On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[Homer]

In v1 canon, INF wasn't written in. Do you see the GLCM force dispersing from Molesworth and Greenham after the strike on Mildenhall Or would they stay I the GAMA I'd assume the hardened 3d Air Force Command Post was hit unless it was a fluke and they caught them on the ramp by SILK PURSE. Or maybe they got really lucky and hit the Galaxy Club at lunch...

[Ewan]

January 11, 1997

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NATO launches Operation Thundercloud - coordinated pre-dawn landings by the British 6th Airmobile Brigade, East German 40th Air Assault Brigade and the West German 26th Luftlande Brigade to seize bridgeheads over the Oder and Niesse Rivers, opposite Frankfurt-on-Oder, Gubin and Gorlitz, taking advantage of the disarray within the Polish Army.

The 6th Airmobile Brigade is certainly seeing a lot of action (see also 15th December 1996)

[chico20854]

January 12, 1997

The 43rd Infantry Division HQ is formed at Ft Devens, MA, taking command of 187th & 205th Infantry Brigades and the 218th Infantry Brigade (Mech) (all USAR).

Unofficial:

At the Pentagon, the Army staff announces a major change in plans as a result of the increased goegrahic size of Germany and ongoing conflict in Iran and Korea - instead of corps having command of a number of independent Reserve Component brigades, those brigades will instead be formed into divisions, using ARCOMs (Army Reserve Commands) and STARCs (State National Guard headquarters) as kernels of the divisional headquarters. Additional ARCOMs will be converted to corps headquarters.

The Freedom ship North Carolina Freedom is delivered in New Orleans, where it begins loading ammunition and replacement vehicles shipped from the Mississippi valley and the Red River Army Depot.

The Coast Guard interviews the crew of tug boat Janet Pommet, who indicate that the hijackers spoke a Slavic language and slipped away in a raft heading to Mexican waters.

Lt. Gen. Denise Alcort , XO of USAF Europe, assumes command while Lt. Gen. Carol Allby assumes command of 3rd Air Force.

Pacific Fleet launches Operation Iron Claw - At dusk, major air raids take off, targetting North Korean naval facilities in the Sea of Japan from the carriers Vinson, Constellation & Abraham Lincoln.

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The bridgeheads established by the prior day's airborne landings in Poland are subject to furious counterattack as both sides rush reinforcements and fire support to the areas, intent on establishing them (for NATO) and wiping them out (for the Pact).

The Polish Communist Party orders disloyal officers to be expelled from the Party and shot; enlisted personnel who rose up are to be demoted to private and sent to the front as motor-riflemen.

On the Kola Peninsula, US troops from the US 10th Mountain Division's 2nd Battalion, 22nd Infantry link up with Norwegian troops of the Vestoppland Infanteri Regiment, part of 6th Divisions 6th Brigade, along the railroad line west of Luostari, completing the encirclement of Nikel and its garrison.

Community leaders in Cyprus issue additional calls for calm; thousands turn out in rallies for unity. After dark fires return to the cities.

The 112th Tactical Fighter Wing (Pennsylvania Air National Guard) begins flying sorties in support of Jugoslav and Romanian troops in northwestern Romania from its deployment location in Tuzla, Jugoslavia.

The 113th Field Artillery Brigade (NC National Guard) completes unloading of its equipment in Bremerhaven and is released to 7th Army for deployment.

The officers of 1st Squadron, 278th ACR's advanced party are relieved of duty following the previous night's "night on the town" in search of whores, beer and the offerings of Amsterdam's famous coffee shops before going into combat.

A Soviet raider sinks the Liberian-flag general cargo carrier Navios Trader off West Africa.

The French government orders the immediate return of the naval transport Bougainville from supporting the nuclear test center in French Polynesia. The ship will be used to transport Ariane rockets to French Guiana.

[chico20854]

In v1 canon, INF wasnt written in. Do you see the GLCM force dispersing from Molesworth and Greenham after the strike on Mildenhall Or would they stay I the GAMA

I had the GLCM (and Pershing II!) force dispersing back in October, when the balloon went up in Germany, even though at the time it was "strictly an internal German matter" (that also involved implementing REFORGER and a general mobiliation). The two biggest GLCM issues were the wings stationed in Belgium and Italy, which relocated to western Germany and Gibraltar, respectively.

