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**Raellus** · 04-09-2018, 04:55 PM

Syrian SNAFU

And don't forget that a couple of weeks ago, somewhere close to 100 Russian mercs were killed by U.S. airstrikes after aggressively approaching U.S.-occupied positions.

That said, I don't think this is apt to spill over anytime soon. The U.S. has already proven that it will not react proportionately to Syrian regime chemical weapons use. The worst that the Assad regime can expect is a dozen TLAMs hitting strategically insignificant targets. Target selection is very limited because of Russian presence in or near the Assad regime's most important bases. Neither the U.S. nor the Russians want war with the other- at least not right now.

The international community is really in a pickle. Assad is a war criminal, no doubt about it, but with Russia backing him to the hilt, he is essentially untouchable.

What this latest atrocity could do, though, is increase tension between the U.S./Israel and Iran, another ally of Assad. With Iran and Saudi Arabia already fighting a proxy war in Yemen, the possibility of any of the above conflicts metastasizing into a wider regional war is growing.

Although I don't see it happening in the near future (i.e. days, weeks, or even months), Syria and most of the rest of the Middle East are definitely flashs point for a potential Twilight 2030 scenario.

**RN7** · 04-09-2018, 11:24 PM

I cant see any attacks against the Russian airbase at Latakia, but if there are Russians or Iranians at other locations in Syria were they are not supposed to be then they are fair game. I suppose we will have to wait and see to what extent Assad's forces are attacked, but I think it may be heavy one this time as Trump is even more animated than usual and is also blaming Putin.

On a side note Trump could let the Israelis off the leash which would quickly overwhelm Assad's forces and probably lead to a Russian evacuation from Syria. The way things are in the Middle East at the moment most of the Arab Sunni world would have no problem with Israel attacking the Iranian backed Shiite regime of Assad, and in fact Saudi Arabia might even secretly aid the Israelis. Times have really changed in this part of the world.

**Targan** · 04-10-2018, 06:05 AM

Little to nothing in the way of dramatic military intervention by the US will come of this. And any serious control the US may have thought it had with the Israelis, that's on hold for the duration of the Trump presidency. The Israelis will do whatever they want (or more accurately whatever they think they can get away with).

In any case, it's bleakly comical that the world gets up in arms about civilians being injured and killed by chemical weapons, when our own side has killed many thousands of civilians over the past couple of decades, mostly with explosives. The concern of the US and its allies (including my country) hasn't been whether or not there's been "collateral damage", it's been whether the media coverage can be managed.

**Olefin** · 04-10-2018, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Targan View Post

Little to nothing in the way of dramatic military intervention by the US will come of this. And any serious control the US may have thought it had with the Israelis, that's on hold for the duration of the Trump presidency. The Israelis will do whatever they want (or more accurately whatever they think they can get away with).

In any case, it's bleakly comical that the world gets up in arms about civilians being injured and killed by chemical weapons, when our own side has killed many thousands of civilians over the past couple of decades, mostly with explosives. The concern of the US and its allies (including my country) hasn't been whether or not there's been "collateral damage", it's been whether the media coverage can be managed.

Killing civilians with explosives in wartime is part of what war is - its part and parcel of what happens when bad guys hide in populated areas. And the US and Brits and Germans and French and anyone else you can think of has been doing it ever since they created artillery and bombers

**RN7** · 04-10-2018, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by Targan View Post

Little to nothing in the way of dramatic military intervention by the US will come of this. And any serious control the US may have thought it had with the Israelis, that's on hold for the duration of the Trump presidency. The Israelis will do whatever they want (or more accurately whatever they think they can get away with).

In any case, it's bleakly comical that the world gets up in arms about civilians being injured and killed by chemical weapons, when our own side has killed many thousands of civilians over the past couple of decades, mostly with explosives. The concern of the US and its allies (including my country) hasn't been whether or not there's been "collateral damage", it's been whether the media coverage can be managed.

I couldn't see any US intervention either but I could see Assad's forces getting a serious pounding from air and missile strikes. And I would agree that the Israelis have more freedom to do what they want and they would be a major factor in any ousting of Assad. The Israeli military is vastly stronger than any Middle Eastern rival and would outclass anything that Russia could send to the region these days.

However I would disagree over chemical strikes against civilians being the same as collateral damage from bombs and explosives. The US and allies did not deliberately attack civilians when they were going after Saddam, Al Qaeda, the Taliban or ISIS forces, and all of these were guilty of doing exactly that to their opponents and civilians and a lot worse. Assad used chemical weapons on his own people, its a blatant act of terror.

**rcaf_777** · 04-10-2018, 10:43 AM

This is one of the threads that keep appearing here, not sure why either

This type of OT always leads to

1. Armchair Generals/Armchair Political Analysts
2. Fear Moggers "Crying the world is ending"
3. Angry name calling and temper rants

not of which belong on this forum, if you guys want to talk about this fine, but find another place.

Please close and lock this thread now before things get out of hand.

**RN7** · 04-10-2018, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by rcaf_777 View Post

This is one of the threads that keep appearing here, not sure why either

This type of OT always leads to

1. Armchair Generals/Armchair Political Analysts
2. Fear Moggers "Crying the world is ending"
3. Angry name calling and temper rants

not of which belong on this forum, if you guys want to talk about this fine, but find another place.

Please close and lock this thread now before things get out of hand.

Who are the armchair generals/political analysts that you are referring to
Who are the fear moggers you are referring to
Who are the angry name callers and who are having temper rants

And since when are the members of this board restricted from discussing world events such as this which may interest many members

**Raellus** · 04-10-2018, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by rcaf_777 View Post

This is one of the threads that keep appearing here, not sure why either

This type of OT always leads to

1. Armchair Generals/Armchair Political Analysts
2. Fear Moggers "Crying the world is ending"
3. Angry name calling and temper rants

not of which belong on this forum, if you guys want to talk about this fine, but find another place.

Please close and lock this thread now before things get out of hand.

So far, the contents of this thread have not violated any of the forum guidelines. It's clearly labeled OT, but its subject matter could be of interest to anyone interested in creating/modifying a more up-to-date T2K timeline/history.

Rest assured, I will keep an eye on this thread and, if it seems to be getting out of hand, I will lock it. If this kind of thread bothers you on principle, I recommend that you avoid it.

**RN7** · 04-10-2018, 03:43 PM

For those who are interested the Russians are today jamming US drones over Syria.

Russia has been jamming US drones operating over Syria

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5598751/Russia-jamming-drones-operating-Syria.htmllogin#newcomment

Four US officials say the Russian military began jamming some smaller drones several weeks ago after a spate of suspected chemical weapons attacks on civilians in Eastern Ghouta.

This article states that the USS Harry Truman is heading to the Arabian Gulf.

This website states that the Harry Truman is in Norfolk, and other carriers available are the Abraham Lincoln, George Bush and Gerald Ford also in Norfolk, the John C. Stennis off the coast of California, the Ronald Reagan in Japan, the Carl Vinson somewhere in the Pacific and the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the South China Sea.

CV Locations

http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html

So it will take a week for any carrier to get the Middle East unless Gonavy is been fed deliberately misleading information.

So if they are going to strike Assad immediately it will be through TLAM's or USAF airstrikes.