OT: Brexit

[kato13]

Given the currency trading markets are usually pretty good at predictions it seems to me that this result totally surprised people.

If brexit had failed the pound would not have risen 10% in 4 hours.

[RN7]

Good news for British exporters!

[Olefin]

Good to see that the scaremongers and the so called elite lost out big time - BREXIT is the best thing to happen to the UK in a long time. Course the Scots don't like it one bit at all - the Scottish leaders sounded like they wanted to pull out of the UK as soon as they could.

And loved seeing the absolute panic on the faces at CNN and MSNBC - what the people aren't listening to the elites the polls were wrong people are sick of bureaucrats

Got to wonder if the US election just got a lot more interesting

[Raellus]

Good to see that the scaremongers and the so called elite lost out big time - BREXIT is the best thing to happen to the UK in a long time.

Uh, have you seen the markets Do you understand what this is going to do to the British financial system It's exactly scaremongering that won out here. Protectionism and xenophobia were the driving forces behind the pro-Brexit agenda.

Seriously, this is not good at all.

[Jason Weiser]

I dunno Rae, I think this is some short term panic. Economies, like water, tend (not always) to seek their own level. I think the short term losses on the various markets will be made good by next week, and as for the Pound I would not be surprised if it settles somewhere between $1.40 and $1.50. Not as good as before, but survivable and it will do the British export market some favors.

Thing I am more worried about How bad does the Rio Olympics wind up..everything that can go wrong in Brasil, short of a terror attack or natural disaster, has. I know they cannot call it off, but it's really become a international embarrassment for Brasil.

[RN7]

Course the Scots don't like it one bit at all - the Scottish leaders sounded like they wanted to pull out of the UK as soon as they could.

But if another referendum occurs it will be put to the Scottish people that England heavily subsidises Scotland, and that if Scotland wants to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then the benign subsidisation from England will be replaced by hard nosed German subsidisation.

[Rainbow Six]

But if another referendum occurs it will be put to the Scottish people that England heavily subsidises Scotland, and that if Scotland wants to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then the benign subsidisation from England will be replaced by hard nosed German subsidisation.

Well, I think I'm the only person here who will have a vote when rather than if the next Independence referendum takes place and this time round I'd rather take my changes with Merkel's Germany than Farage's England.

[RN7]

Well, I think I'm the only person here who will have a vote when rather than if the next Independence referendum takes place and this time round I'd rather take my changes with Merkel's Germany than Farage's England.

I don't think Nige will ever become PM, he couldn't even get elected as a MP. Maybe Boris Johnson!!

[Rainbow Six]

I don't think Nige will ever become PM, he couldn't even get elected as a MP. Maybe Boris Johnson!!

I didn't really mean in that sense, it was more a comment on his beliefs.

[RN7]

I didn't really mean in that sense, it was more a comment on his beliefs.

Have you heard the latest utterances from the SNP

With Scotland having a structural deficit of L15 billion, a weak economy hovering close to recession, facing significant economic, legal and political questions about leaving the UK, and also facing the collapse in oil prices and high levels of public spending. Scotland would have to strike a deal with London about paying off its share of the UKs L1.6 trillion debt and lose Scotlands share of the UK rebate, find the cash needed for Scotlands contribution to the EU as well as seeing a flight of British business south to England and losing huge defence contracts, and the EU members would expect Scotland to join the euro.

According to Salmond "There are a range of other options obviously, such as sterlingisation, an independent Scottish currency linked to the pound; an independent Scottish floating currency"

Sturgeon was careful to avoid giving any guarantee, however, that a second referendum would be held, stressing that the challenges of leaving the UK were complex and still unclear since the UK-EU negotiations had not yet begun.

Do they actually know what they are doing

[Rainbow Six]

Nicola said that a second referendum was now 'highly likely'. My reference to when rather than if it took place was purely my personal opinion.