[chico20854]

The 6th Airmobile Brigade is certainly seeing a lot of action (see also 15th December 1996)

You probably not see them again for a few months, as they get some well-needed R&R. They are in better shape than the remnants of the British and American Berlin Brigades, however.

The Polish 6th Airborne is in pretty rough shape as well. And I don't have details worked out yet, but the Pact and German forces have been in three months of continuous action.

[Matt Wiser]

A note on carrier air wings: The A-6s would still be available: some from AMARC, and if Grumman had brains-and they usually did-they may have been building some for the Chinese. If the latter is the case, then those Intruders not delivered are going to the Navy or Marines, and the aircraft remain in production at Calverton (Long Island).

What's being produced at the Fairchild-Republic plants (the Farmingdale, Long Island one used to build F-105s and was involved with A-10 production, while the one at Hagerstown, MD also built A-10s)

[Olefin]

A note on carrier air wings: The A-6s would still be available: some from AMARC, and if Grumman had brains-and they usually did-they may have been building some for the Chinese. If the latter is the case, then those Intruders not delivered are going to the Navy or Marines, and the aircraft remain in production at Calverton (Long Island).

What's being produced at the Fairchild-Republic plants (the Farmingdale, Long Island one used to build F-105s and was involved with A-10 production, while the one at Hagerstown, MD also built A-10s)

Aircraft production was ended in Hagerstown, Maryland in 1984. The plants were still there but the question would be how long to set up the tooling again (which was in storage) and get back in production

[chico20854]

Aircraft production was ended in Hagerstown, Maryland in 1984. The plants were still there but the question would be how long to set up the tooling again (which was in storage) and get back in production

I have the plant reopening in 1993 for production of A-10Bs (what we know as the A-10 NAWS) for the South Korean 20th Fighter Wing, followed by an order for 100 from the USAF, those going to the 81st TFW in England (and then to Germany, where their additional avionics are very handy in the German winter weather!). When that order is done the still warm production line starts turning out aircraft for the Chinese.

[Olefin]

I have the plant reopening in 1993 for production of A-10Bs (what we know as the A-10 NAWS) for the South Korean 20th Fighter Wing, followed by an order for 100 from the USAF, those going to the 81st TFW in England (and then to Germany, where their additional avionics are very handy in the German winter weather!). When that order is done the still warm production line starts turning out aircraft for the Chinese.

Keep in mind the distance when you get to the TDM of Camp David to the Fairchild Republic plant in Hagerstown - only about 15 miles away - i.e. the EMP from the strike there most likely will severely affect operations even if the power somehow stays on

[chico20854]

Military aircraft production

I have US miltiary aircraft final assembly at the following locations:

AH-1 - Amarillo, TX
AH-64 - Mesa, AZ
A-6 - Calverton, NY (conversion of existing airframes in Greenville, MS)
A-7F - Dallas, TX (conversions)
A-10 - Hagerstown, MD
A-12 - Tulsa, OK
AV-8 - St. Louis, MO
B-2 - Palmdale, CA
Boeing Skyfox - Mojave, CA
C-17 - Long Beach, CA
C-21 - Tuscon, AZ and Wichita, KS
C-130 - Marietta, GA
CH-47 - Ridley Park, PA (D conversions in Olathe, KS)
CH-53 - Stratford, CT
CH-54 - Central Point, OR
E-2 - St Augustine, FL
EA-6 - Calverton, NY
F-14 - Calverton, NY
F-15 - St Louis, MO
F-16 - Ft Worth, TX
F/A-18 - St Louis, MO and Hawthorne, CA
F-20 - Savannah, GA and Wichita, KS
F-22 - Marietta, GA
HH-65 - Grand Prairie, TX
HU-25 - Little Rock, AR
KC-767 - Everett, WA
OH-6 - Long Beach, CA
OH-58 - Arlington, TX
P-7 - Burbank. CA
SH-2 - Bloomfield, CT
SH/UH-60 - Stratford, CT
T-45 - St Louis, MO
V-22 - Arlington, TX and Ridley Park, PA

The main aircraft plants I don't have producing anything for the military at the moment are the Boeing Renton and Boeing Field plants and the general aviation plants of Piper and Cessna. And I don't want to go down the rabbit hole of avionics plants, engine plants and component plants, except to note that all US aircraft production (and much of Airbus' production in Europe) relied on forgings from two facilities in North Grafton, Mass and in Cleveland, Ohio.

