YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[Olefin]

Oh I am not talking about a lot of M47's - I think if Mexico does buy tanks it will be at most a battalion or so - and they may not even do that - the more I read about the X1A the more I can see them sending those 45 M3/M5 they have to be turned into those - and possibly buy more from Brazil.

Definitely turns a WWII dinosaur into a much more effective tank

[RN7]

Oh I am not talking about a lot of M47's - I think if Mexico does buy tanks it will be at most a battalion or so - and they may not even do that - the more I read about the X1A the more I can see them sending those 45 M3/M5 they have to be turned into those - and possibly buy more from Brazil.

Definitely turns a WWII dinosaur into a much more effective tank

The U.S. and NATO planned to upgrade the M47's stored in Italy during the later Cold War, but then the Cold War ended and they weren't needed. But given how much NATO was out numbered by the Warsaw Pact in Europe in the Cold War there is no way that the U.S. is going to send a battalion or more of tanks to Mexico.

Considering how little money Mexico had to spend on defence during and after the Cold War how would it afford all of the equipment you are proposing

[Olefin]

Lets look at the equipment

they had the money to buy several hundred AMX-VCI APC's and BDX APC's and then rework them and rearm them in real life in the early to mid 90's - thus this gives us a base for what they had to spend

So what are we looking at - 36 SPG's per the canon - all of them older models and ones that countries would be looking to get rid of

rebuild 45 light tanks into better tanks - or even buy ones that the Brazilians were retiring - not that expensive a cost

adding about 180 APC's of some sort and maybe not that many if you count the home build ones they had to get to the canon numbers - thats where the real spend would be and also buying MILAN or HOT missiles

thus could they have the money - the answer is yes - if they had the money for the AMX/BDX buy in real life they most likely had the money for the kind of buy I am proposing

What they didnt have was the money for the Mexican Sourcebook buy of literally over a thousand tanks - that they didnt have the money for unless you postulate a huge increase in oil prices

[RN7]

Lets look at the equipment

they had the money to buy several hundred AMX-VCI APC's and BDX APC's and then rework them and rearm them in real life in the early to mid 90's - thus this gives us a base for what they had to spend

So what are we looking at - 36 SPG's per the canon - all of them older models and ones that countries would be looking to get rid of

rebuild 45 light tanks into better tanks - or even buy ones that the Brazilians were retiring - not that expensive a cost

adding about 180 APC's of some sort and maybe not that many if you count the home build ones they had to get to the canon numbers - thats where the real spend would be and also buying MILAN or HOT missiles

thus could they have the money - the answer is yes - if they had the money for the AMX/BDX buy in real life they most likely had the money for the kind of buy I am proposing

What they didnt have was the money for the Mexican Sourcebook buy of literally over a thousand tanks - that they didnt have the money for unless you postulate a huge increase in oil prices

All of that would point to a major change in the direction of Mexican defence policy that never occurred during or after the Cold War.

Did the AMX-VCI/BDX buy occur during the Cold war, and with all the surplus defence equipment floating about after the end of the Cold War why did Mexico choose these old vehicles when it could have its choice of anything it wanted

How many actual military vehicles are recorder as transferred from Belgium to Mexico How long did the Mexicans take to covert all of them to DCN-1 Would upgrading and converting 40 year old SP howitzers without any parts being made be an easy thing And then on top of that Mexico finds the money and expertise to buy and convert light tanks from Brazil, and then buy a whole load of anti-tank missiles from France

That's a lot of effort for very little gain. If Mexico has money why not just buy some new or used material in good condition from France.

