On this day 25 years ago (Commentary Thread)

[chico20854]

Less than 30 minutes later three warheads detonate over the refinery in Whiting, Indiana, two over the refinery in Lemont, Illinois (on the southwest outer edge of the city's suburbs) and three over the refinery and Army Ammunition Plant in Joliet.

An interesting note on the Lemont Illinois strike. The refinery in Lemont Illinois (near where my uncle and many cousins lived at the time) is listed incorectly in canon as Lemont, Texas. As I dug around, I discovered that there is no Lemont, Texas, and that there is no refinery in or near Lamont, Texas, but there is a quite large one in Lemont, Illinois. I looked back at the 1979 Office of Technology Assessment report the Effects of Nuclear War, that GDW used as the primary source of its target list, and discovered that OTA incorrectly listed it (and the Robinson, IL refinery) as being in Texas.

[castlebravo92]

An interesting note on the Lemont Illinois strike. The refinery in Lemont Illinois (near where my uncle and many cousins lived at the time) is listed incorectly in canon as Lemont, Texas. As I dug around, I discovered that there is no Lemont, Texas, and that there is no refinery in or near Lamont, Texas, but there is a quite large one in Lemont, Illinois. I looked back at the 1979 Office of Technology Assessment report the Effects of Nuclear War, that GDW used as the primary source of its target list, and discovered that OTA incorrectly listed it (and the Robinson, IL refinery) as being in Texas.

I made the same discovery when I was generating my target list and running the casualty calcs!

What's funny is the Robinson, Illinois refinery is prominent in the 194th Armored Brigade bio in Howling Wilderness (on page 17) but they didn't fix the target list on page 11 in the same book.

Of course, this was pre-internet days where you didn't have thousands of random people to point out every typo and error you might have made nor could you just fire up google maps to verify refinery locations.

I need to x-ref my target list with yours Chico.

This is what I have Chicago looking like (note the rings are 5, 2, and 1 PSI respectively).

The Gary / Whiting Indiana attacks (listed as 1.75 MT on Whiting in Howling Wilderness) would have caused pretty extensive damage to Chicago, with fires reaching well into the Hyde Park area, and 2+ PSI structural damage out to around 102nd street East Side. Similar to you, on my target list I just had the Whiting attack as 3x550 kt MIRVs, but I was lazy with Lemont (750 kt) and Joliet (1MT).

[kato13]

December 16, 1997
The GRU assesses that most of the United States' largest refineries have been destroyed, except for a few clusters that remain. Accordingly, the General Staff authorizes an attack on the cluster around Chicago. A single SS-18 from the 59th Missile Division at Kartaly in the southern Urals, containing ten 550-kiloton MIRVs is launched. Less than 30 minutes later three warheads detonate over the refinery in Whiting, Indiana, two over the refinery in Lemont, Illinois (on the southwest outer edge of the city's suburbs) and three over the refinery and Army Ammunition Plant in Joliet. The subsequent blasts wipe out the refineries, damage the ammunition plant and unofficially, start a massive firestorm in the industrial cities of northwestern Indiana. Within minutes the steel mills at Gary and Burns harbor, two of the primary sources of armor-grade steel for American AFV and warship production, are engulfed.

Well it is worth it go get rid of Gary, IN.

[chico20854]

December 17, 1997

At Fort Ritchie, Maryland, Commander Kearny is confirmed as an active-duty Naval officer and assigned to stand watch at the Alternative National Command Center at nearby Site R, Raven Rock.

Unofficially,

The French retaliate for the Soviet strikes on their refineries with the launch of three S3 IRBMs from their silos in southeastern France. Two of the missiles, with 1.2 MT warheads, hit Riga and Kishinev, while the third destroys the massive refinery complex in occupied Ploesti, Romania.

As part of the effort to cut the US off from fuel from its North American neighbors, the USSR intensifies its nuclear attacks on the Western Hemisphere's petroleum industry. Once again the Typhoon-class submarine Barrikada is ordered to launch six missiles at targets at various countries. One missile targets Texas, hitting refneries in El Paso, Borger and Sunray with a trio of 100-kiloton warheads at each (unofficially, the 10th MIRV strikes the large airfield at White Sands Missile Range, which the GRU suspects may harbor dispersed SAC bombers). One missile is aimed at Alberta's oil industry, depositing MIRVs along a 300-kilometer stretch from Edmonton to Calgary.

