Mexican Army Sourcebook complete

[Rainbow Six]

with how amny tens of millions of Mexican background citizens and other south American citizens in the US - would using WMDs against the estados unidas de Mexico -and especially the big cities-be an option

I tend to agree with HQ here...whilst I think tactical nuclear strikes on key military targets, supply lines etc is possible (perhaps even probable), I think the JCS might stop short of an attack on Mexico City...if the goal is simply to destroy Mexico's leadership, it's massively disproportionate; as well as HQ's argument, which I think is a good one, several other good reasons have already been put forth, not least the fact that the two countries have to live side by side after the War. Also, killing the Mexican Government may act as a barrier to future peace negotiations if there is no one on the Mexican side for the US to negotiate with (I'm sure the original V1 timeline includes a statement about the European War after the first nuclear exchange that goes somewhere along the lines of "peace might have been possible but there were no Governments to talk to each other")

Just my tuppence worth...

[John Farson]

Very interesting debate here. I too have always thought that Mexico would get nuked in the Twilight War after the Mexican Army crosses the border with Division Cuba. It's the degree of the U.S. strike that's the question, ranging from a full-blown attack (i.e. nuke every Spanish-speaking person between the Rio Grande and the Yucatan) to a targeted one (hit the rail hubs, the troop concentrations, supply junctions, the Mexican government in Mexico City etc.) and watch the Mexican Army and Division Cuba quickly run out of gas and supplies and disintegrate in a wave of mass desertions and surrenders.

As others have already pointed out, the JCS would have various things to take into account. First of all the total annihilation option is out, because at the end of the day Mexico isn't the USSR/Russia. You don't really need THAT many nukes to render Mexico harmless. And it's quite obvious that not everyone in Mexican political and military circles would support this mad scheme anyway. Also, the JCS has to take into account that any nukes too close to the border would potentially also endanger Americans with the fallout. Also, nuking your worst opponent in retaliation for his nuking you is different from nuking a country without nukes. Having said that, I do add the caveat that certain other non-nuclear countries would have also been hit hard (e.g. Canada and Japan).

That being said, it's also out of the question that the JCS would withhold from using nukes at all to stop the Mexican advance. The Mexican government has essentially stabbed the U.S. in the back. The nuclear strikes of Nov./Dec. 1997 have decimated the U.S. military and U.S. forces in America are stretched thin as it is. They have no way of conventionally stopping the Mexican advance. Any prior reluctance in using nukes is out the window as the nuclear genie hasn't just been let out of the bottle, it's been smashed out of the bottle. So nukes is what they'll use, against the Mexican military, transportation hubs and the Mexican government. There will be an attempt to avoid excessive civilian deaths, but it has to be said that with the nukes, the civil war, famine, epidemics and general political and social breakdown that Mexico will be just as worse off as the U.S., if not even more so.

[John Farson]

Having said all that, I do have to wonder, though, whether a Mexican invasion of the USA after the November nuclear strikes would really even have come to pass. IMHO, no Mexican government, regardless of what party running it, would be stupid/insane enough to consider stabbing the U.S in the back in such a scenario. They would have to consider that even after the nuclear exchange the U.S. would still hold a number of nukes in reserve, more than enough to bomb Mexico to the stone age if necessary. And I'm sure the JCS would warn the Mexican president, in no uncertain terms, that any aggressive moves toward the U.S. would be met with immediate, nuclear retaliation. And any constraints the U.S. might have once had in using nukes would be gone after the world blowing up and millions of people already dead.

[kalos72]

Not to mention the fact that all their refinery capability has been nuked to hell...where are they getting the fuel.

[Webstral]

In 1998, the Mexican Army is probably getting its fuel from the same place the other combatants are: pre-Exchange stocks. It can't have escaped the notice of the Mexican leadership that in July NATO and the Pact start exchanging nuclear fires. Given the importance of oil to the world's economy and the war effort, everyone with an oil rig in-country probably starts thinking about stockpiles, if they haven't thought about this already. After 1998, though, the Mexicans probably switch to alcohol like everybody else.

Stupid is as stupid does. While I'm inclined to agree that the invasion of the US was ill-considered and that its real purpose is to advance the game, I'm willing to play along because people do insane things when they feel they are under pressure. After the Germans had very clearly lost the war on the Eastern Front, Bulgaria joined the Axis and declared war on the Soviet Union. This was an insanely stupid thing to do, but it was done. The Japanese started a war in the Pacific under the assumption that the US would not use its overwhelming manpower and industrial advantage if the Japanese could establish a favorable position before beginning negotiations. We all know how well this turned out.

