Japan in Twilight 2000

[fightingflamingo]

I for one would love to see translations of the Finnish sourcebooks, in any capacity...

[headquarters]

me too

I for one would love to see translations of the Finnish sourcebooks, in any capacity...

wouldlove any of the "lost Finnish texts "

[kato13]

I own a copy of the Finnish Sourcebook, it's in Finnish but it's ok for me because I'm bilingual in Finnish and English and can translate the text, like I did with the bit about Japan. If people like, I can post translated segments of the book. It's just that I'm not sure how the copyright laws work, and am afraid that I might be breaking some laws if I posted them here.

John it all up to you on what you choose to do. Trooper, our other Finnish member, recently posted the Finnish Nuclear addendum for Europe and I found it very helpful for my European strike map.

IMO
Summaries are fine. Those might lead question and answer threads if you are up to that.

Snippets are of course ok under fair use laws. I would think up to a page or so.

Anything beyond that would probably be best not discussed in a public forum.

[John Farson]

John it all up to you on what you choose to do. Trooper, our other Finnish member, recently posted the Finnish Nuclear addendum for Europe and I found it very helpful for my European strike map.

IMO
Summaries are fine. Those might lead question and answer threads if you are up to that.

Snippets are of course ok under fair use laws. I would think up to a page or so.

Anything beyond that would probably be best not discussed in a public forum.

I also have the Finnish Nordic countries sourcebook, so I can also post snippets of that here, if people want (though I presume Trooper has already posted the central things of those).

OK, I'll see what I can post. I was thinking of first posting a summary of the Finnish writers' intro where they explain what differences there are to the previous edition and how it differs from the American version. It's not something little either, for the Finnish book has Russia led by Vladimir Zhirinovski go to war against China in Jan. 1996! Though China actually fires the first shot after a crapload of provocations, but the enemy is Russia, not the USSR. The POD is after the anti-Yeltsin coup attempt of Oct. 3rd 1993, wherein Yeltsin is forced to rely on the army more. China becomes more unstable, too.

I was also thinking of posting translated snippets about the situation in various parts of the world in case it differs from the US version (I've never owned the US version, so I don't know).

Of course the book also contains technical details like character creation, game master, time & travel, battle rules and meeting rules, but those might be redundant. Not to mention that posting all of those would consume a hell of a lot of time and, IMHO, would come dangerously close to breaking those laws!

How does this sound (of course I'd be posting them in their own threads)

[kato13]

Trooper only posted the Nuclear list so anything you post will be helpful. I know that whatever work you do will be appreciated by many people here. Much thanks in advance from all of us.

[John Farson]

Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral

Oh, and Webstral, about the US retaliation for Japan, I think that retaliation might be directed towards Vietnam, especially if the OTL normalisation of relations of 1995 is butterflied away. I don't know what sort of nuclear targets the US had in Vietnam after 1975, but I think if World War III came to pass, that country wouldn't have been spared. The Chinese alone would have lobbed a few nukes at it, I think. After all, it was a Soviet rather than a Chinese ally, and it was militarily the most powerful country in mainland SE-Asia. I presume also, though it'd never be admitted in public, that there might also be an element of revenge for the Vietnam War. With the US facing imminent nuclear destruction, the powers-that-be might decide that "if we're going down, we're certainly not gonna let those damned Vietnamese get away with it!"

[John Farson]

Trooper only posted the Nuclear list so anything you post will be helpful. I know that whatever work you do will be appreciated by many people here. Much thanks in advance from all of us.

Thanks. I'll see what I can do.

[Webstral]

With the US facing imminent nuclear destruction, the powers-that-be might decide that "if we're going down, we're certainly not gonna let those damned Vietnamese get away with it!"

Heck yeah, there would be some payback!

Webstral

[kato13]

Perhaps it would be permissable for me to post here the PC briefing at the beginning of the module The module also has details about nuke strikes on the steelmaking facilities in and around the Japanese city of Kitakyushu.

Actually the adventure was posted at rpghost and I was able to pull it as part of my archive file (2.15 MB).

Japan in the Twilight War and After

[Legbreaker]

My name is Colonel Sanderson

Why did I suddenly think of an old guy with a white beard munching on fried chicken

[Canadian Army]

Here are some of points to keep in mind when designing a Japanese campaign

1) In theory, Japan's rearmament is thoroughly prohibited by Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which not only states, "The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes", but also declares, "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained." In practice, however, the Diet (or Parliament), which Article 41 of the Constitution defines as "the highest organ of the state power", established the Self-Defense Forces in 1954.

2) Due to such a constitutional tension concerning the Forces' status, any attempt at enhancing the Forces' capabilities and budget tends to be politically controversial. Thus the JSDF has very limited capabilities to operate overseas, lacks long range offensive capabilities such as long-range surface-to-surface missiles, aerial refueling, marines, amphibious units, or large caches of ammunitions.