Two of Barrikada's missiles destroy the PEMEX refineries at Tula, Minatitlan, Cadereyta Jimnez, Salamanca, and Salina Cruz, destroying all of them, killing 260,000 and injuring 350,000 people in the process. The refinery at Ciudad Madero is spared when the guidance system on the warhead malfunctions causing it to explode 20 miles to the south, leaving the refinery intact.

In Colombia both the Barrancabermeja Refinery and the Cartagena Refinery are hit by two 100-kt warheads, causing over a half million casualties, sparking rioting and panic buying that rapidly spirals out of control. The Isla Refinery in Curacao is targeted as well by the Soviets. Newly arrived Patriot missile batteries shoot the 100-kiloton warhead down short of its target. The warhead salvage fuses and detonates, killing over 16,000 people and injuring another 47,000, overwhelming the ability of the hospitals to treat the injured. The magnetic pulse from the warhead detonation takes out power all over the island, completely shutting down the refinery and Hato Airport.

After Washington and Annapolis are hit by nuclear strikes, the Naval Academy is relocated to Newport, Rhode Island, home of the Naval War College and OCS program. With its combat-ready resources already stretched thin, the Navy assigns Coast Guard Commandant HoIsgirder the duty of providing local security and defense for the new Naval Academy. HoIsgirder welcomes the assignment; Newport is a perfect base of operations and very likely to last through the dark ages he sees on the horizon. He begins shifting his assets out of bases on Cape Cod and Maine, and reorganizing them into a full-time fighting force at Newport.

RainbowSix reports that the town of Hereford is destroyed by a Soviet nuclear missile. (Hereford has no major strategic targets, although it was the pre-war home of 22 Special Air Service Regiment, the British Army's Special Forces, however by this time virtually the entire Regiment is deployed on operations worldwide and only a few dozen personnel remain at Hereford, most of whom operate in a support role).

The American carriers Eisenhower and Theodore Roosevelt and their battle groups enter the Vestfjord off central Norway. As their escorts clear the area of enemy submarines, the force prepares to execute a number of nuclear strikes, which launch in the early evening. A ragged mix of F-14s, F/A-18s and F-4 fighters provide escort to the Soviet border for a trio of A-6F medium bombers, EA-6B jammers and KA-6D tankers, which refuel the bombers before turning back. The force overflies Norway, Sweden and Finland before crossing into the USSR, where the bombers split onto separate courses. One bomber attacks the submarine building yards at Severodvinsk while the other two hit a variety of targets in the nearby port city of Arkhangelsk. (The latter city had been targeted by British Tornados in June in the disastrous Operation Gabriel which saw the loss of 15 of the 20 bombers.) Two of the A-6s returned to the carriers, the last one simply disappearing in the Arctic night after dropping its B61 bombs.

SAC is ordered to eliminate the Soviets ability to launch further SS-18 missiles, following the previous day's SS-18 attack that ripped apart massive parts of the Chicago area. Two B-2 bombers, operating from the forward airbase in the Western Chinese desert (which the Soviets still have no idea exists), cross into the USSR and loiter some 150 kilometers away from the surviving SS-18 bases, at Kartaly in the southern Urals and Uzhur in eastern Siberia. Weaving between air defense radars, they each launch ten SRAM-II missiles, set for ground burst with their 200-kiloton warheads, at the regimental and divisional command posts of the 59th and 62nd Missile Divisions, respectively. As each bomber exits Soviet territory (flying across the North Pole, returning to dispersal bases in the Midwest), it expends its remaining six SRAMs against remaining operable SAM sites, air defense radars and air defense garrisons.

The flow of supplies to Soviet forces in the Balkans has slowed to a trickle as disorder convulses the USSR, disrupting production of war materiel and transportation through the Ukraine. Southwestern TVD pleads for more support from STAVKA, but is instead instructed to make do with what they can gather from the comparatively rich and undamaged lands they occupy.

