Turks shoot down a Russia Su-24

[Olefin]

http://news.yahoo.com/report-turkey-shoots-down-warplane-over-airspace-intrusion-081734904.html#

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/24/middleeast/warplane-crashes-near-syria-turkey-border/index.html

Figured it would be the Turks who would do the first shoot down

[Schone23666]

Had a feeling something like this would happen, sooner or later. Too many damned players involved in this game already: U.S., Canada (though Canada's withdrawing their aircraft), France, Iran, Russia, Turkey, Iraqi Sunnis, Iraqi Shiites, Syrian Assad loyalists, Syrian rebels (a multitude plethora of splintered factions), Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Hezbollah....not to mention the increasing number of backers that are bankrolling one faction or another, the Gulf States among them....

Hard to tell where this will go. If it just becomes another "incident" with a lot of shouting between diplomats and grist for the political commentators, then it's just par for the course with that shitty region of the world. If it starts leading to other "incidents" though, especially if Putin decides to trump this up as a provocation by NATO Then I would be especially worried, a lot.

[Olefin]

Oh I can see a Russian jet "accidentally" shooting down a Turkish F-16 as payback

[Schone23666]

Oh I can see a Russian jet "accidentally" shooting down a Turkish F-16 as payback

And I can see the Turks reciprocating in kind, shooting down another not one, but TWO Russian SU-24's or SU-25's, or maybe something meatier It's all a matter of how far you want to keep pushing buttons...

[Olefin]

I always thought a Turkish Russian start to any Twilight War scenario was a possibility - neither of them like each other and have grudges that go back 600 years or more - and Russia still wants warm water ports and free access to the Med

[Anna Elizabeth]

Sometimes it just feels like Deja Vu. I'm wondering if the true objectives here aren't to get back to the "stability" of the original Cold War/Proxy War times of the fun-lovin' 80s

[lordroel]

Has it ever happen before that a NATO country shoot down a Soviet or Russian fighter aircraft in the past.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Has it ever happen before that a NATO country shoot down a Soviet or Russian fighter aircraft in the past.

I found a listing of shootdowns during the Cold War. The list excludes the Korean and Vietnam wars: http://www.silent-warriors.com/shootdown_list.html

[Schone23666]

F**k it, instead of "Twilight 2013", they should've come out with "Twilight: 2015" at this rate.

[Jason Weiser]

A friend of mine (no, I will not say whom), has informed me that this has gotten worse.

1) Both aircrew ejected clean, then were captured and killed by Turkish backed Syrian rebels.

2) The Russian CSAR bird was fired on by a TOW. No word on if the chopper was hit or not.

In short, this smells like a deliberate ambush. I think the Turks knew the Russians used this route for egress from hitting targets deeper in Syria. The Turks had warned the Russians before, so they shot down the a/c, figuring the rebels would capture the aircrew and hold them for an appropriate ransom...

Then the idiots went and killed them...then fired on the CSAR chopper. Yeah, this is just getting better and better...eh I suspect there will be an escort for all Russian strikes from now on...and there might be a dogfight between the Russians and the Turks not long after that. Where things go from there Who the hell knows.

My advice though Check your preps, and make damn sure they are close to hand...I got a bad feeling about this.

[rcaf_777]

thanks but I think I will trust my sources instead, if you want to fear monger go right ahead.

[Anna Elizabeth]

Guys, I'm not intending dis-respect, but these things aren't all that new. I truly do *not* believe one downed Fighter-bomber is going to lead to a nuclear war.

I grew up in the 80s, we used to watch GSFG in grainy news footage during our Sunday meal. KAL007. USS Vincennes shoot down of an Iranian airliner.

I'm betting that we'll hear a lot of saber-rattling, maybe a shootdown of a Turk jet, and then The Russians will order new Sukhoi-30s to replace obsolete Su-24s. The Turks will ramp up orders for F-35s, leading the rest of NATO to follow. The GOPer candidates will vent a lot of verbal flatulence about "defense", jaw about re-opening the production line for F-22s, the MIC will get richer, and life will go on.

[Rainbow Six]

A friend of mine (no, I will not say whom), has informed me that this has gotten worse.

1) Both aircrew ejected clean, then were captured and killed by Turkish backed Syrian rebels.

2) The Russian CSAR bird was fired on by a TOW. No word on if the chopper was hit or not.

To be fair, none of this is particularly breaking news and / or classified. The BBC were reporting over three hours ago that rebels had killed both pilots after they ejected and I've just watched footage of the helicopter being hit by a missile on the 6pm news (Sky News specifically if anyone wants to watch it). The Russian Defence Ministry have confirmed that one person was killed in the helo strike.

Guys, I'm not intending dis-respect, but these things aren't all that new. I truly do *not* believe one downed Fighter-bomber is going to lead to a nuclear war.

Agreed.

[Raellus]

I hope that this doesn't escalate.

Putin's got a pretty solid track record of brinksmanship and unilateral action, often military, to protect Russian interests and pride.

I pray that cooler heads prevail.

EDIT: I just watched the video of the Turkmen Brigade blowing up the alleged rescue chopper with a TOW missile. Two things stand out. First, the heli was on the ground and its rotors weren't spinning at all. That seems odd to me. Second, the U.S. vetted and supplied this particular insurgent group TOW missiles, making it an accomplice to the destruction. This is worrying.

[Schone23666]

I hope that this doesn't escalate.

Putin's got a pretty solid track record of brinksmanship and unilateral action, often military, to protect Russian interests and pride.

I pray that cooler heads prevail.

EDIT: I just watched the video of the Turkmen Brigade blowing up the alleged rescue chopper with a TOW missile. Two things stand out. First, the heli was on the ground and its rotors weren't spinning at all. That seems odd to me. Second, the U.S. vetted and supplied this particular insurgent group TOW missiles, making it an accomplice to the destruction. This is worrying.

This is the potential problem at hand. Putin in the eyes of the West is difficult to predict (which being a former agent of the KGB, is no surprise). He plays games of brinkmanship that so far, could be argued has won more than lost in his favor. Russia has successfully knocked down Georgia, taken the Crimea, re-established itself as a player in the Middle East by buttressing Assad's regime, etc. So far, the West's response has been, in the eyes of Moscow, rather divided and tepid at best (yes, I know, it's far more complicated, but I digress). Yes, the sanctions have taken a toll, but if Putin is able to spin the sanctions as proof that the West is out to get Russia and only Putin and Russian nationalism can stand up to Western decadence, what does he have to lose

With all due respect to some of the comments posted here in response to Jason's post, I don't think it's fear mongering at all to point out that Moscow likely will not be happy about this. Will it lead to nuclear war or Turkey declaring Article V No, I doubt it, at least for now. Could it lead to other "incidents" that could lead to a larger regional conflict that NATO is unprepared for due to most of the NATO members having at best miniscule defense budgets Possibly. It all depends on what happens at both the top and on the ground, and the problem here is that there are so many variable factors at play with so many actors in this region makes it difficult to predict. NATO has already stated they stand by Turkey's decision, and the images of the rebels blowing up a Russian Hind (The Hind apparently was blown up AFTER it was forced to the ground by rebel AAA fire) with an American-manufactured TOW missile likely is just the sort of images Putin is going to use to stir the Russian public into a nationalistic frenzy.

"See! The decadent American Nazis REALLY are out to smother Russian comrades under their jackboots, by using Western weapons supplied to their Islamist toadies!"