[Olefin]

The light tanks from Brazil would have been already converted if they bought ones from Brazil. They did that back in the 1970-80's. The X1A and it's variants were already done by Brazil and they are the ones who would have the expertise to be able to convert the Mexican tanks. And the company in Brazil was looking for more customers for conversions of their tanks. And that was done during the Cold War.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/coldwar/Brazil/Bernardini-X1A.php

Bernardini S/A Industria e Comercio (Bernardini Industrial and Commerce Company) of Sao Paulo was funded 1912. It was already a well-established vehicle manufacturer when it first earned a contract for the modernization of the M41 Walker Bulldog in service to the M41B and M41C standard

Variants
X1A (1975) – Based on the M3A1 Light Tank with a new diesel Saab-Scania 280 hp engine, improved suspension, improved armor, new fire control system, DEFA 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon, new turret. 80 converted. The first 80 vehicles were modernized from 1975 to 1978. They were given to Cavalry Regiments under the designation X1. Also known as the CC MB1 (Combat Car, Brazilian Model nr. 1) or X1A, it remained in service until the 1990's.

X1A1 Carcara (1977) – Prototype with an improved chassis and six bogies, which never made it into production.

X1A2 (1979) – Final version based on the previous X1A1, and completely overhauled. Weighing 19 tons, it was armed with a new 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon and new 300 hp diesel engine. 30 rebuilt in 1982-83. Those 30 are actually in reserve still for the Brazilian Army to date.


As for the AMX- VCI/BDX they were bought in real life after the end of the Cold War and the numbers are public record - 400+ . So if in real life they had the money in the early 90's to make that buy then it's a good bet they had that money in the canon as well. If so that could be where the money comes from for the SPG's and APC's in the canon. And the numbers they would have needed easily are within that budget they had in real life. Keep in mind that Mexico had already bought 200+ armored cars and APCs and 80 MILAN missiles in the mid-1980s. Thus a second buy of similar size is definitely possible.

However a 1000 plus buy of tanks and APC's of the Mexican Sourcebook would be way beyond that level of budget

That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash

[Olefin]

Its too bad we dont know how much the sales actually were in a monetary sense to Mexico - i.e. how much Mexico paid for the vehicles, missiles, etc.. they bought - given that you could extrapolate as to what they could buy new versus second hand - or even use that to say ok thats either 100 AMX-VCI secondhand or 40 new VCR-TT or whatever

[kato13]

That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash

My timeline has that 100%. Middle East oil is disrupted and Russia Mexico and Venezuela reap the benefits.

[The Dark]

Looking at Belgium (based on Mexico's acquisition of Belgian APCs), what about the old Kanonenjagdpanzer 90s that Belgium got from Germany In our timeline, they left service in the late 80s (I think), but in either the V1 or V2 timelines, they may have been sold to Mexico instead, since they're obsolete (it uses the M47's main gun), but better than what Mexico had.

[Olefin]

All of that would point to a major change in the direction of Mexican defence policy that never occurred during or after the Cold War.

Did the AMX-VCI/BDX buy occur during the Cold war, and with all the surplus defence equipment floating about after the end of the Cold War why did Mexico choose these old vehicles when it could have its choice of anything it wanted

How many actual military vehicles are recorder as transferred from Belgium to Mexico How long did the Mexicans take to covert all of them to DCN-1 Would upgrading and converting 40 year old SP howitzers without any parts being made be an easy thing And then on top of that Mexico finds the money and expertise to buy and convert light tanks from Brazil, and then buy a whole load of anti-tank missiles from France

That's a lot of effort for very little gain. If Mexico has money why not just buy some new or used material in good condition from France.

Well here is some info

http://www.un-register.org/HeavyWeapons/CountrySummaryReports.aspxCoI=128

1994 - 95 BDX 168 AMX from Belgium to Mexico
1995 - 97 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico
1996 - 136 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico

Now those would be the AMX-VCI's - 401 total over three years

You also have the 28 LAV-150's the US sold Mexico in 1994

[RN7]

Well here is some info

http://www.un-register.org/HeavyWeapons/CountrySummaryReports.aspxCoI=128

1994 - 95 BDX 168 AMX from Belgium to Mexico
1995 - 97 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico
1996 - 136 AMX 13 from Belgium to Mexico

Now those would be the AMX-VCI's - 401 total over three years

You also have the 28 LAV-150's the US sold Mexico in 1994

This site states in the national reports from Mexico that...

