africa

[HorseSoldier]

I imagine during the Twilight War the Chinese presence in Africa would be ramped up. Both to take advantage of those nations that don't want to be involved with either the USA or USSR and to get materials badly needed for their own war efforts, particularly Sudanese oil and other raw minerals.

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

[helbent4]

With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.

HS,

I would tend to disagree for two reasons:

With the Soviets invading their home territories, I imagine the Chinese would need resources from places like Africa more than ever to fight them. Especially Sudanese oil as the Gulf is an active war zone. Even as international commerce collapses I think you'd see a trickle of vital trade being maintained with the African clients they cultivated as long as possible.

I don't quite follow your second point completely, so please bear with me if I'm missing something. Chinese support in Africa in the Cold War wasn't particularly anti-western in nature (other than anti-Taiwanese independence). In fact, their military aid in Africa was either anti-Soviet or in support of neutral nations to burnish its leadership of the "Non-Aligned Movement" (NAM). Obviously, while allies with nothing to offer would be cut off, others would find the bill for past support coming due. We tend to think of aid as being gifts to win friends and influence, but Chinese aid in Africa was always been very pragmatic and of a quid pro quo nature. In other words, they make sure they get direct value for their aid (both military and economic) and would therefore be motivated to keep it up as long as possible, which I think could exist in the form of trade throughout the Twilight War.

How China could pay for needed African resources would change over the course of the Twilight War. For example, before there was direct western involvement the USA and western European nations could guarantee loans to China to pay for resources, or even funnel aid (economic or military) directly to Chinese Clients to bolster them against Soviet influence or against Soviet clients. In the later stages of the war, pure military and economic aid would dry up as industrial infrastructure comes under nuclear attack. The HW Handbook mentions that Chinese warlords are able to independently produce weapons and ammunition and where possible these could be traded.

Of course, as mentioned the main player in Africa will once again be France. If anyone could facilitate African trade with China it would be them, mainly by guaranteeing Chinese purchases of African resources and funneling aid to China through their own clients and former colonies. One good reason for France to gain influence in postwar Asia and in doing so better position itself as the next postwar superpower.

Tony

[Raellus]

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa. The Cold War Soviet navy was a lot stronger than the CW PRC navy and I see the Soviets as being able to shut down most of China's maritime trade. Soviet commerce raiders (mostly subs) wouldn't have much trouble sinking unescorted Chinese merchant vessels. I say unescorted because CW China's navy didn't really have much of a blue water capability. NATO navies would be too busy to escort Chinese merchant ships on their way to and from Africa.

I see China's main maritime priority during the war as maintaining the flow of military and humanitarian aid coming in from the States. Africa would quickly become a sideshow and, once the Soviets start launching large-scale nuclear strikes against the PRC, I just don't see China as being able to maintain significant trade with Africa.

In my Operation Proud Lion scenario I allude to the fact that China, once very active in the region (Tanzania in particular), had to pretty much cut ties after the Soviet invasion. The Soviets used this to leverage support in the region, leading to the Tanzanian invasion of Kenya.

[helbent4]

Tony,

I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa.

Rae,

Let's just say I think it's plausible but I wouldn't go to the wall to defend my opinions in this case.

Regarding your specific points, China was a major industrial power before and during the Twilight War (while the industrial infrastructure lasted). Aid from the west would be important, but the Chinese would want to make use of their own extensive manufacturing infrastructure so as to not become too dependent on western aid. Much like how Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union was secondary to Russia's own industry. The west in turn would have every reason to assist in shipping raw materials from Africa and protecting Chinese shipping because an independently-supplied Chinese industry complements their own aid efforts (and it's cheaper for them). In other words, it's not a case of competing priorities when it comes to either Chinese trade with Africa and/or direct western aid: both could complement each other.

After the nuclear strikes, France (as the surviving European industrial power) would see it in their interests to continue to assist China, because they have no real motive to see China collapse completely. After all, if they are the sole superpower in the postwar world they're just going to have to pick up the pieces! For their faults, China is not an aggressor in the Twilight War (unlike NATO and the PacWar) and so are relatively blameless. Some kind of Chinese entity would still be a valuable postwar counter-weight to the Soviet Union or whatever political entity governs Russia or parts thereof. Even covertly, assisting China (whichever faction) in maintaining trade ties to Africa could be in France's best interests, and is certainly very cost-efficient for them.

So, I could still see some kind of Chinese presence in Africa during the early Twilight War with western (US/UK) support (including naval protection or re-flagging vessels) and then in the late war period with French assistance. Not strictly canon but fits in with the complicated international relations, even in the late war period.