3) The Rules of Engagement are strictly defined by the Self-Defence Forces Act 1954.

4) The total strength of the three branches of the SDF was 246,400 in 1992. In addition, the SDF maintained a total of 48,400 reservists attached to the three services. Even when Japan's active and reserve components are combined, however, the country maintains a lower ratio of military personnel to its population than does any member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Of the major Asian nations, only India and Indonesia keep a lower ratio of personnel in arms.

5) The SDF is an all-volunteer force, however in the face of some continued post-World War II public apathy or antipathy toward the armed services, the SDF has difficulties in recruiting personnel. The SDF has to compete for qualified personnel with well-paying industries, and most enlistees are "persuaded" volunteers who sign up after solicitation from recruiters. Predominantly rural prefectures supply military enlistees far beyond the proportions of their populations. In areas such as southern Kyūshū and Hokkaidō, where employment opportunities are limited, recruiters are welcomed and supported by the citizens. In contrast, little success or cooperation is encountered in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka.

6) Conscription per se is not forbidden by law, but many citizens consider Article 18 of the constitution, which prohibits involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime, as a legal prohibition of any form of conscription. Even in the absence of so strict an interpretation, however, a military draft appears politically impossible.

7) All SDF personnel are technically civilians: those in uniform are classified as special civil servants and are subordinate to the ordinary civil servants who run the Ministry of Defense. There are no military secrets, military laws, or offenses committed by military personnel; whether on-base or off-base, on-duty or off-duty, of a military or non-military nature, are all adjudicated under normal procedures by civil courts in appropriate jurisdictions.

8) Because the forces are all volunteer and legally civilian, members can resign at any time, and retention is a problem. Many enlistees are lured away by the prospects of highly paying civilian jobs, and Defense Agency officials complain of private industries looting their personnel.

[Webstral]

Here are some of points to keep in mind when designing a Japanese campaign

1) In theory, Japan's rearmament is thoroughly prohibited by Article 9 of the Japanese constitution which not only states, "The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes", but also declares, "land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained." In practice, however, the Diet (or Parliament), which Article 41 of the Constitution defines as "the highest organ of the state power", established the Self-Defense Forces in 1954.

2) Due to such a constitutional tension concerning the Forces' status, any attempt at enhancing the Forces' capabilities and budget tends to be politically controversial. Thus the JSDF has very limited capabilities to operate overseas, lacks long range offensive capabilities such as long-range surface-to-surface missiles, aerial refueling, marines, amphibious units, or large caches of ammunitions.

3) The Rules of Engagement are strictly defined by the Self-Defence Forces Act 1954.

4) The total strength of the three branches of the SDF was 246,400 in 1992. In addition, the SDF maintained a total of 48,400 reservists attached to the three services. Even when Japan's active and reserve components are combined, however, the country maintains a lower ratio of military personnel to its population than does any member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Of the major Asian nations, only India and Indonesia keep a lower ratio of personnel in arms.

5) The SDF is an all-volunteer force, however in the face of some continued post-World War II public apathy or antipathy toward the armed services, the SDF has difficulties in recruiting personnel. The SDF has to compete for qualified personnel with well-paying industries, and most enlistees are "persuaded" volunteers who sign up after solicitation from recruiters. Predominantly rural prefectures supply military enlistees far beyond the proportions of their populations. In areas such as southern Kyūshū and Hokkaidō, where employment opportunities are limited, recruiters are welcomed and supported by the citizens. In contrast, little success or cooperation is encountered in urban centers such as Tokyo and Osaka.

6) Conscription per se is not forbidden by law, but many citizens consider Article 18 of the constitution, which prohibits involuntary servitude except as punishment for a crime, as a legal prohibition of any form of conscription. Even in the absence of so strict an interpretation, however, a military draft appears politically impossible.

7) All SDF personnel are technically civilians: those in uniform are classified as special civil servants and are subordinate to the ordinary civil servants who run the Ministry of Defense. There are no military secrets, military laws, or offenses committed by military personnel; whether on-base or off-base, on-duty or off-duty, of a military or non-military nature, are all adjudicated under normal procedures by civil courts in appropriate jurisdictions.

8) Because the forces are all volunteer and legally civilian, members can resign at any time, and retention is a problem. Many enlistees are lured away by the prospects of highly paying civilian jobs, and Defense Agency officials complain of private industries looting their personnel.

This is very good information. Thanks for getting this out.

Webstral

[RN7]

Its true that Japan post-1945 has been a peaceful nation. However despite its constitution many factors would make it a prime target for a Soviet nuclear and conventional attack.

Firstly Japan is a military ally of the United States, in fact its military relationship with America could be said to be on a par with Britain if you exclude nuclear technology. Japanese defense policy has been based on maintaining the 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security with the United States, under which Japan assumed responsibility for its own internal security and the United States agreed to join in Japan's defense in the event that Japan or its territories were attacked.