In 1994 Mexico received 70 BDX from Belgium, 268 AMX-13 (I presume VCI) from France, and 1 Fox from Britain.
In 1995 Mexico received 136 AMX-13 from Belgium.
In 1996 Mexico received 5 AMX-13 (Heavy) from Belgium

Then in the Mexico references to other countries reports it states...

In 1994 Mexico received 95 BDX and 168 AMX-13 from Belgium, and 28 ACV (unknown type) from the USA
In 1995 Mexico received 97 AMX-13 from Belgium
In 1996 Mexico received 136 AMX-13 from Belgium

The figures from both column don't add up, and they are contrary to the accurate SIPRA Arms Transfers Database at https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers

[RN7]

The light tanks from Brazil would have been already converted if they bought ones from Brazil. They did that back in the 1970-80's. The X1A and it's variants were already done by Brazil and they are the ones who would have the expertise to be able to convert the Mexican tanks. And the company in Brazil was looking for more customers for conversions of their tanks. And that was done during the Cold War.

http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/coldwar/Brazil/Bernardini-X1A.php

Bernardini S/A Industria e Comercio (Bernardini Industrial and Commerce Company) of Sao Paulo was funded 1912. It was already a well-established vehicle manufacturer when it first earned a contract for the modernization of the M41 Walker Bulldog in service to the M41B and M41C standard

Variants
X1A (1975) Based on the M3A1 Light Tank with a new diesel Saab-Scania 280 hp engine, improved suspension, improved armor, new fire control system, DEFA 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon, new turret. 80 converted. The first 80 vehicles were modernized from 1975 to 1978. They were given to Cavalry Regiments under the designation X1. Also known as the CC MB1 (Combat Car, Brazilian Model nr. 1) or X1A, it remained in service until the 1990s.

X1A1 Carcara (1977) Prototype with an improved chassis and six bogies, which never made it into production.

X1A2 (1979) Final version based on the previous X1A1, and completely overhauled. Weighing 19 tons, it was armed with a new 90 mm (3.54 in) cannon and new 300 hp diesel engine. 30 rebuilt in 1982-83. Those 30 are actually in reserve still for the Brazilian Army to date.


As for the AMX- VCI/BDX they were bought in real life after the end of the Cold War and the numbers are public record - 400+ . So if in real life they had the money in the early 90's to make that buy then it's a good bet they had that money in the canon as well. If so that could be where the money comes from for the SPG's and APC's in the canon. And the numbers they would have needed easily are within that budget they had in real life. Keep in mind that Mexico had already bought 200+ armored cars and APCs and 80 MILAN missiles in the mid-1980s. Thus a second buy of similar size is definitely possible.

However a 1000 plus buy of tanks and APC's of the Mexican Sourcebook would be way beyond that level of budget

That would require something that gives them a lot of money - say oil going nuts and suddenly its a 100 dollars a barrel or something similar that leaves Mexico flush with cash

Well Olefin you may not agree with Mexico having a 1,000 plus buy of tanks and APC's in the Mexican Sourcebook, and to be honest I don't agree with the numbers either. But its definitely on the right path to giving the Mexicans a fighting chance against U.S. forces in the southwest.

Also the numbers you have been proposing on other posts are not that far off the Mexican Sourcebook, although the type of equipment is obviously different. But to be honest with you it would be a lot easier for Mexico to buy a battalion or two of tanks and other used or new equipment from France than going to the trouble of acquiring inferior equipment from other sources and then converting it to a standard that will still be lower than what they could get from France. After all as you have said Mexico is flush with oil money!

What Mexico needs is a tank killer, either tanks or anti-tank missiles, to take on American tanks. No matter what they could conceivably get they are not going to be able to handle an M1A1 outside of bushwacking them from the rear, but it is possible that there are not that many M1A1s in the southwest. On the other hand a modern tank or more powerful anti-tank missiles could take on M60's and baseline M1's with some success.

[Olefin]

The question again is more what does Mexico have for money for getting equipment - and an oil bonanza isnt in the canon (but just because its not mentioned doesnt mean it didnt happen)

In reality they got close to 500 old Belgian APC's that they bought second hand for bargain prices because the Belgians had to get rid of them per the treaty.

