OT: Putin's War in Ukraine

[Vespers War]

I'd be surprised if there's just a single goal, since there are quite a few to choose from. Among the more likely ones:

1. Seize the initiative from Russia and force them to respond/adapt rather than following planned actions. Russia is improving on its early-war improvisational capabilities, but that improvement is from an abysmal starting point and they're still not good at it.

2. Strike at Russian logistics. Sudzha controls the main rail line supporting the Kharkiv front.

3. Strike into and occupy Russian territory for morale purposes (on both sides) and to strengthen Ukraine's position at any future negotiations.

4. Related to 3, strike into areas where conscripts are located. As long as the war is fought on Ukrainian territory where conscripts aren't deployed, casualties can be written off as "oh, they volunteered for it." Start inflicting casualties on conscripts and the level of unrest might increase as families lose children/spouses/parents that didn't volunteer for that risk.

I actually expect Ukraine to avoid the nuclear power plant as much as possible. Only half of it is operational, and there is probably more downside than upside to approaching it. Russia's shown an eagerness to use nuclear power plants to protect troops. If Ukraine were to damage it, it would be a propaganda coup for Russia. Even if Ukraine didn't damage it, I wouldn't put it past Russia to do so and claim Ukraine was responsible.

I also don't think it's just a feint since the 80th is involved. That's a top-tier unit in an army that doesn't have enough of those to easily spare one for a feint. Pulling Russian units away from the existing front is almost certainly a goal, but I doubt it's the only goal or even the primary one.

[Raellus]

I wonder how much of a strategic reserve, if any, Ukraine has. It seems that now would be a good time to launch a major counterattack at another point in the front line and either achieve another breakthrough- which would really ef the Russians ish up- or at least regain some territory lost over the spring-summer.

In terms of the possible Ukrainian strategic objective of gaining Russian territory to use as leverage in any upcoming peace talks, I just can't see Putin negotiating unless it's from a position of strength.

Last week, maybe, I read somewhere (wish I'd made note of the source) that something like 40,000 Ukrainian men have fled the country so far this year. If true, I'm not sure what to make of that. If this were a war of choice for Ukraine, I could understand- for example, if it was 40,000 Russian men that had left their country. But this war was forced upon Ukraine; for Ukrainians, it is very much an existential conflict, both on a national and a personal level. In the minds of these recent expats, is Ukraine- socially, culturally, politically, economically- simply not worth fighting/potentially dying for I can only imagine what the Ukrainian troops on the front lines think of their countrymen who've fled the country.

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[Targan]

I actually expect Ukraine to avoid the nuclear power plant as much as possible. Only half of it is operational, and there is probably more downside than upside to approaching it. Russia's shown an eagerness to use nuclear power plants to protect troops. If Ukraine were to damage it, it would be a propaganda coup for Russia. Even if Ukraine didn't damage it, I wouldn't put it past Russia to do so and claim Ukraine was responsible.

I wonder how much of a strategic reserve, if any, Ukraine has. It seems that now would be a good time to launch a major counterattack at another point in the front line and either achieve another breakthrough- which would really ef the Russians ish up- or at least regain some territory lost over the spring-summer.

Okay, you two have officially freaked me out. In the days since each of you posted, Russia deliberately set fire to one of the cooling towers at Zaporizhzhia, and the Ukrainians punched another hole in the border and advanced into Belgorod.

[Ewan]

Last week, maybe, I read somewhere (wish I'd made note of the source) that something like 40,000 Ukrainian men have fled the country so far this year. If true, I'm not sure what to make of that. If this were a war of choice for Ukraine, I could understand- for example, if it was 40,000 Russian men that had left their country. But this war was forced upon Ukraine; for Ukrainians, it is very much an existential conflict, both on a national and a personal level. In the minds of these recent expats, is Ukraine- socially, culturally, politically, economically- simply not worth fighting/potentially dying for I can only imagine what the Ukrainian troops on the front lines think of their countrymen who've fled the country.

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While it may not be the article you're thinking off, it presents a similar story

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz994d6vqe5o

[Raellus]

Motivations, Personal & Strategic

While it may not be the article you're thinking off, it presents a similar story.

Thanks, Ewan. That's a very insightful article on the mentality of Ukrainian draft dodgers.

War Zone, my go-to website for military-related news, posted this article in which a former Ukrainian senior officer shared his succint take on the likely objectives of Ukraine's recent Kursk incursion.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/kursk-invasion-plan-developed-by-lessons-learned-from-failed-counteroffensive-retired-ukrainian-officer

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[kato13]

Getting a little back on topic for the forum. Hummers in Russian territory. Who would have thunk it.