The remnants of the Romanian and Jugoslav militaries (and the US 71st Airborne Brigade and 6th Special Forces Group) continue their active guerrilla campaigns against the Soviet occupiers, gaining valuable supplies in raids and ambushes while simultaneously making the occupiers' logistic situation worse.

TSgt Watson evades a group of LRA rebels seeking him out after his helicopter crashed in rough weather. He is unable to reestablish contact with the squadron's other rescue helicopter, which was sent to locate him.

[chico20854]

December 18, 1997

A New America scouting team scouts the ruins of Blytheville Air Force Base, Arkansas but turns back due to high levels of radiation.

After a brief power struggle, a former longshoreman and small-time hood named Max Graciano assumes control of New York's Harbor Pirates.

Unofficially,

After receiving word from CIA briefers that a Syrian tanker was recently sighted entering the Bosphorus, President Munson authorizes nuclear strikes on Syrian targets. Communications cannot be established with Sixth Fleet or the NATO air base at Incirlik in Turkey from the bunker he is sheltering in (which has less robust equipment than Mount Weather), so the order is executed with a strike by a Trident I SLBM from the USS Henry L Stimson, patrolling west of Spain. The seven MIRVs which function (one fails) strike the refineries at Homs and Baniyas (one warhead each) and the ports and Soviet naval bases at Latakia (two warheads) and Tartus (three).

SAC's systematic dismantlement of the Soviet ICBM force continues with a B-52H sortie over the Arctic. The bomber launches 14 ALCM missiles at the 14th Missile Division at Yoshkar Ola in the Mari El Republic of Russia. Three hours later a dozen of the missiles explode (two failed in flight), destroying the control sites for the division's SS-13 missiles, the division command post and the garrisons for its road-mobile SS-25 ICBMs.

The refineries at Rosemount and St. Paul Park, Minnesota are hit by MIRVs from a SLBM and destroyed.

The small convoy of the destroyer USS Morton, Houston Freedom and Westerbrook arrives off Honolulu, Hawaii. The destroyer pulls into Pearl Harbor for refuelling, while the freighters proceed to the commercial harbor to discharge cargo.

In western East Germany, III Corps' 21st Air Cavalry Combat Brigade is reorganized, taking the remnants of 3rd ACR's aviation squadron and consolidating into a single composite battalion, with attack, lift and assault companies (alongside the usual headquarters and support organizations). Due to the unit's shrunken size, there is an excess of support troops; the Corps G-1 (personnel officer) offers them to other units in the corps. Most are reassigned, although a few (mostly specialized helicopter and avionics technicians) are not needed in the corps, and they are offered to US Army Europe for reassignment.

A clash breaks out in western Siberia when the 156th (my 190th) Motor-Rifle Division, which revolted while on occupation duty in China, is confronted by the riot troopers of the MVD's 180th Separate Motorized Battalion in the Altai Mountains. The MVD troops make skillful use of their few anti-tank weapons (mostly RPG-7s, with a handful of aged AT-3 Sagger ATGMs) in blocking the rebel's progress, but are forced to give way when the full weight of the rebel artillery is brought to bear. Retreating on foot, most of the MVD troops are rounded up by the rebels and offered the choice of execution or joining the 190th in refusing certain death that would result from continuing to follow orders from "Moscow".

[chico20854]

A question for you guys: nuclear attacks on neutral nations. Canon states that in December that both sides target sites in neutral nations to deny them to the enemy. So far I've described Soviet attacks on Mexican, African and French refineries, with Antwerp, Belgium coming soon. The US hit African, Syrian and African refineries. So my question is who else would have been hit and by which side, especially which neutrals the US would hit It seems to me that the Soviets, largely cut off from the sea despite the heavy naval losses on NATO, are in no condition to benefit from oil imports from neutrals, minimizing the potential reason for further US attacks on neutral nations.

