Where would of the Soviet Offensive would have hit...

[Abbott Shaull]

Okay here something I have wonder. Where would the Soviet and Pact Forces had hit in 2000 if it wasn't for the US XI Corps and Third German Army limited offensive that led to the destruction of the 5th US Division.

They had plenty on their plate. From attacking the NATO in the South, to pacifying some Poles, Czech, and I am sure others that weren't playing by the Soviet rules at this time.

They had 4th Guard Tank Army with all that stock of fuel. The 22nd Cavalry Army which probably would of been used in supporting attack along the northern flank if they did pushed into southern Germany. Even the 10th Guard Tank Division of the 3rd Shock Army which after having been stripped to re-equip and re-inforce other units had gotten a real lousy replacement of 3000 troops that they couldn't speak too with several very burned out T-55.

Take in the fact that it seems the 3rd Shock Army had been guarding large supply depots....

Could the Soviets moved said units without NATO realizing it until they got blindsided. Much like the 5th Mechanized Division was when the 4th Guard Tank Army hit them in force.

Abbott.

[Raellus]

Based on the units I've plotted on my summer 2000 map, the Soviets have an overwhelming manpower and AFV advantage on the Berlin-Cottbus axis. There are only a couple of British divisions in their way, and most of them are situated well behind the front lines (west of Berlin).

http://maps.google.com/maps/msie=UTF8&hl=en&t=h&msa=0&msid=117166206019146659427.00047b0881d4ef792073e&ll=52.281602,15.161133&spn=3.239921,9.854736&z=7

Also, the Soviets have an army in western Byelorussia (the 9th Guards Tank Army) with 9000 men and 48 tanks which could be used to support offensive operations in Poland. This leaves the 1st Byelorussian Army HQ (86th AAB & 7th Guards Tank Army w/ 5900 men and 2 tanks) to perform internal security duties in Byelorussia and deal with the mutinous 3rd GTD.

[Abbott Shaull]

Yes, but Berlin by this time is much like Warsaw. In Ruins, not much to gain there. So what would they be planning....

[Adm.Lee]

Since the American forces in Germany are arguably the most "fragile" (no replacement troops or equipment easily available), I would think they might want to hit them first.

Or, maybe one could hit the British hard enough that whatever British government remains would call them home

Either way, the strategic goal would be to weaken NATO as much as possible with this asset. If NATO is weakened enough, maybe some kind of cease-fire can be arranged on terms advantageous to the Pact.

IMO, the best deal for the USSR would be to quit fighting on the terms they had-- the Germans are on their side of the Oder, and are in no shape to drive across Poland for a generation or so.

[Webstral]

Without addressing the likelihood of such a plan, I propose that the Soviets might have been planning to keep 4th Guards Tank Army as a strategic reserve. They were having more and more trouble with units not following orders, etc. Perhaps 4th Guards Tank Army was intended to act as a fire brigade, moving from place to place to knock down local warlords, marauders, rebels, and anyone generally not on board with Stavka's thinking. The Soviets have long been obsessed with internal security. The internal security situation was breaking down badly after 1998. The creation of a strong, mobile reserve in Belarus would have enabled the Soviets to move quickly and decisively against any of the numerous internal threats in Poland, Belarus, the western Ukraine, Lithuania, western Russia, or Slovakia, as well as parrying any moves by NATO.

Webstral

[Cdnwolf]

In Mediterranean Cruise we have the source of the fuel used by the 4'th Tank Army...

With the strategic exchanges of late 1997, the Ploesti oil fields
of Romania were the subject of some nuclear strikes, but for
reasons not completely understood, the refineries and oil production
facilities were not completely destroyed and were beginning
to become operational again by mid-2000. By the fall, these
fields had produced enough petroleum to fuel a last Soviet
counteroffensive in Europe (the one referred to in the basic game
which destroyed the U.S. 5th Mechanized Infantry Division),
which brought the active phase of the war to a messy
conclusion.

ALSO NOTE:

The only major Soviet force remaining in Europe after December
of 2000 was the Danube Front of the Southwestern TVD
(Teatr Voennikh Deystivy, Theater of Military Operations), consisting
of the 38th Army and the 3rd Guards Tank Army. Located
in the Bucharest-Ploesti area, these forces are currently making
use of one of the few refinery complexes in the world not
destroyed by the war to provide fuel. These two armies represent
the last viable tank forces in Europe.

