Japan in Twilight 2000

[John Farson]

Hello, long-time lurker, first-time poster!

Something I've wondered about in Twilight 2000 is the situation in Japan after the nuclear exchange. I recall it being said in 2300AD that Japan emerged from the war more or less unscathed and that it was able to rebuild and prosper thanks to its merchant fleet, which was more or less intact. I thought such a concept was BS, because IRL Japan is very dependant on foreign trade and imports of natural resources and raw materials, like oil. According to this site, Japan's food self-sufficiency declined from 73 per cent in 1965 to 40 per cent in 1998. In addition, Japan has the lowest food self-sufficiency ratio among the advanced industrial nations and is the world's largest importer of agricultural products.

In a situation where the Russian/Soviet government faced nuclear distruction, I doubt they'd treat Japan with kid gloves, due to historical (Russo-Japanese War, World War II, historical rivalry of power and influence in the Far East) and geopolitical reasons. Just the concept of "deny critical resources to your enemy" would be sufficient grounds for the Russians to nuke not just the U.S bases in Okinawa and mainland Japan, but also critical strategic, political and industrial targets in order to make sure that the Japanese won't be landing forces in Vladivostok or stuff like that.

For the aforementioned reasons, it is my belief that post-TDM Japan would be the Asian version of Threads UK, i.e. utterly fucked. But I like to know what others here think, since I'm no expert with regards to these things.

BTW, the Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook has this to say about Japan: Fighting over the Kuriles and Sakhalin brought nuclear strikes on Japan in 1997. Japanese industry suffered significant damage and Tokyo is almost destroyed. Martial law hasn't been officially declared, but many areas are ruled de facto by JSDF officers who also possess civilian government posts. All communities are either isolated or independent, though nominally controlled by the government. The major cities have been destroyed, mostly due to social unrest caused by the cessation of world trade and imports.

[kato13]

Welcome Aboard.

[Legbreaker]

Welcome indeed.

Japan as far as I am aware was not a military ally of either side and did not directly take part in the fighting. Obviously it was still effected in some way, and I tend to agree it would have attracted at least a few nukes (I can see Japan being used in a similar manner as it was during the Vietnam and Korean wars, as a rear area for Nato).

With regard to food and other supplies, it's in a fairlly good position. While unable to support itself on the whole, it does have the advantage of being surrounded by sea and therefore much less able to be attacked by land forces. With all possible enemies already engaged in other parts of the world, this is probably less important than the availablity of fishing.

It may also have continued trade with Australia for it's grain and meat, although if it had been nuked, or even after EMP had effectively wiped out anything electronic, I'm not too sure what it would have to trade with. Spare parts to get damaged systems back up and running is possibly the best option, however Japan itself is unlikely to have much in the way of high tech production facilities left.

[John Farson]

Welcome indeed.

Japan as far as I am aware was not a military ally of either side and did not directly take part in the fighting. Obviously it was still effected in some way, and I tend to agree it would have attracted at least a few nukes (I can see Japan being used in a similar manner as it was during the Vietnam and Korean wars, as a rear area for Nato).

With regard to food and other supplies, it's in a fairlly good position. While unable to support itself on the whole, it does have the advantage of being surrounded by sea and therefore much less able to be attacked by land forces. With all possible enemies already engaged in other parts of the world, this is probably less important than the availablity of fishing.

It may also have continued trade with Australia for it's grain and meat, although if it had been nuked, or even after EMP had effectively wiped out anything electronic, I'm not too sure what it would have to trade with. Spare parts to get damaged systems back up and running is possibly the best option, however Japan itself is unlikely to have much in the way of high tech production facilities left.

Thanks.

Good points. I agree that Japan wouldn't have been involved in the actual fighting, since its constitution prohibits it from any aggressive military action (even peacekeeping missions are controversial there). I have my doubts if they would have even tried to grab the Kuriles or Sakhalin, though the US would have no such hang-ups. The Kuriles are important to them, yes, but I don't think they'd be worth inviting a Russian nuclear attack. Therefore, I think any TW2000 fighting occurring around the Kuriles and Sakhalin was between US and allied forces and Russia, with Japan acting as a rear area, like you said.

About food, yes fishing is definitely in the cards. After all seafood, apart from rice, is the Japanese staple food. But with the nuclear attacks, the collapse in international trade and trade routes, the disruption in communications and the collapse of the transportation network I'm not as positive as you that Japan would stave off the worst disaster. True, Japan doesn't face invastion or any of that (what with China glowing in the dark and Siberia imitating the Mad Max flicks), but its worst enemies aren't China and Russia: It's famine, disease and social unrest. Just like the US Norhteast in Howling Wilderness, I can imagine hordes of hungry survivors from Japan's nuked out cities descending onto the countryside like locusts, devouring everything in their path despite staunch attempts by the rural folk to turn them back.

