One Second After (A novel about EMP)

[Raellus]

Sometimes I like to torture myself by listening to Sean Hannity (a conservative American radio talk show host and Republican party apologist) on my way home from work and today he had on an author by the name of Forstchen who was promoting his fictional account of a "Black Swan" EMP strike on the U.S.

The book is called One Second After.

Although it's fiction, the author stressed the realism of the scenario he presented in the book and stated that a single, powerful EMP strike on the U.S. could, within a few years, lead to a casualty rate of 90%. The guy wants Americans to lobby their congressmen to resume funding for some EMP defense research program I didn't even know existed.

Granted, I tend to take everything that Hannity and members of his mutual admiration society say with at least a grain of salt, but the claim cited above sounds pretty extravagant. I'm of the school of thought that believes a T2K type war would ultimately result in a return to the Dark Ages (at least politically, socially, and economically, if not technologically) but a 90% death rate after a single EMP attack

Anyway, I won't be spending my hard-earned money on the hardback edition out now but I'm wondering if I should pick up a copy when it comes out in paperback.

Anyone read it

[pmulcahy11b]

The back story of the Dark Angel series goes into an EMP strike (two bombs, I believe) on the US. There wasn't 90% casualties, but as the original introduction to the shows says, "The United States went from a superpower to a third world country in an instant." There are pockets of high technology, but not many.

[kato13]

The problem I have with such a scenario is that the US being destroyed is not in the interest of other nations which could provide equipment to rebuild the infrastructure. I would expect that within a week ships and aircraft from the UK, France, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan would be on their way loaded with equipment.

I picked these countries as there is a history of either long term protection or previous reconstruction assistance by the US. Of course I expect other countries would help out as well.

[pmulcahy11b]

The problem I have with such a scenario is that the US being destroyed is not in the interest of other nations which could provide equipment to rebuild the infrastructure. I would expect that within a week ships and aircraft from the UK, France, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan would be on their way loaded with equipment.

I picked these countries as there is a history of either long term protection or previous reconstruction assistance by the US. Of course I expect other countries would help out as well.

I agree -- imagine the vast market for electronics that would exist in the US after even a small EMP event!

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I think EMP is overrated unless you are right next to the source. I think most cars would still run although there are a few that can be knocked out but on most tests, you just turn the key and it will start again. Auto electronics are generally designed to withstand a lot of harsh conditions. Generally if it isn't hooked to the power mains and you have your antennas folded or disconnected, it will most likely survive. The computer you are using now has a good chance of being fried but the one that is disconnected and sitting on the shelf in your basement or Bob's Computer shop should be OK.

[Legbreaker]

There's some very good stuff here especially towards the bottom http://forum.juhlin.com/archive/index.php/t-267.html
Basically, EMP is nasty. If it's not shielded, chances are something is going to happen. Exactly what, and how much is the question....

Note that your suggestion in that thread that the body will act as a Faraday Cage has been disproven.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

There's some very good stuff here especially towards the bottom http://forum.juhlin.com/archive/index.php/t-267.html
Basically, EMP is nasty. If it's not shielded, chances are something is going to happen. Exactly what, and how much is the question....

Note that your suggestion in that thread that the body will act as a Faraday Cage has been disproven.

I could see it if you have a Corvette or some other car with a fiberglass body but for the most part, the car's body would act as a Faraday shield. I know the same effect occurs with metal aircraft too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage

I think EMP is mainly a danger to large scale things like power transmission but I think the small stuff will be OK if it is shielded fairly well or disconnected from any antennas and power sources. I'm not saying it is nothing to worry about but it isn't the 800 lbs. gorilla it is made out to be, actually it is more like a 400 lbs gorilla.

Chuck M.

[Legbreaker]

I think you should try reading the entry you're refering to.

You'll note that for a faraday cage to be effective, any holes in it's surface must be smaller than the wavelength of the EMP - usually nothing much less than a solid surface is going to cut it, and as as cars, trucks and buses have windows, etc....
Also, to be effective, it must be grounded. A cars rubber tyres are an effective insulator preventing the necessary grounding taking place.

