Taiwan in T2K

[Legbreaker]

How significant are those Soviet forces though Could be aircraft from Taiwan were judged sufficient to keep tabs on them and drop the occasional load of bombs on them...

[Olefin]

The Soviet forces in the original timeline in Vietnam were pretty significant - there was a Front assigned there with several divisions that were taking on the Chinese along with the Vietnamese - more than enough that they could have been a significant threat to Thailand as well.

Again this could be a matter of what timeline you are using - the V1 timeline had them there, the V2 timeline doesnt

[Olefin]

FYI if you are looking at the V1 timeline most likely the US never pulls out of Subic Bay and Clark Field in the Philippines even with the volcanic eruption there - so the place they would probably have their fleet deployments and USAF support elements for China very well would be there especially if what they are doing is keeping the sealanes open for shipments to China and Japan

[RN7]

Taiwan at this time is nearly exclusively armed with U.S. supplied equipment although some local made content was also starting to appear. If Taiwan did send an expeditionary force to mainland China to aid the PRC it would be a natural conduit for NATO arms supplies to China. Taiwan was already using U.S. tanks, vehicles and artillery of various vintage unlike the PRC who would have to be trained in how to use and maintain them.

[Olefin]

Taiwan at this time is nearly exclusively armed with U.S. supplied equipment although some local made content was also starting to appear. If Taiwan did send an expeditionary force to mainland China to aid the PRC it would be a natural conduit for NATO arms supplies to China. Taiwan was already using U.S. tanks, vehicles and artillery of various vintage unlike the PRC who would have to be trained in how to use and maintain them.

Only question would be would be if the Taiwanese prior to the Soviets obliterating the Chinese army and govt have been greeted with open arms or with bullets and shells - remember that China was preparing to possibly invade Taiwan in our timeline in the mid to late 90's - they were in the process of redeploying forces to face them and not the Soviets

[madmikechoi]

The Taiwanese (and US) fight Russian aircraft and shipping, at the urging of the US. The Taiwanese do not commit any troops to the conflict, keeping them for home defense. After the Twilight War (well after the Twilight War, like in the 2020's at least), the US brokers talks that bring Taiwan into the rest of China, with "special considerations and systems" like China gives to Hong Kong. This is in recognition for their service in the Sino-Russian part of the Twilight War.

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

Taipei's neutrality in a Sino-Soviet War would be due to getting the best deal out of Washington- newest arms, a "temporary" US presence during the conflict, immediate reduction of tariffs on Taiwanese goods including Taiwanese multinationals that have manufacturing operations on the mainland, etc.


Mad Mike

[Raellus]

Mind Blown

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

That's a really interesting twist that I hadn't considered. Of course, this risks Taiwan being a target for U.S. strikes, once the U.S.A. joins the war, but probably not nuclear strikes. In fact, if the US Pacific Fleet is is having to fight the Soviet, the North Korean, the Vietnamese, the Indonesian (in solidarity with ally Australia) AND the Taiwanese navies, it could help explain PacFleet losses and the weakness of the USN presented in canon.

[RN7]

Taiwan's existential threat has always been the People's Republic of China. Period. If anything Moscow could and possibly would wave the carrot of letting Taiwan call the shots over a mainland rump state- of provinces across the Taiwan Strait if Taipei launched an invasion at the same time the Red Army ran across China's Northeast, Mongolia and West (this would be predicated on Soviet satellite and ELINT on PLA forces across the Strait).

Taiwan was an existential threat to the PRC during the Cold War when Taiwan was protected by the U.S. and had no hope of ever successfully invading the mainland due to being massively outnumbered by the PRC. Also a militant Taiwan would also have been restrained from invading mainland China by the U.S. and Soviet Union.

Now that mainland China is being invaded by the Soviet Union and the PRC has their backs to the wall the issue of the existence of Taiwan would be of little real consequence to the desperate PRC. It is possible that Taiwan could take advantage of this and ally itself with the Soviets for some territorial gains after the Soviets wipe out the PRC. But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

Firstly they are both Chinese states and blood and language runs thicker than politics particularly when China is being invaded by a long term foe such as the Russians.

Secondly Kuomintang Taiwan has always despised communism and the prime communist state of the Soviet Union. They after all fought a vicious civil war with the Communist Chinese for decades on the mainland and ended up exiled on Formosa because of it.

Thirdly the Kuomintang have been allied with the U.S. since the Second World War and owe their survival to being under American protection. If America was not protecting Taiwan does anyone think it really would not be an offshore province of Communist China by now or in 1995.

Fourthly no Taiwanese government in its right mind would trust the Soviets to give them territory given their record. They have just launched a major and unprovoked invasion of the PRC which is a communist state. What guarantee is there that the Soviets would not renege on their promise and just invade Taiwan, especially after it broke its close links with the U.S.

[Legbreaker]

.But I think it is more likely that they would support the PRC and stay allied to the U.S. for four reasons.

What he said +1.

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

[Raellus]

I agree that Taiwan would be very unlikely to forge an impromptu alliance with the Soviet Union. I just thought it was a really interesting premise that merited further examination.

Personally, I've always found it a bit difficult to understand why the west would have supported China rather than sit back, break out the popcorn and watch. Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

This argument only makes sense if both sides are more or less evenly-matched. It's premised on mutual destruction. What if it appears that one side is going to win quickly and decisively This is what happens in the T2K v1.0 timeline- the Soviets start steamrolling across Manchuria, annihilating the PRC's front line formations. Early on, it looks like only one side is going to be destroyed, leaving the other unchallenged in East Asia. Why would the U.S. want that

Would seem that the west would have been better off letting the two great communist powers destroy each other.

For this to happen, the U.S. has to supply the PRC. It makes perfect sense. If they don't, the USSR defeats the PRC in a year or two, and a major counterbalance to Soviet power in East Asia is permanently removed from the picture. The U.S. would not want this.