The USA-PRC Alliance in T2k

[3catcircus]

We're talking the 1990s. I don't understand how events 30 years later and technically another timeline are relevent to this

My point being that everything that happened in the 90s has led to where we are today - there is nothing in the Chinese political trajectory that is vastly different than back then that would result in forming an alliance with the US. The supposition in the v1/v2 timeline seems fallacious in hindsight - they would be more likely to maintain an uneasy truce rather than fight over Manchuria.

While I agree that a US-DPRK is very remote, I think China-US is too. People forget that China's dealings with the US since the time of Mao have been them playing the long game for one purpose only - Chinese communist world domination.

[Raellus]

My point being that everything that happened in the 90s has led to where we are today - there is nothing in the Chinese political trajectory that is vastly different than back then that would result in forming an alliance with the US. The supposition in the v1/v2 timeline seems fallacious in hindsight - they would be more likely to maintain an uneasy truce rather than fight over Manchuria.

I still don't follow. The v1-2.2 history diverges from our reality before 1989 and 1991 respectively.

In any relevant timeline, China was a very important trading partner of the USA c.1995. Allowing our Cold War arch-rival, the USSR, to conquer one of our top-3 trade partners doesn't make sense. On the other hand, providing material support to China in its war against the USSR would have helped the USA close (or even reverse) the trade deficit with China, and/or reduce its debt to China. It would also stick it to the USA's main rival, the USSR.

I just can't see the USA sitting idly by and watching as the Soviet Union seizes control of Chinese resources and markets. If that's the end result of a mid-1990s Sino-Soviet war, the US is going to be in a much weaker geopolitical position vis-a-vis the victorious USSR. It makes a lot more sense that the USA would use the PRC as a proxy to strengthen its own position by weakening the Soviets, especially if doing so would improve our balance of trade and debt situations in the bargain; it's not like China is going to immediately emerge from a draw with the USSR as a richer, more powerful nation. They're both going to be beaten up.

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[Tegyrius]

I'm also lost as to your point, Cat. Both Rae's original thread and my post from this morning are specific to the v1 canon timeline, which explicitly has the US and other NATO nations sending military aid to China.

- C.

[3catcircus]

I'm also lost as to your point, Cat. Both Rae's original thread and my post from this morning are specific to the v1 canon timeline, which explicitly has the US and other NATO nations sending military aid to China.

- C.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: China's trajectory in the late 80s/early 90s in the real world is what has led us to where they are in 2021. That trajectory in the v1 timeline is the same in the late 80s/early 90s as it is in the real world. Why would a communist regime with ambitions of world domination suddenly change course to align with a capitalist democracy and go against another communist regime Sure there is no love lost between China and Soviet Russia, but history before the v1 timeline diverges from reality shows that communist regimes have promoted other communist regimes as a means to an end, even if they don't culturally care for them...

In the real world, in 1996, China ordered Sovremenny destroyers, Kilo submarines and SU-30 fighters from Russia... Even after the fall of the USSR. I just don't see any realistic scenario in v1 or V2 timelines where China and the US ally.

[Raellus]

I just don't see any realistic scenario in v1 or V2 timelines where China and the US ally.

Fair enough. I'm not trying to change your mind, but I do want to challenge a couple of assumptions that you presented.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: China's trajectory in the late 80s/early 90s in the real world is what has led us to where they are in 2021. That trajectory in the v1 timeline is the same in the late 80s/early 90s as it is in the real world. Why would a communist regime with ambitions of world domination suddenly change course to align with a capitalist democracy and go against another communist regime

If the communist Soviet Union attacked the PRC, then yes, absolutely. IRL, there was always tension between Red China and the USSR. Both thought that they were doing communism "right". Both wanted to be in the driver's seat of global communism. That tension, on occasion, escalating to shooting. There were several border clashes between Soviet and Chinese troops between 1949-1989.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/prc-soviet.htm

Just because they were both communist did not mean that they were allies.

In the real world, in 1996, China ordered Sovremenny destroyers, Kilo submarines and SU-30 fighters from Russia... Even after the fall of the USSR.

Ironically, the reason for this is free market capitalism. In 1996, home-grown Chinese weaponry lagged behind Russia and the West. The PRC could get top Russian gear a lot cheaper than they could get comparable western gear. The Chinese also, by 1996, had almost 50 years experience reverse-engineering Soviet weaponry and then producing their own versions. Plus, the west was reluctant to sell top gear to the PRC, especially after the Tiananmen Square massacre. The Russians had no such qualms. In 1996, they were still pretty desperate for hard currency. It was a mutually beneficial short-term financial agreement, and not indicative of close military, economic, or diplomatic ties the two nations (heck, even Malaysia bought SU-30s from Russia).

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