[Abbott Shaull]

That is my thought as it wasn't suppose to attack NATO. I think it was more of unit that would be threaten of use if someone didn't follow orders.

It goes with Soviet tradition to have large mobile reserve behind the front for clean up. I am sure for couple years after WWII they spent several weeks mopping up the mess that they inherited after WWII.

The Northern Ukraine is about where you would want one decent size mobile Army that could be used to respond in Western Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and possibly toward Iran. At the time there were many threats to the Soviet Union and Stavka. With the number of the Divisional commanders realizing that any further offensive action weather it was in Europe or the Middle East wouldn't change much except maybe more lives of troops they needed. For reinforcements and resupply from Stavka were few and far in between. Remember the ones who opposing the NATO units probably didn't see neither since sometime in 1998 from the Soviet Union.

[Legbreaker]

I've been spending a LOT of time on exactly this question of late in preparation for writing up my take on the Soviet side of the Summer 2000 campaign.
It is my belief that the 4th Guards Tank Army was intended as a reserve unit for the offensive, and perhaps to exploit any breakthrough.

There was most certainly a Soviet offensive in 2000. The only definate reference to this however can be found on page 46 of the Survivors Guide to the United Kingdom in the 6th Airmobile Brigade unit history.

During the Soviet counteroffensive in 2000, the unit was flung into the attack and was one of the first NATO units to react. A heavy price was paid for this, and the unit was almost destroyed. After the battle the unit was pulled out of front line service for a refit. It remains in Hannover as part of the British Cantonment there.

This was written as of the 1st of January 2001. It is also interesting to note that the British consolidated their forces in the Hannover to Magdeburg area in early 2000, yet the map in the 2.0 yellow book (alleged to be 01JUL00) has one UK unit (the 5th Mechanised) on the other side of Berlin, over 100km north east of Berlin (Bernau) and 250-300km from it's listed position in both the Nato Vehicle Guide (01JUL00) and UK book (01JAN01) - Hildesheim.

What does this tell me Well, obviously we have two positions for one unit almost 300km apart on the same day - quite possibly a typo. Up until 01JUL00 the unit history also states this unit remained in the Hildesheim area since February 2000.

I would therefore say that given the information from the 6th Airmobile Brigade, and the two locations for the 5th Mechanised Division, the Soviet offensive occured, at a minimum, in the region to the north of Berlin, and was possibly intended to cut off the US XI Corp (an objective which as shown below was reached).

This is reinforced by the information presented in Going Home that the US XI Corp (less the 5th and 8th ID's obviously) are cut off from withdrawing to Bremerhaven as part of OMEGA.

Additionally, the Situation section of the Omega operations order shows us that:

Warsaw Pact forces (1st Western Front, 2nd Western Front, 1st Southwestern Front, and 2nd Southwestern Front) have established a static front line through central Germany along the line Zwickau-Dresden-Frankfurt-Szczecin.

Furthermore, examination of the Soviet unit locations between 01JUL00 and information provided in Going Home, show that Soviet units on the front line north of Cottbus have moved anything up to 140km eastward (the further north the starting point, the further the unit has moved.

This tells me that fighting was most likely fiercest in the north where UK 5th Mech is shown to be on the map.

What units are holding the line mentioned in the Operations Order is unknown - it appears to be clear ground all the way from Szczecin to the ruins of Gorzow Wielkop. My guess is it is still being heavily patrolled (or teeming with marauders) and the remnants of the US XI Corp simply doesn't have the strength, or more importantly, fuel and ammunition to move into this area. Chances are they'd have to travel almost to Berlin before they could find a bridge to cross the Oder.

Polish units on the whole remain in the same location in Going Home as shown at 01JUL00. Some limited movement has taken place in the southern most Polish units, but this is no more than 30km and appears mainly to represent a consolidation of force perhaps in the face of the US XI Corp to the north west.

[Abbott Shaull]

That what I mean seems like they lot of time and energy. That GDW apparently not keeping track on where they had placed units by various dates as far as some of the NATO units.

Like I state before a Soviet Division with 3000 - 8000 would mean that the division was at worse off third of the strength starting off, up to three-quarters of their strength at the upper end. Many of the ones I remember being at 4000-5000 range were effectively at half strength. Now contrast this against the US Divisions were if they were lucky enough to have 5000 troop they were still at third of their authorized strength if it was Mechanized/Armored and 3500 - 4000 for the Light Infantry and Infantry units.

