New Chinese Carrier

[ShadoWarrior]

If China had a "border clash" with Vietnam, what was the outright Chinese invasion of India in 1962, another "border clash" China is a very real threat to all of her neighbors.

[Fusilier]

It gets called a "border clash" when it fails as an invasion I guess...

But I see that the Vietnamese refer to it as "war" though, but who are they to decide It only involved a opposing force that commanded more divisions than the United States Army has on paper.

Regardless, the point stands that China has indeed attacked another foreign power, and Vietnam is good example no matter what you call it or why it happened (supporting Pol Pot of all things).

The deep rooted distrust between Vietnamese and China didn't begin in 1979 either. For over a thousand years much of Vietnam was controlled by the Chinese. The sentiment of distrust and dislike continues to this very day, and once you throw in ahem, border clashes and battles for the Spratly's, it won't be going away anytime soon.

[Legbreaker]

The Chinese people are roughly the same, the leadership of the past half century is definately different in almost all ways.

[dragoon500ly]

It's a significant threat. When your not looking at it like a no holds barred WW3 apocalypse between the world's superpowers.

Instead of comparing it that of the US navy's carriers, consider the local nations and how the purchase of a single old diesel electric sub or handful of fighter jets has been enough to increase tensions in the past.

If you are Southeast Asian or from the Philippines for example, this is a rather big deal.

And this is a valid point. It is certainly going to lead to military build-up in the region. And that means all kinds of problems 2-3 years down the road.

But what can nations in the region do South Korea and Japan would be the most likely to lay down new ship construction, Vietnam will certainly start building missile boats and I expect trying to get their hands on submarines. The Philippines are not currently able to sustain a military build up at least not without a massive infusion of loans from the US. India is already adding new naval construction, the question is can their economy sustain any meaningful build up.

[Legbreaker]

...a massive infusion of loans from the US.

Umm, you have seen what's happening with the US economy lately haven't you
It doesn't really matter what regional neighbours can or cannot do. The fact is China has, and will continue over the coming years, radically changed the perceived balance of power in Asia.
Given the US financial woes, chances are that in 10-15 years or so they will be nowhere near the military check on China they are now. China, whether we like it or not, is the emerging superpower and is likely to be the only super power within a few decades. With the massive debt the US has on it's back, some serious spending cuts will have to be made. These cuts have to include military spending and a dramatic reduction in force projection capability.

[Panther Al]

And to cull one of my earlier posts in another thread, lets not forget this:




The Spratly's. In short, a group of some 100 islets, atolls, and reefs that total only about 5 square kilometers of land, but sprawl across some 410,000 square kilometers of the South China Sea. Set amid some of the world's most productive fishing grounds, the islands are believed to have enormous oil and gas reserves. Several nations have overlapping claims on the group. About 45 of the islands are currently occupied by small numbers of military personnel. China claims them all, but occupies only 8, Vietnam has occupied or marked 25, the Philippines 8, Malaysia 6, and Taiwan one. So far we have told everyone that we are backing the Philippines, and Vietnam and China has had naval battles over them: in 88 the ChiCom navy sank a Vietnamese Troop transport that was heading to a marked Vietnamese island. The Chinese has also recently occupied (with armed troops) an island claimed by the Philippines and have told them that under no circumstances will China permit anyone to explore for oil: particularly addressed to the Philippines.



Now: This is where almost all the angst in the area is rooted around. Despite what China says, one look at a map will tell you that they don't have a dog in this hunt. But they are forcing it anyways. And so far they have bullied, shot, and killed to keep that dog in the hunt. What makes anyone think that as the Peoples Liberation Army's Navy (And aint that a mouthful) gets more powerful as they get more peaceful

[Fusilier]

Despite what China says, one look at a map will tell you that they don't have a dog in this hunt.

One of their best bits of evidence to push the "we own them" is that old Chinese vases and porcelain have been found on some of the islands.

[Panther Al]

True enough: But the question is, how and why Was it an official Chinese Settlement Was it traders, or people who bought Chinese goods because that was what they wanted

I honestly have no answer to this: So it could be, and it might not be. You's pays your money, and you's take the chances.

[Fusilier]

True enough: But the question is, how and why Was it an official Chinese Settlement Was it traders, or people who bought Chinese goods because that was what they wanted

I honestly have no answer to this: So it could be, and it might not be. You's pays your money, and you's take the chances.

