Re-instated U.S. draft

[Homer]

I figure stop loss/stop move would have been increasingly implemented during early 96 as the China war escalated and reserve component units were mobilized and if necessary federalized.

Politically, ordering a mobilization was a big deal at that time, as was federalizing the guard at large scale. Since it's an election year, there would be a push to be seen as taking matching actions with federal forces, possibly as part of a "tough on Soviet Aggression" platform.

The economic disruption caused by waves of call-up would be offset in part by the rapidly increasing volume of defense production orders from China, Allies, and the DoD. The incumbent campaign would probably seek to highlight increasing economic growth AND the "successful" containment of the war to China (the CT ops in Saudi Arabia can be conducted well below the radar) all the way up until the Bundeswehr crosses the IGB.

[castlebravo92]

What is the Texas Almanac as its piqued my interest. Thanks

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

[Ewan]

Culmination of a bunch of things.

1. A v1 style color map of Texas / southern NM / Oklahoma.

2. A history of the state through 2000, incorporating canon sources (Red Star/Lone Star, Challenge #27 I think) + filling in the blanks (hopefully Chico will let me crib from his stuff as well). I especially want to detail the history after the exchanges through the collapse of state and Federal authority and the rise of the Texian Legion (head canon: a "rogue" Texas State Guard brigade + corrupt Smith county sheriff + OMG gang(s) organize to keep out refugees and marauding refugees from Houston / Beaumont / Shreveport and the Texian Legion's defeat of a US division (think: Battle of the Teutoburg Forest where "allied Germans" ambushed 2 Roman legions).

3. Detailing out various things (what's going on in the Panhandle What happened to the 30,000 nuclear pits stored at Pantex Only a small part of DFW would have been destroyed / damaged by the Carswell strike, what happened to it

4. Town by town descriptions.

5. Major and minor faction details not covered in canon sources.

Thank you and it looks like itll be a really good read.

[Adm.Lee]

Yeah, since GDW basically went with the 1988ish US ORBAT with no new units (AFAIK), my head canon says that draftees (and volunteers) were used to round out activated NG units (given that the whole NG round out brigade thing proved dubious during Desert Shield / Desert Storm) and replace combat losses for existing units. Training divisions were intended to (in head canon at least) to turn out trained classes which would then be directed to individual units in small batches. The conversion of these training orgs to actual combat units was an emergency measure in mid to late 1998.

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96 Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

[Adm.Lee]

To answer the original question, IMO, US conscription should have resumed about the time the US forces joined the war-- around October 1996. Delaying much past that would create a big hole in replacements in the spring and summer of 1997.

[castlebravo92]

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

[chico20854]

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

[ToughOmbres]

What do you mean by using draftees to "round out" activated NG units Are the Guard units left behind, and the barely-trained draftees are sent to the divisions mobilizing and going to Europe in the fall of '96 Surely, the existing Guard brigades and battalions would be easier and quicker to send to the front

I agree that the "ready in a few weeks" promise of the round-out program didn't seem to work IRL 1990-91, but they're still better than starting from scratch.

Yes. The Round-out Brigades were....interesting in Desert Shield. Both 256th Mech (LA ARNG) and 48th Mech (GA ARNG) were alerted and called into federal service but did not deploy into Saudi. From those "in the know" the Regular Army said they could not meet requirements until longer train-ups, which when completed, the ground war was over.
State political figures and National Guard officers blamed bias from the Regular Army against the ARNG on the failure to meet deployment standards. From those "in the know" the truth was somewhere in between. That said, had the fighting been more intense and the ground war lasted much longer and with greater casualties both brigades as I understand it would have been put into the deployment pipeline.

Notice that in the 90's most of the ARNG mechanized brigades went away and almost all of the Army Reserve combat formations also went away.

[ToughOmbres]

Call Up/IRR/ Round Out components.

I have some of these initial fills coming from the Inactive Ready reserve as well, especially in late 96 and early 97 before the flow of new recruits really starts flowing. These IRR troops are already fully trained and experienced, just needing some refresher training. (See my post above about how these guys were mis-used in Desert Storm!)

I'll write up a separate post on my thoughts on timing for the draft.

Interesting on filling in slots during the Twilight War compared with Desert Shield/Desert Storm and the process during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Totally different circumstances of course.
The Arkansas ARNG's 39th Infantry BCT was alerted for deployment during OIF. Approximately 10% of the slots in the Brigade were unfilled (IIRC). Many were filled from the Vermont ARNG, others from other state ARNG units that were not slated for deployment and an unknown number from IRR.