As for trade... well, based on what little I know about Twilight 2000 Asia and Oceania, it seems the only intact states left that Japan can trade with are Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, with organized communities scattered all over the place in the rest of the Pacific Rim with areas of lawlessness in between. All of these places are pretty far from Japan, so any trade venture wouldn't come cheap or easy. Fuel ranging from scarce to non-existant (I guess people would resort to steam or sail ships instead), GPS being a thing of the past, shortage of people who actually know how to sail and navigate etc. Then of course there's the issue of piracy. I imagine that after TDM the world's seas and oceans would have a piracy problem that'd make the one off Somalia look like a piece of cake by comparison. I can see many ordinary fisherman moonlighting as pirates just to make ends meet and feed their families.

And you touched upon the issue of just what would Japan (or rather individual Japanese communities, since central government would be more or less a bad joke at this point) have to trade. Spare parts for damaged systems would be a definite product, but like you said, it'd be unlikely that Japan would be able to produce them in sufficient quantities. Not to mention that the Japanese might prefer to keep them for themselves in the hope of fixing and rebuilding their own equipment. I could see an enterprising local leader or warlord do what the leader of Pittsburgh does in Fallout 3: the Pitt, that is using impressed "workers" to scavenge steel and metal as resources for the reopened steel mills and factories.

[Targan]

Hello John. You've really started posting here with a bang haven't you Good topic for a thread, I like it. I agree that Japan would be a horrible mess by 2000. The fighting in Korea during the Twilight War was fierce, that alone would have resulted in some sort of spill-over effects for Japan. Japan would definitely have been nuked more than canon says.

Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook

[Legbreaker]

Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook

Does anyone This is the one T2K resource that I'd love to have, but due to the language issues, will probably never get.

Japan today is almost certainly overcrowded (just look at their trains), however a few nukes on the major cities should reduce this to a more managable level. Japan in years gone past has managed to feed itself, so provided the population was to drop to say 19th century levels, there shouldn't be too many empty stomachs compared to arible land.

Piracy in SE Asia is a definate problem even now. It's no uncommon for yachts, small boats even the odd larger cargo ship to be boarded. This problem as you point out is only likely to spread as long as there is trade being carried on in the region.

A route from Japan to Australia and New Zealand may avoid these troubles by staying well away from the tropical islands and heading along the Marianas, down to the Solomons, then either Fiji/Tonga if going to New Zealand, or Noumea. Not exactly the quickest of routes, but does avoid the traditionally dangerous waters around Indonesia and the Phillipines. With (sparsely) inhabited islands scattered along the path, navigation shouldn't be too hard provided an accurate compass and maps are on hand.

Sail power will of course be the easiest, however this isn't all that condusive to shifting large cargos of badly needed grain. The good news however is that coal should be readily available in Australia, particuarly in the Woolongong and Newcastle areas (respectively south and north of Sydney about a 100 miles or so). Newcastle also has a good deep water port and a history as an industrial city.

The problem is though that Newcastle, and to a lesser extent Wollongong are probable nuclear targets, primarily because of their coal, steel and ports (they're in my top 6 Australian target list). Another problem is Coal ceased to be a commonly used ship fuel a number of years ago. It would take time to convert diesel powered shipping (if it's even possible), however up until say mid 98 to early 99 I can see the government doing everything it could to keep trade with Japan continuing (Australia will desperately need the electonics to repair EMP damaged infrastructure).

[Targan]

Does anyone This is the one T2K resource that I'd love to have, but due to the language issues, will probably never get.

The reason I asked is because John Farson said this:

BTW, the Finnish Twilight 2000 sourcebook has this to say about Japan: Fighting over the Kuriles and Sakhalin brought nuclear strikes on Japan in 1997. Japanese industry suffered significant damage and Tokyo is almost destroyed. Martial law hasn't been officially declared, but many areas are ruled de facto by JSDF officers who also possess civilian government posts. All communities are either isolated or independent, though nominally controlled by the government. The major cities have been destroyed, mostly due to social unrest caused by the cessation of world trade and imports.

Maybe he speaks Finnish Or maybe he has access to an English translation of the book

[Mohoender]

Hello and welcome

Concerning Japan, that might interest you: http://www.mod.go.jp/e/d_policy/index.html

I agree with what you are saying here and I just want to add one thing. Indeed, I would consider that Japan will be nuked to some extend (US bases and major cities) and I'm convinced that part of the population will die from hunger. However, something else might add to the bad situation there: natural disasters. I have no real knowledge about that but I would expect that the level of nuclear exchange results in an increase of earthquakes, volcano activites and tsunamis.