[castlebravo92]

A question for you guys: nuclear attacks on neutral nations. Canon states that in December that both sides target sites in neutral nations to deny them to the enemy. So far I've described Soviet attacks on Mexican, African and French refineries, with Antwerp, Belgium coming soon. The US hit African, Syrian and African refineries. So my question is who else would have been hit and by which side, especially which neutrals the US would hit It seems to me that the Soviets, largely cut off from the sea despite the heavy naval losses on NATO, are in no condition to benefit from oil imports from neutrals, minimizing the potential reason for further US attacks on neutral nations.

First off, I think you've done a phenomenal job detailing out the attacks.

This link has a good digital copy of Soviet Military Power 1985 which, among other things, has a map detailing USSR arms transfers, troop deployments, and basing rights for neutral countries.

https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p4013coll11/id/2365/

I think the countries attacked would be the countries neutral but friendly to the USSR.

North and Central America:
Cuba
Nicaragua

South America:
Peru (apparently had Soviet military personnel present in 1985)

Africa:
Cape Verde
Mali
Guinea
Algeria
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Seychelles
Madagascar
Mozambique
Libya

Europe:
Albania

Asia:
Syria
Iraq
Afghanistan
India (but the Pakistan-India war took care of this)
North Korea
Vietnam
Cambodia

Additionally, any countries that were potentially Italy/Greece aligned might get hit also (the only net add there might be Somalia, since Libya and Ethiopia are already covered).

But yeah, the bulk of the nuking of neutral nations would be by the USSR, simply because of access potential or lack thereof. I could see a conspiracy scenario where France nuked some neutrals in late '98 so that it could be the last man standing. By that point in the war, it would basically be impossible to tell who nuked who.

[chico20854]

December 19, 1997

The first arrest for hoarding under the provisions of FEP-D is made.

The Dutch 101st Mechanized Brigade is brought home from Germany, where it had been mainly performing rear area security duties, to the Leeuwarden area to assist Territorial troops with internal security duties.

Unofficially,

With stocks of aviation fuel running low on many dispersal bases and the exchange somewhat settled into a handful of attacks daily, President Munson authorizes a dramatic cutback to SAC's airborne alert posture. The new status will be but four bombers airborne at any time, each with an accompanying tanker, one airborne command post and a single relay aircraft.

A mixture of military and police forces operating out of Nellis Air Force Base attempt to maintain law and order in Clark County, Nevada, but they are unable to prevent the rise of a number of gangs that compete ruthlessly for the remaining consumables.

The Soviets make what will prove to be the final attack an American refinery, hitting Sweeney, Texas with a SS-N-18 from the Delta III-class SSBN K-496. The SLBM is topped with a single 450-kiloton warhead, which incinerates the refinery and much of the surrounding area.

American Pershing II missiles hit more targets in the Western USSR. The strategic early warning radar in Mukachevo, Ukraine is hit, as is the Kharkov tank plant, the Smolensk nuclear power plant and the Lysychansk refinery.

The 1st Battalion, Minnesota Regiment (a state guard unit) is called away from evacuation duties to provide relief following the prior day's refinery strikes outside the Twin Cities.

The headquarters of the Sixth Army, holding out in the Presidio of San Francisco, like other Army headquarters around the nation, determines that it needs more troops to maintain martial law. Unlike, others, however, it has an available force - the 221st MP Brigade in Hawaii.

Rainbow Six reports that the Greater Manchester-Merseyside area has, to date, escaped the 1997 nuclear strikes (although it has suffered from widespread civil disorder, which the authorities struggle to contain). A TA battalion, 5/8 KINGS, is deployed to the Manchester area to quell the serious disorder as rioting mobs fight with the authorities and each other over control of food, water, and other supplies. As the Regional Government implements a dusk to dawn curfew the troops find themselves confronting the mobs with orders to shoot to kill if necessary. A peace returns to the city, but it is an uneasy one, one enforced only by military patrols, by the threat of deadly force. The Battalion takes under command all manner of reinforcements, airmen and women from the RAF, Army cadets, civilian police officers, even traffic wardens. As well as maintaining order they distribute aid to the city's population, although supplies are becoming harder to come by as each week passes. Tent cities spring up outside the barracks.

