Weapons Timelines for the Twilight War

[Raellus]

I don't know why I keep coming back to this, but I like to think about the weapons and equipment that would likely be fielded in the Twilight War, especially in the later years, in contrast to what was fielded at that time IRL. A lot of this has been covered in other threads, but I couldn't resist a consolidated discussion of what was, what is, and what could have been.

UK: L85, L85A1/SA80, SLR, and/or Armalite AR-18

IRL, the early production version of the SA80 (aka the L85) had a dreadful reputation and the improved L85A1 version only entered widespread service right around 2000. In the Twilight world, this may not have occured. Instead, the UK may have reissued the venerable 7.62mm SLR as a stopgap measure to replace the unreliable early-make L85s. Another possibility is that the UK began remanufacture of the Armalite AR-18 which had been liscence-built by Sterling in the UK during the late '70s in order to issue a stopgap weapon using the NATO 5.56mm round.

IMTW*, the UK armed forces use a mix of all three, with the SLR being the most common c. 2000. This would likely mean the Sterling SMG would be more common in the Twilight timeline than it was in the late '90s IRL.

On a related aside, I also like the idea of the reissue of Bren L4s LSWs to UK units (alongside a few L86s and FN Minimi SAWs).

USSR: AKM, AK-74, AK-103, "AKMR", and/or AN-94

Obviously, the AK-74 is still the standard Russian Federation army assault rifle and would have been during the Twilight War. Deep reserve units would likely still be armed with older, 7.62mm S AKMs. I'm really on the fence regarding the idea of the rechambered (for 5.45mm b) AKMR from canon. It seems like way too much trouble compared to continued manufacture of 7.62mm S ammunition, especially since Kalashnikov began manufactured what amounts to a modernized AKM in the form of the 7.62mm S AK-103, which is apparently standard issue with Russian SF. Manufacture of the AK-103 began, IRL, in the mid-90s so it could appear in the Twilight World in limited numbers.

Then there's the innovative but delicate AN-94, which the Russians have issued in very small numbers IRL. It too could have made it into the Twilight War, albeit in very small numbers.

IMTW, first and second-line Soviet units use the AK-74 series, deep reserve units use mostly AKMs and a few new issue AK-103s, and Soviet special forces use a mix of all three with the odd AN-94 mixed in.

Reunited Germany: G-11, G-36, G-3, G-41, and/or AKM

This is a tricky one. IRL, the G-11 never went into production but canon says it did in the Twilight timeline. Canon also states that caseless ammo production for it was impeded by the exchange and that it gradually fell out of use.

Then there's the G-36 which began to enter German Army service in the late '90s, IRL. It isn't mentioned at all in canon but it very well could have been introduced in time for the Twilight War. In all likelihood, though, not enough G-36s could have been manufactured before the general exchange to equip the newly reunited German Army.

So, whether it was the G-11 and/or the G-36 issued to the W. German Army in the Twilight timeline's mid-to-late '90s, something else would have needed to equip the balance of the German Army. The G-3 is the obvious choice since a good number were still in service, IRL, in the late '90s and early 2000s. But the 5.56mm G-41 would also be a natural option, given NATO's transition to that standard AR round.

Then there's the matter of the former East German Army units. I think it's most likely that they keep their AKMs and slowly transition to whatever the West German's standard AR would be. Of course, that transition would be interrupted by the exchange so AKMs would continue to remain in German Army service well past 2000.

IMTW, most the W. German army formations use the G-3 or G-41 while former E. German formations use the AKM with G-3s and G-41s in some former GDR units. I also allow for a few G-36s too.

Also, IMTW, the Uzi is still commonplace in German service.

USA: M-240 and/or M-60

This is probably a non-issue. Both GPMGs would likely be in service in the Twilight War. The proportion of one to the other is probably moot. The M240 would probably be most common in first-line units with the M60 more common in reserve and NG units.

With the M-16 series remaining the standard AR of the US armed forces to this day, there's no question here.

I also like the idea of M-79 "Blooper" GLs being reissued to American units, especially in CONUS.


