Just In: Osama is dead

[dragoon500ly]

Of course there is some level of conspiracy (in fact, secrecy) and, in France, we call that "raison d'tat". In 1998, I was finishing my bachelor in modern history at the American University of Paris. We were prosecuting Papon (for his action during ww2) and Miterrand had just declared that the archives would be made available to the public. It was true but for 5% of them. As a good historian, my teacher asked for access to these 5% (after all, the French president had just said that free access will be given to them). On the next day, he received a call from the minister of interior affairs asking him not to try to go any further or he would be thrown out of the country.

Tell me about it! I was researching Dien Bien Phu for a paper I was writing and filed a request to access the military archives. You would have thought that I had put on a ninja outfit and tried to paint the Effiel Tower red, white and blue! Hostile, threatening and uncooperative does not begin to describe the atitude!!!! So I cut my stay in France short and left for Germany.

Funny thing, I was able to get much easier access to the German military achives and got invaluable help from a trained staff of profesional historians. Never wrote that paper on DBP, but managed an even better one covering the German side of the fighting and surrender of elements of the 106th Infantry Division.

Still, I've always wondered why the atitude, especially since I was only requesting access to the combat logs of the various units involved in the fighting for the Hughette strongpoints...must have been the site of some kind of nuclear research facility......

[WallShadow]

Legbreaker, vortex ring is nothing new; there is nothing mysterious about it- it is a known risk of descending in the hover, made worse when descending in the hover into a confined space, and when descending quickly. Ever watch the helicopter descent in Jurassic Park Vortex ring is the reason the helo descends so slowly into that ravine...
All it takes is a slight miscalculation of the horizontal stop point, leaving you with a longer than planned hovering descent, the need to get on the ground fast... it doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, or anything failed- it just means that things can go wrong when you have to do something dangerous (as I suspect you know better than I do...)

Is vortex ring illustrated in the opening sequence to the TV series China Beach A medevac chopper is landing between two smoke grenades, and the smoke billows out, up, and around to the tops of the rotors, apparently.

[95th Rifleman]

I read a joke the other day that made me think.

America has releaseda definitive version of events in regards to bin laden. He was shot by Navy Seals after charging them, mounted on Shergar, wielding Iraqi WMDs and using Lord Lucan as a human shield.

Bin laden was one of the 21st century's most influential men. Think about it, one bloke managed to hide for 10 years while being hunted by the world's biggest (arguably the last) superpower, with all those resources and money behind the search. He was responsible for dragging America into the Afghan war and expending vast resources in the prosecution of that war, a conflict that has dragged so many western nations into it.

Now it's over and he's reduced to a few jokes and conspiracy theories. Yet America is still fighting in Afghanistan.

You can't help wonder who won in the end. Decades from now the conspiracy theories will still be out there and people will still be using his name to justify their terrorist agenda. Even after his death, you can't help wonder who has won really, bin laden or America.

[Sanjuro]

If you can be bothered with 4 minutes of film, here is a demo using a radio-controlled model; the actual phenomenom is at about 2:40, but he explains how he is going to set it up first.

http://www.youtube.com/watchv=0Kz_gOWaR7Y

As for China Beach (never heard of it until today!), I watched the opening credits on youtube but none of the helo shots seems to last long enough.

[Owen E Oulton]

It's occurred to me that if they want to find Zawakiri, they have to think outside the box. F'rinstance if Osama was in Abbotabad, they simply have to find a place called Costellobad.

[Mohoender]

You would have thought that I had put on a ninja outfit and tried to paint the Effiel Tower red, white and blue!

You should have done that. You would have been recognized as a bright and "avant-garde" artist. You would aslo probably have received a few millions from the french governement and you would still be receiving money from copyright of all taken pictures.

About DBP you went to the wrong country, you must have gone to Vietnam.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

There may another reason for for the chopper crash. Even the best quality NVGs have issues with depth perception. Landing in an enclosed compound, with partial cloud cover would create problems for pilots using NVGs. Some of the stories that are floating around state that the pilot may have hit either a wall or one of the compound's building with a rotor which would have caused the crash...

I would not be surprised at all if this turns out to be the case. There was a situation here in Western Australia in the very early 1990s where the SASR had to medevac a driver at night because he crashed the patrol Landie into a ditch that didn't show up very well in his NVGs. Gave him some broken ribs and lung complications as I recall.

[dragoon500ly]

You should have done that. You would have been recognized as a bright and "avant-garde" artist. You would aslo probably have received a few millions from the french governement and you would still be receiving money from copyright of all taken pictures.

