheads fit very neatly into locations on the map with no overlap).

Now if somebody wants to say a single missile delivered a single 1MT warhead to Norfolk, I'm not going to flat out say they're wrong - could well be the case - but from my reading of the available information, two warheads are more plausible. There is nothing in the books to say either scenario is wrong.

If however somebody were to say (for example) twice that yield was dropped and then try to convince the rest of us they were right and the books totally wrong, well, then we'd have a problem wouldn't we...