Other Weapons that could have become mainstays in the Twilight War:

The Brunswick RAW

I've seen this in various late-'80s, early '90s books on US infantry weapons but it never really caught on, IRL. IMHO, it would be an ideal weapon for urban warfare. In densely populated central Europe, its combination of low-recoil, no backblast, HESH warhead, and low cost relative to the standard issue LAWs (M136, M72, and SMAW) would make it a good option for soldiers in urban combat. I can see it rushed into production and widely issued to American troops with quite a few still around by 2000.

(Paul M., I couldn't find this one on your site. I'm sure it's there, though.)

There are a couple of other ones I wanted to mentioned but I can't remember which. I'll post an adendum when I do.

*IMTW= In My Twilight World

[Targan]

There is scope for nearly infinite variety of opinion on this topic but realistically can be broken down into two main ways of looking at the issue:
1: Entirely factual, where you simply find the real life information on when a given weapon system was fielded and apply that to the T2K timeline or
2: Assume that the differences between the IRL and T2K timelines resulted in various weapon systems being developed and/or fielded earlier, later or not at all compared to RL.

In nearly all cases IMTW I take the latter view, and more specifically that because the Cold War never really ended in the T2K timeline the development and fielding of many weapon systems was accelerated. I think an acceleration of three to five years is not unreasonable in most cases but there are many exceptions. For instance, the development of some weapon systems may have been directly or indirectly influenced by advances in materials technology and those advances may not have been influenced by whether or not the Cold War continued (such as some developments made in the civilian sector that were not initially military in nature). The time scale for the application of such developments in the area of weapons tech would therefore be similar in both the RL and T2K timelines (although the fielding of the resulting weapons systems could be accelerated or decelerated in T2K once they had been developed).

The above probably isn't very easy to read but I think you all will get an idea of what I'm trying to say.

Relating this to Raellus' opening post with the UK as an example I think that the L85, L85A1/SA80, SLR, and Armalite AR-18 could all be used by British forces during the Twilight War, but the L85A1 might have been seen in only limited numbers because if you apply my suggestion of an acceleration of three to five years to Raellus' statement that "the improved L85A1 version only entered widespread service right around 2000", it would only have entered widespread service in the T2K timeline somewhere between 1995 and 1997.

[Raellus]

Good analysis, Targan.

I tend to combine the two viewpoints, using RL as a frame of reference but assuming significant changes due to the historical divergence necessitated by the Twilight timeline.

To bolster your point, Targan, the accepted explanation for W. Germany's cancellation of the adoption of the G11 was the financial strain brought about by reunification, E. Germany largely being economic dead weight. However, since reunification didn't occur until '96 in the v1.0 Twilight 2000 timeline, West Germany would have had around 5 years or so to manufacture G11s before the complications of reunification by force.

[pmulcahy11b]

The Brunswick RAW

It's in US Rifle Grenades, but simply labeled "RAW 140mm."

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I think the accepted reason for the non-adoption of the G11 was not that it was economic dead weight but that the West German security situation no longer required the weapon (i.e. the end of the Cold War meant that replacing the G3 didn't warrant as high a priority) and the money would/could then be used to help finance the unification of the two Germanys.

Given that the G11 was accepted as the next infantry rifle for West German forces, it is highly likely that the G36 was never even considered for study let alone developed. Everything would have been focused on production of the G11 for frontline troops and the G41 for support/rear-area troops. In those circumstances the G36 is unlikely to even exist in any of the T2k timelines.

Another possible contender in the Soviet Army would be the AEK-971 rifle, another contender for the AK-74 replacement http://world.guns.ru/assault/as34-e.htm

Other Soviet weapons you'd could possible find are
ASM-DT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASM-DT_..._Assault_Rifle
AS 'Val' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AS_Val
SR-3 'Vikhr' http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SR-3_Vikhr
9A-91 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9A-91
VSK-94 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSK-94

And some other possibilities, this time from Sweden
FM 1957 and
GRAM 63
both can be seen here http://www.gotavapen.se/gota/ak/ak4_5/ak5_history.htm
and from the USA
TRW Low Maintenance Rifle http://world.guns.ru/assault/as78-e.htm

[Legbreaker]

I tend to agree with almost all the comments above, but the G-11 is definately one of those "what if" items.
In a 1.0 timeline, it's almost certain to have seen widespread issue and the G36, etc is likely to not have made it past prototyping.
2.0/2.2 on the other hand is going to be nearly the opposite - a hundred or so G-11s produced for testing and probably only in the hands of SF types, while the G36 was pumped out by the thousand due to it's more contemporary and "socially acceptable" mechanism and chambering.