Let me know if there's something I missed!

[chico20854]

January 13, 1997

The 45th Infantry Division headquarters is formed at Ft Chaffee, AR, taking under command the 39th (AR), 45th (OK) and 53rd (FL NG) Infantry Brigades.

The Soviets decide to revive their flagging offensive in Iran, committing the 4th and 45th Armies. The 45th Army attacks from east of the Caspian Sea, overrunning the thin screen of Pasdaran troops still guarding the border with Turkmenistan. 4th Army advances down the coast road along the western Caspian coast, relieving elements of the 7th Guards Army from garrisoning Tehran.


Unofficially:

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The Battle of the Sea of Japan starts when the Soviet Kilo-class submarine B-470 spots the USS Vinson (lingering in the area after the prior days' raids on North Korean naval facilities, performing close air support strikes along the DMZ) and reports its location. Escorting helicopters, aircraft and ships sink the submarine before the Soviet air raids begin. Over the next two hours four waves of attackers approach (one of North Korean MiG-17s, one of Su-24s, one of Tu-16 Badger bombers and the last of supersonic Tu-22M Backfire bombers). The carriers' Combat Air Patrols deplete their missiles against the first several waves of attackers (which manage to disable a number of the escorting Aegis cruisers and destroyers), and the fighters are in the process of landing when the Backfire's missiles arrive, shielded by a wall of electronic interference that diminishes the range and effectiveness of the American's electronics. At the end of the day, the Constellation has been damaged and the Vinson and five escorts are sunk.

German attacks in northwest Poland intensify; The garrison of Szczecin (Soviet 21st Motor-Rifle Division, the Polish 12th Armored Division, 12th Border Guard Brigade, Szczecin Territorial Defense Brigade and an ad-hoc brigade formed from naval personnel) is hard pressed and local officials order evacuation of civilians from the city.

DEA agents in Ciudad Juarez conduct an illegal (from the Mexican perspective!) raid on safehouse, resulting in firefight that kills three agents and four suspects. A fifth suspect is taken alive - a starshina in the Soviet Army.

Army contracting officers place an order for CH-54 helicopters from the small Oregon company that bought the design and production rights; the first buy of CH-54s since 1972. The helicopters will sustain the Alaska National Guard aviation company assigned to the 172nd Infantry Brigade and equip additional units.

Contracts are also placed for additional initial training of military helicopter pilots (US and allied) with civilian flight schools across the South; the contract reqires the training to take place on the Robinson R44 light helicopter. This move lowers the burden on the US Army Aviation school at Fort Rucker, whose airspace and facilties were continually overcrowded.

The Freedom ship Wyoming Freedom is delivered in Galveston, TX.

Convoy 202, including the Idaho Freedom, arrives in Guam undamaged.

The Soviet sub Novosibirsk Komsomolets attacks the tanker Astoria Bay leaving the Mediterranean; the submarine successfully evades P-3s sent to locate it from Rota, Spain.

A second day of rallies for unity in Cyprus is disrupted by Greek youth. Rumors swirl that the Greeks are actually agents of the Greek National Intelligence Service. The rallies turn into anti-Greek riots, with 17 killed.

[cawest]

the RQ-5 went into production in 95 for A Company, 15th Military Intelligence Battalion was fully fielded before FY 96 (sep 95). i could see then being armed earlier. some MQ-1 were testing at Fort Huachuca in late 94

[Matt Wiser]

Existing A-6 airframes could be rewinged at two other locations to bring them up to SWIP standard (which, IRL, was the Navy's plan after the A-12 was canceled): NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk. They also did rewing work at Grumman's plant in St. Augustine, FL.

