Operation Advent Crown

[chico20854]

I've put together the following history of the NATO 1997 Offensive into Poland:
(link here, pdf attached below, maps here, to be on my website soon.)

I built off the fragment of history in Black Madonna and took what I could from the vehicle guides, but most of it is my own creation. Jason Weiser and Fighting Flamingo provided some very helpful comments, so thanks to them for that!

Feel free to use it as you like and share it with others!

Enjoy!

-Chico

[Raellus]

Nice to see you again, Chico. I'm really looking forward to reading this.

[Ewan]

Had a quick look at it and it's impressive.
Think I might be going back a couple of years to 1997 for a small campaign before the nukes start to fly.
Thank you for your hard work in putting it together.

[stilleto69]

Chico, you're back. I really missed your articles. Excellent work as always.

[cawest]

where did you get the part about buying equipment from Egypt and Warsaw Pac compliant ammo and weapons This might be helpful for the African books.

[chico20854]

Glad to stop by when I can!

where did you get the part about buying equipment from Egypt and Warsaw Pac compliant ammo and weapons This might be helpful for the African books.

I just remember reading in Jane's in the 80s and 90s that Egypt manufactured Soviet small arms, D-30s and ZU-23-2s and ammo for them. And when I was a kid the only AKs that got imported into the US were Egyptian. Given the tremendous need of the Chinese, with their industry under air bombardment, it would make sense for them to try to buy as much compatible equipment and supplies as they could. That avoids having to retrain and re-equip some units. Once the war widens and the NVA also needs ammo and equipment resupply it likewise makes sense to buy it from anywhere they can find it. Other likely sources like Jugoslavia are combatants and wouldn't have any production to spare.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

It's worth noting too, that the US Government had contracts with some defence manufacturers and/or certain friendly nations for the supply of non-NATO ammunition & ordnance to allies, rebel groups, etc. etc. who were equipped with non-NATO weapons.
I don't know exactly when this started but I have vague memories of it being in the 1970s or 1980s.

[rcaf_777]

There is a part about this in the Movie Charlie Wilson War, I think the Egypt manufactured Soviet small arms were being used by the Mujahedin

[chico20854]

Here's a (badly translated) link on Egyptian production of reverse-engineered D-30s, ZU-23-2s and M-46 130mm guns and the ammunition (basic HE, AP, HEAT, smoke and illum) for them.

Egypt also manufactured small arms, 82mm and 120mm mortars, grenades, land and naval mines, radios, radars and bombs. The Helwan plant assembled M1 tanks from kits received from the US (gradually adding more locally sourced parts); as the war goes on that assembly line becomes the primary source of replacement tanks and spares for CENTCOM.

[Olefin]

Here's a (badly translated) link on Egyptian production of reverse-engineered D-30s, ZU-23-2s and M-46 130mm guns and the ammunition (basic HE, AP, HEAT, smoke and illum) for them.

Egypt also manufactured small arms, 82mm and 120mm mortars, grenades, land and naval mines, radios, radars and bombs. The Helwan plant assembled M1 tanks from kits received from the US (gradually adding more locally sourced parts); as the war goes on that assembly line becomes the primary source of replacement tanks and spares for CENTCOM.

Keep in mind that Egypt gets nuked in Dec 1997 (at least several of their refineries do) per the East African Sourcebook which is canon - so the question may be does that plant stay in operation with the damage that the nukes do to Cairo and also when the Libyans take out the Aswan Dam with the resultant flooding down the Nile (also canon)

"Cairo, Suez and Alexandria are left in ruins by multiple strikes against the major refineries in those cities."

Target in Cairo would have been Mostorod Refinery which is in northern Cairo so the plant wouldnt have been affected by the blast but very likely by EMP

"December 9, 1997

Taking advantage of the chaos gripping Egypt, Libya launches an attack by Tu-22 bombers against the Aswan Dam, causing the dam to collapse and send a wall of water down the Nile, drowning hundreds of thousands of Egyptians and displacing even more"

[antimedic]

Was Warsaw the longest siege of the war in Europe

[chico20854]

Was Warsaw the longest siege of the war in Europe

Yes. Its the one most prominently mentioned in canon. The other contender would be Berlin (described as like a second Stalingrad in Black Madonna), but the Pact couldn't besiege the city, secure the local area against a hostile local population and fight off NATO simultaneously. Krakow, Lodz and Poznan are all too intact to have suffered an extended siege.

