On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[bash]

A lot of the Mexico campaign as written suffers from "the map is not the territory" problem. The narrative of the campaign relies on looking at flat maps with highways and state borders and assuming the land is just as flat and featureless. The land of the Southwest is rarely flat and featureless. In fact the settlement patterns and placement of cities in the Southwest was basically determined by low altitude passes through mountain ranges and access to water.

Mexico invading southern Texas Yeah there's not a lot of movement-stopping geography. The Sonora Desert portion of Arizona and California Also makes sense. Invading up to Bakersfield Not a chance. A Boy Scout troop could secure the Techapi and Tejon passes into the Central Valley. The Mojave desert is a barely habitable moonscape, no stretched thin army is going to be holding it. Northern Arizona is likewise not a place an army with long supply lines in a resource-scarce setting could manage to hold. New Mexico has a couple valleys stretching north-south and holding those would be difficult as well.

A nuclear beleaguered US would have a hard time securing its southern border. So an invasion by Mexico could gain ground for sure. It's just not a friendly region without pumped in electricity, power, and food. A small invasion force would be hard pressed to maintain LOCs and make forward movement.

[Homer]

Yeah, but then again, I don't see Mexico going deep into Arizona Probably would not be a fun situation to be in.

Agreed. Much of Southern Arizona sucks to walk through, is questionable in a vehicle, and even can be questionable for rotary wing (Colorado can be worse, but try hot and high in a UH-1 or A model Blackhawk in AZ with fully kitted passengers). Maneuver on the high ground is the almost exclusive province of light or airmobile infantry and the flats provide ample IV lines and wadis that can be both obstacles and micro terrain cover (or be deadly in the monsoon).

Despite the oeallure of charging north into AZ, I think the most likely outcome is that both sides culminate short of a decisive engagement and are left with a security zone/no mans land between Nogales, AZ and South Tucson. The US is too weak/disputed to push south (and what do they really gain) and the Mexican Army lacks the combat power to push north and is content to maintain a oeLiberated Zone in the upper Santa Cruz River basin.

With the lack of aerial platforms, I could see both sides trying their hand at raiding using light forces infiltrated through the mountains. However, even that would probably die out as target sets are depleted through breakdown/lack of supply and capacity dwindles. Probably a bad time to be in green valley or sahuarita. Im thinking theyre probably rubble in the middle of no-mans land by the time things stabilize.

oeVictory for Mexico probably consists of dropping overpasses/bridges or cratering I-10 to say they cut it, and maybe some raids or bombardments of infrastructure (DMAFB as a symbolic target) before pulling back to the south with their effective FLOT just north of Nogales, AZ. oeVictory for the US is keeping control of Tucson, retaining the ability to extract resources as permitted, and being able to keep the remaining irrigation/farming/ranching base going to feed the populace and military. This is an area where both sides could easily say they oewon, while allowing things to dwindle as they focus on securing resources and maintaining internal security.

I wonder what Tucson would look like circa 2000-2001. Im thinking population would have moved close to the river or gone up into high ground like mount Lemmon or elsewhere in the Santa Catalinas where water is more available and temperatures are more moderate. Maybe dry land agriculture around the riparian areas to the east and west

[castlebravo92]

Agreed. Much of Southern Arizona sucks to walk through, is questionable in a vehicle, and even can be questionable for rotary wing (Colorado can be worse, but try hot and high in a UH-1 or A model Blackhawk in AZ with fully kitted passengers). Maneuver on the high ground is the almost exclusive province of light or airmobile infantry and the flats provide ample IV lines and wadis that can be both obstacles and micro terrain cover (or be deadly in the monsoon).

Despite the oeallure of charging north into AZ, I think the most likely outcome is that both sides culminate short of a decisive engagement and are left with a security zone/no mans land between Nogales, AZ and South Tucson. The US is too weak/disputed to push south (and what do they really gain) and the Mexican Army lacks the combat power to push north and is content to maintain a oeLiberated Zone in the upper Santa Cruz River basin.

With the lack of aerial platforms, I could see both sides trying their hand at raiding using light forces infiltrated through the mountains. However, even that would probably die out as target sets are depleted through breakdown/lack of supply and capacity dwindles. Probably a bad time to be in green valley or sahuarita. Im thinking theyre probably rubble in the middle of no-mans land by the time things stabilize.

oeVictory for Mexico probably consists of dropping overpasses/bridges or cratering I-10 to say they cut it, and maybe some raids or bombardments of infrastructure (DMAFB as a symbolic target) before pulling back to the south with their effective FLOT just north of Nogales, AZ. oeVictory for the US is keeping control of Tucson, retaining the ability to extract resources as permitted, and being able to keep the remaining irrigation/farming/ranching base going to feed the populace and military. This is an area where both sides could easily say they oewon, while allowing things to dwindle as they focus on securing resources and maintaining internal security.

