T2K Today: Korea

[Raellus]

I know that Pyongyang is one of the world's best sabre rattlers and that this will probably go nowhere. On the other hand, N. Korea is a rogue state and is capable of just about anything.

If the North launched an attack on the South, the U.S. would be fully committed to providing direct military assistance. Although the situation has improved somewhat over the past two years, the all-volunteer U.S. military is still stretched pretty thin as it is. A war in Korea could conceivably lead to a reactivation of the draft.

With the U.S. preoccupied in Iraq, Afghanistan, and then Korea, I wonder what Iran would do. How would China react to a N. Korean invasion of the South I doubt they'd support it. What if the N. Koreans started getting rolled back like in first Korean War, though Would China intervene on its behalf

Anyway, there are a number of ways one could extrapolate the current "crisis" into a T2K scenario. Although it sounds like a great game system, I think the Twilight 2013 should have gone the Second Korean War route in setting up Armageddon. It seems much more plausible than the convoluted scenario they presented.

[Webstral]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

[cavtroop]

If it were to go hot, the casualties would be just enormous. I have no idea what firebreaks would be drawn by Cousin Kim's regime. The destruction of a major city like Seoul and the damage to the ROK, plus the expenditure of massive treasure to fight the war, might be just the thing to send the US economy into a double dip. Naturally, Kim's people know we think this way and are using our sensitivity to things like human life and economics to turn the screws on us (ROK & allies). I really have no idea where this will lead.

Webstral

Funny you bring this up, I was just thinking about this the other day.

As Webstral said, casualties would be horrific - on a scale not seen since, well, the last Korean war. I have no idea where the US would get the manpower to fight it - anyone not locked up in Iraq/AFG are either winding down from a recent deployment, or gearing up for the next. I guess those guys would go, and the poor guys currently in Iraq/AFG would be in for a long haul.

No question the world markets would tank - EU is on the edge now anyways. And I cant even begin to imagine what Chinas response would be. They'd be getting hammered by the world economy collapsing (who would buy their products).

[Jason Weiser]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing

[Frank Frey]

Here's an interesting thought, the Kims lose it and figure, we're going down (The Dear Leader is thought to have pancreatic cancer, which is usually not a good prognosis, and the son isn't well thought of by the military, which is the going thought on WHY we might be in this mess in the first place), "so let's just do it. I mean, why live in a world without Juche anyhow" might very well be their reasoning. Sometimes, what comes out of NK reminds me of Jonestown.

But, as they get ready to cross the border or as the first shells land on Seoul, the PLA crosses the NK frontier screaming how they've come to save the people of NK from the "criminal Kims" and incidentally, keep the dollars and euros flowing

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

Out Here,
Frank Frey

[HorseSoldier]

I also agree -- PRC has a vested interest in keeping Korea from going into a serious melt down, which would be bad for business. I'd think they'd pull the plug.

Without massive Chinese logistical support, I don't think the NK military could make much of a go of an attack on the South. If the defenders could hold the line against the first surge from the North, that'd pretty much be the end of it, from a strategic perspective. Might not be much comfort to guys on the line fighting while North Korea is effectively dead on its feet, but risk of another Pusan perimeter and all would be gone.

Big question is what would happen if/when ROK/US/etc or Chinese troops tried entering North Korea during a conflict -- would the populace start tearing down the Stalinist monuments and decorations, or would true believers head to the hills to fight on (Or some of both.) What the NK regime might do with their WMD programs is another scary one.

[Raellus]

I agree with you, Jason. From what studying I've done on the situation, the PRC is quite willing and ready to take down the Kims. I'm kind of surprised they haven't done it already.

It seems like the PRC is always dragging its feet when it comes to economic sanctions against NK. I'm not sure the PRC wants a unified, democratic, capitalist Korea right next door. I'm not sure it would want a totalitarian, communist Korea next door either. It'd be great if the PRC took care of the NK problem for us but it would only create other, possibly larger problems, for all of the players in the region (including the U.S.).