As for looking at the AFVs they have listed, by 2000 on both side many kept tracks in front line even if they had parts of the equipment that needed to desperately repair. Such as tracks where the main gun was non operational, due to damage or lack of resupply of ammo. Even M2 or BMP could wreck havoc on locality if show up unexpectedly. The HMMWVs and similar vehicle at this time, which were never meant to be front line fighting vehicle were pressed more and more into those roles to make up differences.

Granted a T-72 that has only MG operational at this time would make a grand impression upon the opposing troops, especially those lacking any AT weapon to counter it.

What I have trouble with is by all writings by GDW. The Soviets power and control had faded and was fading away quickly in Eastern Europe by the end of 2000. Even reading the Middle East stuff in Iran it seemed that the chains of the centralized control from Moscow or where ever Stavka was located at were waning fast. Even the civilian side the Interior Minister and KGB units were same could be said to lesser degree. The writers more or less stated that Soviet war in Europe would be over by then end of 2000.

So was the 4th Guard Tank Army rush to stop the US XI Corps a knee jerk reaction I don't think this Tank Army was part of any planned offensive the Soviet had for against NATO. There were too many problem in the Ukraine that needed to be sorted with. Ukraine as well as the Transcaucasian Military Districts, were in stages of having open rebellion.

The 22nd Cavalry Army seem to be of more use where they were to. The Baltic were themselves in varying states of open rebellion and could of been used up to the north.

What the Soviets 1st Southwestern Front and 2nd Southwestern front as I remember seemed more than large enough to handle push into Germany by themselves without having to reinforcements sent from the Soviet Union itself. I think what was left of NATO (the Germans) had been quite impress with the speed that the Soviets were able to move the 22nd Cavalry Army and 4th Guards Tanks Army enough, that even if they had the means to continue the war, they would always have to wonder what rabbit was Stavka could pull out of the hat.

the 38th Army and the 3rd Guards Tank Army, located in the Bucharest-Ploesti area would have to stay put for the Soviets to have any chance of regaining control of the Ukraine and further into the Soviet Union.

It is one of the thing that GDW were to obsess with figuring out what happen to the US and the front lines in Europe. They seemed to ignore everything else, even the Middle East stuff they published was more or less influence by the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and efforts the Soviet previous operation against Iran in the past, which ironical also foreshadowed the future to a bit too.

From what I remember reading the GDW actually 'played' the game out, to get the story-line for the start. One of the things I found lacking was their Far East was rarely touched upon and the internal working of the Soviet wasn't touch at all. Same with Norway and Sweden they aren't reference much, and Spain and Portugal seem to be missing except for reference in certain modules. Same with most of Africa, South America, and South Pacific, many of these locals seem to be largely ignored which is sad since when they started out they had full head of steam that seemed to have lost track some where after they had published the first 5 module or so dealing with the destruction of the 5th Mechanized Division and the pulling out of US Forces from Europe. Then when they shifted to CONUS seems things seemed to have gotten lost. I don't know, I would of love to see a more diverse line up in the original product. Getting off my soap box of a rant.

[Raellus]

Nice work, Legbreaker. Based on all of the available evidence that you've cited, your synthesis makes quite a lot of sense. Just looking at the map you can tell something is wrong with the picture and that the Soviets are in a good position for a significant operational/strategic offensive into German territory in July of 2000. Thanks for doing the legwork and putting the pieces together.

And I believe that somewhere in canon it does mention that the Soviet 4th GTA was supplied with gasoline as it was intended for offensive operations. U.S. 5th ID's appearance preempted said offensive and the 4th GTA was employed instead in destroying it. It makes little sense to supply a GTA with gas for the purposes of a local counterattack. Furthermore, 4th GTA's exhaustion around Kalisz doesn't necessarily mean that the Soviet Army in Poland was unable to carry out an offensive. As you can see on the maps, the Soviets clearly win the correlation of forces east of Berlin. A drive west on that axis could split Germany and the NATO forces in half. And as I pointed out, there are still two GTAs in Byelorussia- enough for a strategic reserve should things go badly in the west and to keep Byelorussia from following suit with Ukraine.