Secondly Japan has a large and sophisticated defence industry. Japan builds most of its own vehicles, aircraft and ships, and they are to large degree Japanese designed. Of the defence equipment it does import, America is by far the biggest source. Japan has the industrial base to license build any imported weapon from the F-15 to artillery guns, and in fact the current Japanese F-2 fighter is basically a heavily upgraded F-16C.

Thirdly Japan is a major industrial power and by far the most technologically advanced country in Asia. At the time of the Twilight War Japan was second only to the United States and Soviet Union in manufacturing and industrial production across a whole range of industries, and was a world leader in automobiles, metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and electronics. It also had the largest ship building industry in the world and a highly capable aerospace sector. It was also second only to the United States and the Soviet Union in electricity production, and its nuclear power industry was as big as the Soviet Union in output.

Fourthly Japan's is a major military power in its own right. It has one of the largest and best equipped navies in Asia, and its air force is the best air defence force in Asia, although for political reasons its lags in attack capabilities. The Japanese Ground Self Defence Force had 13 Divisions (1 Armoured, 12 Infantry) and 4 Independent Brigades (1 Airborne, 1 Artillery, 2 Mixed), and was at least as well equipped as any Asian rival.

Fifthly it is no secret that Japan has the capability to build nuclear weapons if it wanted. Japan started looking into nuclear weapons development following China's successfull atom-bomb test in 1964, and one of the main reasons why China's nuclear arsenal hasn't expanded much over the past few decades is probably due to fear of provoking a regional nuclear arms race with Japan, and also why there is a lot of fuss in Asia about North Korean missile tests and nuclear development. Japan also has its own successfull space program which uses Japanese designed rockets to launch satellites into orbit. The M-3S-II which was first launched in 1985 is considered to be capable of a surface-to-surface range of 4,000 km with a 500 kg payload. The newer M-V rocket which started devlopment in 1989 and was first launched in 1997 is more than twice the weight of the M-3S-II. It is capable of placing an 1,800 kg cargo into low earth orbit or injecting a 300-400-kg payload into space for planetary surveys, and is considered capable of intercontinental ranges if converted into a ballistic missile. Both the M-3S-II and M-V have been compared with American ICBMs, and if converted to ballistic missiles the M-V would likely give Japan an ICBM roughly equivalent to the MX Peacekeeper, although it would be not easy for Japan to convert to military applications for anumber of reasons.

Finally by looking at the deployments of US forces in Japan it is easy to see why Japan would be targeted by Soviet nuclear forces.

Current and recent US military forces in Japan

US Army Japan/I Corp (Forward) (Camp Zama, Kanagawa Prefecture)
1st Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group (Okinawa)
1st Battalion, 1st Air Defence Artillery Regiment (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
78th Aviation Battalion
35th Combat Support Battalion
88th Military Police Detachment
441st Military Intelligence Battalion
83rd Ordinance Battalion (Kure, with detachments at Hiro, Kawakami, Chibana)
9th Mission Support Command (Camp Zama, Kanagawa Prefecture)
78th Signal Battalion
836th Transportation Battalion (Yokohama)
10th Area Support Group (Torri Station, Okinawa)
2nd Joint Special Operations Aviation Component
58th Signal Battalion (Fort Buckner, Okinawa)
505th Quartermaster Battalion
835th Transportation Battalion (Naha Point, Okinawa)

* Recent Army deployments to Japan

300th Area Support Group
429th Quartermaster Battalion


US Air Force
Fifth Air Force (Yokota AB, Tokyo)
18th Wing (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
18th Operations Support Squadron
44th Fighter Squadron (F-15C/D)
67th Fighter Squadron (F-15C/D)
909th Air Refueling Squadron (KC-135R)
961st Airborne Air Control Squadron (E-3B/C)
33d Rescue Squadron (HH-60G)
35th Fighter Wing (Misawa AB, Aomori Prefecture)
35th Operations Support Squadron
13th Fighter Squadron (F-16CJ/DJ)
14th Fighter Squadron (F-16CJ/DJ)
610th Air Control Flight
374th Airlift Wing (Yokota AB, Tokyo)
374th Operations Support Squadron
36th Airlift Squadron (C-130H)
459th Airlift Squadron (UH-1N, C-12)
Detachment, 94th Fighter Squadron (Kadena AB, Okinawa) (F-22)

* Recent Air Force deployments to Japan

12th Fighter Squadron (Kadena AB, Okinawa) (F-15C/D)