Really, I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't feel strongly either way; I could see China having some kind of presence in Africa or not.

Tony

[Legbreaker]

I agree that China will be virtually in active in Africa after 1995. Once hostilities kick off involving Nato, I suspect that the South American countries in addition to Australia and New Zealand will become more active, at least from a trade standpoint than the northern hemisphere.
I do not see France as particularly active as they have several wars being fought on, or close to their borders at home. The majority of troops will be stationed there pre nuke just in case there's an incursion. Post nuke and the troops will be needed for civil defence duties which includes maintaining the rule of law and disaster relief.
This is not to say they won't have troops in Africa, just that they'll be limited to the bare minimum required to get specific jobs done.

Trade routes are likely to change dramatically since virtually every country in the northern hemisphere is a war zone. The southern hemisphere by comparison is almost conflict free so I can see food, raw materials and other shipments which would have gone across the equator staying south.

Many of the less stable and resource poor regions are likely to be completely abandonned by outside influences. Civil war would probably erupt on a wide scale as tribal differences, quelled for the most part by external influence, bubble to the surface. National borders would mean nothing (having for the most part been artificially applied by colonising powers in the previous century or three).

South Africa as a country would be in a bad way in my opinion. Apartheid was still in effect until the mid ninties (the elections in 1994 brought in the ANC and pushed out the white National Party that had been running the show for living memory). Although this was the end of white domination, there are still many, many cases today where whites effectively control the wealth and power. With the hostilities elsewhere in the world diverting the attention of those who might otherwise give a damn, the region is likely to have exploded into violence.

Zimbabwe is probably a good example of what Africa as a whole might look like. Ruled by a strongman, it's essentially ignoring all outside influence. Living conditions for the majority of it's people are poor with medical care minimal at best. Food should be plentiful, but as the ruling "class" are more interested in forcing people from their property to "redistribute" the land to their supporters (who do little more than squat on the land without working it) most end up starving. Nearly no gods enter to country so replacement parts for machinery is difficult to come by. There's more, but a few minutes on google should give all anyone really needs.

[John Farson]

Also, once the Russians nuke China to hell whatever remnants of the PRC government (if they even exist) will have far more pressing matters to attend to than trying to maintain even a scant presence in Africa.

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

[pmulcahy11b]

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

And the French would love to have a big-time client state that's still in decently-good shape in Africa -- especially since they seem to be taking the long view in T2K.

[Legbreaker]

Yes, I don't think Apartheid would still be in force in T2K, but there's going to be a LOT of residual hangovers from it. The entire region (not just country) is likely to be very, very chaotic as it tries to sort itself out without external influences.
South Africa to me is probably a great location to carry out a Merc style campaign in the Twilight timeline.

[Raellus]

Also, once the Russians nuke China to hell whatever remnants of the PRC government (if they even exist) will have far more pressing matters to attend to than trying to maintain even a scant presence in Africa.

Agreed. According to v1.0 canon, China is in no shape to sustain international trade after the second year of the war.

South Africa is definitely the wild card in sub-Saharan Africa.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I've seen a lot of people talk about South Africa in the Twilight War as being apartheid South Africa, but to me it is far more interesting to think how South Africa would be like during the Twilight War if it was being run by Nelson Mandela and the ANC. Here you have a man who has spent his whole life fighting for democracy against a racist dictatorship, and once he has finally succeeded the whole world goes to hell. In this scenario S. Africa may very well be the one shining beacon of civilization in Africa, a sort of an African France if you will.

Actually Mandela was not fighting for democracy at all. He was definitely fighting to get rid of white rule that was inherently racist but he wasn't interested in democracy. Democracy would mean he would be interested in the plight of the other tribal groups in South Africa and he certainly did not care about them as can be seen by the numerous attacks carried out by the ANC against other black struggle groups.
It should be remembered that the ANC (like nearly all the other black struggle groups) was heavily funded by the KGB. Yes that's correct, the Soviet Union provided the money, weapons, training & indoctrination to allow Mandela and his cronies to fight against white rule.
The KGB support a group that wanted democracy I don't think so.

Shining beacon of civilization in Africa Sorry if I offend but do you seriously believe that I look at South Africa today and I cannot see one single example of this in the ANC government. Soweto was promised electricity and water by Mandela if they voted for the ANC... it's now 2010, Soweto has spent the last 16 years waiting for that promise to be fulfilled.
Lets not forget that it was the ANC that invented the charming practice of "necklacing" - placing a car tyre around the victim's neck, filling it with petrol then setting it alight. South Africa under the ANC would be just as screwed as any other country in Africa in the Twilight War.

[helbent4]

Agreed. According to v1.0 canon, China is in no shape to sustain international trade after the second year of the war.

