YaATW2KT: The Second Mexican-American War

[kato13]

Thanks for the insight Kato, some interesting info there particularly the part about Lithuanian Americans. Even without the PC/NPC going into USSF it still makes an interesting character background.

What you've mentioned is the same sort of thing that's being going on in Poland recently with their worries about Russia. Not that that's particularly useful for a T2k game (more useful for a 2013 game) but it's interesting to see the continuation of the Russians as a "bogieman".

So what chance do you think there would be for a successful Soviet infiltration of the Russian-Mexican population Not that they probably need to do it anyway, the Soviet relationship with Mexico was always pretty friendly most of the time but it makes for some interesting speculation.

My point of historical point of deviation is 1974 and the oil crisis. Perhaps the USSR, Mexico, and Venezuela (maybe a few others) could form a counter to OPEC. Leading to closer ties between all three nations.

Could a hurricane force a shipment of Vehicles on its way to Venezuela to go to Mexico Maybe the ship was delivering sample vehicles (Jeeps and Trucks) for the Mexican Army to test, and Caracas (with 12 T-72s and 36 BMP1 - spit-balling the numbers here) was the next stop. American forces in the Caribbean kept the ship in port after the German war started. A stretch I know, but it feel like there might be an answer somewhere in here.

[RN7]

Here's an interesting little bit of history that could be used to allow Soviet infiltration of Mexican society & government (and in real life maybe it was There doesn't seem to be much info about it on the net).
There was modest sized Russian community living in Mexico beginning in the 1920s. All of the families involved were Russian jews escaping persecution and the original 50 families established a colony in Guadeloupe. The Mexican government had maintained fairly good relations with the USSR since that time and still has good relations with the Russian government of today.

It's possible that the early Soviet government infilitrated the community to keep a watch on them, how likely that was is obviously open to debate as is how effective such surveillance might have been.
What little I've read about them indicates that the wider world generally didn't pay the Russians in Mexico much, if any, attention. Particularly as they chose to locate themselves in a fairly isolated area that didn't attract non-Russian Mexicans until the late 1950s-early 1960s. However this isolation may have also rendered them as less threatening to the Communists as well maybe I really haven't delved deeply into this so I'm simply speculating here.

During the Cold War era it's also possible that the Soviets monitored & infiltrated these Mexican Russians. Again, how likely that would have been and how much influence they might have tried to exercise over them is open to debate. But it could provide an opening in the history of Mexico for efforts to reconcile some of the more "far out" elements of T2k Mexican and Soviet history perhaps

On a side note Leon Trotsky was exiled from the Soviet Union by Stalin and ended up in Mexico in 1937. He was assassinated by NKVD agents in Mexico City in 1940.

[Rainbow Six]

Mexico purchasing armoured vehicles from Brazil at some point sounds fairly plausible to me.

If were looking for valid reasons why the Mexicans would have Soviet armour as per City Of Angels I still think any of the following are possible

1. They were part of a shipment that were delivered to Cuba, either for use by Cubas own armed forces or the Soviets, and somehow or other they ended up getting shipped to Mexico. Maybe the Cubans were worried that the Americans might see them as some sort of threat (a possible invasion force) and take pre-emptive action (i.e. nuke them) so struck a deal to give / sell them to the Mexicans.

2. A Soviet Op OMEGA. I think someone mentioned this up thread and it fits with my own opinion as to why Soviet freighters might be sent across the Pacific late in the War Soviet High Command has decided that the Division Cuba troops could be of more use shoring things up back in the USSR so the freighters are sent to bring them home but theres not enough room for all of their heavy gear so they agree to leave it for the Mexicans, unintentionally mirroring what the Americans did at Bremerhaven. Somewhere down the line maybe the whole thing gets called off (maybe the freighters all get sunk), but not before some armour has been handed over and possession, as they say, is nine tenths of the law.