The Mexicans have a couple of reasons to think that a border skirmish with the US might turn out in their favor. The first is that the US has been very badly hurt. There hasn't been a chance like this in 150 years. The second is that the PRI needs a foreign adventure. In the wake of the nuclear attacks on Mexican oil, the collapse of the global economy, and the unequal distribution of relief supplies (in keeping with the racial and economic themes of Mexico), the PRI needs something to distract the people and unite the country. There's nothing like a little foreign adventure to fit the bill. With a nuclear guarantee from the Soviet Union (or maybe France), the Mexican leadership might have felt that a border skirmish was practicable. A few fights, a few setbacks for the Americans, and they would come to the table with some modest territorial concessions. The Mexican Army would relinquish territory captured in excess of the concessions, and the PRI could claim to have reversed 150 years of shame. Everybody wins--except of course that the Americans chose to go nuclear instead of coming to the bargaining table.

The PRI invades the US for essentially the same reasons the Sauronski regime goes nuclear: they're out of power and probably dead if they don't do something decisive. [Expletive deleted] the fate of the nation--these guys have their lives and personal fortunes on the line. Neither government probably imagined things getting so out of hand. With the Americans NOT suing for peace, the Mexicans are forced to push ever deeper into US territory. Pretty soon, they are at the limits of their strength, and both sides are locked in a stalemate.


Webstral

[Matt Wiser]

The Mexicans probably didn't think there would be nuclear retaliation, especially if Webstral is right and the Soviets promised nuclear support in event there was such action. No doubt they wondered what in the hell they'd gotten themselves into when cities like Hermosillo, Monterrey, Tampico, Chihuaha City, etc. go up in nuclear fire. Even a strike near Mexico City (their AF's main base is at Santa Clara, east of Mexico City, would drive that home, not to mention 10 KT on Benito Juraez IAP (Mexico City's main airport). The effects on the Mexican Army in the field would be serious from a supply standpoint, and moralewise...even more so. Especially units raised from cities that were hit, even if low-yield ground or near-ground bursts were used to destroy rail yards and other supply infrastructure (though the grunts wouldn't know that-they'd assume home just got totally slagged). The Mexican Army starts to break up as a result. Civil War is delayed, but it starts eventually. The Soviets in Division Cuba are past being screwed-they're being wheeled into the delivery room. They're 10,000 miles from home, a hostile civilian population around them, and their "allies" are getting ready to fight each other. Not a good place to be....

[Webstral]

The [limited] nuclear option against Mexico brings a bit of the European flavor to North America. The US isn't up against an intact minor-to-medium power. Strikes againat the oil infrastructure, EMP, and attacks on the Air Force, Navy, and logistical infrastructure level the playing field a bunch.


Webstral

[Webstral]

I was thinking a bit about reconciling Turboswede's work with canon. What if Mexico rides the upsurge in arms sales in 1995 & 1996 by producing French equipment under license If Mexico gears up to produce a handful of French AFV--such as VAB, Lynx, and scout cars--we could see a greater standardization of French-designed light AFV in the Mexican Army. Mexico could keep a few back for her own use. After the nukes start flying, Mexico could keep the factories operating and equip her own formations.

Webstral

[Matt Wiser]

And those factories are targets when SAC flies south of the border. Not nukes, mind you, but there would be enough iron bombs available to do the job.

[Webstral]

And those factories are targets when SAC flies south of the border. Not nukes, mind you, but there would be enough iron bombs available to do the job.

Without arguing about whether the USAF would have assets to do the job in June 1998, the destruction of key Mexican plants fits nicely with the overall tone of Twilight: 2000.

Webstral

[Legbreaker]

I can see nukes being more likely than planes actually - most of the planes are occupied elsewhere in the world, a fact which surely had some bearing on Mexico's decision to invade. Nukes on the other hand....

[Matt Wiser]

Not every SAC base is on GDW's target list, and then there's the recovery fields (fomer AF bases, civilian airports, and other AF bases-TAC, MAC, ANG, etc.). There'd be munitions available. And if conventional weapons aren't available in quantity, there's enough B-61s or B-83s left....

[kalos72]

Anyone put together a list of nuclear targets by chance Or even just strategic military/oil production targets...

[Lawstcause]

Just don't see it

I know this is an old thread but I just don't see the invasion working out the way the canon has it. First you've already discussed the Nukes and the fact that most of the Mexican equipment is dated. Also, I don't believe their troops are well trained enough to take on even what is left in the US.

[Matt Wiser]

Same here. Personally, I think GDW's writers got the idea from a passage in the book The Day After World War III, where the question is raised about the behavior of U.S. neighbors after a nuclear attack on the U.S. "Would Cuba, Mexico, or even Canada, try and encroach on the U.S. after a nuclear exchange" (even though Canada would have taken its share of weapons...) And even if the Mexicans did try the invasion, SAC, even in its weakened state, would have enough weapons to see to it that the invasion is stopped in its tracks by blasting their supply lines with B-61s turned to the low yield setting. (somewhere betwen 20 and 40 KT)