Twilight 2025

[ChalkLine]

There's a serious situation that most people haven't thought of and that's 'taste of your own medicine' propaganda that goes afoul.

If China, with a vague possibility of cooperation with Russia (the Russians detest China due to their border conflicts and Chinese behaviour during The Cold War) start doing a "see how you like it" set of operations like freedom of navigation cruises just off the US coast. They might underestimate how it would be represented to the US people.

Goodwill trips to places like Haiti with serious naval assets would have sections of the US media go into frothing hysterics and it's not too hard to go into war in situations like that. This is largely what happened with the Cuban Missile Crisis; the Cuban missiles were a bargaining tool to force the removal of Pershing missiles from their Turkish bases near the Soviet Union and the Soviets massively underestimated the US response. However I think the Chinese have far too good an understanding of the US political and social dynamics to make that blunder.

Still, it's a possibility.

[Ursus Maior]

Cuba wasn't about Pershing missiles, those came long afterwards. The problem for USSR missile defense back then were Jupiter MRBMs in Italy and Turkey. Freedom of navigation trips on the West Coast certainly could be done by China, but it's not exactly an exact match for USN FON in the South China Sea, as there are hardly contested islands on the western seaboard or even around Hawaii. So it'd be an obvious scam.

[ChalkLine]

Ahh, Jupiters. I can never work out the US missiles. I also get the Platon/Hades mixed up often.

[.45cultist]

Ahh, Jupiters. I can never work out the US missiles. I also get the Platon/Hades mixed up often.

Russian missiles got the cool names, looking at the "Satan"....

[RN7]

Russian long ranged patrol aircraft (bombers) flying into congested air corridors over the North Atlantic could spark a major incident with NATO.

The Russians turn off their transponders with makes them hard to detect for civilian air control radars, and they are frequently observed on the edges of the sovereign airspace of European states and entering civilian air routes. The North Atlantic is the busiest oceanic air route in the world, handling most international air traffic between North America and Europe and beyond. An airliner out in the Atlantic flying at 600 knots and traveling 12 miles in little over a minute has little time to react if an unknown or hostile aircraft has entered its flight path, and there are hundreds of airliners using these air routes at any given minute of the day.

Every time the Russians do it it causes havoc in the air routes and delays and flight cancellations. NATO fighter aircraft, mainly British and Norwegian, are scrambled to intercept the Russians and escort them away. The worst area for it is now off the north and west coast of Ireland. Ireland has no long ranged military radar system and no fighter jets, and it is also provocative to British security interests and the Russian know it. Because of it neutral Ireland has been forced to make a secret deal with the British government to allow RAF fighter jets to cross over Ireland and patrol Irish air space when a Russian bomber is detected on NATO radars. The issue has embarrassed the Irish government into defending its own airspace through buying long ranged military radars and modern fighter jets for the first time. The F-16 or the Swedish Gripen seem to be the front runners.

[Ursus Maior]

Ahh, Jupiters. I can never work out the US missiles. I also get the Platon/Hades mixed up often.

Yeah, the French are a bit niche for me, too. But it's Pluton first (replacing Hones John) and at the end of the Cold War Hads. In 1992 Hads was introduced, Pluton went out of service the year after. But instead of the planned 120 Hads, only 30 were ordered. They were announced to be put out of service in 1996 with final decommissioning in 1997.

So, all in all, Hads was active only about 5 years.

[Ursus Maior]

Russian missiles got the cool names, looking at the "Satan"....

But those names were given by NATO or US DOD (variations of NATO reporting names). So there is a grain salt.

[.45cultist]

But those names were given by NATO or US DOD (variations of NATO reporting names). So there is a grain salt.

If one is immature, one can giggle at the Chinese "Dong Feng". However, stupidity has little to do with nuclear warfare with China. Callousness and calculations by the CCP might prevail over an y common sense. They have to know US estimates were we could nuke them 10 times and they'd still have enough people to form a larger army, granted one with little equipment.

[Raellus]

Meanwhile, in Eastern Europe...

Tension between Russia-backed Belarus and Poland/the Baltic States.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43147/heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-escalating-crisis-along-belarus-border

Between cyber-warfare and "weaponizing" refugees, I think the Russians have a significant edge on the West when it comes to fighting dirty (i.e. asymmetric warfare).

-

[pmulcahy11b]

If one is immature, one can giggle at the Chinese "Dong Feng".

IIRC, "Dong Feng" translates to "Ballistic Missile."

[Ursus Maior]

Dong Feng translates into 'East Wind' literally.

[pmulcahy11b]

You know, there's an Christian entire prophecy/conspiracy theory about the East Wind and the Apocalypse. I guess I could put an entire mega-post about it, but I'll let you guys look it up yourselves. Have fun, it's a real rabbit hole.

[.45cultist]

IIRC, "Dong Feng" translates to "Ballistic Missile."

OT, yeah it's not as funny as the Vietnamese currency," The Dong is rising against the US Dollar...."

However back to topic, The CCP has a lot of land, a lot of people and if convinced canned sunshine is their only option..... It doesn't have to be true, what is someone pulls the wool over the MSS' eyes Bad intel and hasty decisions make a bad outcome.

[Olefin]

FYI one thing to keep in mind for 2025 is the militarization of the police and many federal agencies in the last few years. There are a lot more guns in the hands of people like the IRS then there was in the old timeline - i.e. thus more opportunities for surviving govt agencies to be very heavily armed (i.e. the old days of them having basically revolvers and shotguns are over)

Also you have police agencies that have A LOT of military equipment - meaning more opportunities for that marauder group that use to be the police having stuff like MRAP's, ex-armored cars, Hummers, etc.. - as well as military grade body armor and equipment

In Ohio between 2006 and 2014, almost 5,000 M16 rifles were distributed to local and state law enforcement agencies in Ohio under the surplus military equipment program

Example - from a 2019 GAO report for the IRS

The current 4,600-gun stockpile includes 621 shotguns, 539 long-barrel rifles, and 15 submachine guns.

According to the Government Accountability Office the ammunition breakdown is as follows:

Pistol and revolver rounds: 3,151,500
Rifle rounds: 1,472,050
Shotgun rounds: 367,750
Fully automatic firearm rounds: 56,000

and as of 2020 the number of non-Defense Department federal officers authorized to make arrests and carry firearms is 200,000

An example - in 1995 the VA had almost no one who was authorized to carry a firearm - they started to carry them in 1996 - as of 2020 they have over 3700 personnel authorized to carry firearms and make arrests that are armed with automatic pistols, body armor, ballistic shields, batons, etc. and a lot of ammo

Thus a federal agency building that still has its people there on duty may be very heavily armed indeed

[Ursus Maior]

You know, there's an Christian entire prophecy/conspiracy theory about the East Wind and the Apocalypse. I guess I could put an entire mega-post about it, but I'll let you guys look it up yourselves. Have fun, it's a real rabbit hole.

Christian, Judean and Judeo-Christian prophecies since Hellenism and especially in the first to second century CE as well as the medieval era are fascinating rabbit holes in general. Somewhere between TV shows like twilight zone and other absurd scifi or urban fantasy. I recommend a thorough read to everyone, especially aspiring authors of fantastic genres.