2B. A less official OMEGA. Maybe a Soviet commander goes rogue, deserts his post in Texas and heads west with a number of a loyal troops (and their armoured vehicles). Their plan is to head for the west coast, commandeer a ship, and repatriate themselves to the USSR. Somewhere along the way they make friendly contact with a Mexican Army unit. The Soviets are ultimately successful (somehow) in taking over some sort of vessel but, as per 2 above, there isn't enough room for their vehicles so they leave them with their Mexican comrades in arms and sail off back to the Motherland.

[Olefin]

Mexico purchasing armoured vehicles from Brazil at some point sounds fairly plausible to me.

If were looking for valid reasons why the Mexicans would have Soviet armour as per City Of Angels I still think any of the following are possible

1. They were part of a shipment that were delivered to Cuba, either for use by Cubas own armed forces or the Soviets, and somehow or other they ended up getting shipped to Mexico. Maybe the Cubans were worried that the Americans might see them as some sort of threat (a possible invasion force) and take pre-emptive action (i.e. nuke them) so struck a deal to give / sell them to the Mexicans.

2. A Soviet Op OMEGA. I think someone mentioned this up thread and it fits with my own opinion as to why Soviet freighters might be sent across the Pacific late in the War Soviet High Command has decided that the Division Cuba troops could be of more use shoring things up back in the USSR so the freighters are sent to bring them home but theres not enough room for all of their heavy gear so they agree to leave it for the Mexicans, unintentionally mirroring what the Americans did at Bremerhaven. Somewhere down the line maybe the whole thing gets called off (maybe the freighters all get sunk), but not before some armour has been handed over and possession, as they say, is nine tenths of the law.

2B. A less official OMEGA. Maybe a Soviet commander goes rogue, deserts his post in Texas and heads west with a number of a loyal troops (and their armoured vehicles). Their plan is to head for the west coast, commandeer a ship, and repatriate themselves to the USSR. Somewhere along the way they make friendly contact with a Mexican Army unit. The Soviets are ultimately successful (somehow) in taking over some sort of vessel but, as per 2 above, there isn't enough room for their vehicles so they leave them with their Mexican comrades in arms and sail off back to the Motherland.

Ok I officially love these ideas - and all have a limited amount of equipment involved so its not the whole Mexican Army with it - its just maybe one or two units

Getting material from Brazil obviously has one complication post war start - which is getting it thru the Caribbean to Mexico's Atlantic ports - but since most if not all shipments would have occurred prior to Mexico invading that probably wouldnt be an issue - and even afterward its possible - i.e. if they can transport Soviet Division Cuba to Mexico after the invasion then the USN presence in the Gulf must have been very minimal

[Olefin]

Deliveries of AMX-VCI started in 1994 when 33 were registered as sold to Mexico. This was followed by 18 in 1995 and 22 in 1996. After that Belgium sold no more to Mexico, and other AMX-VCI's were later obtained from France.

However this in real life not the Twilight War. The AMX-VCI constituted one third of the Belgian Army's stock of tracked armoured personnel carriers. The rest were M113's, Spartans and AIFV-B's, and all the French Army's stocks of tracked armoured personnel carriers were AMX-10P's or AMX-VCI's. In the Twilight War timeline the Cold War is at 1980's levels and the Soviets are belligerent to the West. Belgian and French companies might be willing to sell new armoured vehicles to Mexico, but I cannot see Belgium of France transferring any armoured vehicles from their own armies to Mexico.

RN - question - where did you get your data - this is what I have using http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade...e_register.php as the basis for the AMX-VCI deliveries

But I dont have access to a Jane's

Supplier/ No. Weapon Weapon Year of No.
recipient (R) ordered designation description of order delivery delivered Comments


Belgium
R: Mexico (401) AMX-VCI APC (1994) 1994-1996 401 Second-hand; incl some or most modernized before delivery; incl VTT/PM mortar carrier and ARV version; Mexican designation DNC-1

(95) BDX APC (1994) 1994-1995 (95) Second-hand; Mexican designation DNC-2

That would support that they all came from Belgium and not a mix of Belgium and France - per that site there was no transfers to Mexico from France of any equipment from 1993 to 1997 - that last such transfer was in 1993