Actually, given the (relatively) low NATO troop density and extended NATO supply lines I was trying to figure out why it took the Pact over 2 months of tactical nuclear warfare to lift the siege of Warsaw (first nuc July 9, siege lifted September 15). Its about 120 miles from Brest to Warsaw, an average of under two miles a day. You would think that any time a NATO unit set up a strong blocking position the Soviets would drop a nuc on it, and if the NATO troops dispersed enough to make that ineffective they are left vulnerable to infiltration. NATO wasn't that efficient in hunting down delivery systems (see ODS Scud hunting!) Part of the reason I ended the document where I did was because I couldn't/didn't want to figure out the tactical/operational nuclear exchange.

[Olefin]

Yes. Its the one most prominently mentioned in canon. The other contender would be Berlin (described as like a second Stalingrad in Black Madonna), but the Pact couldn't besiege the city, secure the local area against a hostile local population and fight off NATO simultaneously. Krakow, Lodz and Poznan are all too intact to have suffered an extended siege.

Actually, given the (relatively) low NATO troop density and extended NATO supply lines I was trying to figure out why it took the Pact over 2 months of tactical nuclear warfare to lift the siege of Warsaw (first nuc July 9, siege lifted September 15). Its about 120 miles from Brest to Warsaw, an average of under two miles a day. You would think that any time a NATO unit set up a strong blocking position the Soviets would drop a nuc on it, and if the NATO troops dispersed enough to make that ineffective they are left vulnerable to infiltration. NATO wasn't that efficient in hunting down delivery systems (see ODS Scud hunting!) Part of the reason I ended the document where I did was because I couldn't/didn't want to figure out the tactical/operational nuclear exchange.

It may be that the nukes were used sparingly at first - i.e. we use one here you use one back and it took a while to get to where Poland got nuked as badly as it did - plainly by the time the US and Germans pulled back from Warsaw there werent any more restraint on nukes - i.e. they basically blew the city away

[Jason Weiser]

There's also when you think about it, the nature of what the nuclear targets are Chico and I looked and discovered that they calculated that it took 5-6 5kt tactical devices to do acceptable damage to a single tank battalion. It takes a lot less, and does more long term damage if you go after the rear area services, so it may be a case of more warheads are being flung at the Pact and NATO rear areas. This has the effect of slowing down the Pact advance to a pace that NATO is somehow managing to retreat faster than the Pact can catch them. (though the fact that it still takes the Pact 2 MONTHS to relieve Warsaw does call that into question).

Viewed in this lens, the NATO retreat makes a LOT of sense, as if you're losing your tactical/operational supply net in the field, it makes sense to retreat to where it's intact, Germany. And the pace of the Pact advance makes sense. Look at the pattern of Soviet advances in WWII, they'd advance for a bit, make great gains, and then peter out when they outran their supply infrastructure (Now yes, this doesn't account for nukes, modern smart munitions, and the fact they're advancing over an atrocious Polish road net that's been fought over twice and now nuked once) Maybe it's just that simple, the road net is such a mess, it cannot support either army very well

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I'll add my voice to the section about the road network.
The quality of any roads in different areas of Poland can vary from average to well below poor.
Drivers in northern Poland generally avoid puddles on the road when they see them, the attitude is that you never know how deep or wide the pothole is, so you go around it to avoid damaging your vehicle.
I saw potholes repaired by simply dumping rubble in them and then covering them over with asphalt. In other places they were repaired by pouring concrete into the hole or by using paving bricks. Over time the area around the repaired section degraded to the point where you no longer had a hole in the road but a higher section that was effectively now a speedbump (or sump remover depending on how low the vehicle was!)

So it's not just the quality but also the consistency of the roads that you have to worry about. Saying that some road repairs were 'slapdash' is probably being kind.
The road quality & consistency did appear to improve the further south I went, I vaguely remember the roads in Krakow where decent, far better than many of the roads I saw in Warsaw and further north.
With several months of heavy traffic I believe most of the roads useful for the military will be severely degraded and only off-road capable vehicles will be able to use them.