About DBP you went to the wrong country, you must have gone to Vietnam.

LOL

I'll keep that in mind the next time I travel to France! Although the IRS would have waaaaay too much fun with me when I return!

As for DBP, it was easy to get info from the Vietnamese (on the other hand explaining to my boss why I was contacting the Viet Military Attache was lots of fun...NOT!). Although I have to admit I was really surprised at the atitude they displayed, certainly not what I expected, even offered to arrange a tour of the battlefield if I traveled to Vietnam, an offer that I make take up some day.

The French Army on the other hand....I was left with the distinct impression that the next combat operation by the Paras would be directed against the hotel I was staying at!!!

Ah well!

[Legbreaker]

I'm not saying the vortex ring isn't possible, or even all that unlikely, just that you'd think highly trained and practised pilots as you would hope were used would know how to avoid such a thing occurring.
Of course we don't even know if that is what caused the crash, it's just a guess (educated perhaps, but still just a guess).
My statement is that the timing seems awfully convenient to cover up the possibility the AQ detected them coming and had the time to fire off a few shots. It's the way the US have released information (very grudgingly in dribs and drabs) about the operation that's fodder for conspiracy theories.

[dragoon500ly]

I'm not saying the vortex ring isn't possible, or even all that unlikely, just that you'd think highly trained and practised pilots as you would hope were used would know how to avoid such a thing occurring.
Of course we don't even know if that is what caused the crash, it's just a guess (educated perhaps, but still just a guess).
My statement is that the timing seems awfully convenient to cover up the possibility the AQ detected them coming and had the time to fire off a few shots. It's the way the US have released information (very grudgingly in dribs and drabs) about the operation that's fodder for conspiracy theories.

Even the most experienced pilot has that dumbass moment. One that comes to mind is a pilot flying a FM-2 Wildcat at an air show, he had over two thousand hours in that aircraft, and on the day of the air show, forgot to unlock the tailwheel and managed to ground loop and flip the plane.

Under combat stress, I can see a pilot making an error that results in the damage or destruction of the aircraft. It happens all too often and a good planner always makes sure that a backup is available, a brutal lesson that had to be relearned after Desert One.

As for the conspiracy theorists......its only going to get worse!

[Abbott Shaull]

Gee seeing that supposedly his compound was heavily guarded. It would surprise me that they had time to shoot down one of the helicopters in the force that was sent to take out Osama. At least they had spares milling around in the assault force to recover both the pilots/crew and the SEALs who were on the helicopter.

[Legbreaker]

It would have only taken one man with an AK.....
Doesn't really matter how many were in the assaulting force if that one man was able to fire off a burst or two and got lucky.

Of course I'm not saying that's how it happened, just that it's a possibility, and given that the US have been rather hesitant to give details of the op.....

[Abbott Shaull]

It would have only taken one man with an AK.....
Doesn't really matter how many were in the assaulting force if that one man was able to fire off a burst or two anf got lucky.

Of course I'm not saying that's how it happened, just that it's a possibility, and given that the US have been rather hesitant to give details of the op.....

Honestly I am not too interested in the release of the details. Why piss off people anymore than they are already over the damn situation.

[Legbreaker]

Sure there are plenty of people out there, possibly even the majority, who don't care a bit about the details, just the result (and many who don't even care about that). However, there's still plenty of people who are intensely interested, such as the Pakistani government, or AQ for example...
And you can bet that virtually every intelligence agency and terrorist organisation on the planet will be doing whatever they can to find out as much detail as they can - information is power after all.

There's no doubt that much of the detail should remain secret, but the information which has been produced by the US is at best confusing, and at worst possibly a complete fabrication. When certain details are released, then retracted and replaced with other details, it creates a fertile breeding ground for conspiracy theories. We don't know what is true and what is just misdirection, or even if there was any attempt at misdirection. Without believable independant sources, we're left with very little to base opinions on.

More than anything I believe it's the PR campaign which has failed here, not the actual operation itself. It seems the US were not ready for the loss of an aircraft or the failure of the mission - the PR people had it seems planned only for complete success and were caught short when things didn't quite turn out as expected. Even the possibility of the death of UBL doesn't seem to have received much forethought.

[Targan]

I see what you're saying Leg. I'm inclined to accept the current US explanation of events but I do find a few aspects of the case troubling (perhaps confusing would be a better way to describe it). Two areas of concern that spring immediately to mind are why more emphasis wasn't placed on capturing OBL alive, and why he was given a burial at sea without any independent observers being invited to verify the identity of the body.

I've never been very much into conspiracies myself. I'm an Occam's razor kind of guy.