OT - Is America looking over its shoulder

[RN7]

I agree that many of China's economic figures don't add up but the vehicles produced/fuel consumed analogy isn't a strong one to make the point. China exports a lot of the vehicles it now produces. Also there's the legacy issue. Wealthy western countries like America and Australia only write off and destroy a fraction of their total vehicles each year. In Australia there are something like 3 vehicles for every person (maybe more, this is going from memory), whereas most people in China don't currently have cars. Their domestic car market is only just starting to fill a largely empty consumer pool (Chinese urbanites obviously have a higher propertion of car ownership than rural areas though).

In 2010 China exported 566,000 vehicles, but the ratio of exported vehicles to those produced is lower than any of the traditional automobile producing nations in the West or Japan and South Korea, and even lower than other comparable developing nations such as Brazil and India

Look at where Chinese vehicles are exported to; Algeria (47,200 units), Syria (32,800 units), Vietnam (32,800 units), Russia (31,300 units), Chile (31,200 units), Iran (30,600 units), Egypt (30,000 units), Brazil (28,900 units), Bangladesh (25,300 units), and Iraq (24,200 units). China is selling cheap cars and trucks to the 3rd world and 'friendly' nations only because the quality of its vehicles are so bad that they would never meet safety requirements in any developed or even nearly developed country in North America, Europe or Asia.

Also there is the issue of Chinese car makers copying Western and Japanese vehicles or simply adding different parts or bodywork to their cars and then trying to pass them off as their own design.

Examples:

Some BYD cars look very similar to those made by Lexus, Toyota, Honda, Mercedes Benz and Porsche. For example the BYD S8 bears similarity to the Mercedes CLK from the front, and the Renault Megane CC or third generation Chrysler Sebring convertible from the rear. The BYD F1 has been described as a clear copy of the Toyota Aygo, while the BDY F3 is believed to be a clear copy of the Toyota Corolla.

Shuanghuan Motors make the Laibao SR-V. Its a blatant rip-off of the Honda CR-V. Shuanghuan also ripped off Audi's 4 rings to use as it's logo using 2 rings instead. Both Honda and Audi have gone after Shuanghuan with lawsuits. Also the Shuanghuan Auto Ceo is basically a BMW X5.

The Geely Merie are based on the old C-class and E-class Mercedes Benz designs with front and rear chopped from a Mercedes C-Class and grafted on to the car. The Geely Panda has headlamps lifted from the Alfa Romeo MiTo, a rear from a Toyota Aygo, an engine and front grille from some Korean cars and is named after the Fiat Panda. Geely also has used a logo that resembled Toyota.

The Chevrolet Spark was designed solely for the Chinese market. But not even a year after the Spark was introduced, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp released a model that looked suspiciously strikingly similiar called the Chery QQ. General Motors sued Chery accusing it of copying the first generation Daewoo Matiz in its design for the Chery QQ. Other Chery models have also been found to be using Dawoo technology. The Eastar and its derivatives are considered to be copies of the Daewoo Magnus. The Chery Tiggo was also criticized for resembling the second generation Toyota RAV4.

Great Wall Motor Company was accused by Nissan for stealing their Frontier nose for an SUV. Fiat also claimes that that the Great Wall Peri is a copy of its 2nd-generation Fiat Panda.

And I could go on infinitum.....

Also the cars are so badly made that they did realy bad in a Russian crash test and some even got zero ratings in Latin American tests. Also the latest news coming out of China is that the Chinese government will be forcing all foreign carmakers to disclose their electric vehicle technology secrets before the vehicles are allowed to be sold in China!!!!!

They are total and utter con artists, just plain scumbags. Imagine the trouble that's going to happen when the Chinese clones start to be dumped in America, Europe and Japan (Well not Japan as their just too smart to allow them in the first place). Every Western Car maker will be hiring thousands of laywers to suit them. God help us all when the cloned Airbus and Boeings start to appear!

[Targan]

Wow, did you write all that off the top of your head If so you're either REALLY interested in the Chinese car industry or you're one of those eidetic memory people who absorb every detail they ever read.

[RN7]

Wow, did you write all that off the top of your head If so you're either REALLY interested in the Chinese car industry or you're one of those eidetic memory people who absorb every detail they ever read.

Well I'd love to take the credit for having an eidetic memory but this is all over the internet if you want to google it.