In one sense the SNP leadership know exactly what they are doing - they want to have a second referendum, but only when they think circumstances have changed sufficiently to allow them to win it. They cannot, under any circumstances, risk having a second referendum and losing it. They would have to wait decades before they could call for a third.

However in another sense matters are out of their hands, and that's where they don't know what they're doing. That's because they want to have a referendum when they think they have a chance of winning it, however they also want to have it before the UK formally leaves the EU, which is likely to be up to two years from when the Prime Minister invokes Article 15. Cameron has already said it should be the new PM who invokes Article 15, so because of these factors the timescale is uncertain (and could be further complicated if the other 27 member states attempt to 'fast track' the UK's exit.

Therefore the clock is already ticking on how they deal with the big ticket items, primarily convincing people that we can afford to be independent. Whether they will be able to do that or not remains to be seen, however that's far outwith the scope of this thread, or this board for that matter.

[Olefin]

Uh, have you seen the markets Do you understand what this is going to do to the British financial system It's exactly scaremongering that won out here. Protectionism and xenophobia were the driving forces behind the pro-Brexit agenda.

Seriously, this is not good at all.

Yes I have seen the markets - and sorry but the guys who run those markets were all for REMAIN - look at how high the pound went when they thought they were winning

The reality is that the only scare mongers right now are the ones shorting the British pound trying to desperately punish the British people for leaving the EU - because all they don't want is Britain on her own to succeed - and thus make other EU countries figure enough is enough

Elites don't like being told to go stuff it by the "common folk" - especially elites who have being buying into the EU Kool-Aid for too long - it wasn't protectionism - it was people being sick and tired of Brussels bureaucrats telling a country with a very long tradition of democratic government that they had to do what they said no matter what

Frankly I am betting that Obama and Hillary are looking at what just happened and realizing just how much trouble they may be in if the US feels the same way about them

[RN7]

Cameron has already said it should be the new PM who invokes Article 15, so because of these factors the timescale is uncertain (and could be further complicated if the other 27 member states attempt to 'fast track' the UK's exit.

It could take up to a decade for the UK to completely unwrangle itself from the EU.

Therefore the clock is already ticking on how they deal with the big ticket items, primarily convincing people that we can afford to be independent. Whether they will be able to do that or not remains to be seen, however that's far outwith the scope of this thread, or this board for that matter.

Scotland will have to think long and hard about what is really in its best interest.

Over here in Ireland Sinn Fein are also banging on about a referendum for a United Ireland as Northern Ireland also voted for remain. Imagine Gerry Adams as the president/prime minister of Ireland!!!

[Raellus]

Yes I have seen the markets - and sorry but the guys who run those markets were all for REMAIN - look at how high the pound went when they thought they were winning

So, the sudden and rapid drop of the Pound is deliberate currency manipulation by the anti-Brexiters That's some tinfoil hat stuff right there.

Frankly I am betting that Obama and Hillary are looking at what just happened and realizing just how much trouble they may be in if the US feels the same way about them

Because we have national referendums here in the U.S.A.

Or because the Brexit somehow increases the likelihood of Trump winning the presidential election He's not one of the elite

[Rainbow Six]

It could take up to a decade for the UK to completely unwrangle itself from the EU.

I haven't seen anything authoritative that says more than two years from when Article 15 is invoked (give or take a couple of months). Granted, it may depend on the definition of 'unwrangle' - there could be issues to be addressed that could drag on after the formal exit process is completed.

Scotland will have to think long and hard about what is really in its best interest.

I don't doubt it.

Over here in Ireland Sinn Fein are also banging on about a referendum for a United Ireland as Northern Ireland also voted for remain. Imagine Gerry Adams as the president/prime minister of Ireland!!!

Yeah, the situation in NI is obviously a lot more complicated. I did see an item on the news less than an hour ago that there has been a rush of people from Northern Ireland applying for Republic passports. I suspect some people in the NI Assembly will be watching what happens in Edinburgh over the weeks and months that follow.