Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Schone23666]

Well, this is going downhill quick...

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-over-ukraines-crimea-region-200052097.html

Ukraine can't do shit for the moment with Russia now owning the Crimea, and Obama was warning of "grave repercussions" if Putin were to take such actions. Now that he has, Obama is either going to have to put up or shut up.

"Military exercise", my ass, Putin knew exactly what he was going to do from the beginning. It kind of reminds me of that dance number by Mel Brooks from the beginning of "To Be or Not To Be". "All I want is Peace! Peace, peace....a little piece of Poland, a little piece of France!"

[stormlion1]

It does bear a remarkable resemblance to the German invasion of Poland, don't it And the world leaders are going to blink. Be sure of that.

[Schone23666]

It does bear a remarkable resemblance to the German invasion of Poland, don't it And the world leaders are going to blink. Be sure of that.

Of course. History always goes in cycles...

[kato13]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

[Tegyrius]

Going to hell fast. Putin gets parliamentary approval to use Russian troops and BBC now reporting two different units already on the ground. Anyone have update information on what troops are in the area

Per last night's Nightwatch report:

Russian military preparations. On 26 February, a Russian news outlet published the following report to explain the increased military activity in western Russia.

"Warriors of the 31st Air-Assault Brigade have already been deployed to Novorossiysk, and from there they will head out to the Black Sea aboard an amphibious landing ship. Several groups of soldiers will be guarding strategic facilities belonging to Russia. As Rustoria has learned from its own source, for several weeks the guys have been in a state of full combat readiness for deployment to Ukraine. The 'contractors' will be serving there to provide security support until the situation is fully stabilized.

"As an aside, the Ulyanovsk Air-Assault Brigade was included in the make-up of the UN "blue helmets" in April 2013, and acquired the status of peacekeeper. At this time it is the only Airborne Troops formation that is 100-percent manned with contract servicemen

"Previously a separate GRU (Main Military Intelligence Directorate) Special Forces brigade was sent to the Crimea from Tolyatti. In addition, 11,000 landing force troops arrived from Sochi with the Black Sea Fleet squadron.

" Today at two o'clock (on 26 February) the troops of the Western Military District, units stationed on its territory, and the Central Military District's 2nd Army, the Aerospace Defense Command, the Airborne Troops, Long-Range and Military-Transport aviation were suddenly raised on alert. Commander-in-Chief Vladimir Putin ordered a check of the troops' readiness for operations to resolve crisis situations posing a threat to the country's military security, as well as those of an anti-terrorist, medical and epidemiological, and technological character."

- C.

[Schone23666]

Russia is pretty clearly in violation of the Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances if the troops are theirs (i am 99.9% sure they are).

Well, remember how Adolph Hitler viewed the Versailles Treaty: "A mere piece of paper". Treaties and such are just like laws....they are only as effective as the means, AND will to enforce them. Both are key.

The nuclear cat is already out of the bag at this point. Nukes are basically seen as the fast ticket to getting "respect" these days among most, I'd say the addition of a dozen more nuclear armed powers is inevitable...and then Pandora's box gets opened and it all goes downhill. See There's still a chance we'll get to play T2K in real life yet.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

They're ordering troops in. To Ukraine. "To protect Russian citizens."

Jesus christ, it's September 1939 all over again.

Fuck Russia.

[stormlion1]

And I bet Putin will call them Peacekeepers rather than a Invasion Force when the UN starts to make noise. And if the Ruskies say it loud enough and often enough eventually the UN will believe it. Idiots.

[Jason Weiser]

They're ordering troops in. To Ukraine. "To protect Russian citizens."

Jesus christ, it's September 1939 all over again.

Fuck Russia.

Wait a sec, the operation has expanded beyond Crimea Crap...this is going to get fugly. Fast.
This smacks of pre-meditation. It just does. Ivan's had a while to plan this.

Well, CFE is toast people...wanna guess where a lot of our surplus gear is going E very Eastern European nation that can afford it. And maybe some that can't.

[Cdnwolf]

minutes ago

Former presidential adviser David Gergen says there are no indications the United States or European nations would take military action if Russia continues to move into Crimea.

While sanctions would be troublesome to Putin, they would be oesmall potatoes compared to keeping control of Crimea, a region which is historically and militarily tied to Russia, he said.

Gergen also noted that Putin has oesome cards to play in negotiations with the United States. For instance, Obama has worked hard to reduce nuclear threats in the world, including in Iran, and has often enjoyed Putin's cooperation.

Losing that cooperation would hurt Obamas legacy.

oeThose are heavy, heavy, big cards to play, Gergen said.

[stormlion1]

Like I said, Obama will blink. And to keep Putins aid in those regions he will and without US backing the EU will blink. Its all over but the shouting.

[Schone23666]

Like I said, Putin IS Russia. Or should I say, the U.S.S.R.

With the cards Putin has to play, and it's pretty evident no one's going to do anything, I fail to see the "grave consequences" Obama was warning Putin about...just more hot air. Seriously, he and his staff need to know when to speak and when to shut up.

[Cdnwolf]

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

[Targan]

Wait a sec, the operation has expanded beyond Crimea Crap...this is going to get fugly. Fast.
This smacks of pre-meditation. It just does. Ivan's had a while to plan this.

I agree completely. Like I said earlier, Putin was a Colonel in the KGB. He'll have detailed contingency plans for hundreds of situations like that in the Ukraine covering dozens of nations that Russia has an "interest" in.

The situation in Crimea is going in pretty much exactly the direction I thought it would. When the Crimean parliament has its vote at the same time that the Ukraine holds its new presidential election, the Russians will get the political "legitimacy" they seek for their Crimean land grab.

I'm sure there'll be lots of criticism of political leaders in Europe and North America in the coming weeks and months for not taking stronger action against Russia but I think most of it will be for partisan reasons rather than constructive. By taking military action against Russia, any NATO country would be at extreme risk of things spiralling completely out of control. Does anyone here think the principal of protecting the Ukraine's sovereignty is worth kicking off WWIII Actually I think principals like that ARE sometimes worth great sacrifices but the risk/reward ratio seems pretty extreme in this case.

[kato13]

I'm looking at all the angles here and IMO Russia simply annexing part of the Ukraine has too many pitfalls. I am now thinking that Putin is setting up for an agreement from the Ukraine to not join NATO for a period of time, (and to NEVER be the base for an ABM system) and to cede the Black Sea ports for 99 years (similar to agreements that handled Hong Kong and Guantanamo Bay).

Somehow I see Putin getting gains and still coming out of this not bruised at all. No sanctions, no international rebukes and still with influence on Ukrainian Politics (Which he would lose if a large number of ethnic Russians were annexed).