v1 Background: Where/How Should the War Start in Europe?

[Raellus]

Correlation of Causation

I am slightly puzzled as to why Poland (or any other Warsaw Pact nation for that matter) would be considered a potential flash point. While I absolutely agree that there's a potential for civil unrest / protests leading to internal violence I don't follow how that would lead to any sort of armed confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. For sure I could imagine NATO nations using diplomatic and economic measures if Soviet tanks start machine gunning Polish civilians but it's not as if NATO intervened in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968 so I don't see why Poland in circa 1995 would be any different

I agree. Poland makes a bit more sense if one is going with the v4 timeline, but the numbers from this poll and the timeline poll don't match up (to date, only 1 person has voted the v4 timeline most plausible).

[shrike6]

I stuck with East Germany. largely for the reasons that I gave in the other poll about which timeline is most plausible, i.e. it's the version that I know and have played for thirty years and it's only very recently that I've seen its plausibility questioned. As I said in the other thread, I'm not doubting the validity of these questions but for the moment at least I'm sticking with what I know.

I am slightly puzzled as to why Poland (or any other Warsaw Pact nation for that matter) would be considered a potential flash point. While I absolutely agree that there's a potential for civil unrest / protests leading to internal violence I don't follow how that would lead to any sort of armed confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. For sure I could imagine NATO nations using diplomatic and economic measures if Soviet tanks start machine gunning Polish civilians but it's not as if NATO intervened in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968 so I don't see why Poland in circa 1995 would be any different

I also voted for East Germany and Rainbow said it more succinctly than I could but imo the new scenarios presented so far would seem to be more the sanctions/boycott the olympics/stern press conference territory then worthy of WWIII to me. At least the ones that have been presented to this point. The only thing I would add is that there might be a case for Yugoslavia dissolution causing things but the sales pitch would have to be very good on it. My 2 cents on it anyways

[Ursus Maior]

I am slightly puzzled as to why Poland (or any other Warsaw Pact nation for that matter) would be considered a potential flash point. While I absolutely agree that there's a potential for civil unrest / protests leading to internal violence I don't follow how that would lead to any sort of armed confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. For sure I could imagine NATO nations using diplomatic and economic measures if Soviet tanks start machine gunning Polish civilians but it's not as if NATO intervened in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968 so I don't see why Poland in circa 1995 would be any different

Twilight v2.2 started in Poland, didn't it I don't find that particular scenario quite likely, but when the Germans of that edition invaded Poland over ethnic shenanigans (1939 calling), they made Poland the flashpoint of the war. Maybe more people know T2K v2.2 than v1 by now

[unipus]

I should probably go back and re-read my v.2 history.

I didn't vote in the poll. I really don't find any of these backgrounds to be perfect; they all require a major leap of logic of some sort or another.

But as to "why Poland" in the Hungary/Czech playbook... I can answer that, in a way that makes sense to me at least. It comes down to timing and geography, to me. NATO doing a ground intervention in Hungary seems logistically just about impossible, and doing it in 1956 seems even more so. Czechoslavakia was not so much a real nation as a forced marriage. 1968 is the height of the Vietnam War and the height of MAD. I don't see real intervention there being appealing to anyone in the West, whatsoever.

Fast forward 20+ years though and the power dynamic is different. Everyone knows the Soviet Union is collapsing -- not least of all the Soviets! Starting a conflict to try to save your government certainly isn't a new tactic, and it certainly can backfire (see: Israel just a few weeks ago) or escalate in unanticipated ways. Throw in USSR coup dynamics and post-Reagan US bravado and I can see things going sideways. Poland openly appealing to the west for support, all the way up to NATO membership, and I just think it starts to make more and more sense as a focal point.

[Raellus]

In v2, Poland leaves the Warsaw Pact, then rejoins a couple of years later because of the ascendancy of right-wing politicians in a reunited Germany to the west, and a belligerent Belarus to the east. For some reason, Warsaw believes that Moscow's going to help keep Poland safe This double switch- the whole idea of a voluntary "New Warsaw Pact", really- beggars belief, IMHO.

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[Matt Wiser]

How about thinking out of the box and going with a Soviet move into Iran That scenario became more than academic after Afghanistan, and there was concern that a Soviet invasion of Iran was possible after the fall of the Shah and the Iranian military becoming a shadow of what it had been up until then.

This is the scenario depicted in Harold Coyle's Sword Point....though somehow, the two superpowers limit the conflict to Iran and adjacent waters. It would've spread to a major conventional war in Europe, had such a thing ever gone down, IMHO.