South Africa is definitely the wild card in sub-Saharan Africa.

Rae,

China couldn't do it on it's own, but it could with help. More to the point, as mentioned there are outside groups that would have ample motives to do so. It's therefore within the realm of the possible that there are Chinese nationals active in Africa, minding what small yet vital trickle of resources can be sent overseas.

Regarding the other points about South Africa (made by various posters), I guess it's a matter of comparison if it's a "shining beacon" or not. It's worthy to note that political violence has decreased significantly during ANC rule, although not disappeared. While the KGB may have been involved in covert support of the ANC, the ANC's greatest political victories came after this support was ended, indicating internal social forces and not outside influence were the main driving force for the ANC. Mandela's motives can certainly be second-guessed. I think if he was a true communist then he would have easily been able to implement wide-ranging political and economic "reforms" along the lines of "socialist" neighbors and other African nations, but this did not happen. Elections are internationally recognised as being fair and free, although improvements are still needed.

Putting aside our subjective likes or dislikes of Mandela and the ANC, let's think about what might happen, objectively, if the hard liners succeeded in their coup against Gorbachev and continued the Cold War. I tend to assume that somehow economic reforms in the USSR were successful (a bit of a stretch, I know) but by the mid-90's the Soviet Union was back on its feet (and ready to invade China). In the mid 90's the tides had shifted in South Africa and KGB assistance or no, Apartheid was on its way out and democracy was on the way in.

After Mandela takes power, the KGB is in a bit of a difficult position. The side they backed won, but doesn't seem eager to throw off the yoke of capitalism or adopt a communist government. Mostly, they would be interested in a neutral South Africa in the war with China, and this would be achievable. By mid-Twilight (the nuclear exchange), Soviet aid and influence in Africa and South Africa has severely waned. SA would therefore be looking to protect its own interests in Africa, perhaps forming a regional defensive bloc. Trade to Europe and North America has decreased considerably. so new markets are needed, perhaps in South America, surviving Asian nations (like Thailand) and Australia (which should by all rights be an industrial power in the T2K universe). If there is trade with some Chinese factions, then surviving KGB elements could organise ad hoc disruptions of this (using labour unions, political allies, left-wing extremists, etc.).

Tony

[Rainbow Six]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

[Raellus]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

Agreed. As an unabashed v1.0 supporter, I agree that SA would remain under apartheid so long as the Soviet Union continued to exist.

[natehale1971]

You also could see a slight change in Apartheid with the Whites & Coloureds and the Zulu coming together to create a power block of their own during The chaos of the Twilight War.

In fact, my version of 2300ad has this happening. The Whites (the 'English' & Afrikaners), the Coloureds and the Zulu people created such a power bloc that created the Free State of Transvaal-Zulu while the rest of South Africa had devolved into chaos with the ANC and other tribal groups fighting over control of the resources of South Africa that were not in the areas under the control of Transvaal-Zulu (and protected by the Nuclear stockpile they didn't use during the war).

As the world collapsed into total chaos, the South African Armed Forces took a fortress Transvaal-Zulu strategy and provided physical security for the Whites, Coloureds and others that were aligned with the Power Bloc would retreat into the areas under their control along with the country's stockpile of Nukes.

[helbent4]

I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.

In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".

R6,

South Africa certainly could come apart for many reasons. While I understand the emotional linking of Apartheid to communism, I would like to understand what the reasoning is. This is a lot like the assertion that Pope John Paul II somehow caused the fall of communism... the two events (his becoming Pope and the end of the Cold War) may be directly linked, but it's hard to find a concrete connection or causal chain of events leading from one to the other.

I'm not looking for a debate on how Pope JPII caused or didn't cause the end of communism. I'm more wondering what the end of communism would have to do with the fall of Apartheid or the continuation of one somehow guarantees the continuing of the other. If anything, if we grant the KGB supported the ANC then in theory there should be an opposite effect. That is, if KGB support is withdrawn then the ANC should have collapsed, but it didn't.

How about for the v1 or v2/2.2 timeline Apartheid ends in South Africa, but the still-existing KGB prods the ANC into more of a revolutionary end-game. Land and businesses belonging to whites are seized, en masse, some kind of "African Socialism" is imposed. Splits appear in the ANC and their allies, perhaps Mandela declares himself "President-for-Life" or is ousted and/or assassinated for being too moderate (by hard-line Afrikaaner militia commandos or false-flag KGB operatives) and a race war erupts. As the events spiral out of control in the rest of the world and in South Africa, a "fortress Trasnvaal-Zulu" strategy is enacted, per Nate's post.

Tony