About its involvement, Japan will probably not send ground troops outside of its borders but the air force might be engaged as far as South Korea and the navy should be involved in accordance to the treaty with US.

The article V of the treaty with US will allow Japan to act, or so I think, as UN has collapsed. Nevertheless, the article 9 of their constitution will prevent them to go too far. Finally, the government interpretation of it and the extend of popular support will modify this as well. For my part, I even consider that the JGSDF is even involved in South Korea as the collapse of South Korea has come to be seen as a direct threat to the very existence of Japan.

Here are what I think to be the important points stated by the government of Japan. The minimum level necessary for self-defense will change greatly under the Twilight War.

B. Requisites for Exercise of Right of Self-Defense.

The use of armed force for the exercise of the right of self-defense under Article 9 of the Constitution is confined to corresponding to the following three requisites:
(i) there is an imminent and illegitimate act of aggression against Japan;
(ii) there is no appropriate means to repel this aggression other than the use of the right of self-defense; and
(iii) the use of armed strength is confined to the minimum level necessary for repelling.

C. Geographical Scope of Exercise of Right of Self-Defense.

The geographical scope of use of the minimum force necessary to defend Japan as the use of self-defense right is not necessarily confined to the Japanese territorial land, sea and airspace. Generally speaking, however, there is no specific definition of how far this geographic area stretches, since it would vary with each individual situation.

It is, however, not permissible constitutionally to dispatch armed troops to foreign territorial land, sea and airspace for the purpose of using military power, as a so-called overseas deployment of troops, since it generally exceeds the minimum level necessary for self-defense.

By the way, if any one knows Japanese, I'll be interested in having a full translation of that website (Ground Forces, as always, have been lazy). Santa is late for me.

[Webstral]

Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral

[Targan]

The last ever T2K mini module published in the final issue of Challenge Magazine (issue 77) was titled The Rocket's Red Glare. It was written by George William Herbert and was the winning entry in Challenge Magazine's Asian Scenario Contest. The Rocket's Red Glare involves MILGOV forces being sent to the island of Tanegashima, about 150km south of Kyushu in Japan, to collect and bring back to the US about 300 Japanese and Chinese space industry engineers and their dependents.

Perhaps it would be permissable for me to post here the PC briefing at the beginning of the module The module also has details about nuke strikes on the steelmaking facilities in and around the Japanese city of Kitakyushu.

[headquarters]

my 2 cents

Welcome to the boards - good thread .

The issue of nuclear hits on Japan has one more dimension for the Soviets in teh T2K timeline imho - wether or not its been mentioned already - Japan is one of the states that think thanks etc consider "capable of going nuclear " within 6 months .

Meaning that given a huge budget by its goverment ,it can amass and deploy resources ,technology and know how to develop and produce a nuclear bomb within 6 months.

For the Sovs not to disable Japan while they have the capacity would be a strategic blunder as far as I see .

That it would happen in the T2K universe is a different matter - the Soviets could just as well threaten Tokyo with obliteration but leave them largely intact to use them as a vassal factory state after its own industry has been crippled by the Yanks.( Thias mentioned as an example out of infinite possibilities).

As for the situation on the ground in T2K JApan I would go with THREADS rather than "unscathed". Japan has reserves od fuel and food for app 6 months as far as I know -enough to weather an increase in tension between China and Taiwan that could block shipping lanes or other major disaster that could disrupt commerce .But a full stop or significant reduction in imports of food would lead to famine and related social unrest etc etc

all imho of course

[General Pain]

Welcome Aboard John

Interesting thread indeed....

Depending on how you or your GM wants to play out The land of the rising sun and the rest of the twillight conflict, they could have increased food/oil storage (spare parts too) in reserve banks and prolly got hold of some nukes too as HQ suggested. Depending on info release from the national government (in regards too the food situation) they could have set up huge LANDCRAB-breeding facilities ( they allready eat bassically anything in asia) and/or other non-conventional food breeding facilites to fight the upcoming famine....

On the other hand they are immensly overcrowded so going back to a more imperialistic feudal and aggresive system where they would even try a sneak attack on their neighbours would also be a possibility ( why loose possible soldiers in famine when you can give them a rifle, a clip, and a frag - put them in a boat and say you are on your own or attack the chineese

PS: I like strange scenarios I know

[headquarters]

yeah

but its not too far fetched to see the Japanese revert to a less peacable constitution and go on a landgrab against China or other areas to get some farmland or other resource.At least not as long as we are talking possibilities in the T2K universe.

And not if the target country is in disarray from the war, or if Japan has taken some hits and the situation could be considered an emergency that would allow leaders to amend or sidestep constitutional law .

