Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[stormlion1]

What I see is internal conflict in the region no matter how it turns out. IED's and terrorist attacks starting up with factions calling for a Russian pullout.

[pmulcahy11b]

See my comment in the "Dust off your books..." thread.

[Rainbow Six]

I agree completely. Like I said earlier, Putin was a Colonel in the KGB. He'll have detailed contingency plans for hundreds of situations like that in the Ukraine covering dozens of nations that Russia has an "interest" in.

The situation in Crimea is going in pretty much exactly the direction I thought it would. When the Crimean parliament has its vote at the same time that the Ukraine holds its new presidential election, the Russians will get the political "legitimacy" they seek for their Crimean land grab.

I'm sure there'll be lots of criticism of political leaders in Europe and North America in the coming weeks and months for not taking stronger action against Russia but I think most of it will be for partisan reasons rather than constructive. By taking military action against Russia, any NATO country would be at extreme risk of things spiralling completely out of control. Does anyone here think the principal of protecting the Ukraine's sovereignty is worth kicking off WWIII Actually I think principals like that ARE sometimes worth great sacrifices but the risk/reward ratio seems pretty extreme in this case.

Targan, once again in this thread I agree completely with everything that you've said. Of course Putin and the Russian Government know what they are doing and are implementing plans that have been in place for some time. That is the very nature of contingency planning and frankly they wouldn't be a very good Government if they didn't make such plans. I'm sure other Governments around the World have plans for all manner of scenarios.

And has already been said in this thread, no Government, whether in the US or Europe is going to do anything particularly tangible because no one wants to spark World War 3. I'm sure those leaders will be criticised for "sitting on their hands" but as you say, such criticism is likely to be done purely to score political points. I wonder if the critics would prefer it if their leaders actually did start a World War Suggestions that European countries should somehow be solely responsible for sending their troops to defend Ukraine aren't particularly helpful either.

[stormlion1]

The European Country's aren't even interested in doing something but complaining and wringing there hands. Its all they will ever do until the Russians move west. The Crimea is a out of the way location and shares no borders with Europe. Its a spot on the map. Now if Putin moved into Poland I could see a mobilization but not for the Crimea.

[Rainbow Six]

The European Country's aren't even interested in doing something but complaining and wringing there hands..

I don't see much different coming from anywhere else (speaking as a European).

[kato13]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

It looks like this was never submitted to the US Senate for ratification, so it literally in nothing more than guideline. I'm very surprised that the Ukraine relinquished their weapons stocks without that pretty important detail being completed.

[stormlion1]

Which is why the Russians will succeed in the Crimea. No one will do anything but wring there hands and cry fowl. But the Russians are closer to Europe then the US so I would assume they would be a bit more interested in dealing with the problem then talking about it, or asking for US help to deal with it.

[Rainbow Six]

My position on this has never changed - Putin knows where the red lines are and how far he can push things and still get away with it and if they want to annex the Crimea they will be successful, just like they were in Georgia six years ago. Because the only way anyone is going to stop them is by going to War with them and I don't think any NATO member anywhere (or anyone else for that matter) is willing to do that over the Ukraine (and I really don't understand those that seem to be advocating that any NATO member should be preparing for war, either individually or collectively or singling out specific regions as somehow being at fault or not doing enough). Not really much more I can add...

[Targan]

Ukraine's navy chief has switched allegiance to the pro-Russian authorities of the flashpoint peninsula of Crimea, a day after he was appointed to the post by interim leader Oleksandr Turchynov.

In a televised statement from inside the Crimean headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Denis Berezovsky swore to execute the orders of the pro-Russia commander-in-chief of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and its residents.

Treason. A certain someone should be standing in front of a firing squad.

Witnesses said Russian soldiers had blocked about 400 Ukrainian marines at a base in the eastern port city of Feodosiya and were calling on them to surrender and give up their arms.

Ukraine's defence ministry said 1000 armed fighters and 20 trucks were also blocking the entrance to a border guard unit in the southern Crimean town of Perevalne.

I really hope their officers and NCOs hold it together and refuse to surrender.

[stormlion1]

Those troops are waiting for relief to come in from the Ukraine. Its a race to see which shows up first, that relief or Russian Heavy Gear to come in and batter down the gates.

[RN7]

Which is why the Russians will succeed in the Crimea. No one will do anything but wring there hands and cry fowl. But the Russians are closer to Europe then the US so I would assume they would be a bit more interested in dealing with the problem then talking about it, or asking for US help to deal with it.

Does anybody really think that the Pentagon, NATO, the EU or the UN has a contingency plan for military intervention in the Ukraine against the Russians

This is not Saddam Hussein or another tin pot dictator bullying it's smaller neighbour. This is Russia, a vast country armed to the teeth with all sorts of sophisticated weaponry including a huge strategic nuclear arsenal. And they also have a legitimate grievance about protecting their national interests in the Ukraine, mainly as a lot of Russians live their and the Crimea has traditionally been part of Russia.

What do you think that Europe could do to make a country with an armed forces the size of Russia to withdraw from the Crimea The answer is absolutely nothing outside of economic sanctions, and the Russians could also retaliate by cutting off the gas supply to Europe. Even America can do nothing because Russia hold all the geographical and logistical advantages. No US general or military advisor would advocate taking on the Russians anywhere yet alone in their own back yard. If you launch a Tomahawk cruise missile on Russian territory you could get an ICBM launched back at you.

[kalos72]

This is nothing but a bully taking what he wants...and all of us are too scared to do anything about it.

All this because, "People of Russian decent live there" Russia gave Crimea away in 1954...

I would sanction the shit out of this guy...sell arms to the Ukraine....loan them 150B...whatever it took.

We let them take parts of Georgia...if we are this "World Makers" like our politicians like to dream of at night or current policy of "non action" is sad...

This pisses me off....

[RN7]

This is nothing but a bully taking what he wants...and all of us are too scared to do anything about it.

All this because, "People of Russian decent live there" Russia gave Crimea away in 1954...

I would sanction the shit out of this guy...sell arms to the Ukraine....loan them 150B...whatever it took.

We let them take parts of Georgia...if we are this "World Makers" like our politicians like to dream of at night or current policy of "non action" is sad...

This pisses me off....

Unfortunately there is nothing that anyone can do to make Russia withdraw from the Crimea, or the Eastern Ukraine if it sends its forces into it other than engaging Putin in sensitive diplomacy.

The Russians don't think the same way about democracy and the end of the Cold War that westerners do. They feel humiliated by losing the Cold War and watching their former allies join NATO. The Ukraine is far to close to home and to their own culture and history for Russians to let go off, and is the final line in the sand for them. They wont back down.

If you sanction the Russians they will cut off the gas supply to Europe, and sell nuclear technology to Iran and North Korea. If you politically isolate a country like Russia it will start breaking every arms treaty it has signed since the end of the Cold War. It will also probably start to revert to its old ways and may start taking back all of the old Soviet Union and will cosy up with China.

[kalos72]

Where is RR when you need him...

[raketenjagdpanzer]

I hope this turns into another humiliation for Russia. It won't; but I hope it does.