I was being sarcastic... or something like that.

[Panther Al]

I figured you was, but still, I am fussy enough to point out such things. After all, for fun one long weekend I decided to (using the info in the TW2K books) to figure out how much of *everything* a US ACAV regiment would need: From food to bullets, from trucks to tanks, to how many sets of uniforms, how much in the way of spares (Figured at 2.5% of total weight of everything that might need them), and how much of everything it would take to move said regiment 600km. And how much it would take to move said muchness, etc, etc, etc...

[95th Rifleman]

China has always seen it's direct neighbours as "buffer" zones. Historicly they have always been keen on having these nations as client states or occupied protectorates, this is nothing new and can't really be linked to their relatively new communist government. They have been scrapping over Korea and taiwan for centuries (if not longer).

Some folks in the west are still obsessed with this capatalism v communism thing and see China as the new russia, an evil red beast just waiting to spread communism like a crimson plague across the world.

Sure China is a potential threat to it's direct neighbours if they can't secure client state status over them, but this has been the case for 3 thousand years. On a global scale the Chinese are more focused on economic dominance because it's the age old method by which they have always succeeded. It took a superior maritime, economic empire (the British) to knock them off their perch and now there is no longer such a threat as America is in China's pocket now, financialy speaking.

[dragoon500ly]

Umm, you have seen what's happening with the US economy lately haven't you
It doesn't really matter what regional neighbours can or cannot do. The fact is China has, and will continue over the coming years, radically changed the perceived balance of power in Asia.
Given the US financial woes, chances are that in 10-15 years or so they will be nowhere near the military check on China they are now. China, whether we like it or not, is the emerging superpower and is likely to be the only super power within a few decades. With the massive debt the US has on it's back, some serious spending cuts will have to be made. These cuts have to include military spending and a dramatic reduction in force projection capability.

Something been happening Beyond the Beltway Another congressman showing his wenie on YouTube perhaps

IMHO what is happening is that the PRC understands that the end of PaxAmerica is coming and they are simply positioning themselves to start the PaxChina.

It is doubtful that the PRC will be able to sustain the global reach that the US enjoyed. But certainly I expect them be the dominant power in the Far East and to be able to project, at least, naval and diplomatic power. Will they reach superpower status Doubt it, if the last 50 odd years have shown us anything, any nation that reaches for that status will certainly implode at some point from the sheer cost.

And while this is all going on, it seems that everyone has forgotten a certain terrorist organization....anybody truly believe that with the death of OBL, that they aren't making plans for a little payback

[pmulcahy11b]

One surprising thing I heard yesterday is that economist are worried because China's economy appears to be flattening -- they've had less than 3% GDP growth the past three years, and each year it's been falling a little. At the beginning of the 20th century, they were the world's third largest economy, and at the beginning of the 21st, they're still the world's 3rd largest economy.

The US hegemony was born out of World War 2. Maybe China will remember this and engineer a cataclysmic war to bring them out front

[RN7]

Some sources also claim that two more carriers are under construction. Anyway, China has stated that it intends to have three carriers (to match ROK and Japan navies). New class of LPD are also being launched.

China's obvious intention is to build a navy that will allow it to have some projection capability but with no intention to compete with the US Navy. What would be the point

Something else is to take into account, China (like Persia) has not attacked any foreign power in more than 3000 years. Why would this change

Invasion of northern Dzungaria (1949)
Invasion of Tibet (1950)
Korean War (1950-1953)
Sino-Indian War (1962)
Sino-Soviet Border Conflict (1969)
Battle of the Paracel Islands (1974)
Sino-Vietnam War (1979)
Sino-Vietnam Border Conflicts (1979-1990)

[ShadoWarrior]

The US hegemony was born out of World War 2. Maybe China will remember this and engineer a cataclysmic war to bring them out front

To be "out front" they'd have to win such a war, or at least profit from it. There'll be no winners from a World War 3, even if the Chinese managed to engineer a war in which they didn't get sucked into it themselves. Military issues aside (and that's a big assumption), crashing the global economy (which WW3 would certainly do) would hurt China enough to prevent them from dominating the world.

BTW, even if one ignores US interests, Russia would not sit idly by and permit China to replace the US as the world's superpower. While there's little love lost between Russia and the US, Russia knows that they're safe from the US (despite their frequent protestations to the contrary). There's no love lost between Russia and China. They've hated each other forever.