As for political will, perhaps the Soviet's summer offensive, on a strategic level, was one last gasp attempt to secure German soil as a bargaining chip since the Soviets knew that they could neither sustain offensive operations on such a scale, nor hang on to the German territory that it seized. On an operational level, splitting the NATO forces in Germany in half would hopefully force them back in disarray, thereby allowing the Red army to push the entire front west without too much heavy fighting along its entire lenght. in WWII Bagration (launched in July of '44) forced the Wermacht west along the entire front, from S. Ukraine to the Baltic states even though it was directed at Army Group Center.

Perhaps the Summer 2000 Soviet Offensive was called Bagration II.

[Abbott Shaull]

Yes it seems that that the forces that the Soviet had retained in Poland and Germany could of easily split the NATO force easily.

Like I was asking what was the purpose of the 4th GTA. What were they being held in reserve for. With two other GTA's to the north, and I am sure they received a limit supply of fuel too. Or could there have been an Offensive planned for later with the three GTA's into Germany at a later date. With the what they the Soviets had sent to the 10th Guard Tank Division it seems they were planning something big. And GTA and TA wouldn't of been used for security duty, but used for breakthroughs.

[pmulcahy11b]

Sometimes, thinking about the world situation in 2000-2005 in T2K and wonder, "Why isn't everyone pulled into fortified cantonments" Kind of hunkered down and worrying about themselves.

Then I realize that it's the nature of humans to want more than they have, want better than they have, and unfortunately, to want to project their power to gain what they want. Hence, the march of war would continue.

[Raellus]

Sadly, Paul, I believe you are correct.

Abbot, I think that 4th GTA would have been slated as part of the planned summer offensive described by Legbreaker.

Here's an idea. Perhaps the Soviets were planning a penetration of the thinly held line around Berlin by the 1st GTA followed by a hook to the right towards the Baltic coast by 4th GTA, cutting German 3rd Army off in a pocket. 4th GTA (with Polish 10th TD), with its gasoline, would have been well suited for the long envelopment operation while the Polish 1st and 2nd Armies and 1st PTA (Soviet Baltic Front HQ) could have been assigned the reduction of the pocket by attacking westward once the pocket was formed by Soviet 4th GTA. This operation could well destroy an entire NATO army (3rd German), capture some prime cantonment land, secure northern Poland, and threaten northern Germany and even Denmark.

This operation is modest but ambitious, has concrete and achievable objectives, and would, if successful, clear northern Poland of NATO forces and completely turn NATO's northern flank, paving the way for further offensive operations.

[Legbreaker]

My feeling is that a general offensive along the entire front in Germany was planned with the 4th GTA to be used to bolster either the north, or south section, whichever was showing the greatest chance of success.

Why were they issued with petroleum Firstly, and possibly formost, for the suprise factor. The entire Army was reported to be in the Ukraine and unable to reach the front for months if running on alcohol. If Nato had been sufficiently dug in and prepared, the Pact units already in the area, while numerically stronger, would probably have a tough time making much headway. Nato command might even think they could hold without radical redeployment of units.

The Pact plan was probably banking on Nato remaining where they were and not shifting reinforcements about (which appear to have consisted almost solely of the entirety British forces in Europe - roughly half a dozen divisions). The presence of the 4th GTA in the area would have caused a serious Nato rethink....

Secondly, the 4th GTA were issued with petroleum over a period of time, not in one, short sharp delivery - there simply wouldn't have been sufficent transportation for tens, if not hundreds of thousands of litres in one go. Therefore we can assume that the 4th's move was planned a very long time in advance.

Rae, I like your thinking. I might actually use that as one of the possible goals of the Pact offensive (the other perhaps turning south and cutting off the units there against the Italians and Czechs, the 4th and other Soviet units in the area then becoming the anvil while the Italians and Czechs were the hammer).

Regardless, the Pact offensive was actually more sucessful than one may initially think. Although they didn't catch the full III German Army, they did get about half of it - the US XI Corps. While not destroyed (if you ignore the 5th ID), they have been rendered ineffectual and are unlikely to cause any further significant problems for the Pact (as long as the Pact can avoid falling apart entirely). Heavy on tanks and heavy equipment, the fuel requirement to shift the two largest surviving components of the XI Corp (50th AD and 2nd MarDiv) is likely to force them to remain immobile for months to come.

[Abbott Shaull]

Well the way thing were why stop there, they could of ran toward the Rhine while they were at it. There was little opposing them once and if they were able to do that.

Paul, you would think they would of been doing that instead of trying to be greedy. There will be plenty of communities that would like nothing more than better. The population would be in general like to be left alone, fight when they have too, but in general left alone.