YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Olefin]

An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.

Per Frank Chadwick who helped write Red Star Lone Star this is the canon strength


Mechanized Infantry Brigades - 2

Each with two mech inf regiments with 40 VAB APC, one armored recon regiment (which was the size of a battalion) with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC and one SPG battalion of 6 M109 and 12 M108's

Thus the total he had for SPG's was 12 M109 and 24 M108 for the whole Mexican Army (i.e. betting he didnt know they had the 5 M8 Scott's)

There were also:

Armored Cav Regiments (sized as a battalion) - 3

Each with 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC

Regional Brigades - i.e. Inf Brigades - 36 regional brigades

Each averaging one motorized cav regiment (really a battalion - see below), two infantry regiments and one battery of artillery

thus an armored cav regiment had a total of 51 vehicles, 17 ERC-90 and 34 VAB APC (defined as a squadron of of seventeen vehicles of ERC-90 and two squadrons of VAB APC)

so a little bigger but pretty close there RN7! Good estimate!

[Olefin]

Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.

and they also were exporting Russians as well especially what they called undesirables in the Soviet era

[Olefin]

FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28

[Raellus]

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

I like it, Kato.

[RN7]

FYI oil prices per barrel in real life

https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp

year price price adjust for inflation
1990 $23.19 $43.32
1991 $20.20 $36.31
1992 $19.25 $33.58
1993 $16.75 $28.39
1994 $15.66 $25.86
1995 $16.75 $26.91
1996 $20.46 $31.91
1997 $18.64 $28.43
1998 $11.91 $17.89
1999 $16.56 $24.28

In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.

[Olefin]

FYI one idea for where Mexico got the money to buy new equipment - the US

We give Mexico a lot of military assistance and aid - and I can see a Mexican official going to the US and saying "we need military assistance to be able to build up our army to resist the threat from the Nicaraguans and their Soviet allies" and the US saying "sure that sounds like a great idea"

and then a few years later really not thinking so when the equipment said aid bought starts pouring across the Rio Grande

[Olefin]

In the T2K timeline I'd say the price of a barrel of oil would climb to an all time high from October 1996 onwards.

I would say earlier - starting with the Soviet China War, peaking and then going down, then peaking again in October of 1996 and going from there - and could be another source for late buys for Mexico from places like Brazil or Argentina - i.e. where they thought there was no way any fighting could come near them

[Raellus]

Eureka!

Olefin, I believe that I may have seized upon an explanation for Howling Wilderness' seemingly nonsensical demobilization figures AND figured out a way for the U.S.A. to push Mexican forces off of American territory without those troops. AFAIK, the figures in HW refer solely to the U.S. troops returning home from Europe.

What about the 15,400 U.S. troops listed by the v1.0 U.S. Army Vehicle Guide as being in Korea in the summer of 2000. What if they were evacuated in late 2000/early 2001, and made back it to the west coast 15,000 combat veterans could do a lot to eject the Mexican forces that remain on U.S. soil in early 2001. This could explain why most of the Omega evacuees are demobilized without breaking canon.

If you use this idea, I expect a credit.

Give it some thought.

[Olefin]

FYI starting to lean more towards the French Mk F3 155mm SPG (possibly with AMX-VCA support vehicles) as what the Mexicans would have had. Its an older gun that was still in service for sure both with the French and other countries, gives them a 155mm gun but is much more low cost and thus something Mexico could afford a lot easier. And considering Mexico's road and rail network its a light lighter than any other 155mm SPG they might be looking at.

[Olefin]

FYI the link I posted on the Netherlands OOB about Dutch surplus weapons sales has some very interesting info for a V2.2. Mexican Army as far as where they might have got weapons

if you look it not only has weapons they had to dispose of but how many, where they were sold in the real world timeline and most importantly what they cost - i.e what the sale price would have been

https://www.bicc.de/uploads/tx_bicctools/paper5.pdf

you hardly ever see info like that

i.e. 1995 cost for a Leopard I tank - 100,000 dollars, M113A1 30,000-75,000 and some going as low as 25,000, M110A2 for 300,000, 81mm mortar for a 1000 bucks, M-1 carbines for a 100 bucks, etc..

want to buy a company of Leopard I tanks and an ARV - that will be 2 million bucks

need 10,000 Uzis to equip some new reserve infantry regiments - that will be another 2 million bucks

meaning you could actually possibly price out what it might take for the Mexican Army to buy a bunch of stuff for V2.2. for the increase in their army that occurred courtesy of the Netherlands Army

[mpipes]

Here is my take on Mexico's military buildup.

