OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[swaghauler]

So Putin invaded the Ukraine today and we did nothing, but now... China has jets invading Taiwan's airspace. We have a treaty with them and they do make like 95% of the World's computer chips.

[swaghauler]

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

[Tegyrius]

It'll go well with the spam cans of Ukrainian surplus 5.45 that I bought when they were under a hundred bucks each. I'll bet they'd like 'em back now. :/

- C.

[Targan]

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

Twenty years and several motorcycle accidents ago I would still have been keen. Sadly this Aussie's most useful combat role these days would be as a sand bag.

[Raellus]

Life Imitating Art

It's sad to see speculation from months and even years ago becoming present-day reality.

I really hope that China does not conclude from the way that Russia's Ukraine invasion is going down (and NATO's response, so far) that it is time to "liberate" Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal claims that Russia and China "now hold a stronger hand in confronting the West than during the Cold War".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-crisis-kicks-off-new-superpower-struggle-among-u-s-russia-and-china-11645629753st=9xerapmgzs8pqvc&mod=WSJACQ_US_RussiaUkraine_OPW&fbclid=IwAR1rLSqKNa-nz_8pMSrLFAtpu2E90XJLdou631stM5v0wyUI_WTVxjrT8eM

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[Nowhere Man 1966]

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

I saw that too, I prefer a Henry Rifle, or replica of one) that was used in the Civil War, or Steve McQueen's "Mare's Leg," but....

There is one You-Tuber I enjoy, Sergei of the Ushanka Show about him growing up in the USSR. He's Ukrainian and thought that Putin would back down. I just knew Putin was going to do it, maybe it is my pessimistic side, knowledge of history or just gut feeling but this time I hate being correct.

[Raellus]

I'm Not Crying, You're Crying.

This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NOCbW1hc6Ng

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[swaghauler]

So now Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. Three days into the conflict and Russia is already threatening nuclear war... over the West rendering aid to Ukraine. The standing consensus among both NATO and the hobbyists who were following the news feeds is that Russia can sustain this tempo of operations for 7 days. IF the fight stretches out to 10 days, the Russians will lose the initiative due to a lack of fuel and ammo.

[Raellus]

Uh-oh

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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[Targan]

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he could be removed by the Russian security services or the military. Personal loyalty only goes so far, particularly if the mood of the Russian populace continues to turn against the current course of action.

[swaghauler]

I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

[.45cultist]

I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

I was also integrating T54/55 western upgrade like Isreal has done. Adding a 105MM, western diesel and powertrain. I also added M60A3's from NATO stocks for reserve fomations.

[Mahatatain]

This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.

https://www.youtube.com/watchv=NOCbW1hc6Ng

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Very powerful. Thanks for sharing.

[shrike6]

Interesting article

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/02/can-ukraine-really-use-donated-fighter-jets-depends/362505/

[Ursus Maior]

IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I'm not sure if Russia could afford going anywhere once they would have one this war. Right now, the Russian ruble has dropped below 1 cent ($ or ) and Russia is not building new smart weapons, since they need imports from the EU for that.

Also, I'd not exactly call Putin old guard KGB, he's basically the last generation of career officers, who made it into a professional career while the USSR still existed. He was never as reliable as the old school leaders of the KGB or USSR used to be. He seems to have self-radicalized during the pandemic, too, so what we're missing from him is reliability and trustworthiness, which existed between top-level officials during the 1970s and 1980s.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

There are basically no Leopard 2A4s left for anyone to buy and no one in NATO would want to. The A4 model is a 30 year old piece of equipment and badly out of date: The gun is too short, armor to low and optics/sensors badly out of date. Buying the latest model, the A7 generation (different iterations available) is expensive, however. The same goes for buying old F-15s. That's not what Poland needs, those birds are old and obsolescent. I think Poland will go for the F-35 as is Germany now after it's surprisingly decisive course change this weekend: There will be a 100 billion fund for the Bundeswehr this year as well as a a true funding North of 2 % BIP in every future year. Currently, that would mean a defense budget approaching or beyond of 80 billion per year for Germany, or about 25 % more than Russia lately spent, but without nuclear forces to pay for as well as no cheap conscripted soldiers (as of today, who knows what 2022 will hold).

However, neither the 250 M1 Abrams nor airplanes will be available for Poland immediately, let alone integrated into the armed force. The same can be said for Bulgaria, who was a mentioned second candidate for a fighter swap scheme with Ukraine.

However, everything not immediately available to Ukraine and accessible without long transition and training periods, won't help Ukrainians win the war. This war is entering a new phase today, as Russia is shelling Kharkiv heavily - one might speak of an early 'Grosny' treatment - and approaching Kiev with a 40 km long column of mechanized forces including logistical elements. The battle for Kyiv will decide the next phase of the war and might decide the whole war indeed, since Russia could install a puppet regime in conquered Kyiv and keep pushing into the rest of Ukraine after that. Should Ukrainian forces loose their C3 facilities and or political leadership sitting in Kyiv, this would be a huge blow to the country's fight to remain independent and sovereign.

That being said, I do not see a way, where this war can be won by Ukraine without considerably more aid by Western nations, including direct support by NATO and/or EU troops. This would up the ante, however, as Russian troops could, and indeed likely would, be fired upon by Western troops and vice versa. As everyone can imagine, this could spill over into Belarus and later NATO partners, such as Poland, the Baltic nations, Romania as well as others, too.