4 AS-355/AS-555 Fennec Light helicopter (1992) 1992-1993 (4) AS-555AF armed

another source I have shows 40 AMX-VCI (i.e. as the DNC-1) in service in the Mexican Army in 1996 which shows at least that many would have been delivered and gone thru the conversion process both at SABIEX and at SEDENA

Would definitely love to see where you got the numbers above - would be very helpful indeed for further research


thank you very much

[Olefin]

FYI I was doing some research over lunch and found a very intriguing tank that would fit perfectly in the Mexican Army - ever heard of the X1A and X1A2 light tanks - they were Stuart tanks that were modified by Brazil with a new engine, an improved suspension, new upper hull armor, modern fire controls and a 90 mm gun in a brand new turret - with the X1A2 going even further

and the Brazilians were finally phasing them out right about the time the Mexicans would have been looking for vehicles

they could have either:

a) just bought as many as they could get (which would up to 80 as the Brazilians were still using the X1A2's)

or

b) they had 45 Stuarts of their own - and they could have done the mod themselves under license or sent them to Brazil to get modified

that turns a bunch of elderly Stuarts with a pop-gun into a decent anti-armor vehicle with a gun that the South Africans were using to take out T54/55's in Angola

[RN7]

RN - question - where did you get your data - this is what I have using http://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade...e_register.php as the basis for the AMX-VCI deliveries

The same source. You just need to look harder

IMPORTER/EXPORTER TIV TABLES
Hit Export then Belgium
Hit Year: 1990-2016 (although in the first post I only put 1990-1996)
Hit Weapon category
This table shows general armored vehicle exports and not destination, but Belgium didn't sell armored vehicles to anyone but Mexico between 1994 and 1996. But then again on closer inspection Belgium also sold 87 Leopard 1A1 tanks to Brazil between 1997 and 1999 so maybe we can subtract that from Belgian exports to Mexico between 1997 and 1999.

Supplier/ No. Weapon Weapon Year of No.
recipient (R) ordered designation description of order delivery delivered Comments


Belgium
R: Mexico (401) AMX-VCI APC (1994) 1994-1996 401 Second-hand; incl some or most modernized before delivery; incl VTT/PM mortar carrier and ARV version; Mexican designation DNC-1

(95) BDX APC (1994) 1994-1995 (95) Second-hand; Mexican designation DNC-2

That would support that they all came from Belgium and not a mix of Belgium and France - per that site there was no transfers to Mexico from France of any equipment from 1993 to 1997 - that last such transfer was in 1993

You would think, but when you look at Belgian yearly exports of armored vehicles for this period this is not the case is it.

[Webstral]

One factor we should bear in mind when considering the correlation of forces in the American Southwest is the fact that the war was fought in a conventional mode by US forces in Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf for seven months before the first nukes were used. As regards aircraft, losses among US airframes in those theaters would have been staggering. Losses would have exceeded replacement by a huge margin. I say this not to disparage the USAF in any way, shape, or form. I dont doubt that the USAF would have achieved a splendid exchange rate once the lessons learned by the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force on the Far Eastern Front and the Luftwaffe over Europe were fully digested and put into practice.

Still, if we work with General Sir John Hacketts proposition of an exchange rate of 2:5 in combat airframes in Europe as a starting point for the discussion, we are left with a massive load for the USAF to carry. We should consider several salient factors:

By the time the USAF gets directly involved on or about 12/1/96, the Soviets have been fighting an air war for 15-16 months. While they will have suffered serious losses, they will have had the time to ramp up production to offset those losses"at least partially. More importantly, their air crews will have two years of invaluable combat experience. In the air, this means the average number of flying hours for the surviving pilots will be very considerable indeed. Multiply that value times whatever factor flying those hours under combat conditions can be expected to yield, and we may find that that Soviet air crews at the end of 1996 are dramatically superior to what we might have expected in July, 1995 (before the start of the Sino-Soviet War).