In V1 the Cold War is still going strong and they wont get that deal - but in V2.2 they would have most likely (again the treaty that forced vehicle reductions in Europe in V2.2 versus no treaty in V1)

But its a big step from there to the Mexican Sourcebook - and I think a step too far - just too many tanks and APC's and self propelled guns and ..... - i.e. its too big a build up to be believable that the depleted US forces could have stopped them

i.e. 1400 tanks versus a few light foot infantry divisions, one tank division and one under strength mech division with limited ammo and no air support would have been a massacre - i.e. you would have seen the Mexican flag waving over St Louis by the time they were done

when you read the canon per Frank Chadwick you see all he has is the Mexican's using two mechanized infantry brigades and three cavalry regiments that were battalion sized to do most of the heavy lifting vs a vs armored thrusts in the invasion - that right there shows just how small US forces must have been as to armor equipment that a force that size, supported by infantry brigades that dont have much in the way of armor, succeeded as they did

that and the complete lack of any mention of Mexican tanks in Red Star Lone Star I would think shows that any large tank buildup is very unlikely - but a smaller one that got ground up in the attack and thus by 2001 all thats left of them is rusting knocked out junk dotting the plains of Texas and valleys and deserts of CA with maybe a couple of survivors here and there - that makes a lot of sense considering the size of the opposition they faced (and the fact that Soviet Division Cuba seems to have done a lot of the heavy lifting stopping the 49th cold in Texas)

and there is a very real possible tank killer - i.e. the VCR-TH that had the HOT missiles - that they could have had to supplement the VBL's with MILAN's that they had from the 80's - after all they already had 48 VCR variants in their army

[kato13]

and an oil bonanza isnt in the canon (but just because its not mentioned doesnt mean it didnt happen)

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

[RN7]

An explanation to why there is no list of French tanks in Mexican service in Texas in the Red Star-Lone Star SB maybe because there are now none operational in the region because they bore the brunt of the initial invasion and took heavy losses. What was left of them could have been withdrawn back into Mexico.

The AMX-30 is not a good tank from the perspective of its armour protection. It is inferior to an M60 yet alone an Abram's, and its protection is inferior to most Soviet tanks. The French Army were glad to replace it with the vastly superior Leclerc. However its good by Mexican standards and it would have given them at least a chance. Most Mexican vehicles are vulnerable to heavy machine guns fire yet alone tanks and anti-tank weapons.

Off hand I don't know the composition of a Mexican armoured cavalry battalion/regiment. What 36-48 vehicles Two battalions of AMX-30's would be less than a 100 tanks. A moderate force before the invasion that would likely have seen the brunt of combat against U.S. forces, and through losses, attrition and lack of spares would likely only be a fraction of its pre-invasion strength. The Mexicans probably withdrew the surviving 10-20 tanks back into Mexico as a reserve, in case American reinforcements from east of the Mississippi or the Pacific North West led to a major American counter-offensive that pushed through Texas and into Mexico itself.

HOT-1 missiles would also give the Mexican some teeth against older American tanks.

[RN7]

(v1 focus below)
Simply put the timeline CANNOT follow the real world. Primary reason, the USSR survives and is strong enough to take on China while NATO is still a huge threat. Many things must have changed for the world to get what we got.

The V1 timeline was written in 1983 or 84 so one would think that nothing after that point is set in stone. Personally I start my variation in 1974 as the Oil Embargo continues longer leading to Mexico, Venezuela and Russia forming their own Oil pact. Venezuela, Nigeria and Indonesia suspend their membership to Opec at various times to take advantage of higher oil prices due to increased tension in the Middle East. Russia finds HUGE reserves near the Chinese border in 74 (embargo increases exploration) and after they can get it online they work hard to keep the Middle East pot stirring.

For me this validates the USSR surviving and the desire to take more lands from China.

I don't expect everyone to embrace this, but when explaining the game to people the first question they ask is how the USSR survived. This modification at least seems plausible.

Oil and arms were the Soviets main exports, in fact they are still Russia's main exports today.