US Marines
III Marine Expeditionary Force (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
31st Marine Expeditionary Unit
3rd Marine Expeditionary Brigade
3rd Marine Division (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
3rd Marine Regiment
4th Marine Regiment
12th Marine Regiment (Camp Hansen, Okinawa)
3rd Marine Logistics Group (Camp Courtney, Okinawa)
1st Marine Air Wing (Kadena AB, Okinawa)
Marine Air Group 12 (Iwakuni, Yamaguchi Prefecture) (F-18)
Marine Air Group 36 (Futenma, Okinawa) (CH-46, CH-53, KC-130R)
Marine Air Control Group 18 (Futenma, Okinawa)

US Navy
7th Fleet (Yokosuka)
Submarine Group 7 (Yokosuka)
Expeditionary Strike group 7 (Okinawa)
Amphibious Squadron 11 (Sasebo)
Mine Countermeasure Division 11 (Sasebo)
HSL-14 (NAS Atsugi) (SH-60)
CVN 63 George Washington
Carrier Air Wing 5
George Washington Strike Group

* Recent Navy deployments to Japan

CV 63 Kitty Hawk
CV 41 Midway

[Legbreaker]

I think you're missing some important points there RN7...

Japan is resource poor. It imports virtually all raw materials so that it can produce the high tech equipment it does. Once the war turns nuclear, perhaps even before, the flow of raw materials will be disrupted.

It's worth looking at CA's post above for reasons why Japan cannot be a significant threat to it's neighbours. Given a decade or so and a radical shift in public opinion, this may change, but it's not likely.

Yes Japan probably can produce nukes. Yes, it has the capability of delivering a few of them, but it doesn't have the ability to deliver more than one or two at a time as it's space facilities aren't set up for it (they are after all primarily civilian in nature and design). It wouldn't take more than a few cruise missiles or decent airstrike to effectively destroy that capability.

And finally, the list of units you've posted is PRE war. Very few of the ground units, and virtually none of the naval units will be there circa 1997-98 when the nukes are fired. There is a possibility that the air units will be present, at least the rear area services, but there's also a strong posibility that many of these will have been shifted to other theatres.

I believe Japan is still nukeworthy, however less than one may immediately think. Major industrial centres are likely to take the brunt of the attack and possibly military targets also if there is strong intel significant forces remain in barracks. The cities themselves are unlikely to have been targeted directly, however as industry relies on population, the destruction of the cities is still almost certain.

[RN7]

I think you're missing some important points there RN7...

Japan is resource poor. It imports virtually all raw materials so that it can produce the high tech equipment it does. Once the war turns nuclear, perhaps even before, the flow of raw materials will be disrupted.

Much of Europe is also resource poor, including France. In fact Japan's lack of resources such as oil, and small coal and metal reserves is very similar to France. Both countries also have nuclear power industries second only to America.

It's worth looking at CA's post above for reasons why Japan cannot be a significant threat to it's neighbours. Given a decade or so and a radical shift in public opinion, this may change, but it's not likely.

Do you realy think that Japan's self expressed pacifism or apathy towards the military is going to stop the Soviets launching nuclear missiles at them during an all out war with America and NATO

Yes Japan probably can produce nukes. Yes, it has the capability of delivering a few of them, but it doesn't have the ability to deliver more than one or two at a time as it's space facilities aren't set up for it (they are after all primarily civilian in nature and design).

Yes it does have the ability to build nuclear weapons (mainly low yield plutonium derived ones), and no it doesn't have the capability to deliver nuclear weapons, but if it felt its national security was in danger by an Asian rival such as China or North Korea it could instigate a programme of upgrading its current rocket technology to military application.

It wouldn't take more than a few cruise missiles or decent airstrike to effectively destroy that capability.

Well if the Soviets respected Japanese neutrality why would they be using cruise missiles or airstrikes against Japan. And if you take out the space facilities your probably going to have to go after the nuclear programme as well and Japan's nuclear power stations.

And finally, the list of units you've posted is PRE war. Very few of the ground units, and virtually none of the naval units will be there circa 1997-98 when the nukes are fired. There is a possibility that the air units will be present, at least the rear area services, but there's also a strong posibility that many of these will have been shifted to other theatres.

Actually the list is 2009, but they were in Japan during the 90's. And yes some of the air, marine and naval units would have gone to Korea and the Middle East, but the logistical importance of US bases would remain for all US forces in the Pacific region. However many forces, particularly units designated to the air defence of Japan are there specifically to defend Japan at the request of the Japanese government.

I believe Japan is still nukeworthy, however less than one may immediately think. Major industrial centres are likely to take the brunt of the attack and possibly military targets also if there is strong intel significant forces remain in barracks. The cities themselves are unlikely to have been targeted directly, however as industry relies on population, the destruction of the cities is still almost certain.

Well I don't understand your logic. On one hand your saying the Japanese constitution and general Japanese pacifism and apathy towards the military would deter a Soviet attack, yet on the other hand your saying that Japanese industrial centres, military targets and cities would still be attacked.