[Ursus Maior]

For some reason, Warsaw believes that Moscow's going to help keep Poland safe This double switch- the whole idea of a voluntary "New Warsaw Pact", really- beggars belief, IMHO.

Yes, Poland believing (Soviet) Russia would be its knight in shining armor is the opposite of how Polish politicians or generals seemed to have viewed upon such matters for the last centuries: the huge gap of an existing Polish state proving them right, probably.

[Targan]

This is the scenario depicted in Harold Coyle's Sword Point....though somehow, the two superpowers limit the conflict to Iran and adjacent waters. It would've spread to a major conventional war in Europe, had such a thing ever gone down, IMHO.

I remember Sword Point having a big impact on me when I read it. Man... that was a long time ago!

[unipus]

Poland is at least as anti-Russian as they are anti-German if not more so, so yeah, that doesn't really hold water.

[The Zappster]

I worked with a Polish lad recently and asked him about his feelings towards both nations. He told me he preferred Russians to Germans. This was a surprise to as a couple of years before a friend of mine had a Hungarian girlfriend. They went to an airshow together and my friend spoke to a Russian. After biting his head off for talking to a Russian, she didn't talk to him for 2 days.

[Rainbow Six]

I remember Sword Point having a big impact on me when I read it. Man... that was a long time ago!

Sword Point is really good. If anyone here hasn't read it I'd highly recommend it. I loaned my copy to an ex work colleague years ago and never got it back.

[Ursus Maior]

Poland is at least as anti-Russian as they are anti-German if not more so, so yeah, that doesn't really hold water.

In my experience the anti-German notions have largely ebbed off by now. There was always big hat-tipping by the Polish towards Germans and Germany in certain aspects. For example, after the Great War, the Polish military was closely modeled after the Prussian and German army and its experiences of the war. Of course, the other too likely role models would have been the Imperial Russian and Imperial Austrian army, which didn't exactly fare with bravado during that particular war. But somewhat interestingly the victor's armies, UK and France, were not close role models, probably because J3zef Piłsudski had knit close ties with the Germans between 1917 and 1919.

The following decades certainly put heavy strain on German-Polish relationships, but since 1990 they have become very amicable in both directions. And personaly I think it's a waste of opportunities that Germany does not commit itself more to European defense, the Polish certainly have been begging for it for 30 years. Especially now that their Eastern neighbor is resurgent in military power, has Poland more than once uttered the need for more allied troops on its soil and the explicit wish that Germany commits more fully.

[Ursus Maior]

I worked with a Polish lad recently and asked him about his feelings towards both nations. He told me he preferred Russians to Germans. This was a surprise to as a couple of years before a friend of mine had a Hungarian girlfriend. They went to an airshow together and my friend spoke to a Russian. After biting his head off for talking to a Russian, she didn't talk to him for 2 days.

There is certainly a lot of personal feelings into this. But I find that current generations have a more relaxed stance toward most of these matters. I hope, future children will not have to endure being taunted for being German or Polish or whatever simply because that's their nationality.

[Olefin]

I would think that the two most likely flashpoints would be an East Germany attempt to reunify with the West - and given the losses they took in the war with China that makes complete sense to me as to what the V1 flashpoint would be

if I had to pick a second one I would say a Soviet crushing of Solidarity where the Polish military decides to fight back. That could lead to a NATO ultimatum where people like West Germany, the US, the UK and others say there will be no more Hungary's and Czechoslovakian crushed revolts - that this time they are making a stand - figuring the Soviets are too weak to fight two wars at the same time

and then off we go to the races

[Mahatatain]

How about thinking out of the box and going with a Soviet move into Iran That scenario became more than academic after Afghanistan, and there was concern that a Soviet invasion of Iran was possible after the fall of the Shah and the Iranian military becoming a shadow of what it had been up until then.

From memory isn't the start of Red Storm Rising by Tom Clancey something along these lines as well Azerbaijani militants destroy Soviet oil refineries crippling their economy so they decide to seize the Persian Gulf. As a diversion to that invasion the KGB stages attacks by West Germany on the Soviet Union to destabilise NATO and give them an excuse to invade West Germany.

Does something along those lines sound feasible as a start of WWIII in Europe It wouldn't necessarily result in the withdrawl of France from NATO or the other changes between NATO and the Warsaw Pact but would it set up a believeable situation for T2k