OT? A New Cold War

[stormlion1]

The preference I think Putin has is of the Balkans coming under the sway of Russia economically. Ukraine had been moving away from Russia so he started what is going on there now. But I think he will be happy if they stay a buffer state with the economic ties closer ties to Russia than the west. If they move to far he will move militarily in such a way that the Balkan states will be under Russian sway permanently or undesirable to the West.

[Schone23666]

The preference I think Putin has is of the Balkans coming under the sway of Russia economically. Ukraine had been moving away from Russia so he started what is going on there now. But I think he will be happy if they stay a buffer state with the economic ties closer ties to Russia than the west. If they move to far he will move militarily in such a way that the Balkan states will be under Russian sway permanently or undesirable to the West.

As Clausewitz said, "War is a continuation of politics by other means..."

[Medic]

Now this is slightly off off topic, but would anyone be interested in writing the next Twilight future with me from the current situation onward The most probable avenue of approach is taking the Ukraine situation forward, then escalating a conflict with the Baltic countries at some point (though possibly throwing in some conflict or two in the mix between the two). Finland would most likely be on the list, if not fully, then partially.

[Raellus]

Now this is slightly off off topic, but would anyone be interested in writing the next Twilight future with me from the current situation onward The most probable avenue of approach is taking the Ukraine situation forward, then escalating a conflict with the Baltic countries at some point (though possibly throwing in some conflict or two in the mix between the two). Finland would most likely be on the list, if not fully, then partially.

Rainbow 6 and I have already put together a fairly fleshed-out outline of how WWIII in Europe and Asia will start. We're tentatively calling it Twilight 2030. We haven't posted much yet, but I hope to have some time to get back to it this summer. Once a few finishing touches are put on it, we'll share it here.

[Raellus]

This article seems to suggest an intermidiate state, somewhere between non-alignment and full NATO membership, for Finland in the near future.

http://news.yahoo.com/nordic-nations-agree-defense-cooperation-against-russia-213417125--finance.html

This one is broader in scope, with some new insights into Russia's current goals and strategy.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/04/09/russias-round-2-a-new-conflict-in-eastern-europe

[Schone23666]

Another interesting development....this one from Germany.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32257543

[stormlion1]

I look at a Leopard II and all I see is that shot trap.

[Webstral]

I'll trust that some of the best engineers in the world with a good deal of institutional experience designing tanks know what they are doing until evidence to the contrary comes in.

The Ukraine may be a lost cause. We might have been able to do something if Ukraine had been included in NATO. The decision was made not to go this route. I'm not in a position to say whether this was the right decision. I can say that without NATO membership, Ukraine is very far forward. Even with NATO membership, Ukraine would require a major standing force with equally major stocks in place to defend against a significant Russian effort. Such a major force might elicit exactly the kind of response the West has been trying to avoid all along. Russia is looking a short distance down the road at an existential crisis. Ukraine is important to Russia in a way she cannot be important to the US. We have to ask very seriously if we are going to put the mortgage money on the table given the weak hand we have at that distance from friendly territory and the low value of the pot to us.

[Askold]

Another interesting development....this one from Germany.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32257543

I am not surprised. Germany really let their military deteriorate and there have been embarrassing incidents in the news already as their lack of equipment, vehicles and weapons is apparent.

They have really good equipment available but simply do not have enough and since they are in a hurry to put the gear back in order bringing out the mothballed tanks seems like a good idea. (Although these presumably are older versions and they already have better LEO2 tanks available as well. It is just that building new tanks takes more time and money.)

[stormlion1]

I have a feeling the various European country's are ramping up what production they have and preparing to buy what they can from overseas. The embarrassment during the one exercise where they had broomsticks in place instead of Machine Guns shows how unprepared the Germans are at the moment. I doubt many of the other countrys are in better shape.

They depended too much on the US the last few decades and are paying for it now.

[Schone23666]

Another one, from Germany. Interesting that the German Left Party (which includes several "former" East German Communists) is demanding that the G8 be reassembled when the German Foreign Minister seems to be echoing sentiments that they'd rather stick with the G7 for now.

What was it that Webstral mentioned earlier about "useful fools"...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/12/us-g7-germany-russia-idUSKBN0N30DK20150412

[rcaf_777]

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-in-non-combat-role-1.2321894

One step closer to the end game

[Webstral]

If Canada is on board, at least we can say we're backing the right horse. Whether we should be backing that horse or not is an open question. Still, since we appear to have decided on the fact of the backing if not how much money we're willing to stake on the race, it's good to know that Canada thinks this is the right horse to back. If things do go hot, it will be good for NATO morale to see the troops of 1/Lady Chatterly's Own Mounties standing shoulder-to-shoulder with 2/69 Cavalry.

[Raellus]

Seems like a bit of an escalation. I don't see this going anywhere scary but I suppose it could.

http://news.yahoo.com/finnish-military-fires-suspected-submarine-baltic-140551985.html

[Schone23666]

Seems like a bit of an escalation. I don't see this going anywhere scary but I suppose it could.

http://news.yahoo.com/finnish-milita...140551985.html

See....it's events like this that begin to disturb me. Playing peek-a-boo with foreign submarines possibly prowling around near or in territorial waters is one thing....but firing warning shots That definitely sounds a bit like escalation to me.

Still, no harm done apparently. But if, say, those "warning shots" were to come to close and actually strike a vessel or submarine, that's when things begin to really escalate.