[chico20854]

January 14, 1997

nothing official today, but unofficially its a busy day!

Soviet aviation commander Marshall Kuzmenko meets with the Defense Council and Admiral Tulaev, commander of the the Soviet Navy, to discuss curtailing future bomber support to the Navy following the costly raids over the Sea of Japan the prior day, in which over half of the attacking aircraft did not return. He proposes that the USSR's remaining bombers re-orient towards 1) retention of intercontinental and regional nuclear strike capabilities, 2) a continuation of the strategic bombing campaign against China, 3) supporting Pact operations in the Balkans (and trying to knock isolated Turkey out of the war) and Iran and 4) supporting the war in the west; pointedly not including tangling with the US Navy. If American fleets once again approach the Soviet coast in the north, they will be met with bombers. His plan receives a cool reception, yet none can offer a meaningful alternative and consequently, over the next several weeks, Naval Aviation is stripped of many of its bombers.

A US National Security Council interagency discussion concludes that the Horizon, Texas ATACMS plant attack, San Diego tug sinking and Ciudad Juarez firefight are evidence that Soviet spetsnaz teams have crossed the Mexican border.

Convoy 202.1 departs Guam with three escorts, 26 cargo ships and the USNS Ponchatoula, headed for Pusan, Korea. Convoy 202.2 departs with 13 cargo ships, two escorts and a rescue ship, bound for Subic Bay, Phillipines.

German troops enter the outskirts of Szczecin.

SACEUR orders his J-4 (Logistics officer) to prepare a summary of the Alliance's supply levels on the Central Front.

On the Kola Peninsula, the 7th Guards Airborne breaks out of its encirclement, penetrating thin American lines and evacuating 5,000 troops.

The Soviet destroyer Buliny, under the command of Captain 2nd Rank Mikhail Mischenko, get its first kill, the Italian-flagged Jolly Smeraldo carrying vehicles of the 13th Corps Support Command.

The rioting in Cyprus continues. Nicosia burns and dozens are killed.

The Soviet 810th Naval Infantry Brigade arrives in the encircled port of Burgas, Bulgaria and moves to the front facing Turkish troops.

The first four (of 16 scheduled) widebody airliner flights carrying troops of 278 ACR depart Charleston, SC for Amsterdam-Schipol.

[chico20854]

Existing A-6 airframes could be rewinged at two other locations to bring them up to SWIP standard (which, IRL, was the Navy's plan after the A-12 was canceled): NADEP Alameda and NADEP Norfolk. They also did rewing work at Grumman's plant in St. Augustine, FL.

For the A-6, I have the following inventory numbers:

According to official Navy inventory numbers, there were 342 A-6s in the inventory in March 1988. I'm using an attrition rate of 1.5% per year, the rate the Navy used in the 80s for budget planning purposes for tactical aircraft. Consequently, 12 aircraft are purchased each year as attrition replacements from 1989-1995.

I have the Navy taking a dual-track approach with the delays in the A-12 program, converting 52 A-6s to A-6F annually until 1994, when the entire fleet has been converted. In 1996, with war on the horizon, the Navy receives 72 new production aircraft (72 being the maximum economic production rate, basically the rate that 2 shifts can turn out from existing equipment and suppliers without expanding the production base).

That gives an on-hand inventory of 487 aircraft (none are sold to the Chinese; the determination is made at some point that they are too sophisticated for the crews to make full use of). 308 are assigned to air wings (10 aircraft each on Coral Sea and Midway, 16 on each of the other carriers except Enterprise, which has the first A-12 squadron). The other 179 are in readiness squadrons, at Pax River and other test/evaluation sites or are in maintenance.

Overall losses in the Battle of the Norwegian Sea approached 50 percent, so of the 80 A-6s in the CVW's about 40 were lost. About that many were lost in the first two months of the war in the Pacific, eating up the entire output of the Calverton plant for the year. There isn't enough time for a second production line to be made operational (assuming that the suppliers could keep the flow of components coming) before the TDM.

I hope this helps! (I also have similar analysis for the remainder of the Navy/Marine Corps air fleet if you're interested, I'll be happy to share the spreadsheet!)