An advance of three to five years seems a little excessive though. I'd be inclined to say more like one to three (at most) as it takes time for economies to switch over to wartime production and R&D, and then in 1997 we have what is effectively a brick wall for development.

To my mind, whatever technology exists around September to Novemeber 1997, is all there is. From there it's virtually all downhill.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I tend to think that 3 to 5 years is a conservative figure for advancing the research, typically the only things that would retard the R&D would be lack of finances and/or lack of national desire.
To illustrate my meaning, I watched a science show some years ago and they were discussing cybernetic implants for eyes that would allow partially blind people to see better and even allow those who were blind to gain some sight. The chief researcher said that under current conditions it would take about 10-15 years to reach that goal but with more funding it could be as little as half that time.

If the leadership of a country wants something badly enough, they'll make the funding available and again the G11 is a good example of that. Originally developed if I remember right, as a contender for the West German version of the 'Salvo' Project that the USA was conducting, the tech of the G11 soon surpassed the then current firearms technology and it's still considered advanced compared to today. The West German government pumped a lot of money into it and Heckler & Koch put some of their own money into the project from what I understand of it.

Personally I can't see the G36 being developed even in the 2.2 timeline because, in the real world, its precursor rifle began development in the early 1990s with the G36 available for service in 1997 whereas in the Twilight 2.2 world, in 1993 there is warfare in the Soviet republics and by 1994 Europe is showing increasing signs of instability. It's at this point that Germany begins building up it's forces and by 1995, to quote the 2.2 book, page 9 ...Germany declares its agreement on size and location of armed forces 'obsolete in relation to the current European situation." They are gearing up for a war that they enter in 1996.

Under those circumstances I could see Germany increasing the production of G41 rifles and/or the less expensive HK33 rifle (and it's HK53 carbine, HK13 & HK23 LMG variants) as well as perhaps issuing the East German AK variants.
But I can't imagine they would start up the research and development of a completely new weapon given that they are in the process of building up for a regional conflict. They couldn't possibly hope to supply enough of them to their forces even if they did get it to the production stage. I don't disagree that there would be relatively small numbers of the G11 available but I really can't see the G36 being produced at all.

[Fusilier]

The chief researcher said that under current conditions it would take about 10-15 years to reach that goal but with more funding it could be as little as half that time.

Heh. Of course he'd say that.

[Raellus]

It's in US Rifle Grenades, but simply labeled "RAW 140mm."

I knew you wouldn't have missed it!

[Raellus]

I think 3-5 years is reasonable. The Cold War was a huge incentive/motivator for government funding of the military as well as arms R&D. A lot of programs would have been pushed ahead had it not been for the unanticipated peaceful end of the Cold War.

SSC, I didn't mean that the G-11 was dead weight but that the East German economy was. The financial strain of having to incorporate what was, in effect, a ruined economy meant that less money was available to fund projects like the adoption of the G-11. Only after the German economy stabilized in the mid-90s (IRL) did Germany adopt a new AR (the G-36). The need for a new AR never went away. In fact, the German army had to find a replacement for both the G-3 and the AKM.

Your point about the v1.0 timeline is well taken, though. Due to the adoption of the G-11, it is unlikely that the G-36 would even have been developed, let alone adopted and produced in any numbers.

BTW, thanks for the other weapons links.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Heh. Of course he'd say that.

Well how else could he pay for his new Porsche and the golf club membership

P.S. Meant to add the following, Raellus, I chose those links mostly for the Soviet weapons because some of them had the in service dates listed but for a fuller write-up and more pictures the site I got the TRW rifle from is far better http://world.guns.ru/main-e.htm

[pmulcahy11b]

Well how else could he pay for his new Porsche and the golf club membership

P.S. Meant to add the following, Raellus, I chose those links mostly for the Soviet weapons because some of them had the in service dates listed but for a fuller write-up and more pictures the site I got the TRW rifle from is far better http://world.guns.ru/main-e.htm

As an aside, I'm very skeptical of anything called a "Low-Maintenance Rifle" -- they said the same thing about the M-16 when it arrived in Vietnam.