I wonder what Tucson would look like circa 2000-2001. Im thinking population would have moved close to the river or gone up into high ground like mount Lemmon or elsewhere in the Santa Catalinas where water is more available and temperatures are more moderate. Maybe dry land agriculture around the riparian areas to the east and west

Between Tucson and Phoenix, you have about 3.3 million people in 1995, and using satellite imagery (modern), ~750,000 acres under cultivation. Anyone's guess as to how much city sprawl has eaten up in terms of cultivated land between today and 28 years ago. An acre of wheat can feed ~6 people for a year in terms of calories, but that's with pesticides and fertilizer and commercial seed. Mechanization is labor efficient but not acreage efficient, so intensive subsistence agriculture would likely counteract some of the yield loss from the collapse of civilization. If we say yields are cut in half, then you get to a back of the envelope math of enough agriculture in the area to support about 2/3 of the pre-war population. Not awful by T2K standards - certainly much better than Manhattan, where you have enough green fields to support maybe 10,000 people (plus however many people you could feed with rats, pigeons, and fishing from the river).

The problem with Tucson proper is it has maybe 2,000 acres inside or even close to the city that are green or cultivated. Sahuarita is 17 miles as the crow flies from Tucson International Airport (itself at the south end of Tucson). So I would think Tucson would be almost entirely abandoned, with maybe 10-15,000 farmers / scavengers / bandits. The US or Mexican military might maintain a token garrison at DMAFB (most likely the Mexicans), and most of the original population either dispersed to shanty towns to the north, or dead from violence or starved during the 1998-2000 period.

Operating assumptions:
1) still sufficient irrigation & power to drive agriculture activity
2) not enough fuel for farmers to commute to work, people would live in close proximity (1 hour's hike, ~5-7 km) to work the fields.
3) food would not be transported by vehicle to "unproductive" city populations. Collapse of central authority = collapse of food distribution.
4) yields decline but not precipitously so
5) roving bands of refugees do not burn out the farms like they did in the Ohio Valley.

Using those assumptions, I could see Arizona retaining 50% of it's pre-war population. If #1 or #5 are false, then you could see Mad Max and a 90%+ population collapse instead, with the remaining population eking out a miserable existence along rivers and the canals.

[Raellus]

There's enough ground water here in the Tucson area to supply the existing population with potable drinking water. Area farms, however, rely heavily on water from the Coloradon River transported via the CAP canal.

After the nuclear exchange, regional "water wars" between states and municipalities could transpire (the SW states are fighting over it now, IRL). This could cut the Tucson area's access to that crucial CO River water and more or less render large scale agriculture impossible.

Climate-wise, it's quite lovely here for 7 months of the year. Mid-May through mid-October, however, is unbearably hot. It's no surprise that the population of Arizona didn't really grow until the advent of air conditioning.

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[castlebravo92]

There's enough ground water here in the Tucson area to supply the existing population with potable drinking water. Area farms, however, rely heavily on water from the Coloradon River transported via the CAP canal.

After the nuclear exchange, regional "water wars" between states and municipalities could transpire (the SW states are fighting over it now, IRL). This could cut the Tucson area's access to that crucial CO River water and more or less render large scale agriculture impossible.

Climate-wise, it's quite lovely here for 7 months of the year. Mid-May through mid-October, however, is unbearably hot. It's no surprise that the population of Arizona didn't really grow until the advent of air conditioning.

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The whole southern United States is unpleasant without air conditioner for long stretches of the year. Summer was about as bad as we've ever had it this year in Texas, at least as long as I've been alive. My Texas joke is we have two seasons in Texas, summer and almost summer.

One thing about AZ is the population has close to doubled since 1995 (and California has increased by ~8 million), so one bright side is in 2000, you'd have 23 fewer years of population growth, reservoir and ground water depletion to contend with. In addition, AZ grows enough food to be self-sufficient in calorie terms. That being said, it looks to me like the water feeding the Phoenix area agriculture comes from Lake Havasu by way of the Colorado River and Yuma...and while Phoenix nor Tucson might fall to the Mexican invasion, Yuma absolutely would, and from there Mexico could cut off much of the water needed for agriculture and starve out much of the American population of Arizona.