Parts of a car may be protected, but as the wiring looms commonly travel through all parts of the vehicle, AND anything worth protecting is almost invariably connected to something which is in an exposed area....

As stated in the previous EMP thread, tracked, armoured vehicles are less likely to be effected because they're surrounded in armour AND their metal tracks effectively ground them. There is likely to be some impact on them however, but it is likely to be less than a civilian vehicle.

It really does come down to luck of the draw on the whole though. Nobody to date, and I rather doubt in the future too, has conducted wide scale testing of vehicles specifically to determine the effects of EMP. We can assume though based on the minimal testing which has been carried out, that some vehicles, regardless of age, will be more or less suceptible than others.

Aircraft are another matter altogether. I believe most are built specifically with the possibilty of outside interference in mind with vital components shielded and redundant systems. This is especially true with the larger passenger aircraft carrying millions of people every day, and even more so (one would hope) in the multimillion dollar military aircraft our various governments are so proud of. The average private small prop driven aircraft on the other hand....

[Raellus]

An episode of Futureweapons a season or two ago focussed on EMP. The host drove a '80s or '90s model car (a Cadillac maybe) under an EMP generator and the pulse killed the car dead. Granted, it was directly beneath the EMP (no more than 10m away) but still.

And I think the point of the book is that without a functioning power grid, it matter worth squat whether any of your home appliances survived the EMP. They wouldn't work without a reliable electrical current.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I think you should try reading the entry you're refering to.

You'll note that for a faraday cage to be effective, any holes in it's surface must be smaller than the wavelength of the EMP - usually nothing much less than a solid surface is going to cut it, and as as cars, trucks and buses have windows, etc....
Also, to be effective, it must be grounded. A cars rubber tyres are an effective insulator preventing the necessary grounding taking place.

Parts of a car may be protected, but as the wiring looms commonly travel through all parts of the vehicle, AND anything worth protecting is almost invariably connected to something which is in an exposed area....

As stated in the previous EMP thread, tracked, armoured vehicles are less likely to be effected because they're surrounded in armour AND their metal tracks effectively ground them. There is likely to be some impact on them however, but it is likely to be less than a civilian vehicle.

It really does come down to luck of the draw on the whole though. Nobody to date, and I rather doubt in the future too, has conducted wide scale testing of vehicles specifically to determine the effects of EMP. We can assume though based on the minimal testing which has been carried out, that some vehicles, regardless of age, will be more or less suceptible than others.

Aircraft are another matter altogether. I believe most are built specifically with the possibility of outside interference in mind with vital components shielded and redundant systems. This is especially true with the larger passenger aircraft carrying millions of people every day, and even more so (one would hope) in the multimillion dollar military aircraft our various governments are so proud of. The average private small prop driven aircraft on the other hand....

Well, the Faraday Cage doesn't always have to be grounded to be effective, some say the rubber tires would actually help. I do remember when I was a kid, some 1960's era cars had grounding strips.

Aircraft, I would say it is possible you would lose the radio and navigation aids but the plane would still run, most small private planes run off of a magneto system. I remember one of my teachers in high school (he's pushing 90 and still flies as well as teaching his great grandchildren how to drive) flew B-24's in World War II and remembers lightning striking them but there was no effect, granted back then, it was all vacuum tubes.

I do agree with you that there is a matter of luck, other factors, maybe even God Himself, who knows, but I do understand it is the roll of the dice, I just really don't think EMP is the 800 lbs gorilla it is made out to be, more like a 400 or 500 lbs gorilla.

Chuck M.

[Abbott Shaull]

That would be the main problem. How much of the power grid would be destroyed. You have the event, and then as those areas stop, you have the effects of the surrounding grid try to compensate for that and some of this could be damage a great extent. How much will be effected, we may never find out.

Yes, with out the power grid, and if you don't have access to generator, your appliance at home will not work anyways. Then you have the entire problem of moving things from point A to point B. Or if the EMP area had such facilities as refineries or petro-chemical plants and how many they affect. Well, if you don't get gas for the generator it is worthless after you run out, or the fact you may have to chose traveling or having power.