Of course, not every pilot in the SAF (a blanket term to cover the various commands employing fixed wing combat aircraft) is going to have rotated through the Far East by the time the West Germans cross the border in October, 1996. But I would expect some effort by the senior leadership to rotate air crews and ground crews through the Far Eastern Front on some basis so that the benefits of operating in combat could be more widely distributed. By the same token, the Soviets would have good reason to rotate individual pilots or even whole regiments out of the Far East for rest, retraining, and refitting. Morale would suffer if the Far Eastern air regiments began to get the idea that they were doing all the heavy lifting for the nation while their comrades in Europe lived the easy life.

If we dig into the details, we may find that the experience of the SAF in the Far East might not translate perfectly evenly to Europe (or the Middle East) in every particular. The early air dominance of the SAF means that the institutional experience gained in air-to-air operations will be less than the experience gained in air-to-ground operations. The Chinese wont allow the PLAAF to be wiped out entirely in unequal air-to-air fighting during 1995. They will do their best to keep a force in being that can challenge Soviet air supremacy at moments the Chinese will hope to choose. The Soviets definitely will have the chance to practice bomber escort and counter-air operations on an ongoing, if sporadic, basis during the first ten months of 1996.

The Soviets will get plenty of practice flying air-to-ground missions. I suspect these pilots will be the first to suffer combat fatigue. CAS, interdiction, and other strike missions are highly dangerous against any defended target, as US pilots who fought over Vietnam can attest. Stand-off munitions will run short long before requests for air support do, meaning that Soviet air crews are going to have to fly into the teeth of the Chinese ground based air defenses to deliver bombs and rockets.

Ground based air defense systems will be at or near the top of list of materiel the Chinese request from the West. Its hard to say where the Western powers will draw the line regarding provision of these items. I rather suspect that the United States will be inclined to be conservative, not wanting state-of-the-art systems to fall into Soviet hands. The French may be more willing to risk having their gear fall into Soviet hands in order to turn a profit in the short term and increase their influence in China over the long term. Thats all politics, which is a whole separate area for speculation. Suffice to say that I think that the fact that there are multiple Western suppliers who will be competing for money and post-war influence will cause the Chinese to receive more and better systems generally than if a single Western power were supplying them.

Consequently, the Soviets will be exposed to Western ground based air defenses in combat before the fighting starts in Europe. Conditions wont be exactly the same, of course. Still, the Soviet pilots who survive their encounters over China will have dearly-purchased experience in how to deal with some of the same systems they will be facing in Europe and the Middle East once the fighting starts there.

Soviet ground crews will gain enormously, as will the air controllers. A year is a long time in an air war"long enough for procedures and training to be modified to fit real world circumstances. By the time the West Germans attempt to liberate East Germany, the Soviets will have the time and the motivation to rewrite their book on air operations from the air control and ground support standpoint. They will be highly motivated to ensure that these hard-won lessons are incorporated into every air regiment, whether that regiment fights in the Far East or not.

Going forward to the involvement of the USAF in WW3, the Americans are going to find themselves up against a foe in the air who is leaner and meaner than anything they might have encountered in July of 1995. The SAF definitely will be much smaller than it was at the start of the Sino-Soviet War. The personnel and aircraft will be better managed. Although the benefits of experience in the Far East will not be evenly distributed, the Americans are likely to find that the quality of Soviet tactics, battle management, and ground support are considerably superior to what might have been found two years prior. In Europe, the Americans are going to be up against the winners of the defensive air battle against the Luftwaffe.

So while the SAF the USAF encounters from 12/1/96 forward will be quantitatively inferior to the SAF of early 1995, the SAF will definitely be qualitatively superior to the SAF of 1995. Room exists for considerable speculation on how these two factors translate into overall combat power or combat power in a given theater. Historically, a relative handful of pilots have made a highly disproportionate percentage of the air-to-air kills. Its hard to say who these pilots are going to be in peacetime, though history tells us that many of these guys are not the commands favorite officers in peace time. By December 1996, the Soviets will have gone through the process of having peacetime troublemakers transition into wartime heroes. The transition may not be complete"look at how the Soviet military treated the Afghanistan veterans. However, the scale of the Sino-Soviet War may cause the senior leadership to have an attitude closer to that of the leadership in the Great Patriotic War than during the war in Afghanistan.