[Homer]

Tucson may be hot in the summer, but try going there from central Louisiana or central North Carolina. Just removing the constant humidity from the air makes feel downright balmy! Phoenix, on the other hand....

[bash]

Tucson may be hot in the summer, but try going there from central Louisiana or central North Carolina. Just removing the constant humidity from the air makes feel downright balmy! Phoenix, on the other hand.

It's a dry heat.

[castlebravo92]

It's a dry heat.

It does make a difference. Sweat doesn't really cool you off in high humidity, and high humidity retains the heat deep into the night. Nothing like walking outside at midnight and it's still 100 degrees outside like it was this year.

[bash]

It does make a difference. Sweat doesn't really cool you off in high humidity, and high humidity retains the heat deep into the night. Nothing like walking outside at midnight and it's still 100 degrees outside like it was this year.

I've spent a lot of time in both Arizona and central Louisiana in the summer. The dry heat totally makes a difference. I've just always been a fan of the saying because I'd always hear it from my relatives in Arizona any time temperature was mentioned. I can take a dry heat. The high wet bulb temperatures of Louisiana were just ridiculous. One time I stepped off a plane onto the tarmac and it felt like stepping into a hot pool.

But all that is to say I think it's interesting to consider terrain (and weather) in all post-TDM scenarios. Without power and pumped water the Southwest US is barely habitable, certainly not at its current population. A lot of lost territory in the Mexican invasion would be territory that was effectively abandoned. Surviving populations of Tucson and Phoenix would likely head west to the Colorado or north. No sense baking and desiccating in the remains of Tucson for six months out of the year.

[Homer]

It's a dry heat.

Try that one in August when you're climbing Tiefort for "team building"! Crash Hill at noon on August is still infinitely preferable to full kit in Shugart-Gordon same time of year...

Agree that much of the modern SW is an empty prize without the power, water, and transportation that contributes to modern carrying capacity. That said, the remaining sources of power and water along with what resources remain extractable and exploitable would likely constitute the strategic objectives in the area. Whether that translates to operations and battles is another matter. If your force is in a relatively good position (water, food, at least a promise of those continuing) and seizing the directed objectives don't correlate with continuing access to those resources you make be less than enthusiastic about jumping off to an attack. And what's the real capacity of higher HQs to compel compliance

[Targan]

Just had a week of temperatures between 95 and 104 F here in Perth, Western Australia and it's not even summer yet. Most of Perth's fresh water these days comes from desalination plants. T2K Perth would be marginally habitable. Certainly there would be a catastrophic reduction in population.

[castlebravo92]

Chico, just wanted to say hope you are doing better and get back on the typewriter again. Your daily updates were one of the things I looked forward to each day.

[Matt Wiser]

Chico, just wanted to say hope you are doing better and get back on the typewriter again. Your daily updates were one of the things I looked forward to each day.

I will second this. Your updates are greatly missed.

[chico20854]

Hi Guys!

As you can tell, I haven't been around for quite some time. I can't really go into details, but last year was challenging for me on a number of fronts (personally, professionally and health-wise) and in December it all came to a head.

As I move forward, I cannot devote the time that sustaining this thread requires - in fact, I was struggling to keep up for most of last year. Indeed, continuing the effort places me in a certain amount of jeopardy professionally. It pains me to do so, but I have to suspend the effort to keep this going, probably for quite some time. I wish I could keep it going, but I just can't risk it.

As a partial wrap-up, the remainder of the action on the Central and Southern European fronts (at a higher level than this thread) were detailed in my earlier document and some pretty photos of the remainder of the war are in my Illustrated History of the Third World War that I worked up a few years back. Google took my website down a few years back and I never completed its replacement (setting that effort aside along with several other efforts), but the Wayback machine has a copy of the website here. Its likely that another document I wrote up will appear in the next edition of the fanzine.

I appreciate all the assistance, support and encouragement that folks here provided! I really did enjoy the opportunity to share stories and make things in the timeline GDW developed come to life.

I will try to stop by from time to time and see what is going on.

Thanks!
(I won't say Good Luck, You're On Your Own! )

[kato13]

Chico,

Tremendous appreciation for what I believe to be the greatest contribution to the T2k world in terms of creativity, quantity, and quality. So many thanks to you for all you have done.

Hoping that you see improvement in every front that has been difficult for you.

Comms will be open, while we sit around the fire retelling stories based on the information you have so generously provided to us.