Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[adimar]

It's the old argument, would the Russians want to lose Moscow for Kiev Leningrad for Kherson

Actually If I were in the Ukrainian drive seat I wouldn't use the nuke on Russian soil. That would be a prelude to opening the gates of hell. I would use it on my own soil where the invading Russian troops are concentrated (and coincidentally quite a lot of my undesirable ethnic Russian civilians)...
(note that this only applies to the first nuke, after that....)

I think this teaches one thing, perhaps you can count on some friends but when you cannot count on them or they can't help you, you got to take care of yourself.

Yep. Any treaty is only a piece of paper.
That's why the contrast between Obama's betrayal of Mubarak (Egypt) and Putin's support of Assad (Syria) resonates so loudly.

Adi

[Olefin]

got to love Putin's timing on the ICBM test as well - sure sure it had nothing to do with the Ukraine

just how stupid does he think we are

and the longer this goes on the madder the Ukranians are getting - if a Russian does something stupid and actually shoots a Ukranian soldier its going to be a bloodbath quickly

[kalos72]

What else is funny (not really but) is how Putin can say "we have no Russian troops on the ground" but then turn around and say "We have the right to defend our Russia comrades in Crimea from attacks" in the same breath.

I say send a US transport to Crimea and see what the Russian do...if they arent Russian Fed troops we can kill them right

Not really but it would be very telling and force Putins hand...

[stormlion1]

Actually an option is to call Putins bluff of there being no Russian troops on the ground in the Crimea by arming the populace and letting them take pot shots at the unmarked troops. Kill a few and see if Putin changes his story.

[Targan]

Actually an option is to call Putins bluff of there being no Russian troops on the ground in the Crimea by arming the populace and letting them take pot shots at the unmarked troops. Kill a few and see if Putin changes his story.

This is similar to a line of thinking I had last night while watching news footage of Russian troops trying to intimidate a group of unarmed Ukrainian Airforce personnel. The Ukrainians returned to barracks after the Russian troops allowed a bunch of balaclava-wearing, rag-tag uniformed pro-Russian militiamen to turn up. The Ukreainians (wisely) recognised it as a deliberate provocatiuon and withdrew.

Under international law an occupying force is legally obliged to keep law and order. That certainly doesn't mean that it's ok to let a bunch of private citizens form their own armed unregulated militia groups and start pushing their weight around (unless that's an ok thing to do under Ukrainian domestic law). If I were the Ukrainians I'd be arguing that the occupying forces are totally in breach of their obligations to keep the populace safe. Then again, that's probably the least of their problems in terms of the blatant illegality of what the Russians are doing.

I have two very separate minds watching all of this. My logical, knowledgeable mind considers the history of the area and the unfolding machinations and makes predictions on the outcomes. My passionate, emotive mind is screaming on the inside of my skull that the Russians deserve to have their arses handed to them.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Hmm, unidentified but obviously pro-Russian militias allowed to operate in Crimea without interference from Russian troops... sounds just like the Russian invasion of Georgia all over again (although the Georgians were not entirely without blame in the start of that war).

[stormlion1]

All is not well in Russian media land.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/russia-today-anchor-quits-live-air-russian-invasion-ukraine-article-1.1712043

[stormlion1]

Interesting little bit of news. The Russians have sunk three ships to block the Ukrainian Naval base inside Lake Donuzlav to keep ships there bottled up. Two smaller ships and a old Kara Class Cruiser. Then sent a Russian Admiral to the Ukrainian Naval Bases front gate to try to convince them to switch sides.

[Adm.Lee]

Interesting little bit of news. The Russians ... Then sent a Russian Admiral to the Ukrainian Naval Bases front gate to try to convince them to switch sides.

Apparently, there are several places where the Ukrainian forces are staying in barracks, not surrendering their weapons, not switching sides when invited. They are staying put and not rising to any provocations. Their leaders have to know that any violence on their part will be: a) met with ready and overwhelming force, and b) just the excuse of, "extremist hooligan terrorist violence by an illegal rebel force" that the Russians are looking for. One loose shot, and they get the casus belli to invade and overrun the whole country, at least the eastern, pro-Russian third as well as Crimea.

This has been going on over a week, and no private has stepped out of line, no hothead lieutenant has pulled a pistol, nothing. The discipline is amazing.

I don't know if I'm being cynical or starry-eyed, but I wanna put those guys up for the Nobel Peace Prize.