One thing I feel comfortable in asserting is that the pilots who are likely to become real achievers in the air are also likely to request reassignment to the Far East once the fighting starts and once the need for more pilots becomes clear. Air commanders in Europe and the Caucasus may see this as an opportunity to get rid troublesome officers for a time or maybe even permanently. In this sense, the cream of Soviet pilots probably ought to rise to the top. Though this process probably wont be complete by December 1996, the Soviets certainly will be much further along than the Americans.

By the same token, the Pact air forces will be fewer in number of aircraft but much stronger in terms of experience by the time the West Germans cross the border in October 1996.

All this has to be taken into account when we assess the loss rate of US aircraft from 12/96 through 8/97. We also have to bear in mind that NATO will not enjoy the participation of French, Belgian, or Italian aircraft. The Luftwaffe will have been very badly damaged. The USAF will go into the fight with the experience of Operation Desert Storm under its belt, but this will not be anything like the kind of experience the Soviets will have gained in the Far East. Qualitatively and quantitatively speaking, the USAF and the SAF will be much more evenly matched in early 1997 than they would have been in early 1995. We should expect the exchange rate to reflect this reality. It may cost the USAF 1,000 aircraft to knock out 1,500 Soviet and Pact aircraft in 1997.

Once the Allies decide to attempt the knock-out blow General Hackett describes in The Third World War and which seems to inform the invasion of Poland, both the loss rate among US aircraft capable of ground attack missions and the demand for those missions will explode. We should bear in mind that the US is on the offensive in Korea and the Middle East during this time. The USAF is going to be deployed forward to the greatest extent possible to support the strategic decision to knock the USSR out of the war in 1997.

At the risk of putting too fine a point on the matter, I find it highly unlikely that there will be hundreds of American combat aircraft left in the United States by Thanksgiving 1997. Like the Army, the Air Force will have pushed almost everything forward, leaving just enough here to mind the store and train replacements. Those air units that remain as of late November 1997 will endure six months of post-apocalypse conditions before the Mexican Army crosses the border in the Southwest in June 1998. It should go without saying that such conditions are not conducive to unit readiness"especially for high-maintenance machinery like modern combat aircraft. While the American Southwest may not be entirely devoid of serviceable aircraft in mid-1998, the air situation probably will much more closely resemble that of the fighting in the Congo over the past couple of decades than that of pre-war American circumstances.

[pmulcahy11b]

49th Armored Division: All Texas National Guard division formed in Texas in November 1996. Oklahoma

In the Twilight 1 and 2.2 timelines, this division already exists, and has existed since WW2. (It was my division when I was in the National Guard, BTW -- A Co 1/141st INF) It was reflagged as the 36th ID (or AD) in the mid 00s.

[RN7]

FYI I was doing some research over lunch and found a very intriguing tank that would fit perfectly in the Mexican Army - ever heard of the X1A and X1A2 light tanks - they were Stuart tanks that were modified by Brazil with a new engine, an improved suspension, new upper hull armor, modern fire controls and a 90 mm gun in a brand new turret - with the X1A2 going even further

and the Brazilians were finally phasing them out right about the time the Mexicans would have been looking for vehicles

And Mexico could also have obtained a couple of battalions of AMX-30 tanks from France. They were a lot better than Stuart tanks and the French were finally phasing them out right about the time the Mexicans would have been looking for vehicles. And the French will sell anything to anybody, excluding nuclear weapons.

[RN7]

In the Twilight 1 and 2.2 timelines, this division already exists, and has existed since WW2. (It was my division when I was in the National Guard, BTW -- A Co 1/141st INF) It was reflagged as the 36th ID (or AD) in the mid 00s.

Just quoting from GDW American Combat Vehicle Handbook Paul. But thanks and the T2K history has it in Oklahoma in 2000.