Lest it be caught in port, the destroyer USS Morton, which was quickly refuelled and took on stores, departs Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, accompanied by the container-barge carrier Harbin Carrier, headed for the Phillippines.

The American frigate USS Klackring sinks after hitting a mine in Vestfjord while protecting the Eisenhower and Roosevelt battle groups. The mine's origin is never established - whether it was a NATO or Soviet mine, freshly laid or left over from the Battle of the Norwegian Sea in December of 1996.

The new, massive containership Susan Mae arrives in New York on its maiden voyage. Upon arrival it rapidly becomes clear that conditions ashore are difficult and that it is extremely unlikely that there are 8,000 containers of cargo ready to be loaded. Wary of the disorder shore, the ship's master anchors in the outer harbor and contacts the Coast Guard for guidance. The Coast Guard responds, urging utmost caution (that there are armed, desperate people in small boats on the water) and advising the ship not to berth.

US Air Forces Africa calls off the search for TSgt Watson. Uknown to his headquarters, he is alive and sheltering in the bush outside a Ugandan village.

[Targan]

December 19, 1997
The Battalion takes under command all manner of reinforcements, airmen and women from the RAF, Army cadets, civilian police officers, even traffic wardens.

Ah yes, the famous image from Threads

[ToughOmbres]

Post TDM updates

All of the recent updates are really well done per usual.

The mostly limited nuclear strikes up to the TDM had already reduced NATO/WP to the level of a "broken back" conflict to me.

On the heels of the TDM the follow up strikes and damage really do seem to be "bouncing the rubble" since much of both sides plus neutrals are largely dysfunctional in terms of economies and government. Grim stuff.

[chico20854]

December 20, 1997

On remote Svalbard, the residents, both Norwegian and Soviet, realize that in order to survive they must set aside national differences and cooperate. The coal mines there are largely dependent on machines to extract the coal, which requires imported petroleum fuel. With supplies cut off by the war, the remaining inhabitants are forced to fall back on their own resources. Some machines are modified to steam power, but most of the coal is mined with hand tools.

A Soviet SS-20 IRBM with three MIRVs attack the Belgian refinery complex in Antwerp. The attack takes out most of Belgium's oil refining capacity.

In France, the overwhelmed border police are increasingly relying on military assistance for dealing with the flood of German, Dutch and Free Polish refugees seeking sanctuary from the war.

Coast Guard Commandant Holsgirder, in Newport, Rhode Island commands only USCG assets that were not operating under the direct command of the US Navy. He and First Maritime Defense District commander Scott MacDowell trade hard words over the movement of Coast Guard ships, crews and equipment from northern New England to the southern New England coastline. MacDowell believes firmly that the fishing fleets are the key to keeping the coastal population of New England from starving and turning into the kinds of rioting masses that had driven him out of Boston. These fleets need Coast Guard protection and succor. Although MacDowell commands a force with US Coast Guard on its uniforms and ships, he is acting under Navy orders. Already, his force has been tapped to provide replacements and to escort Army units (including a recently-raised brigade of New Hampshire Army National Guard troops) to reinforce Europe. MacDowell believes it was necessary to keep every USCG asset possible in northern New England to protect shipping and fishing in the event the Navy decides to move more of MacDowell's assets. Holsgirder flatly disagrees.

In the Vestfjord off Norway's west coast, the Roosevelt and Eisenhower battle groups are visited by their remaining support ship, the USS Detroit. Unfortunately, the ship is less than full, having been unable to obtain a full load of fuel or munitions from the replenishment fleet operating along the GIUK Gap. The available JP-5 will be enough for only five days of defensive operations or three full-scale offensive air strikes, even with the carriers' diminished air wings.

SAC continues its neutralization of the Soviet Strategic Rocket Forces with B-1 strikes on the Svobodnyy and Olovyanneya ICBM complexes. Like other attacks on Soviet missilebases, the B-1s stand off and lob SRAM II missiles from 100 miles off at command posts, with each 200-kiloton warhead set for ground burst to ensure the destruction of the buried installations. On their exit they expend remaining missiles on air defense, transportation and industrial targets.