90% seems high, but it can be possible. We have grown into society that depends too much on services that we take way to much for granted. With an EMP event say in or around Houston, LA-Long Beach, NYC-Boston, Chicago, or some major city along the Mississippi could have that affect. All for very different reasons too.

Just some thoughts

[Graebarde]

IMHO IF a strike such as this occured, and IF it was effective in knocking out the majority of power, without outside support and in short order the US would be in a world of hurt.

Depending on the time of year the attack occurs speeds the disaster results. IF it is mid winter, with sub-zero weather over 3/4 of CONUS, the deaths from exposure (lack of heating) will take it's toll on a large number of persons. Those trying to heat with wood in homes/structures not designed for the purpose will 1) burn the building down and those around it as there will be limited fire suppression due to lack of operational fire apparatus and/or lack of water pressure; 2) carbon monoxide poisoning due to fumes from fires in enclosed areas by those not venting the structure properly. This will be the first wave of death.

Food distribution will fail within two weeks without transportation. People in the US typically have less than two weeks food in their homes (Yes Virginia there are people with long term food supplies, but MOST do not). FEMA will NOT be able to help the whole country and the goverment does NOT have long term supplies of processed food on hand. Government stockpiled food has never existed, rather it is raw materials in farm bins or warehouses around the country which must be processed to some degree and still be transported to the urban centers.

Medical facilites will 'shut down' for practical purposes as we know them now without energy to run the life support systems, OR and ER will be by lamp light at best. Thousands will die in short order without the medical support we now have, many within minutes of the lights going out, others taking days perhaps weeks.

This the tip of the iceberg.

IF the attack is in warmer seasons, the exposure losses will not be a great, however food loss due to lack of refrigeration will climb rapidly. FOOD shortages will cause riots in the urban areas and roving bands of hungry persons will start moving out of the cities within two weeks.

The defense forces (law enforcement/military) will be hindered with transportation problems as much as anyone. Communications will be negligable in the worst case scenario. Their thoughts, totally understandable, will be for the safety and well being of their families rather than a bunch of strangers.

I would predict the fall to anarchy in large urban areas would be rapid as the bangers take advantage of the situation.

Yes there will be local areas that will fair better than others, not because they are out of the path of violence or luck as much as the leadership of persons who quickly identify the situation for what it is, and have forsight in what it will take to survive until 'essential' resources/services are restored. They will NOT sit back and wait for the feds or even state to come to their aid. They will organize, inventory, allocate and do what is necessary to maintain order on the local level.

Enuff ramblin'

Grae
(thought on the subject for longer than most of you have been alive)

[natehale1971]

Thank you Grae... you hit on what the guy who wrote the book was talking about... the social chaos would be.... well, horrible to say the least. It won't just be groups of urban street gangs would see this as their chance to increase their turf. but the really nasty criminals out there like the various ethnic Mobs that have been growing as problems across the country. I was told by a local police officer that the local chapter of MS13 has access to major miltiary hardware (from the way he was acting it was M60s, grenade launchers, ect), and he was really upset when they found this out when they had uncovered them. And was even more upset that the police where told NOT to allow the local press or citizens to find out about what they found. He was in the US Army, and had been a SAW gunner. And he said what they had their hands on was heavy crew served weapons. I'm ex-Navy, so i'm just guess what they've gotten their hands on.

We should also think of charismatic manipulator types who've been local political activitists taking advantage of such chaos after national communications have been knocked out thanks to a major EMP attack.

They are out there... Someone on the T2k Wiki came up with the Peoples Republic of Boulder as an example of what this can become.

Has anyone been watching the news about how ACORN is being investigated for curroption charges I've used ACORN as an example as a grassroots organization that could easily become an "Alliance for a Progressive New America" in my campaigns when it comes to 'New America' just to break away from the usual 'ultra right-wing organization'...

[Targan]

What is MS13

[kato13]

What is MS13

A really nasty LA street gang, primarily composed of Central American immigrants.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mara_Salvatrucha