Beirut explosion

[Targan]

According to CNN yesterday, this has been revised upwards to 3 Kt.

CNN has used the highest value in the explosive yield range suggested by a very rough analysis using the TNT-equivalent blast calculations developed at the end of the 1940s to estimate the yields of atomic blasts. I think it would have been more sensible for them to give the full range from that early analysis, which was 0.4kt to 3kt.

A summary of the calculations used can be found at this link: http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.c...imensional.pdf

Further refining of the estimates has come from analysis of the seismic effects of the explosion, as mentioned by others previously.

Also, there's absolutely no way 2.7 kt of AN will yield a 3kt explosion. Basic physics states that is a bald faced lie.

Ammonium Nitrate only has 0.32 the energy of TNT, the explosive nuclear yields are measured against. At BEST, it would have have yielded 0.864 kt. If the stars had aligned and everything have been absolutely perfect (enough fuel oil/diesel had soaked in to the AN, somehow mixed itself evenly, and it had exploded within 24 hours of doing so), then, and only then would it have managed a yield of no more than 1.998 kt. Okay, MAYBE 2kt if you include the fireworks that set it off...

MAYBE...

Broadly I agree with this. 3kt is unrealistic, but assuming the Lebanese authorities allow outside observers in to do a more comprehensive analysis, I'm sure we'll have a better idea in the weeks and months to come.

[Jason Weiser]

Ok all, this is my mod color. Consider this a "I am watching this thread and making sure everyone plays nice." Let's keep debates about the relative merits of CNN et al. off of this site. Furthermore, let's keep the tone civil.

Other than that, carry on.

[pmulcahy11b]

Ok all, this is my mod color. Consider this a "I am watching this thread and making sure everyone plays nice." Let's keep debates about the relative merits of CNN et al. off of this site. Furthermore, let's keep the tone civil.

Other than that, carry on.

That's why I stopped participating in this thread -- the political turn it seems to be taking.

[swaghauler]

I have to agree with the Aussies here. They are over-rating the blast by a bit. I guess I still have a few questions like...

1) Why was that AN just left there for SIX YEARS! Didn't the Lebanese have some fields that could have used that AN to increase crop yields

2) Why are they storing explosives in such close proximity to people's residences Why were there no real precautions taken at the AN warehouse

3) Why in the H**L did they put explosives next to a stack of giant Grain Elevators Anyone who knows anything about Grain Elevators, or Corn Silos or Coal Towers knows those things don't need ANY HELP EXPLODING. Even ordinary FLOUR is explosive under the right circumstances. I'm just shocked the Grain Elevators didn't blow as well. That would have generated a nuclear-style blast.

The Halifax and Texas City blasts were similar in scale and would have done about the same damage had they happened at Beirut. Here's a video of a 2K bomb being used on Taliban Insurgents for comparison.

https://youtu.be/u4lk1SCXxVc

[Legbreaker]

I have to agree with the Aussies here. They are over-rating the blast by a bit.

A lot of the answers to those questions are just plain sheer incompetence and corruption. The Lebanese government has been teetering on the brink of total failure for many years now, with most only staying in power through graft, bribery and blackmail.

I had read one report that the Hezbollah didn't want it moved as they desired easy access to it for bomb making materials - would not surprise me in the slightest to find out that was true.

As for the methodology in estimating the blast size, well, basing it on the crater dimensions makes absolutely zero sense. We don't know how exactly the AN was stored, if it was in direct contact with the floor, what the soil density under the building was, etc, etc, etc. There's FAR too many unknown variables to make that even a remotely decent method. No, calculating using the known factors is much more accurate - how much was stored and the deflag rate of AN. Using actual known and reliable stats only yields less than 1kt, so of course we know which way the sensationalist media will go....

[mpipes]

From the photos and the reported 2700 tons of stored AN, I feel comfortable stating the yield came in between 500 tons to 1kt yield. Definitely a much larger bang than the US W48 nuclear 155mm artillery shell (72 ton yield).

[pmulcahy11b]

AN's about 0.35-0.45 the bang of the same amount of TNT. So 2700-3000 tons of AN would give a yield of 0.945-1.35 Kt.

Whatever the blast was, it's a disaster for Lebanon, who may get as much as 75% of their imports and exports through that port, and with the situation in the Middle East in general, may never get the port repaired properly.

[Heffe]

My understanding is that early reports determined the type of explosive by comparing the blast expansion rate against the shutter speed of the cameras which captured the explosion, which provided the detonation velocity. That detonation velocity is specific to explosive type, and therefore the explosive was known to be AN.

I'm not sure where they got the number of 2750 tons - presumably from the size of the blast once the explosive type was known, or from paperwork detailing what was being stored at that location

In any case, as others have mentioned, AN has a relative yield of .42 compared to TNT. Assuming the amount of 2750 tons is correct, and that nothing else was contaminating the AN, that produces an explosion 1.155kt in size. As to whether that was the actual size of the explosion, I'd say it's a fair estimate, but who knows what else may have exploded along with the AN (fireworks, etc.).

[StainlessSteelCynic]

There were wheat silos next to the storage location. As Swaghauler mentioned, the very fine dust from wheat is highly flammable and would easily contribute fuel to the explosion although just how much force it would have is not something I know about.
Just how much AN was at the storage site is open to question as because as Legbreaker mentioned, it is rumoured that Hezbollah was using the stockpile for bomb making purposes.

[mpipes]

There were wheat silos next to the storage location. As Swaghauler mentioned, the very fine dust from wheat is highly flammable and would easily contribute fuel to the explosion although just how much force it would have is not something I know about.
Just how much AN was at the storage site is open to question as because as Legbreaker mentioned, it is rumoured that Hezbollah was using the stockpile for bomb making purposes.

Probably why it was there and had never been used for fertilizer. I wonder if there was a bomb making operation on board.