What do the Chinese know that we don't

[Jason Weiser]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno Weaponized Smallpox

[Raellus]

I think what they're afraid of is the Kims nuking them or some of their other WMD being used to stave them off. China had enough trouble with SARS and Bird Flu outbreaks, what if the Norks hit Chinese troops with oh, I dunno Weaponized Smallpox

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they

[Dogger]

I Remember all the doom predictions about Saddam's "million man army" in Gulf War I. How they were a bunch of "hardened combat veterans" after years of war against Iran etc etc. We saw how that went.

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

I'm not sure of the state of the SK Army, but I'm sure it's 1000% better than it was in 1950. Add to all this the fact that I think the Allies would in short order control the skies over NK and that the NK forces will probably be in the field en masse and thus be subject to all the punishment such forces suffer when caught out in the open.

Also, there's very little possibility of a massive 'sneak attack' this time with SAT sitting overhead all day everyday. And should the Dear Leader get stupid enough to lob missiles at Japan...I'm not so sure they would sit this one out.

I'm also not to worked up about and WMD from NK being used outside of the Korean Peninsular, we have Ticonderoga class cruisers that now have the capability of -at least- shooting at outbound ICBMs and there's the ABM sites in Alaska that have again scored -at least some- hits on test targets that might head for the US West Coast...and any NK aircraft trying to make some kind of 'bomb run' on Japan or Okinawa would be lit up by Allied aircraft/navy ships long before they got anywhere IMO.

Yes, from a manpower POV the US would be challenged in the opening phase of combat, however air assets could easily be shifted from the ME and possibly offset NK numbers on the ground until greater forces arrived.

This is of course just my opinion on all this.

[pmulcahy11b]

We don't even need to be in South Korea anymore -- the ROKs are more than capable of taking care of the North Koreans by themselves. That was almost true when I was there in the late 1980s, and it's definitely true now. Heck, they have some Russian-made equipment that's way better than the North Korean's Russian equipment -- the fall of the Soviet Union's been a good thing for South Korea. The real reason we're still in the ROK is as a symbol, to let North Korea know we're willing to help the ROK. (Personally, I don't think we have enough troops available for more than a token force these days -- the era when there would have been a sudden, massive intervention in the case of an invasion by the North is over.)

[Eddie]

I don't doubt the NK's will fight should it come to that, I think they'll be much more aggressive than the Iraqi's turned out to be in GWI...but they're still a conscripted army from a dirt poor country that hasn't seen combat in 50+ years, where as the US military is chuck full of combat veterans ATM.

Six thousand men and 21,000 artillery pieces is pretty daunting though.

[Matt W]

What do the Chinese know that we don't

The Chinese (and the Russians) know about the seaport of Rajin (aka Rason)

http://alturl.com/ve28

In a few years, Rajin will be really important (possibly even vital) for the economic development of Siberia and 3 Chinese provinces. The strategic problem is that both Russia and China don't want the other power to control this asset. So - to avoid having to fight over it - they are willing to live with it being under North Korean ownership.

[mikeo80]

I agree that the RPC has every right to be nervous about the Norks (great name!). It just seems like they're not worried enough. If having another nuclear-armed neighbor right next door is something they really fear, why do the Chinese almost always run cold when it comes to taking a hard line against the Norks They seem to be the last ones on the bus whenever the international community tries to turn the screws on the Norks. They've been more supportive of our efforts to take the Kims down a peg over the last couple of years but they could be doing a whole lot more. Why aren't they

IMHO, the Chinese govt is looking for an excuse to take the US down a peg. Just imagine the following scenario.

The NK's invade SK. They probably could take Seoul (Less than 40 klicks from frontier.)

USA Air Force out of Japan and US Navy swarm NK Air Force, then turn the attention of the B-52's on the NK Army

As the NK casualty rate climbs China joins in. Not w/ military, with economics. Demand FULL PAYMENT of all US debt China owns. Payment due in GOLD, or diamonds or other form of permanent value. US Bankrupts in less than 20 days....

[Cdnwolf]

Interesting that in my timeline for Twilight 2013, I have North Korea launching nukes at the south and Guam, Japan. Also people forget that one corner of North Korea touches Russia too... so they have an interest in that part of the world too.