The 156th (my 190th) Motor-Rifle Division arrives in the industrial, transportation and agricultural center of Barnaul in Western Siberia. The city government, with an overwhelmed MVD detachment struggling to maintain order among a panicked population fearful of American nuclear bombs arriving at any moment, abdicates to the rebel formation rather than see the city suffer any further damage and destruction in a battle it knows it cannot win.

TSgt Watson slips past a LRA patrol in rural Uganda as he moves toward the Kenyan border.

[chico20854]

Ah yes, the famous image from Threads

While RainbowSix gets the credit for that, I appreciate any chance to pay tribute to the great masters!

[chico20854]

All of the recent updates are really well done per usual.

The mostly limited nuclear strikes up to the TDM had already reduced NATO/WP to the level of a "broken back" conflict to me.

On the heels of the TDM the follow up strikes and damage really do seem to be "bouncing the rubble" since much of both sides plus neutrals are largely dysfunctional in terms of economies and government. Grim stuff.

Over the next few weeks you'll start getting a much reduced optempo as the collapse of the war economies impact operations.

[chico20854]

December 21, 1997

Nothing in canon for the day.

On the first day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere it is not only sunlight that is in short supply. As the nuclear attacks continue, the world trading and transportation systems have almost entirely shut down, leading to massive shortages of food, fuel and other necessities of lie. While food stocks exist, thanks to the bountiful harvest of the fall, moving the food to the population without petroleum is a nearly insurmountable challenge for the remnants of national governments.

In Paramus, New Jersey the 42nd Infantry Division makes its first arrest for hoarding food. Tony DiBello, owner of a small grocery wholesaler, refuses to sell his remaining stock to the military at the price established by 1st Army under the provisions of martial law (twice the price in effect on November 15), demanding five times the price. After he is arrested, troops sieze his entire inventory and allocate half of it to feeding centers and the other half is transported back to the local national guard armory that the battalion is operating from for the unit's cooks to prepare for the troops.

The Belgian government rallies all available security and emergency forces to provide relief in Antwerp following the attack on Antwerp. The interior minister reaches out to his French counterpart for assistance.

Soviet missiles rain down on petroleum and command and control targets in Ontario and Quebec. The national capital of Ottawa is blanketed with MIRVs from a SLBM.

An American Minuteman II missile strikes the Soviet refinery complex in Nizhnekamsk, and another destroys the massive Kama River Truck Plant at nearby Naberezhnye Chelny.

The new Danish containership Susan Mae, at anchor in New York's outer harbor awaiting cargo, is boarded by six armed men from a motorboat. The men rob the crew of cash, electronics and food from the galley but are disappointed to discover that the ship does not have any cargo aboard.

RainbowSix reports that most survivors of the strikes in South Wales head north into rural Wales or east across the border into South West England. Refugees fleeing the chaos of South Wales cause large scale upheaval in Mid Wales as many small towns and villages are swamped by the desperate hordes. Some refugees are integrated into the local communities but many locals oppose the influx and form armed groups in resistance against them.

The commanding officer of the 156th (my 190th) Motor-Rifle Division, the former deputy commander of the division's 53rd Reconnaissance Battalion, appears in public alongside the city's Communist Party chief to declare that the city is in safe hands. The division's troops spread out throughout the city, establishing small garrisons in most neighborhoods. The 190th's logistics officers are overjoyed by the seizure of the city's small arms ammunition factory, which yields over a million rounds for the division's guns. They are even more pleased by the capture of the intact Transmash plant, which has been turning out T-74s since early 1996. There are only a few complete tanks present, but plenty of parts to maintain them and several dozen in various stages of construction.

[Rainbow Six]

While RainbowSix gets the credit for that, I appreciate any chance to pay tribute to the great masters!

Yeah, that line was absolutely inspired by Threads.

I actually rewatched Threads a few months ago (it's currently on the BritBox streaming service). I think it's the first time I've watched it sine the original broadcast. I'd forgotten quite how bleak and harrowing it is.