Russia Orders Military Exercise..

[Schone23666]

These so-called "gunmen" that have conveniently seized all the government buildings in the Crimea sound a bit too professional and well-equipped, at least by witness accounts to be just another bunch of pro-Russian street hoodlums. So far they've issued little in way of any demands other than hoisting the Russian flag over the buildings, and one journalist that tried to ask them questions was purportedly answered with a flashbang grenade. Make of that what you will.

Putin is "former" KGB (does anyone REALLY leave any national/state security apparatus) So of course he's schooled in the ways of how the good'ol Soviet Union used to be. With Russia regaining it's footing somewhat, and with him and his personality cult fully entrenched, I can't see why he wouldn't be a bit tempted to recapture those old "glory days". And sad thing is As other posters already commented, there's not a lot anyone else is going to do about it.

To know history, is to know the future...

[Olefin]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here - if he tries to annex the Crimea he is looking at war with the Ukraine. And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

This could get very down and very dirty very fast.

[Rainbow Six]

I think Putin has made a big mistake here

I thin Putin knows exactly what he is doing and how far he can go.

And it wouldnt take much in the way of explosives for the Ukraine to make one hell of an impact on the world and the Soviet Union (especially if the winds are right) by blowing the containment dome at Chernobyl especially if it looks like they want to reintegrate all of the Ukraine.

I think the Ukrainians also know how far they can go.

And its an election year in the US - looking weak and letting Putin get away with it means probable big time losses for the Dems in the fall, maybe big enough to put ObamaCare in jeopardy, especially if he was stupid enough to try to cut the US military with a resurgent Russia invading the Ukraine.

The 2008 Russia - Georgia War took place three months before a US Presidential Election and it didn't make a bit of difference (although I'll grant you the incumbent lost that election)

[Schone23666]

If either side (or god forbid just some idiot) is actually insane enough to blow the lid off of the containment sarcophagus at Chernobyl...

Well, at least we'll finally get a chance to play S.T.A.L.K.E.R. in real life, maybe

Get out of here, S.T.A.L.K.E.R.!

[Olefin]

keep in mind that there is a large Ukranian and Polish (parts of that country used to be part of Poland remember) American community here in the US - plus cutting the military if you see images on TV of Russian tanks invading the Ukraine - great way to see your legacy issue go poof.

plus Georgia is a relatively small country that most people dont have any connection to

and I dont really see the Baltics and Poland seeing anything like that and just sitting on their hands waiting for the hammer to fall on them

dictators have a habit of overreaching (Barbarossa anyone as a great example) - and I think Putin is about to join the club

looks like maybe we need to update that Twilight 2013 timeline for a new start date in March of 2014

[Rainbow Six]

I still think Putin knows exactly what he's doing and where the red lines are that he can't cross. Poland and the Baltic States are full members of the EU and NATO. That's a red line.

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

[Olefin]

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

[Targan]

I do think Putin will try and take the Crimea. And be successful. I don't know if he will try for eastern Ukraine as well. What I've read in the last few days by people who know far more about the situation than I do suggests he probably wont.

I agree. Russia has no interest getting caught up in a long, painful insurgency while trying to hold occupied territory against furiously resentful locals. Afghanistan and Chechnya were both disasters for Russia. Putin was a KGB colonel, imagine what kind of nasty, brutal stuff he got up to during his former career. He's very much a realist, and very sharp. Trying to occupy large parts of the Ukraine along a wide line of control would be messy.

The Crimean Peninsula, on the other hand, is almost already a fait accompli. Putin has huge amounts of support among the ethnic Russian majority in Crimea, Russia has an (albeit dodgy) historical claim, it has huge amounts of military personnel and materiel right there already and Putin has a nice range of (again mostly dodgy) arguments he can put to the rest of the world as to why a Russian intervention would be in everyone's interests.

Another possibility is that the Russians will engineer an incident or incidents which look like the work of Ukrainian nationalist radicals, to give themselves the trigger they need to just flood the area with their military and border guard forces. I think the situation in the Crimea is very fluid right now and I think it could become very dynamic very quickly.

[Rainbow Six]

If he does take the Crimea you can kiss goodbye any US military drawdown - he might as well just make an official announcement that the Cold War is back - and there are a lot of countries that would see a resurgent expansionist Russia as very bad news - this isnt a couple of small areas in a country that barely matters - taking back the Crimea is something that will be a game changer with US relations with them

Don't disagree with any of that.

and if he does then the Ukraine will join NATO for sure - lets see how that helps US Russian relations get even colder

I think the Ukraine had already stated its intention to join NATO and NATO had responded by saying both Ukraine and Georgia would be welcome as members at some unspecified future date

See here from 2008 (Paragraph 23)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-BE92F2F3-B2019D50/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm

And here from 2009 (Paragraph 29)

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_52837.htmmode=pressrelease

So again, don't disagree with you but NATO doesn't seem to be in any great rush over the matter...

[Olefin]

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port

[Rainbow Six]

I agree with you Targan on Putin staging something to give him an excuse

anyone want to lay bets on a Russian warship (something old and expendable) being sunk by "Ukranian terrorists" sometime in the next few days in a Crimean port

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

[Olefin]

I agree that the Russians staging something as a pretext for action is a possibility. I don't think they'd need to go that far though. An attack on one of the approx 13,000 Russian naval personnel based in the Crimea already would probably suffice.

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

[Schone23666]

Putin tends to go for big and showy (i.e. see recent Olympics for context)

At the least it would have to be a big target - maybe a barracks gets blown up or something like that - taking over the Crimea over a couple of people wont do it

but a whole barracks full of Navy personnel, a minesweeper and its crew, etc.. - thats more his style - plus it gives him a nice big state funeral to do his Stalin impression (would be much better if he grew a moustache to go with it)

Meh, he wouldn't need the mustache. He doesn't need to impersonate Stalin when his own personality cult is already firmly entrenched. It doesn't help that we live in an age where celebrities, whether they be politicians, movie stars, self help gurus, etc. are nearly worshipped as messiahs. Look at the cult around the recently deceased Hugo Chavez as one recent example.

Putin basically IS Russia at this point, for better or worse.

[stormlion1]

Actually I could see him using the people who seized those government buildings as a pretext. "going in to aid the oppressed Russian Minority" or "Aiding the Russians attempting to breakaway from an oppressive gov't" as a excuse. And I honestly see it turning into a long drawn out low-key affair rather than a big shooting war. As long as Putin has defacto control he can do what he wants until he can make the claim legitimate with phony elections or even UN Sanctions because Russian Forces are acting as Peacekeepers.

[Cdnwolf]

Going to hell fast. Putin gets parliamentary approval to use Russian troops and BBC now reporting two different units already on the ground. Anyone have update information on what troops are in the area