[Legbreaker]

While wartime R&D is likely to speed up, it has to be remembered that most countries entered the conflict(s) essentially unprepared. Given that by late 1997 all forward progress had effectively ceased due to the nukes, it's therefore hard to justify more than 12-18 months of development.
Regardless how much money is thrown at it, I just can't see 3-5 years compressed into such a short period of time.

Something else worth looking at is the situation with the US (and others) in Iraq. Even several years on, they're still having trouble supplying the troops with everything they need although I'm sure it's a bit different now than it was several years ago. And that's a comparatively minor engagement when you look at T2K and it's multiple, large scale operational theatres.

[pmulcahy11b]

Here's a possibility: Local progress. Except for the November Nuclear Strikes, the nukes and chemical warfare came in dribs and drabs. Some places that already have a decent technological base, but are otherwise intact (even if for only a while) might develop stuff that saw only local use or small-scale production and issue to overseas troops or nationwide. Offhand, I can only think of a few spots, mostly in the US, but:

Groom Lake (the so-called "Area 51"), Edwards AFB (probably would have been hit early, but it's a huge base), various places in Silicon Valley, and Crane Weapons Center. If you go by some Challenge magazine articles, the Lima, Ohio M-1 Abrams plant is relatively undamaged. Maybe throw in some deep-secret, underground development labs (could go for lots of countries), isolated gunsmiths, and prototypes that some government facility took to fruition, but couldn't make many of. Old experimental projects could also have been dusted off, maybe updated a bit, and put into production early in the war. Wartime expedients would also have happened; I once played a character in a late-war draft that was told to show up with his own weapons, ammunition, and equipment if possible (luckily, he was an outdoor enthusiast and a gun collector).

[Rainbow Six]

UK: L85, L85A1/SA80, SLR, and/or Armalite AR-18

IRL, the early production version of the SA80 (aka the L85) had a dreadful reputation and the improved L85A1 version only entered widespread service right around 2000. In the Twilight world, this may not have occured. Instead, the UK may have reissued the venerable 7.62mm SLR as a stopgap measure to replace the unreliable early-make L85s. Another possibility is that the UK began remanufacture of the Armalite AR-18 which had been liscence-built by Sterling in the UK during the late '70s in order to issue a stopgap weapon using the NATO 5.56mm round.

IMTW*, the UK armed forces use a mix of all three, with the SLR being the most common c. 2000. This would likely mean the Sterling SMG would be more common in the Twilight timeline than it was in the late '90s IRL.

On a related aside, I also like the idea of the reissue of Bren L4s LSWs to UK units (alongside a few L86s and FN Minimi SAWs).

I can't recall where I read it, but I did see an article a few months ago that suggested that the UK still had a stockpile of SLR's which ran into the tens of thousands, so I think it's highly likely that the SLR would be the most commonly found weapon amongst British forces either though neccessity or choice. I also like the idea of reissuing Brens, and would probably add to that the possibility of very occasionally encountering militia and Home Service Force units in the UK armed with .303 Lee Enfields. There's also likely to be a number of MP5's in circulation as that was the standard issue long arm of most British police forces (at least on the mainland).

One minor thing - whilst I agree with most of what you've said here (including the reissue of the Bren gun), IRL Sterling Armaments went bust in the late 80's, so wouldn't be in any position to start remanufacturing the AR18.

(Of course, that doesn't mean that they have to go bust in a T2K World...)

On a side note, finding ways for marauder groups in the UK to be armed is a source of constant headaches for me...there are only so many dodgy French weapons dealers or abandoned HSF caches...I do sometimes envy those whose work is set in the US where it seems (to me at least) that both lawful and unlawful groups have relatively easy access to large amounts of weapons.

Interesting views on the G11 / G36 debate also. I've always been a fan of the G36, but as I use a Version 1 timeline following the logic here I think I may have to dump it in favour of the G11.