[Webstral]

But thats part of the problem with China Webstral, its not a free market capatalist economy.

But the US is a [relatively] free market capitalist economy. The Chinese dont have to be capitalists to welcome foreign investment warmly. When it suits them, they have the option of nationalizing foreign-owned assets in the PRC. This has not prevented American business from investing heavily; nor has the loss of manufacturing inspired the US to place additional duties on imports from China; nor has the staggering trade imbalance inspired anything meaningful in the way of reforms. Why We are dedicated free market capitalists. The Chinese are simply exploiting the situation. They could be eating baby legs and the capitalists would continue to invest and demand low tariffs so long as there was money to be made.

[Neal5x5]

For myself, it's less a fear of the Chinese or any other nation gaining some kind ofeconomic or military edge than it is a fear that something is seriously wrong with the Western world's economy. In the US we've had the worst "recovery" from the recession of 2009 than any other time in modern history and we are almost certain to go back into a recession starting Q1 2013. Moreover, those people that should be concerned seem to have little to no interest in doing anything about it.

Perhaps this is a time of change and decline in the West, but as a smart man has said "decline is a choice". The problem is that we are choosing it.

[Trooper]

For myself, it's less a fear of the Chinese or any other nation gaining some kind ofeconomic or military edge than it is a fear that something is seriously wrong with the Western world's economy. In the US we've had the worst "recovery" from the recession of 2009 than any other time in modern history and we are almost certain to go back into a recession starting Q1 2013. Moreover, those people that should be concerned seem to have little to no interest in doing anything about it.

Perhaps this is a time of change and decline in the West, but as a smart man has said "decline is a choice". The problem is that we are choosing it.

Change can be uncomfortable and scary, and in a twisted way, it's sometimes more comfortable to stay in a situation, that no longer fits than it is to take a leap of faith toward something new.

Four horsemen:

http://www.youtube.com/watchv=V8RSGR30U-I

[headquarters]

China vs. The World

I hate to say it, but the US once overtook Britain as the hegemon or the top dog economically, industrially, militarily and quite frankly culturally. By 1960 jeans were on every buttock to put it that way.

China has had posibilities to rise these last 40 years. A massive and Cheap workforce, a strong central govt . A huge western market with money to spend like sailors on shoreleave.

They have done well, I will give them that.
In 1950 then had just come out of 5 decades of civil war, occupation,invation, hunger, and mismanagment on a celestial scale. Today they are seri,s contenders on the world stage. Impressive people,really.

In modern times the middel classes have been more instrumental to revolutions and upheavels Thanks people realize. They influence the system with their stance on various issues from democratic rights to the question of economic management. Revolution is not incubated and hatched along the dispossessed and uneducated labourers alone.

Chinas rapid success and growth has been possible due to a strong regime. This will also create the critical bottleneck for the Chinese. How to subdue a increasingly well educated and wealthy populace and at the same time Get then to put in the hours and the loyalty

How to come with the increasingly harsh divides economically in China Today You have a large class of people some 150 million strong that enjoy a comparatively high standard of living, on par with many western countries. They have education to international levels and probably hold views similar to their Peers in other countries. Still a large rural population live in somewhat poor conditions with little possibility for social movement upwards.

China will run into a new Great wall in a decade or two. Its own people. They will demand wages, a say in the governance and liberties. Also they will head into waters that are ripe with the possibility for internalisert unrest if they do not solve the disparity in income, education and liberties that exist. They already have to send in riot policy to quell factory strikes involving tens of thousands of workers. This will escalate.

Great forces are in motion to propel China forward and into the lead globally. But imho You cant have Great forces in motion without something being trampled or squeezed under them. And that will lead to a backlash be it recession,revolt or stagnation.

As for the Yanks in all this..As long as the Sino-American economic relation continues to be like one of those couples You see out on the weekend, botn drink and having an ugly argument fight but not being able to fall it off and leave eachother..I guess the rocka ride continues .

Please allow for some impertinence on my part. I certainly do not medan ANY disrespect to either the US or Chinese members of these boards.

[Neal5x5]

Chinese demographics will present an unusual problem in the next decade and more. Although China has a massive population, due to the One Child policy it will not have as great an increase in the future, and possibly experience an actual reduction in population (something rare in modern history). For an agricultural society, slow population growth is manageable, but for a consumer based society it presents challenges without a continually expanding market. Granted, the international market is currently meeting thier needs, but in a recession or an environment of market protectionism, that becomes much more difficult.