Could easily see this modded to a photo to pencil conversion in any of the rule books.

[Tegyrius]

Could easily see this modded to a photo to pencil conversion in any of the rule books.

Here ya go.



(Two-stage process in GIMP. Filters > Decor > Old Photo, then Colors > Desaturate > Color to Gray.)

- C.

[Raellus]

@Tegyrius, that's a dead ringer for v1-2.2 art.

Sadly, it looks like the Kursk incursion is not yet slowing Russian advances in Donetsk. Ukraine is preparing to evacuate the city of Pokrovsk as Russian forces close in.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-pokrovsk-df997d0f23bd7dcdfc6f20080ab133e7

The article includes this very succinct analysis of Ukrainian and Russian thinking re the expansion of the war into the Kursk region of Russia.

"Ukraine is wagering it can cope with the strain on its resources involved in the attack in Kursk without sacrificing Donetsk. Russia apparently reckons it can contain the incursion without needing to ease up in Donetsk."

I really hope Ukraine's gamble doesn't come back to bit it in the butt.

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[Raellus]

It's a Trap

Russia's advance on Pokrovsk, a critical transportation hub on the Donetsk front is picking up steam. Apparently, Ukrainian defenses in the battle area are in disarray, ammunition is in short supply, reinforcements not readily available, and operational leadership is lacking.

One Russian analyst warned that Ukraine is giving up ground so easily this past week that the UAF must be setting a trap for Russian forces. I certainly hope that this is the case. Seen on a map, the Russians have pushed a pretty significant salient towards Pokrovsk. If strong mechanized Ukrainian forces were available to launch major counterattacks, the shoulders of the bulge are vulnerable.

But with so many upper-tier UAF forces committed to operations in the Kursk area, reports indicate that only recently stood-up brigades or battalions pulled from quiet areas on other fronts are available.

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[Vespers War]

Russia's advance on Pokrovsk, a critical transportation hub on the Donetsk front is picking up steam. Apparently, Ukrainian defenses in the battle area are in disarray, ammunition is in short supply, reinforcements not readily available, and operational leadership is lacking.

One Russian analyst warned that Ukraine is giving up ground so easily this past week that the UAF must be setting a trap for Russian forces. I certainly hope that this is the case. Seen on a map, the Russians have pushed a pretty significant salient towards Pokrovsk. If strong mechanized Ukrainian forces were available to launch major counterattacks, the shoulders of the bulge are vulnerable.

But with so many upper-tier UAF forces committed to operations in the Kursk area, reports indicate that only recently stood-up brigades or battalions pulled from quiet areas on other fronts are available.

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One additional potential factor that was brought up to me in another conversation is that Russia's currently advancing over open terrain. Their swift advance is across land that's pretty much impossible to defend in either direction. The open question is what Russia's rate of advance will look like once they hit terrain more suited to the defense, particularly since many of those recently stood-up units are motorized infantry rather than mechanized infantry or armor.

[Raellus]

Over the past couple of days, Ukraine has hit some big Russian ammunition depots in the Tver region with spectacular results. According to War Zone,

"Such was the power of the detonation that a light-magnitude earthquake was reported in the Tver region, registering at 2.8 on the Richter scale."

Why weren't these depots hit earlier

Connecting back to T2k, the number of well-stocked arms depots in Russia speaks to the massive quantities of ammunition stockpiled during the Soviet era.

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[kato13]

Connecting back to T2k, the number of well-stocked arms depots in Russia speaks to the massive quantities of ammunition stockpiled during the Soviet era.

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Solidifies that the 2000 counter-attack makes sense, as it would take longer to deplete all the reserves.

[kato13]

Another story that seems right out of T2k

Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine

[Targan]

Another story that seems right out of T2k

Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine

Bizarre

[Heffe]

Over the past couple of days, Ukraine has hit some big Russian ammunition depots in the Tver region with spectacular results. According to War Zone,

"Such was the power of the detonation that a light-magnitude earthquake was reported in the Tver region, registering at 2.8 on the Richter scale."

Why weren't these depots hit earlier

Connecting back to T2k, the number of well-stocked arms depots in Russia speaks to the massive quantities of ammunition stockpiled during the Soviet era.

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Could be a lot of reasons, but the one I had read that seemed most convincing was that these bases were hit by Ukraine's new domestic rocket drone, which was only recently unveiled. This one:

https://defence-blog.com/ukraine-discloses-details-of-secret-palyanytsya-missile/

If true, it could be that Ukraine simply didn't have domestic weapons capable, until recently, of hitting the facilities. Or alternatively they didn't feel that they had a solid corridor through Russia's AA net to make it work until now.