[The Dark]

Here is my take on Mexico's military buildup.

The first question that comes to my mind is where did the surplus AMX-30S come from, since only 190 were made and all were delivered to Saudi Arabia (and, to the best of my knowledge, all of them are still there).

One possibility for a Mexican armored force would be buying Chinese Type 59 or Type 69 tanks, both of which were for sale in the 1980s in our timeline. The Type 59-II with 105mm L7 cannon would allow for fair commonality with Western vehicles for ammunition and spares would be available from Cuba, and they were relatively inexpensive. The AMX-40E4 (the 1985 prototype) was expected to cost around $2.5 million in series production (and those estimates always seem to wind up on the low side), which was a few thousand more than modernized AMX-30 tanks. In the 70s and 80s, T-55 series tanks cost less than 1/10th of that price. Even if there was a ridiculous mark-up for the Type 59-II, it should still be possible to buy 4 or 5 of them for each AMX that could be bought. The big question would be whether it would be politically possible; I personally think it would, since they'd be seen by the US as semi-obsolete and relatively easy to defeat, but they'd give Mexico an inexpensive armored force with decent firepower.

[RN7]

The first question that comes to my mind is where did the surplus AMX-30S come from, since only 190 were made and all were delivered to Saudi Arabia (and, to the best of my knowledge, all of them are still there).

The French were still building the AMX-30 (variants of it) as late as 1994, and the Twilight 2000 timeline is different and its possible the French could have built more.

[RN7]

FYI the link I posted on the Netherlands OOB about Dutch surplus weapons sales has some very interesting info for a V2.2. Mexican Army as far as where they might have got weapons

if you look it not only has weapons they had to dispose of but how many, where they were sold in the real world timeline and most importantly what they cost - i.e what the sale price would have been

https://www.bicc.de/uploads/tx_bicctools/paper5.pdf

you hardly ever see info like that

i.e. 1995 cost for a Leopard I tank - 100,000 dollars, M113A1 30,000-75,000 and some going as low as 25,000, M110A2 for 300,000, 81mm mortar for a 1000 bucks, M-1 carbines for a 100 bucks, etc..

want to buy a company of Leopard I tanks and an ARV - that will be 2 million bucks

need 10,000 Uzis to equip some new reserve infantry regiments - that will be another 2 million bucks

meaning you could actually possibly price out what it might take for the Mexican Army to buy a bunch of stuff for V2.2. for the increase in their army that occurred courtesy of the Netherlands Army

There is a lot of stuff the Mexicans could buy at bargain prices, but as regards to tanks and anti-tank missiles other NATO countries might not be willing to sell them to Mexico as the Americans would not approve of it. But certainly France and the Soviets would sell their stuff or would have no objection to them being sold second hand.

[The Dark]

The French were still building the AMX-30 (variants of it) as late as 1994, and the Twilight 2000 timeline is different and its possible the French could have built more.

True, but even other desert countries didn't want the AMX-30S - Qatar bought the AMX-30B2 in 1977 and the UAE bought the AMX-30B the same year. I think the perceived problem with the S model was the downrated engine (620 horsepower, where most AMX-30 were 720). This reduced mobility, which was supposed to be the tank's primary defense. The S also has inferior stabilization and fire control to the B2, and isn't designed to fire APFSDS shells (which the B2 can use). My personal opinion is that if someone in the early/mid-80s was going to go high-end enough to get AMX-30 tanks, they'd go for the B2 instead of the S. If the B2 was too expensive, there'd be better choices than the almost-as-expensive S.