[Adm.Lee]

So, let's say the 256th Infantry Brigade (Mechanized) - Louisiana National Guard - gets mobilized as part of the 5th ID deployment to Europe. The unit itself may not be at full strength, even on paper, and during the work up, some percentage of the NG troops will be unfit for purpose and won't be able to deploy - whatever total percentage that ends up being 10-50% (or whatever), draftees would likely fill. This would increasingly be the case with NG units mobilized later and later in the war...they either deploy under strength, or once activated, they leverage the same draft/recruiting pool as normally active duty divisions. Pre-draft, obviously, they would pull from the recruiting pool, but assuming draft starts in Oct/Nov 96, you would likely see remaining unit complements being filled (at least partly) by draftees by Jun/Jul of 97.

OK, so no differently than filling gaps in the regular units, other than assuming there are more gaps in the NG units. I misunderstood your point.

I think we're also drifting into the idea that IRR reservists would be used to fill in the regular formations, while mobilizing the Guard's formations would take long enough (months) that draftees would be able to cover shortfalls there.

[Claidheamh]

Draft hits home

In November 1996 SECDEF succeeds in getting presidential support for a limited draft as the casualty returns from combat in Norway and at sea start to add up. Convinced to act by DoDs analysis of predicted casualty rates, manpower projections, and the limitations of the IRR and retiree recall pools POTUS is able to get legislation introduced by small group of legislators, and quiet debate begins in the Armed Services Committees. With election results secure a measure buried as a rider in a supplemental spending bill to allow a limited and mostly symbolic draft of 100,000 select 22 and 23 year olds in categories 1-A and 1-A-0 for service within the United States, the oeNew National Defense Act, is passed on party lines on 8 December 1996 amidst news of the Battle of the Norwegian Sea.

Having just turned 24 in Nov 96, the impact of these dates and call-ups hits home in an all new way.

[bash]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

[Adm.Lee]

...
I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

[Raellus]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

That is an intriguing concept. I wonder if any such system has been put into practice by a wartime army in the modern era.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

Great point. There's definitely historical precedent for something like that in the 20th century. For a number of reasons, during the 1930s, the USA was in the grips of isolationist sentiment. Most Americans were shocked and appalled by Japanese aggression in China and Nazi German aggression in central Europe, but didn't want the USA to get involved because we had our own problems to deal with (namely, the Great Depression). FDR, on the other hand, was an internationalist who believed that the USA had a duty to stand up for democracy overseas. He needed a fait accompli to put the USA on a war footing without angering the American public. In 1940, FDR convinced Congress to activate a peacetime draft by promising that draftees would not be deployed overseas. Enough folks in Congress either played dumb or were legitimately fooled into voting for it that it passed. The public largely accepted the peacetime draft because it created paying jobs at a time when the unemployment rate was still really high.

The USA in the mid-1990s was still slightly hung over from the last draft (Vietnam) but I could see Congress passing a conditional draft similar to that instituted by the Selective Training and Service Act of 1940 after the Soviets invade China.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

Indeed, but skilled civilians would still need to learn the "army way" to do things, and that would take some time (but, to your point, probably less than the six weeks or whatever the duration of abbreviated basic training would be).

Whereas, I've assumed that combat troops too wounded to continue in the line would be rotated to those same kind of rear positions.

That would absolutely be the case once the USA was at war and started to accumulate WIA personnel. Later in the war, once the logistical chain between the US and various foreign theaters of operations were strained/severed, most military support jobs like cooking, maintaining some equipment, etc., would be handed over to local civilian "contractors" so that US soldiers who'd normally do those sorts of things could be shifted to frontline combat duty.

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[castlebravo92]

One option with respect to a draft I looked at many moons ago for a game I planned but never ran was the DoD moving REMFs to infantry rolls and back filling support positions with civilian contractors or some not-necessarily-military draft. Basically find a civilian already trained to do job X and have them do that job for the military. They'd need training on DoD procedures and practices as an accelerated AIT but not have to go through BCT. Such civilians could also be trained at a random hotel convention space rather than military bases.

A "soft draft" would have political cover of saying these support roles would never see any fighting so were "safe". Any deployed positions would also qualify for hazard pay so people so drafted might not feel they had a bad deal until nukes started falling. Same with contractors. They might be making good money so contracting was better than enlisting or getting proper drafted.

I figured giving a cook or driver a rifle and sending them to the front was a quicker fill out of a combat position than training a recruit or draftee.

That's a variant of one of the many things Russia has done:

1. Replace immediate combat losses with in-theater troops with non-combat roles and throw them into combat.

2. Scavenge non-theater units for combat replacements (including, in some cases, strategic rocket forces troops - one day you are manning a mobile ICBM, the next day, you are carrying a rifle and trying to advance).

3. Press ganging locals (including Ukrainians) into the military and sending them forward as fodder with 1-2 days of training.

4. Recruiting convicts with promises of freedom.

5. Drafting.

At some point, a desperate US would have done all of the above as well.