Of course, on a Twilight 2013 note, the "Bachelore Wars" are another issue. The male/female ratio in China is well out of whack thanks to the One Child rule. There are a lot of young men who will face a difficult time getting a wife, something that has historically led to civil strife.

None of these problems are a death sentence, but they won't go away by themselves and they compound any issues that arise.

[DigTw0Grav3s]

A couple thoughts, divided by power category.

Economically, China is not the powerhouse that most make it out to be. We're talking about totally black box accounting, here. They claim near-maximum industrial output every year, but the power consumption statistics simply don't back that up. Same story with financing. Owning a significant percentage of U.S. debt is great for them in a strategic sense, but that's not a debt that they can simply call at any time. Debt between sovereign states doesn't work that way. They've also admitted to recessionary conditions domestically, which says a lot considering the sanitizing that usually goes into their press releases.

In terms of military capabilities, they are certainly developing quickly. That said, they are reminiscent of pre-war Germany in a lot of ways. You can only develop your forces so aggressively before other nations begin to coalesce against you. Look at the current situation; Japan is talking about becoming an independent military power again. New basing may open up to U.S. carrier groups for the first time since World War II. Australia is basing a MEF. Asia is scared, and that doesn't bode well for a nation with a military mostly stuck in in the 1950s, both technologically and culturally.

Culturally, well.. how many Chinese pop stars do you know How about television hits Films Celebrities Central economic planning and totalitarianism are both antithetical to cultural exchange. As is scaring the hell out of your neighbors.

The technology transfer and cyber-espionage do scare me a lot, though. If anything, that will be the factor that bites the West (free world) in the ass.

[enrious]

Given that Japan owes just as much US debt as does China, I'm not terribly concerned with that - especially since it further intertwines our economies, meaning that China will cut its own throat if it tries to take out the US economy.

Funny how no one mentions that when they mention China's ownership of US debt.

As for the rest..."This is it, it's all over!" has likely been uttered by Ook the caveman and y'know...we are still around.

We have better health care, technology, ethics & morals, food, and leisure than at any time in the history of the planet.

I'm good.

[pmulcahy11b]

China's rise scares the hell out of me. Some aspects of American society, culture and politics do disturb me but Australia and America have far more in common than not and I'm far, far more comfortable with America being the dominant world power than China. I guess the majority of my fellow Aussies feel the same because we've allied ourselves lock, stock and barrel with the USA.

I'm not really very afraid about an outside power taking us over, or even of our credit-holders calling in our debts. I am, however, almost deathly afraid of what our own politicians are doing -- look at the current "fiscal cliff" we're facing, and how both sides are quite willing to let the car go over the cliff so they don't have to compromise, give in, or satisfy their rich buddies.

Dangers from without I'm not that concerned about that. Dangers from within That may go as far as to destroy the country. Our democracy has almost completely become a plutocracy.

[Targan]

We have better health care, technology, ethics & morals, food, and leisure than at any time in the history of the planet.

I agree completely with the rest of your post but the above quote is pretty sweeping. When you say "we have" do you mean the USA The "western world" The world in general

"Better healthcare" is true but don't you have a situation in the US (which as I understand it Obamacare tries to ameliorate) where if you are in a lower socio-economic grouping your healthcare choices are somewhere between very restricted and non-existant. So that's really "better healthcare for those with money".

I can't argue with "better technology" but once again there's an element of better technology for those that can afford it. Then there's economic pressure in a whole host of technology fields which can slow the uptake of or largely prevent better technology being rolled out. Look at the use of fossil fuels. We know the harm caused by their use. We know they are finite. For a long time we've had the technology to largely replace their use in many areas. Yet here we are, burning through our ever-diminishing stocks as fast as we can. And the turning of technology into usable items is in the hands of the technical classes. Large numbers of westerners wouldn't have a clue how most of their high tech items work and they'll happily use whatever gadgets they can afford, all the while living in an anti-science fairy tale world where they think there were dinosaurs on Noah's Ark and that the world (and the universe for that matter) was created 6,000 years ago.