[Rainbow Six]

Minor piece of trivia that doesn't affect the bigger picture - it is possible that American units in the south western United States might include a small number of (West) German military personnel - the Luftwaffe ran an air defence school for its personnel at Fort Bliss since the 1960's. Presuming all personnel weren't immediately pulled back to Germany at the start of the War (and I see no reason why it should - training would still have to take place) some Luftwaffe personnel might have linked up with US units after Fort Bliss was overrun (the School Brigade is probably the most likely).

(IRL the Luftwaffe also had a permanent presence at Holloman AFB, NM, between 1996 and September this year but that was very much a post Cold War thing so I think unlikely to feature in the V1 timeline)

[RN7]

Minor piece of trivia that doesn't affect the bigger picture - it is possible that American units in the south western United States might include a small number of (West) German military personnel - the Luftwaffe ran an air defence school for its personnel at Fort Bliss since the 1960's. Presuming all personnel weren't immediately pulled back to Germany at the start of the War (and I see no reason why it should - training would still have to take place) some Luftwaffe personnel might have linked up with US units after Fort Bliss was overrun (the School Brigade is probably the most likely).

(IRL the Luftwaffe also had a permanent presence at Holloman AFB, NM, between 1996 and September this year but that was very much a post Cold War thing so I think unlikely to feature in the V1 timeline)

Its possible as there was a German Budesheer unit still listed in Canada with some British Army training units in one of the Canadian variant write-ups.

[Olefin]

The AMX-30 is an idea but again it may come down to the Mexican transport systems - and if NAFTA occurred or not

Keep in mind that much of the improvement in Mexican roads, railroads and airports came about because of NAFTA - which would definitely allow them to better operate heavy tanks and armor

now that's not a big factor once they are in the US with its better roads and rail networks - but it is a factor pre-war - i.e. you dont buy equipment you cant operate in your own country

One of the reasons they went with the lighter armor wasnt just that they didnt expect to fight a foe equipped with heavy armor - it was because their road and rail network would never be able to sustain heavy armor using it

Actually if I had to go with a tank buy for Mexico I would be looking at the AMX-13 - much lighter than than the AMX-30 and perfect for Mexico's road and rail network - and still has a decent punch

and obviously the AMX-13 would fit in with the real life Mexican Army - i.e. the AMX-VCI that they did end up buying is the infantry carrier variant of the AMX-13 tank - so that plays right into the same general tonnage

remember they werent expecting to fight anyone armed with M1A1 tanks - their main foes were countries like Guatemala or Honduras or internal rebels

Also keep in mind who they initially faced - the light divisions and MP units they faced would have had very little in the way of armored vehicles and may have had almost no anti-armor weapons - i.e. by mid 1998 most stateside anti-tank missiles and launchers would probably have long ago been sent to Iran or Korea or Europe or Africa

I would hate to be facing a platoon of AMX-13 or X1A tanks with nothing but possibly a battery of 105mm howitzers to back me up and my heaviest weapon being machine guns

the other reason they may have had such success - if you read up on the 46th it says they were dispersed big time doing stuff like security and disaster relief and supporting food distribution - they may not have even had heavy weapons on them when the Mexicans came storming across the border -

i.e. those 50's and anti-tank weapons and even most of their armored vehicles (because of fuel shortages) that they did have may have been sitting safe back at their base area and not even in place when suddenly it went from distributing food to trying to fight Mexican armored vehicles

[Olefin]

And not having heavy tanks definitely gives them a great reason to bring in Soviet Division Cuba in my opinion - i.e. hey the US is sending in an armored division - we arent equipped to fight them

but Soviet Division Cuba - which is basically a motor rifle division - had heavy armor for sure - and I would like to tie this to what Webstral said - they also had helicopter gunships and fuel for them (i.e. Red Star Lone Star even mentions they are grounded now for lack of fuel) - and there is a good possibility the 49th didnt have any air support or very limited anti-air weapons by the time of the battle with Soviet Division Cuba

I would not want to be the commander of the 49th if that was the case when those gunships started making their runs and all they had was the 50's mounted on the tanks when they ran out of AA missiles