In our campaign -Japan has crumbled as a central state and a variety of factions fight eachother for the available resources,mainly driven by hunger and a few mad megalomaniacs that escalate the situation to further their own goals.

One major income source is piracy or in fact conducting large scale raids on coastal areas in neighbouring countries.

a certain General engaged in trading rations for slaves in Japan for a while ,before his blackbirding ways were discovered by MILGOV and he was run out of Osaka with bullets flying everywhere.

Like they were going to share the Japanese market ...

Interesting thread indeed....

Depending on how you or your GM wants to play out The land of the rising sun and the rest of the twillight conflict, they could have increased food/oil storage (spare parts too) in reserve banks and prolly got hold of some nukes too as HQ suggested. Depending on info release from the national government (in regards too the food situation) they could have set up huge LANDCRAB-breeding facilities ( they allready eat bassically anything in asia) and/or other non-conventional food breeding facilites to fight the upcoming famine....

On the other hand they are immensly overcrowded so going back to a more imperialistic feudal and aggresive system where they would even try a sneak attack on their neighbours would also be a possibility ( why loose possible soldiers in famine when you can give them a rifle, a clip, and a frag - put them in a boat and say you are on your own or attack the chineese

PS: I like strange scenarios I know

[Rainbow Six]

Welcome John,

I'd definitely go along with the general view that Japan would have been subjected to multiple nuclear attacks, so would be in a pretty bad state overall.

Cheers

[John Farson]

Thank you for the kind responses.

So it seems that the general view here also is that Japan would have been subjected to heavy nuclear strikes in T2K and would be in dire straits due to the aforementioned reasons (famine, disease, social unrest and collapse etc.).

Japan today is almost certainly overcrowded (just look at their trains), however a few nukes on the major cities should reduce this to a more managable level. Japan in years gone past has managed to feed itself, so provided the population was to drop to say 19th century levels, there shouldn't be too many empty stomachs compared to arible land.

I think you hit the nail on the head there, Legbreaker. From the 18th century through the first half of the 19th century before the Meiji Restoration Japan's population remained steady at about 30 million. So I think this is where Japan's population would ultimately settle at, after the nuclear attack, plagues and famine. Of course, this'd mean that about 95 million or 75% of Japan's 1997 population of 125 million would have perished by 2000 or so, making the US and Canada's death rates of 52 and 45% look absolutely cheerful by comparison And we all now what a lovely place T2K USA is in 2000, Howling Wilderness or no Howling Wilderness.

You're suggestion about the trade routes between Japan and Australia/New Zealand is interesting, and I do think it could be like that, especially to avoid all the Jack Sparrow wannabes. Like you said, though, coal would be an issue, both because of the difficulty in converting ships to coal-powered as well as the possibility that the Russians would have nuked the cities you mentioned because of the coal, which IMHO would be quite likely.

Trade with Thailand would be more difficult and dangerous, I think, because any ships would have to go through the South China Sea, and everyone would know it, including the pirates.

Hello John. You've really started posting here with a bang haven't you Good topic for a thread, I like it. I agree that Japan would be a horrible mess by 2000. The fighting in Korea during the Twilight War was fierce, that alone would have resulted in some sort of spill-over effects for Japan. Japan would definitely have been nuked more than canon says.

Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook

I own a copy of the Finnish Sourcebook, it's in Finnish but it's ok for me because I'm bilingual in Finnish and English and can translate the text, like I did with the bit about Japan. If people like, I can post translated segments of the book. It's just that I'm not sure how the copyright laws work, and am afraid that I might be breaking some laws if I posted them here.

Welcome aboard, John.

Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.

I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!

Webstral

I definitely agree that if the Russians were willing to do that to Canada, a non-nuclear ally of the US with a small population, they certainly wouldn't be merciful towards Japan, which is much bigger and more powerful than Canada, and towards which Russia/USSR would have paranoia because of their past history, as well as Japan's capability to build nukes within 6 months, like headquarters stated.

Oh, I can imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be! Those in the know of Japanese popular culture know how much apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic stories figure in manga in anime. Such examples include Akira, Fist of the North Star, Violence Jack and many others. I can just imagine insanely powerful psychics, muscle-bound martial artists with seven scars engraved onto their chests and 3-meter tall jack-knife toting maniacs running around T2K Japan. Such stories also have plenty of mad, powerhungry warlords, despots and dictators, together with their legions of howling madmen preying on the weak. It's a pity that T2K was discontinued so long ago, since I think a Japan-supplement would have definitely sold. I could imagine Tokyo and the Kantou area being a huge Japanese version of Fallout 3's "Capital Wasteland", without the ghouls and the supermutants, of course.

You'all have definitely posted some interesting ideas.