"Ethics and morals" Woah, that's hugely subjective. Most modern, western societies share many ethics and morals but there are some pretty big differences, too. I don't know if "better" is an easy label to use when it comes to ethics and morals. I mean, some people consider the issue of state-sanctioned killing to be a moral issue, and look upon China and many US states as being amoral in that area for that reason. And most of us westerners look upon Sharia law with disgust, but those who practice it look upon the rest of us as barbarians and unbelievers who will surely be going to hell.

"Food and leisure" is another area where the who is "we" question is very important. In general I wouldn't agree. In my country and in the USA, people from lower socio-economic backgrounds tend to eat very poorly. Sure they have access to lots af food but in many cases it's really nasty stuff in terms of long-term health. Even those of us firmly middle-class and higher don't necessarily have access to the best foods. Factory farming, pesticides, food processing, these aren't the makings of the best nutrition. I'd say that in many cases foods were better for us in the middle of the last century. And of course people at the bottom, socio-economically speaking, often just can't access enough calories at all. As for leisure, ever-increasing numbers of westerners watch TV and play video games as a major component of their leisure time. Is that "better" I think not. Certainly not better for their health.

[Webstral]

Dangers from without I'm not that concerned about that. Dangers from within That may go as far as to destroy the country. Our democracy has almost completely become a plutocracy.

No nation can be destroyed from without until it has been destroyed from within. I can't remember where I read that idea or if I have the quote right, but one gets the gist. Rome fell in part because the economy failed. Too few people owned virtually everything and managed to get their holdings exempted from taxes (sound familiar). Population growth went into the tank because the economics of having children were so very unfavorable. There weren't enough young men for the army, and the treasury was short on funds for equipping them. Whether Rome could have withstood the waves of barbarians trying to enter its territory had the economy and manpower situation been better is an open question. However, the fact remains that Rome's ability to withstand stressors from without weakened at the same time that stressors from without were strengthening.

France was destroyed by internal divisions as much as anything the Germans did on the battlefield in 1940 (or before, since short wars reflect preparation). The Red Army might have given a better account of itself in 1941 had Stalin not purged its leadership. Thankfully, they were able to learn something from their experience in Finland. One could even say that the American experience in Vietnam reflects the hazards of internal divisions. The US could neither commit nor withdraw. The US could neither succeed with the tools at hand nor adapt sufficiently to use different tools. (In a few years, we may be writing the same things about the American experience in Afghanistan, for which we cannot blame the triple canopy rain forest.)

[RN7]

But the US is a [relatively] free market capitalist economy. The Chinese dont have to be capitalists to welcome foreign investment warmly. When it suits them, they have the option of nationalizing foreign-owned assets in the PRC.

I think any country has the power to nationalise foreign-owned assets if it wants to. And China could nationalise any foreign owned factory (although I think the Chinese retain 51% ownership of all or most foreign enterprises in China), but the problem would be who would they export all those snazzy gadgets to. The high value export factories produce brands that are in demand in the developed world. China doesn't have any brands of its own that any body wants and they cant export and sell copies of these brands outside of China.

This has not prevented American business from investing heavily; nor has the loss of manufacturing inspired the US to place additional duties on imports from China; nor has the staggering trade imbalance inspired anything meaningful in the way of reforms. Why We are dedicated free market capitalists. The Chinese are simply exploiting the situation. They could be eating baby legs and the capitalists would continue to invest and demand low tariffs so long as there was money to be made.

That's part of the problem. All multinational corporations are making enormous profits out of assembling stuff in China due to the low labour costs, non-existant labour and health and environmental laws and artificially low value of the Chinese Yuan. Corporate lobyists and donations have a huge influence on politicians in America or elsewhere, and despite the occasional knee jerk reaction to keep the voters in traditional industrial cities and states happy who have lost a huge amount of manufacturing jobs to China, none have the courage or conviction to much about. There is to much money and profits involved to rock the boat.

[RN7]

How to come with the increasingly harsh divides economically in China Today You have a large class of people some 150 million strong that enjoy a comparatively high standard of living, on par with many western countries. They have education to international levels and probably hold views similar to their Peers in other countries. Still a large rural population live in somewhat poor conditions with little possibility for social movement upwards.

China is a communist country there is only one class the Working Class. However the communist government has tried to create a middle class of consumers who have become well educated. But it doesn't give them any say in the running of the country, and certainly doesn't want to know their views because they certainly don't want to live in a communist country.